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* I’m still sick as heck. But I’m so weirded out about this new Chicago Tribune poll showing Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner 48-37 that I had to post something. I’m just going to point out two things because I’m nowhere near up to strength.
* First, the poll was taken using registered voters…
The poll, conducted Sept. 3 through Friday by APC Research Inc., featured interviews on landlines and cellphones with 800 registered voters.
I don’t know anybody polling registered voters in mid-September. Everybody is polling likely voters.
Also, the universe of registered voters is always going to skew more Democratic than the universe of likely voters (hence the Democratic Party’s huge push to increase turnout this year), so that explains a lot.
* Secondly…
Helping fuel Quinn’s early advantage was the poll’s finding that 43 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats while only 24 percent called themselves Republicans and 28 percent said they were independents. The partisan split is identical to a Tribune poll in fall 2008, when home state Democrat Barack Obama made his first bid for the White House, and also represents a high-water mark for Democrats in Illinois in a nonpresidential year since 1998.
Everyone who thinks that this is an Obama ‘08 wave year in Illinois, please raise your hand.
The Tribune’s polls have been pretty good over the years. They were the first to point out how close the governor’s race really was in 2010, for instance. But this one, I’m afraid, appears to be a flawed outlier.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:22 pm
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It’s still early.
And undecideds very often break for the challenger at the last minute.
As an aside, I’ve been polled *three* times already this year in the governor’s race. It’s bizarre.
John
Comment by John Boch Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:27 pm
I was shocked when I saw this poll on Saturday, but that turned to laughter when it had Rauner up only five points in the collar counties. If Rauner wins the collars by less than 10%, I’ll move to Springfield.
Comment by Lunchbox Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:28 pm
I would agree with your comments Rich. This is appears to be a close one down to the wire. If this poll is skewed as we suspect I wonder what the “real” Durbin / Oberweis numbers are?
I hope you feel better soon.
Comment by Stones Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:32 pm
Hard to believe that this poll is accurate.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:36 pm
Rich, I don’t care what everyone else says. I hope you get well soon.
Comment by jim Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:38 pm
It’s an outlier, but the trendline has been clearly moving against Rauner of late.
Comment by The Captain Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:49 pm
The Trib poll surprised me as much as Rich posting today while under the weather. I hope you are feeling better soon.
Comment by No Longer A Lurker Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:50 pm
Classic subterfuge. Give Team Quinn the idea that he’s doing fine, let them believe they can take their foot off the gas. Just kidding. I think Rich’s analysis explains a lot.
Plus, if this poll is to be believed, doesn’t it mean no one is reading the Tribune? They’ve been all over Quinn for months (if not years), so how could he possibly be leading in their poll? It’s like many of their readers have rejected or ignored everything they’ve written about Quinn. Somewhere a small part of Bruce Dold’s head exploded when he saw this poll.
Ouch.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:53 pm
Feel better, Rich. I have a sore throat and runny nose. Fall cold is coming. Grab Oscar and get dome canine healing. Always works for me.
Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:56 pm
This poll is probably an outlier in Quinn’s favor. I also believe that the We Ask America polls are an outlier in favor of Rauner.
Comment by Snucka Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 1:58 pm
I was like what? Maybe Quinn is leading, but it was a shock. Rich, are you fighting off the aftereffects of a Bear win? Feel better
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:03 pm
Outlier or not, it set off Rauner today and I predict this is the beginning of the end for him. I have also heard from many “independent’ voter friends who said they are more than a little irritated with the volume of Rauner ads. He may have already hit the point of diminishing returns.
Comment by MrGrassroots Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:06 pm
Rich points out some issues, but it was a really good week for Quinn when this poll was in the field. It’s entirely possible that Rauner’s campaign could implode as voters get to know him. The general public isn’t very happy with robber barons at the moment.
Comment by LittleLebowskiUrbanAchiever Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:06 pm
A poll like this has the potential to decrease Democratic turnout - supporters might stay home if they think their candidate doesn’t need their vote. I see a silver lining for Rauner here.
Comment by Illinoise Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:12 pm
To paraphrase what I used to say regarding Rod, you have put me in the awkward position of defending the Chicago Tribune:
1) On WGN’s ‘Sunday Spin’, Rick Pearson says that while they called registered voters, they weeded out anyone who was not a likely voter.
2) Illinois bucked the national trend in 2010.
3) 2014 is not 2008 for the Democratic brand. But it is similar to 2008 in that there has been a sudden and unpredicted shift in the political environment. Walgreens, Michael Brown and to the lesser degree the national minimum wage movement are likely to have an impact on turnout and party ID that was unforeseen. Now we have the NFL scooting in.
Think back to just after the primary and the primary argument of Bruce Rauner: taxes and term limits. No one is talking about either issue right now. What is dominating the public consciousness right now is issues that greatly favor democrats: tax inversions, police brutality, domestic violence and child abuse, and the minimum wage.
News coverage does not tell people what to think, but it does greatly influence what people think about. I wish the Tribune had asked or released the voters’ top priority. That would provide greater insight.
In Minnesota, in what was supposed to be a relatively close race, Al Franken has opened up a 13 point lead, crushing his opponent 66-20 in the Twin Cities area and leading 49-36 statewide.
If I am right, this might actually be good news for Rauner. News stories change,
YDD
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:15 pm
Lawn party this weekend, the talk took (to me, at least) an unfortunate turn toward the “what’s the deal with Rauner?”
This from my GOP-friends. They weren’t enthusiastic — especially after his pro-choice television ads this past week. The ads, apparently, really bothered folks. Not sure why the GOP candidate isn’t an actual GOP candidate. Mixed messages, confusion. Then: “Who’s the libertarian guy again?”
Not good, I’d say.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:16 pm
Get well Rich.
All good points Rich, but I think these polls do show trends and show that this is a very tight race, not a Rauner rout as earlier polls suggested.
Comment by Peoria guy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:18 pm
Plus, to echo Vanillaman’s point all along: Voters don’t have much of a reason to vote FOR the Republican Party.
The GOP hasn’t given them much of a reason in a very, very long time.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:19 pm
The Reboot Illinois and WeAskAmerica have been predisposed to favor Rauner. People called this out and there was a reaction against those people. Polling to influence the election is wrong and too much of this is happening. You can say numbers are numbers but the reality is that poll results can easily be influenced one way or another.
Comment by anon Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:25 pm
You see, Pat Quinn is da Bears, and Bruce Rauner is the 49ers. Da Bears stink in the first half, but then capitalize on all of the 49ers mistakes in the second half. Even Hurricane Ditka can’t stop him.
And yeah, this poll is wrong. I think Quinn will win… but this is wrong
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:28 pm
I thought the same thing about the percentage of Dems, so I checked the 2010 exit polls–CNN’s anyways.
Lo and behold:
44% Dem
32% Rep
24% Ind
So this poll is right on the mark with Dems, under estimates Republicans, and overestimates Independants when compared to 2010.
An outlier–probably–but not so much because they used Obamas numbers for 2008
Comment by train111 Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:30 pm
Kind of sorry to see the expert commenters at CapFax so ready to tear down a serious poll. They are not making these numbers up, folks.
The Trib was I’m sure surprised by the result and didn’t put the numbers (Quinn +11) in the headline and you had to go to the 3rd paragraph of the Sunday paper to see the actual numbers. Something tells me that the results would have received more prominence had Rauner been on top.
And suggesting that a pollster has a dog in the race is just silly. This poll was done by a professional outfit that isn’t going to undermine its reputation.
Yes, this poll is an outlier compared to other polls. But it’s just one poll. As someone noted above, the pollsters keep calling and calling and won’t stop until the election is over.
Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:30 pm
One would surmise that a company the Chicago Tribune uses to conduct its bannered polling stories would have a website. You would be wrong.
Comment by Klondike Captain Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:34 pm
I agree that this poll is likely an outlier. The Tribune seems to think the same thing! They buried the lede…the fact that Quinn is up 11 points wasn’t mentioned until the 3rd graph. And if you just casually glanced at the headline while in line at your neighborhood 7-11, you’d have no idea the story was about a poll. Instead the headline put out the most negative spin possible for Quinn,
If the same poll came up with the opposite results, no doubt the headline would have blared: “Rauner holds comfortable lead”
Comment by F.B. Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:34 pm
Too close to call.
Go back to bed.
Comment by walker Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:51 pm
I am not so sure. I know several people that have cooled on the whole Rauner Shake Up thing. Initial enthusiasm has waned with many regular R voters I know. Rauner probably will win, but it might be by 2% or less.
Comment by Mcleaniac Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:53 pm
I listened to to Pearson this weekend, like - YDD - and those are very compelling points.
To the Post,
Rauner is up, beyond any MOE. Right now. Today.
Further, Quinn isn’t a front-runner and a Quinn Crew believing any part of a lead would be as Dopey as it comes.
The only thing I think that could be seen as troubling or accurate, or both;
Rauner is upside down on favorable/unfavorable, and even giving this poll 100% of Rich’s hard critique, the image of Rauner being seen upside down is a warning flag.
…
Sidebar, Rich, get well. OW
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:54 pm
The only real poll that matters is the one on election day.
Comment by Yipperdo Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:06 pm
“The only real poll that matters is the one on election day.”
True, but also a statement made by losing candidates since the dawn of time.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:22 pm
Hope you feel better tomorrow.
Comment by Toure's Latte Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:29 pm
If I were Pat Quinn’s campaign brain trust I would be doing everything I could to drive up voter registration in the black community in particular and Chicago in general.
I’d also be doing everything I could to tie Rauner to Rahm. Rahm may be the most unpopular politician in and out of Chicago. He’s hated within the city for being such a cuddly character and downstate for being from Chicago.
I’d be running under the radar internet campaigns highlighting the photos of Rahm and Rauner, the two R’s, vacationing together and pointing out how and from whom Rahm made most of his wealth.
I’d also be using black owned radio stations to suggest that certain black ministers are selling out the community for money from Rauner. Turn that from a positive to a negative for Rauner.
That’s just me though. What we have her reminds me of 2010. Two basically unelectable candidates facing one another. One has to win and being a congenital democrat my choice is for Quinn which rhymes with Win. Rauner rhymes with Goner. Or is alliterative with Rahmer.
Comment by IrishPirate Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:33 pm
See Jack Daniels, MD and report in when you’re better.
Comment by A guy... Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:34 pm
This race continues to be a toss-up, in my opinion. I don’t believe the Trib poll’s margin. But I believe the elements that show the attacks on Rauner’s wealth and out-of-touchness are paying off. My guess is that it will bas as close or closer than Quinn-Brady.
Comment by Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:35 pm
Even with the flaws in this poll, the data does make me wonder if constant Quinn bashing will bear much more fruit for Rauner. Voters don’t like Quinn, but they’re still voting for him. Seems like Rauner might need to concentrate on giving folks a reason to support him.
And as much as I’m sick of the don’t-vote-for-him-cuz-he’s-rich message from the Quinnsters, it’s hard to argue that it’s not working against Rauner. The Quinn folks have him teed up pretty well for what comes next: how he got rich. Nursing homes, outsourcing, etc.
Comment by F.B. Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:40 pm
Maybe this poll result is just an outlier like Rich thinks it is, but I think it’s a sign of voters beginning to break for Quinn and rejecting Rauner.
I also think this apparent movement is being misattributed as being largely due to class warfare (billionaire Bruce Rauner attempting to buy the election).
I think what’s crucial and is largely being overlooked is the pivotal Tribune poll question, “Which candidate is more honest and trustworthy? Answer: Quinn 37%, Rauner 26%, and neither 19%.
I believe this represents a fundamental rejection of Rauner’s attacks on Quinn’s honesty and integrity and is really what’s undermining Rauner’s entire campaign.
Instead, Pat Quinn’s attacks on Rauner’s integrity are what’s getting traction and leading voters to reject Bruce Rauner as being a person who is not trustworthy and to reject his shameless and unjustified attacks on Quinn as not being credible.
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:41 pm
While questions remain, the trend certainly seems to show this very tight, with Quinn perhaps moving into a lead.
Quinn’s positive lawn ad was very good, and in contrast, Rauner’s team has not been very strong since he got the nod.
This is going to end up close, but if I had to bet right now, I think Rauner follows Brady and loses a race that he should have won.
In four years, I fully expect the ILGOP to again pull the nominee too far to the right, making November again out of reach.
Other than Kirk, Sandack and maybe Schock, I’m just not seeing anybody in the ILGOP who has a chance, and of those three, only Kirk has a real chance of getting a nomination.
Dan Proft is probably already working on his “Rauner lost because he was too moderate” rant, and a certain woman-hating Tribune columnist probably already has his “Rauner was the combine” piece ready to go.
The far right can’t win elections, but there sure can place blame.
Comment by Gooner Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:42 pm
“Scam perpetrated by Pat Quinn”, says Bruce Rauner #truth
Comment by Black Ivy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:45 pm
===In four years, I fully expect…===
How about we focus on this poll, this race, this cycle.
Geez, this poll now is a crystal ball to four years from now too?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:50 pm
Strange that they wouldn’t try to model it for likely voters. Presumably then you’d get the approximate toss-up that I suspect. If they’re short on Republicans and over on Independents, I’d think they have Quinn’s number right, but Rauner’s palpably short, and if they’d have adjusted the numbers for a likely voter screen and a more realistic Republican weighting, you’d quite possibly have a 48 tie. That Liberterian starts to loom large . . . . as does Rauner’s rather unappealing candidacy.
What if Kirk Dillard . . . . well, you know the drill by now!
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:51 pm
===“Which candidate is more honest and trustworthy?” Answer: Quinn 37%, Rauner 26%, and neither 19%.===
I looked at that too, thinking honesty, integrity, ethics, morals…but even with Pearson defending the rationale of the polling methods, and this very specific question, the idea of those polled finding Rauner upside down on approval is more of a red flag than the “honest” question.
Why?
Neither is seen trustworthy at a clip even close to 50% against the other.
37% isn’t a ringing endorsement, and 27%, really? That’s low for a low number against anyone.
Rauner’s own perception is what should make his Crew nervous.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 3:57 pm
===37% isn’t a ringing endorsement, and 27%, really? That’s low for a low number against anyone.===
I’m not looking at the absolute numbers, I’m looking at the differential. I think that Rauner simply can afford a 10 point differential on this question and still hope to win. It undermines the very basis and foundation of his entire campaign.
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:05 pm
My bad. Of course that sentence should have said that “Rauner simply CANNOT afford a 10 point differential” etc.
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:08 pm
I’m curious what the effect of the investigations starting back up in October will have on the polling, will this ‘closing the gap’ trend reverse?
Comment by Nony Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:13 pm
- Mighty M. Mouse -,
I hear ya. I guess I am coming from this as how Rauner is now being seen in a sample like this, in a snapshot, rather than looking at the measurable being the comparable, today of trust.
To catch Quinn on trust, let’s say, in this poll, if people poll higher on the disapproval after all these Ads, even making up a 5 point spread is tough when they disapprove of both choices(?)
With respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:17 pm
Willy:
I might be wrong, but this is the first poll I have seen that included Chad Grimm in the candidate rotation.
Do you remember others?
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:20 pm
- YDD -,
I can’t think of a single one, and I think Pearson pointed that out too.
When listening to the 15 minutes on the poll, and such, I really only felt comfortable with the numbers of Rauner disapproval higher than approval seeming reasonable, and without another poll with Grimm, with only unfiltered likely voters, it’s tough to look at this, even Pearson saying, snapshot, without some reservations.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:25 pm
Tribune poll also mirrors what Rauner sent out this weekend about early voting in a direct mail piece. Team Rauner used fake headlines to portend a Quinn win over Rauner. Hmmmm
Comment by anon Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:36 pm
Rauner has been downright nasty in his criticism of Quinn. Flat out mean. People don’t want a hater as Gov, despite what advice Mike Ditka gives Rauner. Quinn 54, Rauner-Ditka 42, Libertarian Guy 4.
Comment by Minnie Pearl Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:38 pm
Poll looks credible to me.
I definitely sense tide is turning in big way against Rauner as folks starting to pay attention to the ways he got so rich and what he was willing to do to people. Things like the insulting “trash can van” ad don’t help either.
It’s probably about time for Rauner to “bust-out” his campaign. Grab what you can Bruce, you know the drill.
Comment by too obvious Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:39 pm
Some of you are planning to do campaign autopsies on the losing candidate before the election. To paraphrase that great Illinoisan–sadly we have to claim him-Donald Rumsfeld “you go into the election booth with the candidates you have”.
Before claiming Raumer is toast and candidate ? would have been better let’s see what happens on the first Tuesday in November.
I’m often wrong, but my guess is the Fenwick kid will defeat Rauner in a two point victory landslide. In his winning and losing campaigns Quinn almost always closes well and Rauner seems to be like a slowly deflating bike tire. You might not be able to recognize the lack of air by looking at it, but once you get on the bike and start to ride it’s immediately clear.
I think “Governors” Hynes and Brady might sadly agree with me.
Comment by IrishPirate Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:39 pm
Whew
We were worried all the rentals, Durkie, credit unions, meeks, $tu, et al will be cheated out of last 2 mobths. Now they bill Mitt for the last 2 months. GET THOSE INVOICES IN RIGHT AWAY
Comment by circular firing squad Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:40 pm
There was a poll that included Grimm in the past 10 days or so that had Rauner leading
Comment by Wally Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:47 pm
Would be shocking if this was more than a 5 point win for either side. Illinois in normal years would lean 10 points to the democrats.
Comment by Very Fed Up Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:47 pm
Get well Rich,
Rauner can only win by getting more positive ads showing he is not out of touch and a radical rich guy. Surprisingly the Quinn team has defined him and it has got voters really mistrusting him.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:49 pm
Willy -
I said since the beginning that the key for Quinn was to make the election a choice, not a referendum on his record.
A third candidate on the ballot has that exact effect. But, at the same time, it is a poll, so 5 percent probably aint likely to stick with Grimm if the race is close.
Or, all of the negative ads could drive voters to Grimm..
A focus group on this race would be interesting as heck.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:50 pm
- YDD -,
I am a Dope.
https://capitolfax.com/2014/09/11/democratic-poll-quinn-leads-rauner-and-grimm-43-40-5/
Apologies.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:51 pm
On the Honest and Trustworthy question…
43% Dems polled but Quinn only gets 37% saying honest. That’s a Negative 6%.
24% GOP polled and Rauner gets 27% saying honest.
That’s a Plus 3%.
Comment by Jerry Hubbard Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:52 pm
theoney = the money.
Apologies.
Comment by Minnie Pearl Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:54 pm
One poll does not give an accurate reading of the current state of public opinion. There has to be a collection of polls to better-show what people are thinking.
Still, it’s possible that Rauner is slipping in the polls. The YouGov poll showed him up by 3, and the Democratic poll showed Quinn up by 3.
The negatives could be catching up to Rauner: the Cayman Islands tax shelter, job outsourcing, the cheap van, etc.
Quinn should also hit Rauner on his faulty budget plans.
By the way, an article came out today about how states’ tax revenues have fallen because of income inequality. The article mentions that the super-wealthy save more money and use more untaxed services.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/income-inequality-is-hurting-state-tax-revenue-report-says/2014/09/14/12f31a8c-3c59-11e4-b03f-de718edeb92f_story.html?wprss=rss_national
So much for the swell of tax revenue that’s supposed to come from the “job creators” and from cutting taxes and spurring explosive growth.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 4:54 pm
I guess one could say these poll results are as phony as Bruce Rauner’s everyman routine.
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:00 pm
=Rauner is up, beyond any MOE. Right now. Today.=
How would anyone be able to know that?
Quinn is up, beyond any MOE. Right now. Today.
Better!
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:07 pm
FYI: The Tribune also polled the Senate race from the same sample, and it has Durbin up 23 points (55-32).
Comment by Mike Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:09 pm
I made my connect based on the ongoing tallies of polls, less this one.
Just like when Rauner was up double digits, then down single digits, the trend hasn’t moved this out of Rauner up, say 4, to a MOE of 3 1/2…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:10 pm
Here’s Rick Pearson from his radio show talking about the poll.
http://wgnradio.com/2014/09/14/rick-pearson-chicago-tribune-polls/
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:13 pm
The downstate welfare retirees are confused too.
If they can let go of their beer cans, grass and their Link cards long enough, I think Quinn can carry downstate.
Comment by redleg Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:15 pm
Other polls have shown Durbin up 6 or 7 points. So we are to believe the Tribune poll has Durbin up 23 and some of you are comfortable with the results? Get comfortable, and complacent.
I’m sure the Tribune poll is extremely accurate!
Comment by Wally Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:16 pm
Disparity in poll results show one thing, in my opinion. It’s too close to call.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:30 pm
Rauner must have plotzed another ten million when he saw that headline, lol.
Nobody’s leading by 11, and certainly no one is gong to win by 11.
Still there were some interesting points.
By now, Rauner must know that the “regular-guy” schtick is a dog, with 49% for Quinn to 30% for Rauner on the “in-touch” question.
That 30% is bedrock; they’d buy whatever Rauner is selling. He hasn’t convinced anyone with the cheap watch bit. A waste of money.
It was always too heavy a lift and Rauner tried way too hard, doubling down with the shaggin-wagon spot.
There’s just a natural disconnect in witnessing someone spend a fortune to cheerily insist that they like cheap junk. It doesn’t make any sense and just opens him up to conspicuous consumption counter-punches.
The cheesy phoniness of the whole effort probably explains in part why Rauner gets only 26% on the more trustworthy question.
One thing’s for sure: there’s no way Quinn will change his media strategy after this.
And Rauner might want to give his another think.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:39 pm
===One thing’s for sure: there’s no way Quinn will change his media strategy after this.
And Rauner might want to give his another think.===
All true.
If Rauner decides to double-down on the negatives (like today’s high octane rhetoric), if people aren’t buying the “regular guy, honest” bit, how much more can Rauner keep the negatives, while his negatives will only go up.
Rauner was at 10% negatives in the waning days of the Primary and lost a 17 “alleged” point lead.
They have problems, the Rauner Crew. They need to recalibrate, or continually get painted as Quinn has done, and it will we tough to overcome.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:46 pm
Well, the DGA poll sure makes the Quinn poll seem like much less of an outlier.
Thanks Willy.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:49 pm
Remember four years ago l said the Governor will win. Twice this year l said “take it to bank, Governor Pat Quinn will be re-elected. The margin will be larger than four years ago.
Comment by Common Sense Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 5:53 pm
the simple truth is that there is not a single campaign being run in Illinois that has internals anywhere near the trib poll. Which can mean 1 of 2 things: the trib is right and every campaign has incredibly flawed methodology or the Trib is wrong. I’m leaning towards the latter because if Quinn’s internals were matching the trib, they would have released them before they could have even printed the toplines.
Comment by Barney Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:00 pm
Today seems like a real low — a genuine low — for Rauner. Calling Quinn bumbling? Come on. Voters are smarter than that.
It’s grade school rhetoric from Rauner. Beating the IDOT drum ain’t gonna help either — especially when Rauner’s bustout is heading to court on Sept 22. That’ll be something to see.
BTW — has anyone compiled a list of Rauner’s business ventures that *haven’t* ended in some sort of legal dispute? Does he have any genuine successes?
Comment by Macbeth Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:02 pm
I tried posting something earlier, but it didn’t take.
I agree that this poll could be an outlier. We have to look at a combination of recent polls to see the best picture of public sentiment.
It does look like the race is tightening, per the last few polls. That is good news for Quinn.
I think Quinn needs to hit Rauner hard on his tax and budget plans, as well as the vulture capitalist stuff. Articles came out today about an S&P report showing that income inequality is substantially reducing states’ tax revenues.
One of the articles states that income going to the wealthiest, who save more, get tax breaks and often avoid paying service taxes, has a large role in the problem. Wage stagnation is also cited as being responsible.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-income-inequality-is-squeezing-state-budgets/
So much for the explosive growth in tax revenue that’s supposed to come the massive job growth that is spurred by tax cuts and wealth accumulation at the top.
Rauner’s budget plans and philosophy, generally put in practice, seem to be exactly what’s causing the revenue shortages. The Quinn campaign might want to tie the two together and portray Rauner as someone who wants to damage our fiscal health while further enriching the wealthiest.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:14 pm
Poll 43% Cub fans and ask them if they like the Cubs better than the Cardinals. Poll 24% Cardinal fans and ask them if they prefer the Cards more than the Cubs.
Tally the results.
Comment by Wally Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:22 pm
“Rauner must have plotzed another ten million when he saw that headline, lol.”
I wonder if Rauner piling on his own millions in the last few weeks will impress voters, rather the opposite.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:26 pm
Looks like some of Rauner’s cheez-whiz kids took some time after the Packer’s game to brush up on some Illinois political lingo.
–”Pat Quinn has been a loyal foot soldier for Patronage Inc. his entire career. And now, he’s running the Outfit,” Rauner said.–
Get it? Foot soldier? Running the Outfit? Right. Quinn’s the Big Tuna Sandwich.
–I’m nobody that nobody sent.–
With apologies to Rakove, plese. Bruce is just a humble shoe-shine boy, wanting to do his civic duty, Mr. Nobody has dropped millions on status quo politicians of both parties while hustling pension fund business bankrolling anti-union efforts and employing clout of get whatever he wants.
The act doesn’t work. No one believes it. The people who support him do so in spite of the phoniness.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:29 pm
===I wonder if Rauner piling on his own millions in the last few weeks will impress voters, rather the opposite.===
RAUNER PAYS PRICE FOR FUNDING OWN CAMPAIGN
SELF-FUNDING SELF-DESTRUCTS RAUNER BID
RAUNER’S ROI IS DOA IN GOV RACE
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:31 pm
What Rauner doesn’t understand — and what (apparently) no one is telling him — is that he looks goofy when he tries to talk tough. He doesn’t have the Chicago face that makes the lingo mean something. He and Rahm can carry their bottles of $100K wine — and pretend like they’re have a grand old square dance in Montana — but come on.
Winnetka? Please. You clout your daughter into a prep school? That’s what you understand.
“I’m nobody that nobody sent.”
Man, if Royko was alive. If only. If only.
Comment by Macbeth Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:41 pm
–I wonder if Rauner piling on his own millions in the last few weeks will impress voters–
Why? The woods are full of candidates who spent a fortune of their own dough and got beat.
The question I hear most often is why would anyone spend a fortune of their own money to get the gig?
The answer, I think, is because he wants it as a status symbol and he can easily afford it.
Or maybe it’s “purely out of love” as he said today, lol.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:43 pm
—
Or maybe it’s “purely out of love” as he said today, lol.
—
You should meet more rich people, W. They do a lot of things out of love. They’re generous. And they’re oh so smart. Rauner’s the perfect rich guy: smoking room in the Sears Tower, clout with Arne, busting out nursing homes and making old folks suffer. There’s so much love to talk about over golf, wine, and cigars.
Sure. Sure.
Comment by Macbeth Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 6:59 pm
And here is PQ in his 63 year old lawn mower ad:
Balanced the budget. HUH??? Baloney.
Gonna sell 9 planes. Great that you stole BR’s idea!!
Stopped the pay of the legislators. RULED ILLEGAL
Where is the outrage from all you Quinnsters???
Comment by Wally Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 7:00 pm
Over the TV: “I’m nobody that nobody sent.”
Slats, sitting at the bar, looked over when he heard that. “Who’s that?”
“Rauner. He wants to be governor.”
“The guy running for governor. Rauner.”
“I heard of him,” Slats said.
“Some rich guy. I think he’s like all the other rich guys.”
“Bruce Rauner,” said the bartender. “You want another rye?”
“He’s got all the money in the world and he wants to be governor?”
“That’s what he says, anyway.”
“He ain’t nobody.”
“He must think he’s somebody.”
“Yeah?”
“He says so. He’s rich. Today he says the other guy is no palooka. It’s just an act.”
“Rauner says that?”
“He said it today. The other guy ain’t no palooka. It’s an act.”
“What is he then?”
“A conniver.”
“Yeah?”
“You’re rich, you can say what you want. It don’t mean much, but you can say it. You want to be a conniver? Okay with me.”
“I ain’t rich,” said Slats.
“Nobody is rich like Rauner. He says so himself.”
“I like the palooka,” Slats said. “You’re a palooka, you have friends. Rich guy? All you got is cigars and platitudes. And then it’s wake up and more platitudes.”
Comment by Macbeth Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 7:14 pm
===Balanced the budget. HUH??? Baloney.===
Bruce Rauner is either $3-$6 Billion short in his budget ideas…
===Gonna sell 9 planes. Great that you stole BR’s idea!!===
So, you should be happy…
===Stopped the pay of the legislators. RULED ILLEGAL===
Use the “Search” Key, “Glorious Leader Quinn & the Banana Republic”…
===Where is the outrage from all you Quinnsters???===
As a Republican who dinged Dems for blindly supporting Rod, knowing full well he was terrible for Illinois, so as a loyal Republican, I wont go back on a promise I made to myself to never blindly follow a GOP Blago version.
I can’t vote for Quinn, won’t vote for Rauner, but I won’t stay silent as a phony sales campaign is the Nominee’s path to be the Illinois Executive. Sorry.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 7:19 pm
===Where’s the outrage?===
What’s the big deal? He stole an idea?
I was driving down the highway this afternoon and I heard Brucie say, “Pat Quinn is not the folksy, bumbling fool he’d like us to think he is,” and I laughed and laughed so hard! I’m glad to see that at least he has a nice sense of humor.
Seems like Brucie has a thin skin and the Trib poll got to him and he felt the need to lash out. He wants to change reality rather than accept that the electorate ain’t buyin’ what he’s sellin’.
See, I dropped a couple “g”s just to make him feel better.
It’s just like the economic cycle of boom and bust, Brucie. You’re losing to the worst governor in America. Get used to it!
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 7:29 pm
well, the Bears beat the 49ers, so who knows!?!
what we do hope is that you get better Rich!!!!
Comment by Amalia Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 8:49 pm
Ah, October is right around the corner. Those pesky feds and that $55 mil anti-violence scandal.
Enjoy!
Comment by Wally Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 8:52 pm
@Wally
What if them feds give say the gov is clean? Then what?
Advice to the Rauner campaign… if you are going to make a big deal about the governor that you are facing being under a federal investigation, it is probably best not to hold a fundraiser with a governor under federal investigation.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 8:54 pm
1. I don’t believe that poll remotely.
2. Ever since, the (unnecessary) “I’m Pro Choice” commercial was released my Christian friends have echoed this exact previous comment from Frenchie Mendoza. EXACTLY. They are seriously considering doing the Topinka Snub and voting Libertarian.
.Frenchie Mendoza - Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 2:16 pm:
Lawn party this weekend, the talk took (to me, at least) an unfortunate turn toward the “what’s the deal with Rauner?”
This from my GOP-friends. They weren’t enthusiastic — especially after his pro-choice television ads this past week. The ads, apparently, really bothered folks. Not sure why the GOP candidate isn’t an actual GOP candidate. Mixed messages, confusion. Then: “Who’s the libertarian guy again?”
Not good, I’d say.
Comment by Rhino Slider Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 9:30 pm
@Ducky LaMoore: Good point.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 9:36 pm
The Catholics I talk with, and I live in a heavily populated Catholic area, are voting for Rauner. Not because of one item or 2 items, but for several reasons.
Comment by Wally Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 9:41 pm
Wally - so they aren’t catholics?
Comment by anon Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 9:57 pm
Lest anyone forget that the Tribune is capable of playing games with polls,
Three weeks before the 1996 election, the Trib ran the following headline with the linked story:
Poll Puts O’malley Out Front
Democrats’ Devine Trails Him By 38%
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1996-10-14/news/9610140146_1_devine-cook-county-democrats-clinton-vote
Of course, as we know, that poll was as Bob Uecker might say, “just a bit outside.”
Here’s what actually happened three weeks later:
O’malley Shocked By Devine
November 06, 1996|By Andrew Fegelman and Nancy Ryan, Tribune Staff Writers.
“Cook County State’s Atty. Jack O’Malley was ousted from office Tuesday by attorney Richard Devine, a protege of Mayor Richard Daley, ending the Republican’s six-year control of the prosecutor’s office…”
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1996-11-06/news/9611060236_1_democratic-wave-democratic-party-democrats-and-fewer-republicans
Some of us knew at the time why this poll from this pollster may have been so far off. Here’s why:
“The poll was conducted by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect,…..Company president Nick Panagakis said his firm did polling for O`Malley….but stopped before conducting the Tribune poll.”
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1992-10-06/news/9203310513_1_tribune-poll-chicago-tribune-market-shares
So, in other words, the Tribune thought it was fine to hire a pollster who had been the pollster for one of the major political figures they were polling.
Might be defensible until said pollster misses on a poll by 44 points in favor of his former client.
AP Research may be fine, but when it comes to Tribune polling, I’m just saying.
Comment by Michael Westen Monday, Sep 15, 14 @ 10:25 pm
A single poll will never reveal the entire story. Thankfully these days a median is used between the various polls that withstand statistical significance to create a more developed snapshot.
Comment by Jorge Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 12:02 am
I get the impression that Rauner’s political gurus from out of state underestimated how much vitriol and money was going to be thrown at him to attack the Everyman Schtick, and effectively so far. At least for now, Rauner has lost control of the political conversation, as he is now the issue, not Quinn or Rauner’s proposals.
It is still Rauner’s race to lose. He isn’t anywhere near losing, but he is leaking, and tough questions over his strange budget mathematics are just beginning. The challenge is whether the gurus accurately recalibrate and shift, because Everyman, Term Limits and Anything You Want to Hear will not hold going down the stretch for a Republican in this state. Hint: it’s time to be a Governor, not Jerry From Next Door.
Comment by Percival Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 2:25 am
Here’s the link to the Wall Street Journal quote:
http://online.wsj.com/articles/political-diary-quinn-has-big-lead-in-new-poll-1410807983
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:19 am
Also, maybe I’m wrong but I do believe I remember Rick Pearson saying on TV that even though the Trib poll just says it’s of registered voters, that in fact all of the respondents were screened and only the responses of those who said that they were either likely or sure to vote were included in calculating the results.
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:33 am
To the original Jack… Jack O’Malley,
O’Malley wasn’t duped in any way, or even lulled into anything.
O’Malley wanted to save cash, maybe to run for governor, we will never fully know, and by going on the cheap…
…and being pummeled by, you guessed it;
A Ground Game.
===Might be defensible until said pollster misses on a poll by 44 points in favor of his former client.===
Also…”Punch 10″. Just saying.
You never won, until you won. Any…any campaign that believes any poll that’s has them leading, and…you don’t finish, that’s not on the poll/pollsters, it’s on the campaign.
It’s like Bill Brady’s Senior Staff Crew; they chose to ignore Chicago and Cook, and suburban women, but didn’t ignore the measuring of drapes, and focusing on transition instead of GOTV.
Jack O’Malley lost to hubris, a lack of a buffer to “Punch 10″ and just not spending the needed monies to make up for weaknesses.
Rauner appears to be spending and will spend. O’Malley, like Brady had zero ground game, Rauner is “attempting” to make others think he has a ground game, and the only fear is the hubris turning angry for Rauner.
Quinn?
The Unions will not, won’t, not even an option, lay off the has to defeat the Scott Walker, Union bashing, collective bargaining busting Bruce Rauner. The GOTV that made up 17 points against Rauner, is going after Rauner in these weeks for, according to them, their collective existences.
So, I see nothing from O’Malley campaign that mirrors that here.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:40 am
I see this conversation carried well into the morning hours.
Anyway, I hope you are better this morning, Rich.
Speaking of Tribune polls, here is a new poll in which there is very strong support for a minimum wage hike (and term limits), and strong support for the millionaire surcharge.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-illinois-referendum-questions-met-0916-20140916-story.html?track=rss#page=2
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:45 am
The accuracy are these polls always amazes me. I *never* participate in a poll (of any kind). In this day and age of data crunching I am surprised that anyone does participate. M2CW
Comment by Late to the Party Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 7:04 am
Everyone seems to basically be arguing that it is inconceivable that Pat Quinn is up or inconceivable that a near majority of likely voters identify as Democrats.
I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
Maybe the Tribune poll is wrong. But we should assume it is correct until actually proven otherwise.
Given that this poll was based on actual interviews, I tend to give it much more credence than the automated polls.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 7:12 am
I’m nobody nobody sent ’cause I’m da’ guy dat does the sending . . .
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 7:17 am
Although the methodology is flawed, this may indicate that the “millionaire vulture capitalist” line is working on one side while the “fake pro-choice Republican” perception is working on the other side. At the GOP gatherings I attend I hear the latter. Rauner is really probably the stalking horse for Rahm and Rahm is not so popular these days.
Comment by McHenryMike Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 7:19 am
anon
curious if you check this a question.
–Wally - so they aren’t catholics?–
So if Catholics can not vote for Rauner because he is Pro-choice and Quinn is even more Pro-choice are Catholics supposed to not vote at all?
Personally i think all the folks frustrated with the Rauner is Pro-choice message will simply vote based off their other preferences. They may not like it but Quinn is no viable alternative on that issue.
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 7:33 am
I automatically dismiss any poll that polls only registered voters…especially in a mid-term election. What a waste of time/money.
Comment by econ prof Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 8:19 am
Note: ignore polls taken before Rauner announces his intention to make cannabis legal for adults in Illinois — no quantity limits.
Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 8:31 am
Bruce to legalize? He would completely lose his base. I don’t believe it, but I sure hope he campaigns on it!
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 8:48 am
Just looking at final results the past elections, I really believe the +- margin for polls, no matter how scientific is more likely 15%! People tend to change their tune if the latest negative add really hits home. Quinn is probably up around 5% right now, but that can change tomorrow if Rauner moves some funds from his personal account to the campaign. They who spend the most wins.
Comment by OLK 73 Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 8:57 am
“They who spend the most wins.
Signed,
Blair Hull”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:05 am
I saw this on a couple of Facebook feeds over the weekend and the story was behind a pay wall, so I couched it and went on with my day. But this puts a lot more things into context. I know this race is likely to have a two (2) point spread come the wee hours of November 5th, but anything way higher for either candidate cannot be an accurate snapshot given Rauner’s lackluster primary showing and Quinn’s horrendous approval rating.
It is such a shame that these are the two major party candidates from which we much choose.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:05 am
OLK 73: The margin of error is simply a mathematical formula. It is one over the square root of the number of people polled. It says nothing about how biased the questions are or, more importantly, whether the a representative sample was polled.
Since the math used is exponential, you need to increase the numbers a lot to decrease the margin of error a little. If you doubled the number of people sampled in this poll (800 to 1600) the margin of error goes from 3.5% to 2.5%.
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:19 am
Perhaps others like me remember and follow the advice of Mike Royko how hated polls and devoted a column to the suggestion that we all just lie about our voting. I know I do.
Comment by Skeptic Cal Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:20 am
Hope you feel better soon, Rich.
Comment by DuPage Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:44 am
Does anybody remember the poll from Eric Cantors race? That in itself tells you a lot about polls in this political climate.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:46 am
gop (endangered animal)
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:46 am
@Ducky:
No reason for Bruce not to go Free Bird & back legalization for all adults, healthy or not. Legalization is consistent with the “No Nanny State” GOP message and presents the GOP as supporting the healthy choice to booze and tobacco.
Too many born between 1920 & 1960 died young for their love of tobacco and liquor. Supporting the non-toxic cannabis shows vision.
On the other side of the aisle, IL politicos showed they can turn on a dime with gay marriage. The GOP could do it with cannabis, too, and better now than after the Dems support full legalization.
It’s an opportunity for the GOP that won’t last much longer.
Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:27 am