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* A new poll from We Ask America has Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka leading Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon by 20 points, 51.4 to 31.5, with the Libertarian Party candidate receiving 8 percent. A July 31st poll had JBT’s lead at 19 points, without including the Libertarian Party candidate.
From Reboot…
The best news for Topinka came in one of the few categories where she trailed Simon, the daughter of Illinois Democratic icon Paul Simon. While Simon led Topinka by nearly 9 points among Chicago voters, Topinka was the choice for 34 percent of respondents in Chicago. A Republican candidate who can win 20 percent of the vote in Chicago has a strong chance of winning statewide.
“Despite the Libertarian candidate’s relatively strong performance, incumbent Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka continues to distance herself from Democrat Sheila Simon,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “If Topinka’s extraordinary strength in Chicago holds, it will be tough for Simon to close the gap.” […]
The Sept. 2 poll included 29 percent of responses from cell phone contacts and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Among respondents to the poll, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent said they were Republicans and 38 percent said they were independents.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:08 am
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Paul Simon was a master politician. Sheila is really bad at it.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:12 am
Has JBT even campaigned at all? I’m sure she has done something, but I sure haven’t noticed anything in my area. This is just sad on so many levels for Sheila Simon.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:13 am
perhaps they should have had that Will County guy run…
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:16 am
JBT has a very different meaning among many.
As in jack-booted thugs.
Just an FYI.
Judy has name recognition. That’s about it.
John
Comment by John Boch Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:19 am
It must be all the negative campaigning Judy uses against her opponents. I read all the time how negative campaigning works.
So, I’m certain it has to be those anti-Simon ads Judy is running, right?
Topinka shows how incumbents win.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:20 am
I have no doubt that JBT is up huge, but honestly we need to stop reporting these We Ask America Polls. As pointed out by the Washington Post (And any Stats teacher worth their salt) they aren’t structurally sound.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/02/two-polls-show-dick-durbin-is-in-trouble-dont-believe-the-hype/
I know this is blog Rich and not a traditional news outlet, so I get you posting whatever polls come up, but We Ask America is just not worth paying attention to.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:22 am
Comptroller Topinka is poised to be re-elected because;
She has completely out worked and out hustled Sheila.
She has a Crew that is seasoned and skilled at understanding the politics and Illinois. Sheila’s Crew is out manned and worse, saddled with an inferior candidate than the Topinka Crew.
She has made the financial goals needed to defend against an aggressive or competent rival. Sheila Simon is neither of those.
The Crew will take ZERO for granted, give no aid or comfort to a challenger aggressively looking for openings, which Sheila and her Crew are tragically, and comically inept at trying to do with any skill.
Finally, Comptroller Topinka is likable, her word means something, she sticks with her friends, and understands that working together with Democrats, Unions, Conservatives, Moderates, Veterans, Ethnic Groups and Organizations…getting people to pull one way gets things done…
…Sheila bailed on the “guy who brought her”…
That sums that up.
Arguably the most popular GOP Leader in Illinois, with the most seasoned and well- run governmental and political Crew on the GOP side, and with money in the coffers and the Unions clearing the way for moderates and Dems to flock to her…
…Twenty points seem about right for today.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:22 am
John,
I would also submit that Sheila doesn’t instill a lot of love among the Dem faithful and that means she isn’t getting talked up by those folks with their less engaged pals.
Also the unions supporting Judy don’t help Sheila with what should be her base at all…
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:23 am
Voters to Sheila: We know you’re a decent person who has integrity. And we respected your father. But get out of politics.
Comment by Excessively rabid Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:25 am
===has a strong chance of winning===
Nope. She’s a lock.
And while a lot does depend on name recognition, JBT has stood out from her peers for openness, honesty, and transparency. She has earned her support, among those who follow the state offices closely.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:25 am
=== we need to stop reporting these We Ask America Polls. As pointed out by the Washington Post (And any Stats teacher worth their salt) they aren’t structurally sound. ===
I believe, if I recall correctly, Rich has demonstrated that We Ask America Polls, at the conclusion of an election, often were more accurate than traditional polling. Rich, perhaps you can weigh-in on this again.
Comment by Just Observing Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:29 am
I remember the last time Sheila had to run a race on her own (i.e. without being on a ticket). She was defeated soundly by Brad Cole in her quest to become Mayor of Carbondale. Her campaign was all over the place and she was aloof at best. She put a $50 cap on the donations she would accept and then took little-to-no advice from anyone outside of Jackson County. No one - other than Ms. Simon and her team - should be surprised by how all of this has played out.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:32 am
=== they aren’t structurally sound===
That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:34 am
===That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even===
Willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, could you state your evidence?
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:37 am
- That WaPo article is ridiculous. I read it yesterday. Clueless, even -
Is WAA not a one-day, automated poll?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:47 am
==- John Boch - Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:19 am:==
Wow, what profound insight.
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 9:53 am
John Boch, I’m guessing you see jack-booted thugs under the bed. Sorry being born in America was such a raw deal for you.
Too bad you “lost” all those guns, like you brag about on your website. Wonder if they ended up in the hands of gangbangers. Somebody would have made money that way.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:01 am
Much better numbers for JBT in suburban Cook than the last poll.
Comment by Paul Lynde for the Block Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am
Whaddaya say
About the gun guy Boch
Who can’t keep track
Of his very own Glock
Lost Guns Don’t Save Lives
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:09 am
Lol AA. Comment of the week.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:14 am
Excessively Rabid,
A lot of Dems would not agree.
They think Simon has literally nothing but a name.
She dumped Quinn when she thought he looked weak, in an attempt to further her own career. She saw that path blocked, and she wanted some elected office, so she found one where she thought she could win a primary.
She has never understood that people on both right and left liked her father because of his integrity. They trusted the guy.
Nobody trusts Simon, and I don’t know anybody who likes her.
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 10:35 am
Artie A, you madeth me chuckle.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:05 am
I’m surprised JBT is only at 51.4%. Still don’t give Sheila a chance, but the low % for JBT is surprising. it’s not much above 50%.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:26 am
Amelia, even if Simon somehow managed to get all the undecideds (incredibly unlikely) JBT would still have a double-digit win. I think most candidates would be pretty happy with that.
Comment by Raising Kane Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 11:47 am
That eight percent for the Libertarian has to be a little concerning for Rauner.
Just as many cast a protest vote against Rod and for Whitney in 2006, it looks like Libertarians are prepared to protest a social moderate if they perceive it will not change the outcome.
Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:04 pm
@ Raising Kane, I’m just surprised she’s only at 51.4% after how many years running statewide?
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 12:11 pm
===I’m just surprised she’s only at 51.4% after how many years running statewide?===
I am surprised that 31% of those polled know Sheila Simon, and are going choose her in a poll…
- Amalia -, if you go the 2/3 rule on “undecideds”, which is standard to “guess-timate”, giving Sheila 6%, Comptroller Topinka 3%, and even knocking 2% off the Lib. candidate and tossing it to Sheila… Where is it?
Topinka -54%
Simon - 39%
Fifteen point win is a whitewash in this case.
That’s double-digits, comfortably…
…and, the bad news for Sheila? The Topinka Crew runs like they are behind double-digits and won’t let up for a second…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 1:23 pm
Shelia and Judy are the two hottest women in Illinois. After the election they should make a calender.
Comment by Dixon Cider Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 3:25 pm
==Paul Simon was a master politician. Sheila is really bad at it.==
Spot on as always, wordslinger….Paul also had a master politician for a spouse.
Comment by Vote Quimby! Wednesday, Sep 3, 14 @ 4:05 pm