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Rothenberg moves CD10 to “Pure Toss-Up” partly because of Quinn

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* Stu Rothenberg has moved the 10th CD from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up…

IL 10 (Schneider, D). Brad Schneider squeaked out a win over Republican incumbent Bob Dold by just over a percentage point (fewer than 3,500 votes) in 2012. Now, Dold has a re-match, figuring that in an off-year, and without President Obama on the ballot, he has a better chance to win. Dold ran a strong race before and he appears to have a small advantage right now. Democrats have reason to worry about that Democratic Governor Pat Quinn will meltdown outside of Chicago and affect the party’s chances in House races. This contest should be very close once again and we’re moving it from Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up

It’s tough to beat an incumbent, as evidenced by Schneider barely eking out a win against a Republican freshman in a huge Democratic year. This will obviously not be a huge Democratic year. And Quinn is under-performing most of the rest of the ticket pretty much everywhere else. He could turn out to be a significant drag.

Your thoughts on this race?

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:35 pm

Comments

“It’s a ‘North Shore’ thing” I kept hearing last go-round.

Remember the “paint” Ad, probably the most misunderstood Ad of the cycle, but was explained as “North Shore” perfect.

As much as that “area” is fiercely independent, the dropping of Quinn may or may not, of all the CDs in play, be a measurable factor if those two candidates keep everything close to home base, and make it all about the 10th.

Either that district IS fiercely independent or it isn’t. This time we may find that out best(?)

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:44 pm
I’m interested to see Schneider’s spots. I thought his “paint” couple was the best spot of the cycle, by far, the last time out. A real home run. I wonder if they’ll be back?

And I was mesmerized by his LBJ Medicare spot. I don’t know who or how someone came up with the idea that running a clip of LBJ talking about Medicare was a winner on the North Shore, but I couldn’t take my eyes off of it.

I saw it a couple of times in a tavern and the whole place went silent when it came on. Real stopping power.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:44 pm
Democratic voter apathy will impact most Democratic candidates throughout the state. Not necessarily solely a Quinn thing. More of national issue. Even Dick Durbin is only polling at 51% in his race.

Comment by Apocolypse Now Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:47 pm
IMO- it has more or as much to do with the President as it is a Quinn association- Brad S has tied himself to the most liberal wing of the DNC- It hasn’t played well up here with what has always been a centrist District

Comment by Sue Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:52 pm
Coat tails run both ways.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:53 pm
The thing to watch is : the outside money coming showing up in the last 60 days.

Comment by Steve Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 1:53 pm
Schneider is even less compelling personally than Dold, but Tenth Dems is a great group and adds real energy for the incumbent.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:13 pm
I’d like to see polling about whether Quinn is pulling down any of the State House races.

Comment by DuPage Bard Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:20 pm
(Sigh)
It has been a bad year so far for incumbents. There is only so much crap voters are going to take. We aren’t seeing an economic rebound effecting the general voter malaise which seems stuck on negative. There hasn’t been much to cheer about domestically, nationally or internationally.

I suggest all incumbents to hold onto dear life three months from now and take any win they can.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:21 pm
I have a hunch we’ll see more of this around the Northeast Illinois area and maybe in Central Illinois too. It’s hard to evaluate just how frustrated people are with Pat Quinn. Could help in as many as 4 of these Congressional races.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:28 pm
Quinn won despite himself and he may lose despite himself.

Comment by Bogart Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:39 pm
Schneider’s win was pure Obama coattails. Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts. There is very little chance that such a high turnout will occur in those precincts. That is the primary reason Stu says Dold has “a small advantage right now.”

Additionally, Dold has kept pace in fundraising, has not stopped campaigning, and retains very high name ID and favorables, and has been laser focused on ground game (where he lost last time). Schenider has been virtually invisible with almost no earned media and no presence in the district.

Outside money will be huge and the edge in that category is likely to go to Schneider, but Dold will also get a fair share of IE dough.

Comment by Adam Smith Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:53 pm
=== It’s tough to beat an incumbent ===

I bet if you were to poll IL-10 voters and ask them who the incumbent is, Schneider or Dold, a good chunk would pick Dold.

Comment by Just Observing Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 2:55 pm
===Schneider’s win was pure Obama coattails. Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts. There is very little chance that such a high turnout will occur in those precincts. That is the primary reason Stu says Dold has “a small advantage right now.”===

We are told time and time again the 10th is fiercely independent.

What, it’s “independent” if you win, and “partisan” when you lose?

Which 4?

Callis/Davis? That is more about students and off year.

Schneider/Dold? While making it “toss-up” that district is about Indies of the North Shore bent, and finding that sweet spot.

Enyart/Bost? That might be more about mixing a national narrative to District concerns more than any race in Illinois. Example? Scott AFB.

Foster/Senger? This could be most effected by Quinn/Rauner, but have to believe Foster would want it to be more Durbin/Oberweis and Foster getting chummy with Durbin more than Quinn.

That leaves Bustos, and the Quad Cities and the financial advantages.

The 5 are on their own, no help from Quinn or Rauner, and let’s be very clear; Rauner has shown no Ground Game for himself, let alone anyone else. Rauner is counting on others to carry him, not the reverse.

Callis/Davis and Schneider/Dold are your Tier 1 races.

They are.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:19 pm
Those who say gerrymandering has no real world impact haven’t watched this district - for all it’s alleged “fierce independence” it hasn’t gone Democrat since Mikva and only close a couple of times. The problem Schneider is going to have is 1) he has acted like a zombie for the past two years and 2) a lot of key Democrat issues don’t resonate strongly in his district outside of Waukegan and a couple of other pockets. Dold has done a good job portraying himself as a moderate when really he’s just “not pure Tea Party” - if I were Schneider I’d go negative fast.

Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:39 pm
Schneider has tied himself exclusively to Obama’s policies much, much more than one would have expected. In representing the tenth the way to prove you’re independent and thinking for and about all your constituents–not just parroting your party’s line– is to vote against your party’s position sometimes, and be really obvious about it. Porter knew that, and Kirk knew that.

Comment by Responsa Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 3:48 pm
The ACA will be a big issue for Schneider with all of the pre-medicare retirees on the North Shore- The ACA may be great for the subsidy eligible population but if you retired early, aren’t low income and bought your own insurance, Obama Care is costing you a fortune. Schneider caught lots of grief over people losing their pre ACA coverage and can thank this issue if he tanks in November

Comment by Sue Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 4:29 pm
I have spoken to a number of men and women in the Laura Fine district this summer who have said they will be supporting Rauner after supporting Quinn four years ago however those same folks have told me they will be supporting Laura. I don’t think he will be a drag on most House candidates on North Shore but he certainly won’t be any help. These people know Madigan and Cullerton will stay in control so they know the only possible change that can happen is at the top and of course Rauner being from North Shore increases their comfort level as opposed to Brady four years ago

Comment by E town Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 4:59 pm
@ Sue “Brad S has tied himself to the most liberal wing of the DNC- It hasn’t played well up here with what has always been a centrist District”

LOL. Liberals complain Schneider is too conservative. Heck, they complain Obama is too conservative.

“Most liberal wing?” Whatevs.

@ Adam Smith “Increased turnout in heavily Dem precincts.”

You might want to re-read those 2012 vote tallies Adam.

And - “Schenider [sic] has been virtually invisible with almost no earned media and no presence in the district.”

And yet there are regular articles about Schneider visiting local businesses and talking with voters in different parts of the district.

Again, whatevs.

JO - “I bet if you were to poll IL-10 voters and ask them who the incumbent is, Schneider or Dold, a good chunk would pick Dold.”

I’ll take that bet because they’d more than likely pick Kirk.

Dold’s name ID is as low as Schneider’s.

Comment by A. Nonymous Monday, Jul 21, 14 @ 6:45 pm
Summing up this race.

1. Dold is his campaign’s greatest asset. Put him in front of anyone and it would be difficult not to like him. Schneider is awkward and full of himself. In the district he is a recluse.

2. Field, Schneider’s okay here. He is doing a lot of voter registration, recording their addresses and emails and then trying to turn out those voters. Bob’s field game is incredible though. They have shown up everywhere, recently capping off with a week long Bus Tour. Their strategy is a lot of door knocking and really becoming apart of the community. They crush their numbers and are creative.

3. Check for Brad, he is the incumbent. Dold is on his heels though 1.6 vs 1.9 million I think.

4. Intangibles? Quinn/ACA is unpopular. The state is last in job creation. This is not the year to be a progressive democrat (incumbent). Brad hasn’t done much at all in Congress (supporting only one budget, a Paul Ryan one!) and has a very difficult job of relating to IL10 voters. It’s a more blue collar district now, and not only can he not relate, but he doesn’t have the answers for IL10 voters.

This is too close for a D+8. Schneider is a weak candidate and Bob is his campaign’s greatest asset. The more people he sees, the more likely he will win. And I think he will.

Comment by ANON Tuesday, Jul 22, 14 @ 12:16 am