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A walk down short-term memory lane from the New York Times:
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 8:12 am
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Maybe now with JBT getting on TV & other media & apparently the campaign coming alive a little will narrow the gap. Maybe she can really start addressing issues in a public forum & tell what she’s about. Tells you maybe they {the electorate}are worried about our “leader” perhaps a little uncertain…all this talk of indictments ect. Lot’s of un-decideds. Her numbers haven’t varied that much so Bladgo hasn’t accomplished the task of defining her ….people just don’t know her. Bladgo’s numbers not breaking 50 % 62 days from election day is not a good thing for any candidate…not an inch of traction forward in these past months & millions $$ spent. I heard from people I know, who would know, that in some districts in southern illinois he’s polling in the 30’s. It’s anyone’s guess.
Comment by annon. Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 6:08 am
Rod has held a consistent lead through Labor Day, now there are some that hope that with Judy getting on air she will close the gap. That is a possibility, but no one should forget that the campaign (on both sides) starts in earnest after Labor Day. Do any of you think Rod has used his best stuff yet? Doubtful. Judy has not run a campaign as of yet and Rod has just stayed out in front with his media buys. No that she is speaking up more and spending ad dollars I expect Rod to turn up his machine. He now actually has an opponent and he is at his best on the campaign trail. It should get interesting and now that Judy is on air and making noise I expect Rod to respond accordingly and increase the gap.
Comment by wndycty Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 6:13 am
Interesting to see what George Ryan’s sentencing will do: remind people of corruption in government (and all those inquiries into current administration) or remind people of JBT’s long-time alliance with Mr. Ryan. Money can’t buy publicity like this!
Comment by Troy News Guy Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 6:25 am
Let’s see
Media dumps on Rod all summer (some deserved some just hyperventilation because they all gave Edgar and Ryan the big passapalooza)
Judy Bore zonks with Zoo tales and gives us Gaming+ as a “budget plan”
Dog walks
Conclusion: GRod will widen the gap
Wonder if the dog factor was considered for the NYT research. How many turns have Trib pollsters skipped now? Two?
Comment by Reddbyrd Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 6:28 am
Judy has come off the bench and is ready to run circles around King Rod.
As 6:08 wrote, he “hasn’t accomplished the task of defining her”. Topinka has now begun telling people who she is and what she stands for. She will also tell people who he is, the damage he has done to generations Illinois citizens and that he stands for only himself.
Blagoids have very good reasons to be very, very nervous.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 6:33 am
Red, quit writing in code.
JBT will talk about the bbbbbbillions of dollars in loans Rod took that will severely damage future generations. She will talk about how veterans have been thoroughly screwed by Rod while Pat Quinn just sat there and did nothing to stop it. Corruption in hiring and appointments? I can see a woman holding a baby at a committee hearing, not paying attention, then voting “Rod’s way”.
There is so much corruption and so much selfishness by Ol’ Blah Blah that JBT can show to the citizens. Where will she start?
She will also show herself to be much more ‘human’, a real person, not a pre-programmed machine who cannot function without a script.
I can’t wait!!
Comment by Hello, Judy! Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 6:52 am
Wyndycty: The reason Rod has so much media money to spend is that he is using your tax dollar and mine to send on campaign literature disguised as AllKids, Vet Care, SaveRX, yadda, yadda, yadda informational printing to millions of people in Illinois. He is using the budgets of state printshops to do this, as well as using their postage accounts to pay for it, while healthcare providers have to wait in line for forms they need for their patients. What a stand-up guy you’re defending.
Comment by Disgusted Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 7:10 am
to send out, not “on.” oops.
Comment by Disgusted Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 7:11 am
From all the squaeling that been on here for the last 2 days from these Blagomaniacs I would say that JBT is hitting them where it hurts.HOMERUN FOR JUDY.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 7:31 am
Definitely a trend there, Rich. I think the “missing” 20 percent in all of those polls is the “clothespin vote”. There is no “undecided” column on the ballot, though. At some point people have to make up their minds. Whoever wins, I expect to see a lot of clothespins on a lot of noses. Mine included.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 7:42 am
Making no sense as usual Reddbyrd.
Comment by Rob Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 7:57 am
The Governor’s base is the Chicagoland area, where people don’t care that much about state government; it’s not a big part of their every day lives (local government is much bigger, particularly in Chicago). Plus, they’re Democrats anywhere. So they’ll see the Governor’s feel-good ads, they won’t be reading Finke and Chambers and the other columnists who hate him, and they’ll vote for him.
Downstate, where state government is comparatively more important, he should get crushed, but the question is whether Topinka has the resources to do the job right. There have been signs of life, but the fact that her numbers have hit a plateau (despite the relentlessly negative press the Governor has gotten) is a bad sign. She’s not going to have enough TV money to make a real dent in the Chicagoland area, and she’s going to win central Illinois regardless; the question is whether she can mobilize enough downstate turnout to close the gap, and the answer, given her resources and her positions on certain issues, is probably no.
Comment by Gus Frerotte's Clipboard Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 8:28 am
Research 2006 (Nov.
Topinka 51%
Blagojevich 46%
Whitney 3%
Comment by Justice Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 8:37 am
I think the race is now pretty safe for Blago without something huge. Rich Whitney was the breaker. I know the dems wanted him off the ballot (and so did I), but I think disgusted Dem votes will now go to Whitney instead of Topinka. But… there is still hope for the GOP in the treasurer’s race… but this is a pretty bad year to be a Republican, even though Rod Blagojevich is… well… Rod Blagojevich….
Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 8:40 am
Topinka’s inability to get above 40% would seem to be the more serious ceiling.
And the clownish “Who let the dogs out” ad released today is hardly going to convince people that Topinka is a serious alternative to Blago.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 9:07 am
Now that I have seen the ad that JBT is responsible for the budget deficits under Ryan (after all, she was the treasurer), the choice is easy, Hot Rod it is.
Comment by Crockett Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 9:19 am
In 2002, Blagojevich barely beat Ryan after being much further ahead in the polls. This was when Blagojevich looked promising, not tainted. This was when we had another Ryan as Governor making corruption headlines. This was when Blagojevich spoke to his father in law, running the show in Cook county.
Blagojevich spent the last four years milking the system at the tune of $2200 a hour because he knew that even if he proved to be a good governor, he’s have a campaign fight to the finish.
That is proving to be true. Blagojevich is spending like the drunken sailor he claims state legislators are. He started running negative ads in March. He has used his office to fund state re-election programs funded by taxpayers, and has doled out pork to every little interest group he needs.
But his poll numbers still do not rise. Even without an opponent attacking him on TV, he is stuck with 52% negatives. Now that Topinka has finally hit the air and has started hitting back, that 47% will start looking pretty good.
Whitney and Topinka will get their share at Blagojevich’s expense. If he only has 47% without them, then he has nowhere to go but down now that the campaign has started.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:11 am
The most interesting question in the governor’s race is, will Whitney break 5%?
Maybe some enterprising journalist will write an article on the significance of a minor party candidate breaking 5%.
It might require cracking a book and interviewing some sources other than the usual suspects. But maybe it will happen.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:16 am
Rich Whitney 3-6%
JBT 43-46%
RB 49-53%
I still think Topinka’s best hope is to pump up Whitney’s numbers among liberals while hoping he doesn’t cut into reform voters that would prefer her over Blagojevich.
Whitney 8-11%
JBT 43-46%
RB 44-47%
She’ll still probably lose, but it’s something realistic to shoot for.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:24 am
Oh, and one more thing. Ryan’s conviction and sentencing will NOT help Blagojevich. Instead, what it does is highlight once again how a governor can be corrupted and jailed. Voters are not as partisan as we are. They will focus more on the story of more government corruption in Illinois. Then they will look closer at Blagojevich and his troubles and see a repeat.
I mentioned this a long while back; if corruption is the issue, any incumbant looks bad regardless of party. In Blagojevich’s case it looks worst due to the ongoing political scandals and fraud investigations in the news.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:36 am
Crokett nice try Blago Boy but we all know the lawmakers say where the money gets spent and the Governor signs off on it.Unless you are Blago the little dictator and then you go behind the lawmakers back and spend like a drunken sailor.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:45 am
The New York Times ommitted Rich Whitney. Here’s the real data:
Research 2000 (Aug. 28-31)
Blagojevich: 47%
Topinka: 39%
Whitney: 2%
Considering the margin of error, Whitney’s actual percentage may actually be as high as 5.5% if the entire population were sampled.
Here’s some more very interesting data:
Blagojevich:
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 45%
No Opinion: 9%
Topinka:
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 44%
No Opinion: 10%
Whitney:
Favorable: 8%
Unfavorable: 3%
No Opinion: 89%
If we exclude the people with no opinion, only counting the ones who are actually familiar with each candidate, here are the percentages:
Blagojevich:
Favorable: 50.55%
Unfavorable: 49.45%
Topinka:
Favorable: 51.11%
Unfavorable: 48.89%
Whitney:
Favorable: 72.73%
Unfavorable: 27.27%
Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 11:40 am
Topinka’s folks think that her “doggie” ad won’t reinforce the widening “crazy lady” perception of her? I don’t think so…. Elvis beats Crazy Lady any day; the undecided 11-20% just stay home…
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 11:46 am
Golly gee whiz. That Topinka ad sure has drawn a lot of nasty comments today. Must have touched some nerves.
Let the Blago “machine” crank out more ads which are only the distortion of the truth and present failed/non-implemented Rod programs. It will only take a few good commercials from Topinka to torch Rod’s socialist, money sucking “for the people” programs.
Comment by Buck Flagojevich Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 1:37 pm
So Downstate, are you saying that the ad is bogus? Next you are going to tell me that JBT doesn’t actually oppose health care for kids and vets? I’m pretty sure she has taken the position that only non-vets and adults should have access to health care, didn’t she?
All tongue in cheek, like the first post too.
Comment by Crockett Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 1:45 pm
We’re at war with terrorists at the national level, but Rod is appointing top aides to the head bigot of the Nation of Islam to his panel on hate crimes? Minister Bigot once went on a global tour to visit all of the dictators of the world. I’m sorry, but even Democrats shouldn’t vote for Blagojevich. All he has going for him is his blowdry job. On security issues, he just sounds like an irresponsible dolt.
Comment by Angie Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 2:04 pm
We’re at war with terrorists at the national level, but Rod is appointing top aides to the head bigot of the Nation of Islam to his panel on hate crimes? -Angie
Explain how the hell the war on terror has anything to do with that? Baseless scare tactics.
Judy’s ad was decent. It isn’t an out of the park home run, but it is decidedly different than the negative ‘what is she thinking’ tact Rod took. I’m not sure this ad changes any votes or makes up anyone’s mind, though.
Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 2:19 pm
VanillaMan is dead on.
Any attempt to portray the current status of the polls as positive for Blagojevich is either delusional or just spinning. Even if you think there is reason to be optimistic about the fall, you can’t deny that the spring/summer strategy was a dismal failure. Wasn’t the idea (borrowed from the Clinton playbook) to pound down the opponent’s numbers early and create a widening gap that gave the aura of inevitability? Has that happened?
Six months…..millions in unanswered ads…..millions in new entitlement programs….a bloody primary stretch for his opponent….and for a net gain of ZERO. He gained only as many percentage points as she did. That’s just flat out embarrassing.
Comment by grand old partisan Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 2:26 pm
I don’t get you Blago supporters. Are you so blinded by party loyalty that you dismiss the damage this guy has done and will continue to do to the state of Illinois if reelected? He has put this state in hock for decades with all the new programs he has created that we cannot afford and borrowing money from the pension fund and a multitude of others. Taxpayers will be left holding the bag for decades to come. Illinois currently has the highest debt liability in the nation. Where will we be after another 4 years of this madness. Granted George Ryan left a big debt upon leaving office, but Blago has more than tripled the debt in 3 1/2 years. I am not saying JBT is the answer, but at least she has a clue about budgeting and spending money that is not available.
Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 2:36 pm
Any Republican who claims Blago is a disaster, but can’t bring himself to criticize Bush has zero credibility.
Show me a Republican who says Bush and Hastert are screw-ups and then I’ll listen to his arguments against Blagojevich. Otherwise it’s just standard GOP partisanship.
How can you criticize Blagojevich’s deficit spending without acknowledging Bush has been far worse at the federal level?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 2:46 pm
And any Republican whining about Dems being reflexively partisan can pack sand. It’s the way the country has been run by the GOP since Bush took office.
Finding it hard to reach moderate pro-choice Democrats? Reap what you sow….
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 2:47 pm
To Carl Nyberg,
My post had nothing to do with George Bush. It was about the fiscal mismanagement of state resources by the current governor. If you want to bash Bush go to another blog about that topic and have at it.
Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 2:58 pm
Hey Rod’s doing great so quit picking on him. He’s the best governor this nation has ever laid eyes upon. See the golden aura surrounding him? Let’s all do the Blago mantra.
So what if he’s spent the better part of a year and untold millions of dollars attempting to tear down his opponent to no effect. Who cares if his poll numbers have remained stagnant this entire time? So what if Topinka hasn’t had to spend on single dime up to this point and her number have remained steady as well not a single point drop in spite of our best efforts. Blago is still our idol and we will follow him and his haribrush to the ends of the earth. We do not care if we’re used by him for his own selfish purposes for we adore him.
Comment by Blago Poll Spinsters Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 3:02 pm
“How can you criticize Blagojevich’s deficit spending without acknowledging Bush has been far worse at the federal level?â€
Easy – The federal government has almost always deficit spent, especially during wartime and recessions, while the state is not supposed to, by law. Bush entered office on a recession (that his economic policies have helped end), but we are still at war.
Also, there is a difference between the debt. Bush has basically run up the credit card bill, while Blagojevich has “borrowed†money from the kid’s college fund, so to speak.
Comment by grand old partisan Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 4:12 pm
Blagojevich Topinka Blagojevich Topinka…
Only about 51% of voters who have an opinion are favorable to either one! On the other hand, 73% are favorable toward Rich Whitney.
I guess another way to say this might be, a high percentage of those asked were familiar with Blagojevich and Topinka, and nearly half viewed them unfavorably; however, Rich Whitney was looked upon favorably by about 22% more of those familiar with him, percentage-wise.
Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 4:36 pm
Crokett I am saying you are using vague accusations in order to try and swing votes. Actually all of the people on here have pretty well made up their minds.Also you need to do a little more study on how the finances of state government work.Yoy need to statr in the legislature to approve a spending bill.Why don’t you find that piece on her opposing things and give us the web site where it is and we will go read it for uorselves.If it is true then it can be found on the computer.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 4:47 pm
Let’s see, Crockett, whom should we believe? The redhead and her cute dogs who states some home truths that everyone, including the feds, knows about OR a cromagnon Alfred E. Newman look-alike who spins and lies through his ads, and doesn’t know if he’s up to his a– in corn or soybeans. Duh!
Comment by Disgusted Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 6:09 pm
To Carl Nyberg,
The debate between federal and state budgeting is literally comparing apples to oranges. The federal government prints money and issues treasury bonds to incur debt. The state must borrow money just like any other person, business, or local government. It is up for argument, but post 9/11, some say we HAD to deficit spend in order to pump up an economy which was devastated by historic financial uncertainty while in the middle of a recession!! Its called Keynesian economics.
Like I said, the validity of the theory is up for deate, but what isn’t up for debate is the fact that state government CANNOT engage in deficit spending to inflate economies. Rather, we just incur debt so Blago can get reelected.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 7:09 pm
I give up. I must be way less clever and/or funny than I think I am. Downstate and Disgusted- tongue in cheek = joke. References were to ridiculous Blajomercials running on NBC. Sigh.
Comment by Crockett Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 7:56 pm
Crockett,
Don’t feel bad. I too have noticed many of the posters on here are quite myopic. They are only interested in what they have to say. It seems like they don’t even bother to read any other post, which I find, well, foolish. These people only pop their heads out of their holes long enough to burp forth their rote rhetoric, but not long enough to ponder others points of view.
That’s my opinion, so I may be slightly wrong.
Comment by Buck Flagojevich Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 9:05 pm
Right on, Buck. Those folks are the blogospheric equivalent of robocalls. Drives me crazy, especially when their posts are almost incomprehensible. (e.g. the 6:28 amer today)
On the other hand, every now and then, a real gem or two gets served up. Take “Disgusted’s” last post wherein he describes the Current Occupant as “a cromagnon Alfred E. Newman (sic) look-alike who spins and lies through his ads, and doesn’t know if he’s up to his a– in corn or soybeans.”
You just don’t come up with those in a heartbeat.
Comment by NumbersGuy Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:11 pm
I want to know where GoverNOT Hairdo’s press release of the day is? Can’t imagine he’s lost for words.
Comment by Little Egypt Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 11:04 pm