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6 & 8 rankings

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The National Journal has downgraded two Illinois congressional races.

23 ILLINOIS-06 Open Seat (R) Last Ranking: 20

Duckworth will need a sizable wave to defeat Roskam, who’s one of the GOP’s strongest candidates this cycle. […]

30 ILLINOIS-08 Melissa Bean (D) Last Ranking: 28

Despite his cash, McSweeney hasn’t yet shown he’s politically seasoned enough to unseat Bean.

CQPolitics has 8 as “Leans Democratic” and 6 as “No clear favorite.”

Charlie Cook has 8 as “Lean Democratic” and 6 as “Toss Up.”

Meanwhile, Dan Seals continues to make Mark Kirk’s attempt to hide his party affiliation an issue.

Some of U.S. Rep. Mark Kirkâ€™s campaign materials donâ€™t refer to him as a Republican, but Democratic 10th District candidate Dan Seals says he still hopes to tie Kirk to President Bush.

The Highland Park Republicanâ€™s Web site doesnâ€™t have the word â€œRepublicanâ€ anywhere on the front page, and Kirkâ€™s radio ads donâ€™t mention the party, eithe

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 5:58 am

Comments

Propaganda! I will not hear of such about Her Royal Highness Queen Tammy of Hoffman Estates and Illinois Congressional District 6!

Without her, the superfecta of Illinois saviors (Tammy, Obama, gambling tax money, and ethanol) will be woefully incomplete.

Comment by Leroy Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 6:35 am
Someone must be feeding the NJ lines. Last blurb was about Tammy ducking debates and this one is about how great Roskam is? I think the toss-up doesn’t match the description. After all, it’s the national Republicans who have spent 300k trying to pull Roskam out of his hole.

Comment by Old Quack Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 6:41 am
And Rahm has raised millions for Tammy. Should be enough there to let her buy a home in the District as well.

Comment by Truthful James Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 8:07 am
old quack: there does seem to be substantial consensus around the weakness of this year’s gop “crop” for the house. calling roskam one of their stronger candidates may not be the misleading description that you think…

otoh, these ratings seem to be at odds with this:

http://www.constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.html

there are automated phone polls, which is hardly a rigorous survey technique.

Comment by bored now Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 8:23 am
The National Journal was not at the Crystal Lake debate I covered on McHenryCountyBlog.com on Wednesday.

Bean was clearly nervous at McSweeney’s “she says one thing and, then, does the opposite” theme.

Comment by Cal Skinner Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 9:24 am
Those reports are no surprise. C6 is a district that tends Republican. Maj. Duckworth is as strong of a candidate as the Dems will ever see in that district, but it is uphill for her. I expect her to pull it out but it is going to take work.

The real unreported story here is Seals. There has been a quiet but strong effort on his part in a district that should lean Democrat. I suspect that the day after the election the country will be looking at that race as the reason the Dems take the House.

Comment by Skeeter Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 9:49 am
Some of us Republicans in his district wonder whether Kirk is really a Republican as well.

Which illustrates the point that he is an independent who represents his district well.

Comment by Backyard Conservative Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 10:28 am
true enough, bored. the more i see of conflicting punditry, the less inclined i am to believe any of it.

Comment by Old Quack Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 10:50 am
I attended the Tuesday Crystal Lake debate. McSweeney had a habit of responding with the same lines, regardless of what was asked. I think McSweeney nonplussed the whole audience.

Comment by ElaObserver Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 11:08 am
Hopefully the name illustrates my bias. Tammy is a great candidate, running in a tough district, but she had better hope that Cegelis’ ‘04 race wasn’t just a byproduct of Hyde’s partial affliction of PhilCraneitis. That Melissa is doing well is no surprise; she’s smart, message disciplined and has been allowed to stray from time to time. I wish Dan well against Kirk and applaud the attacks on Kirk’s running from his party. For what its worth, try to find Jerry Weller’s campaign website. If you don’t have one is it better than having one and hiding your affiliation?

Comment by Pavich Supporter Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 1:02 pm
Well, the Bean sign is back up at the union bldg on 45 in Libertyville. I guess someone there reads CapFax!

Comment by Pat Collins Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 1:12 pm
The National Journal again is demonstrating that it is out of touch with the district. In fact, a latest poll showed Dave and Melissa within three points of each other. And the National Journal has no clue about the grassroots efforts here in the 8th. To say that he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to beat Bean shows that they really aren’t clued into what is happening here.

Comment by Daniel Darling Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 3:33 pm
Kirk is a wolf in sheeps clothing. Votes with Bush almost all the time and talks like he is an independent here in the district. He certainly is NOT an independent - how can a Deputy Whip be independent?

Comment by Way Northsider Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 4:59 pm
Why isn’t Pavich on the radar? I am disappointed-I mean here you’ve got a Democrat leaning district with Weller who is obviously out-of-touch with his district and finally getting bad PR. (And I don’t mean Puerto Rico) Weller’s numbers were never that good. It doesn’t take a genius to see that the DNCC should get in this district with both feet. To Rahm: Forget Duckworth!!

Comment by Roger Kaputnik Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 7:33 pm
I said it once, and I’ll say it again… Bean wins in a close race and Roskam scores a more decisive victory with 55+% of the vote.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Friday, Sep 8, 06 @ 11:13 pm
Backyard Conservative -

The proof of Kirk’s claims to being independent vs. Republican lie in his voting record. If you examine it closely, you’ll see that those “independent” votes were for bills/resolutions that the Republican politicos knew didn’t matter & either had no chance of passing or were slam dunks — so that Kirk’s vote didn’t matter.

To me, the votes that matter include:
- Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit: Kirk cast the deciding vote to benefit drug & insurance companies but to hurt senior citizens. (HR1)
- Corrupt Congress: Kirk voted for a sham lobby reform act that does virtually nothing to stop the corruption in Congress. He also voted against the more substantive proposal to minimize the influence of industry lobbyists (HR4975 & HR4682). He even voted to weaken the House ethics rules so that it’s more difficult to investigate House members like Tom DeLay & Duke Cunningham who are accused & indicted of wrongdoing. (HR4975)
- Fiscal Irresponsibility: Kirk has consistently voted for budgets that have blown our national debt into the stratosphere with out-of-control Iraq war spending & tax cuts for the wealthiest. He voted to slash domestic programs like Medicaid, education, & environmental protection. (HConRes95, HRes 653)
- Health Care for Veterans: This one really gets me, especially because Kirk is a Navy vet & someone who claims to support the troops & veterans. Kirk has not only opposed efforts to upgrade health care benefits for vets, he has supported some cuts. He voted against opening up the military’s health plan to members of the National Guard & Reserve who are serving in Iraq. (HR1815, HR2528, & HConRes95) As the descendent of an vet, this to me is unconscionable.
- Terry Schiavo: Kirk caved into the religious right & voted to intervene in a private family matter that had already been decided by the courts. (HRC90)
- Corruption in Reconstruction in Iraq & Afghanistan: There’s plenty of evidence & proof of cronyism & war profiteering in our “reconstruction” efforts in Iraq. Kirk voted against an independent commission to investigate how contracts are awarded for military & reconstruction activities in Iraq & Afghanistan. (HAmd45, HR1268). If he’s an “independent”, why wouldn’t he want an independent investigation?

I could go on, but I think you get the point. I urge you to really examine Kirk’s voting record — the facts — rather than listen to his political campaign rhetoric. Actions speak louder than words, as my mother always said.

I want someone representing the Tenth District in Congress who will vote with honor & integrity & will fairly represent our district & our country. Kirk has not shown me that he can do that, and I voted for Kirk before; I think he has failed us.
It’s time for a change & I’m ready & willing to give Dan Seals a chance.

Comment by Mad Moderate Saturday, Sep 9, 06 @ 9:33 am
Mad Moderate is right. Kirk has been a huge disappointment. I no longer trust him.

It’s time for a change. Dan Seals deserves a chance.

Comment by North Shore Mom Saturday, Sep 9, 06 @ 1:38 pm
Hmmm. Why was my post pulled? I said nothing profone, inappropriate, or excessively rabid. All I did was list the facts on some of Kirk’s votes in an effort to point out how he is neither moderate or independent. Is it not acceptable here to discuss the facts?

Comment by Mad Moderate Saturday, Sep 9, 06 @ 5:33 pm
Oops. Sorry…Now my post has reappeared. Maybe it’s my browser. I apologize profusely.

Comment by Mad Moderate Saturday, Sep 9, 06 @ 5:34 pm
In the symbolic world of yard signs:
The competition in the 10th is heating up. At the south end of the district, impartial observers give Seals the edge. All those Kirk signs that appeared some weeks ago have begun to disappear. Could it be a portent for whatâ€™s to come? Perhaps homeowners have taken down all those signs that Kirkâ€™s flunkies planted without the ownersâ€™ permission?

Word on the street is that Kirkâ€™s got telemarketers out there calling owners of corner lots. Signs showed up en masse recently in Arlington Heights to the neighborsâ€™ chagrin who got on the horn to the local Democratic HQ for Seals signs. Too bad Kirk doesnâ€™t have the grassroots groundswell of Dan Seals. NOT!

Comment by nikki carraway Sunday, Sep 10, 06 @ 12:44 pm
I was up in Waukegan the other day. The only Kirk signs I saw were plastered along side Green Bay Road in a commercial lot, which actually looked like it was part of the road’s easement. Guess that was the only spot that would allow them.

Comment by North Shore Mom Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 7:36 am