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8th District roundup - Updated x3

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They went at it in the 8th last night.

A more aggressive Republican David McSweeney used the final 8th Congressional District debate Tuesday night to go after Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean on immigration, flip-flopping, the war on terror and ethics.

But Bean, a freshman lawmaker from Barrington, fired back that the Nov. 7 election is a choice between â€œmainstream or extreme,â€ citing McSweeneyâ€™s positions on stem cell research and education.

The fourth and last forum in the nationally watched race unfolded before 250 people who filled an auditorium at McHenry County College in Crystal Lake. The rapid-fire exchange of ideas, which also featured third-party candidate Bill Scheurer of Lindenhurst, was sponsored by CBS-2 and the Northwest Herald.

Immigration reform is a top issue this fall, and McSweeney and Bean both back the House measure that contains no provision for amnesty. But McSweeney took Bean to task for voting for a Democratic procedural attempt to derail the House immigration package before she ultimately voted in favor of it on the final vote.

â€œShe says one thing and does another thing,â€ said McSweeney, a Barrington Hills investment banker who repeated his common campaign refrain several times.

Some video is here. Hopefully, the entire debate will be put online.

Meanwhile, after writing that the national Republican outlooks appears “pitiful,” Robert Novak does have some kind words for McSweeney.

Only one seat appears to be truly vulnerable for takeover, the Republican-heavy seat taken in 2004 by Rep. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.). We continue to believe that former Rep. Phil Crane (R) lost this 56 percent Bush seat, and not that Bean really won it. Voters will probably make a correction this year, but not without a heroic Republican effort. Despite a financial advantage, Bean suffers from a massive defection of organized labor and the presence of a pro-labor third-party candidate in her race against businessman David McSweeney (R).

And Richard Baehr writes:

I have reviewed the latest analyses by Larry Sabato, Stuart Rothenberg, Charles Cook, Robert Novak, and blogger Chris Bowers of MyDD.com. All were completed in the last week, and there is remarkable consistency both in identifying the races where a seat could turn over and in noting how few opportunities exist for the Republicans to pick up a Democrat-held seat. In fact, in only one race, do any of the analysts rate any Republican challenger as either ahead or even. That is the 8th district in Illinois, where Dave McSweeney is challenging Democrat Melissa Bean. And even here, the consensus view is still a narrow Bean lead.

UPDATE 2: From the Rothenberg Political Report:

Publicly, Democrats are confident they will keep all of their seats and add to their number in November, but there is a good chance they will lose at least one. The most vulnerable seats, to this point, appear to be John Barrow (GA-12), Melissa Bean (IL-8), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), and Leonard Boswell (IA-3). Even longer-shot GOP opportunities include Chet Edwards (TX-17), Jim Marshall (GA-8), Charlie Melancon (LA-3), John Spratt (SC-5), and open seats in Vermont (At-Large), Illinois (17th District), Hawaii (2nd District), and Ohio (6th District).

[Emphasis added]

UPDATE: A new poll by Democratic pollster Constituent Dynamics, shows Bean ahead of McSweeney, 48-45.

From MyDD:

These polls are all conducted by Constituent Dynamics, August 27-29. They are done IVR style (automated telephone), are all likely voters, have large sample sizes (close to 1,000), and margin of error of 3.1%.

[Hat tip to a commenter, who pointed to this post at SoapBloxChicago]

UPDATE 3: From AnimalFarm:

Republican challenger David McSweeney is buying $1 million worth of TV ad time slated to start Oct. 24, two weeks before Election Day. That’s on top of the $1.8 million in ad time the National Republican Campaign Committee has reserved for the 8th Congressional District race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved about $2.3 million to defend Rep. Melissa Bean’s hard-won seat. Bean already has bought $1 million in TV time and could probably afford another $1 million, given her strength at fund-raising.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 8:23 am

Comments

I would say this race is too close to call. Bean is out of the mainstream with some democrats, but is probably doing well with many GOP women. It is hard to tell. But, if Bean is currently in the lead in the 8th, who is currently in the lead in the 6th???

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 8:36 am
Bean was certainly the most nervous at the Crystal Lake debate.

Kroh gave an indication of it when he wrote, “â€¦Bean, who was told to stop by debate timekeepers at least a half-dozen times for speaking too long.”

The debate was lively and made me think of what politics probably were before electronic media.

I believe there would be lots of people who would flock to future debates, because this one was fun to watch.

But, Democrat Melissa Bean apparently is afraid to go to any more debates.

Let’s see, the campaign started on Labor Day (Monday) and her last debate was on Tuesday.

There is something seriously wrong with this picture.

If you would like a more extensive rendering of what was said at the debate, I have written it up at McHenryCountyBlog.com

Comment by Cal Skinner Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:07 am
The 6th is a straight tossup. WAY too close to call.

Honestly, the 8th really shouldn’t be blue. And pandering to Republicans all damn day long still won’t change the fact that Melissa Bean has a (D) by her name.

A lot of progressives consider her a worthless Democrat, but I disagree. I’ll take her if it means gaining a majority.

Comment by Bridget Dooley Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:09 am
Consistency between the prognosticators doesn’t not prove that the predictions are solid. It merely means they are reflecting the same conventional wisdom, probably from the same sources.

The question I’m interested in is what kind of candidate overperforms and underperforms.

To what extent will anti-establishment and outside-the-establishment candidates over perform. To what extent will candidates that run conservative campaigns underperform?

If people are [edited by moderator] and it a “throw the bums out” mood, what could happen in Illinois?

* McSweeney beats Bean, but doesn’t break 50%
* Seals beats Kirk
* Zinga beats Hare
* Duckworth and Roskam go to the wire with a large number of people not voting the race
* Pavich beats Weller, aka the guy who married the Udai Hussein of Guatemala
* Dr. Gill gets over 45% against Tim Johnson

If three of these six things come to pass, it’s probably fair to say that voters are in a cranky mood.

And they should be. Median income is down. If you remove the upper quintile and gov’t employees median income is probably falling like a stone. Taxes are up. We’ve got a war the Republicans want to go on forever and a feckless Democratic Party that won’t commit to ending the Iraq War, holding Bush accountable or significant course change on domestic policy.

Had enough?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:10 am
One interesting data point. There is a union HQ on US 45 just north of Peterson Rd in Lake County. It’s a busy road.

I drove by it one day, there was a BEAN sign by the road in the union’s lawn.

Next day it was gone, and hasn’t come back.

Comment by Pat collins Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 10:12 am
McSweeney’s performance was robotic. He had his half dozen talking points and I don’t think he deviated from them. Does anyone really care that Bean will vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker — or that Pelosi is from California? This sort of rhetoric must be polling well for McSweeney, because that seems to be all he had to offer.

Comment by ElaObserver Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 11:00 am
The feedback on this debate on Lake County local radio (Libb Collins Show) was pretty amazing. Bean was harshly criticized by many for showing up “late” and leaving immediately after the debate. She was also accused of frequently failing to answer the question posed or by chattering away until she ran out of time and was unable to answer or completely answer the question posed.

I didn’t see or hear the debate. Just reporting what I heard on the radio show this A.M.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 11:04 am
As upset as labor is, will they still vote for Bean in November as the lesser or two evils? And, thanks to the low interest rates and the housing boom of the last few years, the 8th isn’t quite as red as it once was.

I think Bean will squeeze out a narrow victory with a lot of people biting their tongues and casting for her.

Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 1:10 pm
jeff at soapblox/chicago is showing this polling:

IL-8
Melissa Bean 48
David McSweeny 45

http://www.soapblox.net/chicago/showDiary.do?diaryId=2101

Comment by bored now Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 3:08 pm
So, a Democrat poll, shows Bean and McSweeney in a virtual dead heat, without Scheurer even being included?

That’s hardly something for Democrats to smile about.

Comment by Establishment Republican Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 3:36 pm
Hey Cal, Bean was interrupted by the moderator because she has developed interesting, in-depth ideas and opinions on most issues, unlike McSweeny who looks like he would be more comfortable debating a IRS agent at an audit. You knew this race was over when the Democratic powers that be deceided not to dump Scheurer from the ballot even though he was few (hundred)signatures shy of a full load.

Comment by The Shiv Wednesday, Sep 6, 06 @ 5:53 pm