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* RollCall…
Freshman Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., a top Democratic target this cycle, had a 19-point lead over his opponent with six weeks to go until Election Day, according to a poll conducted for his campaign and provided first to CQ Roll Call.
Davis led Democratic rival Ann Callis, 55 percent to 36 percent, in the survey of the 13th District conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies. Just 7 percent of voters were undecided.
The poll found atmospherics in the district are also stacked against Callis, making it tougher for her to make up ground in the short amount of time left until the election.
President Barack Obama’s approval rating stood at just 38 percent in this Springfield-based seat in his home state.
At the same time, the gubernatorial contest in the Land of Lincoln could also drag Callis down.
Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn badly trailed Republican gubernatorial nominee Bruce Rauner, with 30 percent to Rauner’s 47 percent, according to the 13th District survey.
* The polling memo…
The political environment in the 13th District is favorable to Republican candidates.
Just 24% of voters say the country is headed in the right direction; nearly three-in- four voters (71%) say the country is off on the wrong track.
President Obama has a dismal job approval rating in the district. Just 38% of voters approve of his performance as president, while 58% disapprove – 45% of them strongly.
The Republican leads by eight points (45%-37%) on the generic Congressional ballot, and voters prefer a Republican who will be a check and balance to Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats to a Democrat who will help Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats pass their agenda by a 14-point margin: 53% to 39%.
The gubernatorial race is not competitive in the 13th District: Republican Bruce Rauner leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn 47% to 30%, while libertarian Chad Grimm clocks in at 10%.
Rodney Davis has a significant name ID and image advantage over Ann Callis.
Davis’s name ID is 85%, and his image among voters is 41% favorable/21% unfavorable.
Fewer than two-in-three voters (63%) have heard of Ann Callis, and her image is polarized: 19% of voters have a favorable impression of her, while 17% have an unfavorable impression of her.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 9:55 am
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I really think the DCCC missed a goldmine in Gollin. Running the “scientist” and “teacher” card in a district with the U of I, not to mention the amount of fire his primary machine had, would have been very beneficial.
Comment by Irked Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:01 am
I am curious how much the Champaign Young Dems are to blame for this debacle due to their petulant behavior.
When you win, you get steak. But Callis spent the year running with the Frank and Beans crowd and it shows.
Comment by attn: Big Debbie Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:01 am
What’s it say about the Democratic Party’s ability to pick candidates if Anne Callis significantly underperforms the results achieved by David Gill, who got 46.2% of the vote and lost by 0.3%?
In Callis’ defense, the 19% favorable & 17% unfavorable seems halfway ok.
I would assume that her 17% unfavorable is mostly accounted for by GOP & “Conservatives” who follow elections and hate Democrats.
It’s a little weird Callis hasn’t got better name recognition and have more positive support.
Didn’t Dem establishment clear the field for her and provide her with resources? Aren’t media buys cheap in much of the district?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:07 am
I’m curious how any responsible reporter would publish the results of the same polling firm that said the Mitt Romney was going to win on the night before the election.
Comment by Truth Squad Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:09 am
Davis hasn’t hit the magic 50% approval, but his 2:1 favorable/unfavorable is almost as good.
Comment by Toure's Latte Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:18 am
So Rauner is up by 17 points in an area that includes Springfield and several state universities? Sounds to me like his state-worker-union-bashing platform is winning over more voters than it’s driving away.
Comment by Secret Square Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:36 am
It’s too early to say “stick a fork in her”, but the music has begun.
Comment by A guy... Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:42 am
Secret Square–If Quinn only loses dist 13 by 17%, he’s actually doing better than last time when he lost it to Brady by about 18.5%
train111
Comment by train111 Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:47 am
The only people thinking this has been a race since July have been the Callis faithful and the Champaign GOP Whiners.
After July 4th passed, nothing really shook up Davis, including Callis’ silence.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:48 am
Callis under achieving and underwhelming.
Comment by Apocalypse Now Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:54 am
==Secret Square–If Quinn only loses dist 13 by 17%, he’s actually doing better than last time when he lost it to Brady by about 18.5%==
That was prior the new map. In 2010 the district looked nothing like it does today
Comment by Anonymoiis Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 11:20 am
Anonymoiis–No that is the result put onto the new map. That is not the old map.
train111
Comment by train111 Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 11:34 am
What’s it say about the Democratic Party’s ability to pick candidates if Anne Callis significantly underperforms the results achieved by David Gill, who got 46.2% of the vote and lost by 0.3%?…..Well Said Mr. Nyberg !
Comment by Mcleaniac Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 11:49 am
Davis has been doing a good job, and Callis has been underwhelming.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:10 pm
If I were Davis, I don’t know if I would release such a poll at this time.
It might help dry up Callis’ fundraising (such as it is), but the same could hold true for him, too.
Plus, how do you keep your peeps motivated if it looks like you’re going to win a laugher?
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:57 pm
Callis has been out everywhere and Davis seems to be keeping in his bubble. Not sure what his message is.
Comment by D.P.Gumby Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:44 pm
==- Carl Nyberg - Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 10:07 am:==
The field was cleared of “establishment” candidates, but UIUC physics professor George Gollin ran a hard charging campaign against Callis even though he lost by 20+. Roll Call called him the most influentional primary loser because of the money he forced Callis to spend.
http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/the-most-influential-losing-congressional-candidate-in-the-country/?dcz=
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 3:27 pm
For what it’s worth, with Channel 7 news on in background over the last hour, Rauner going big negative with “Early Release” (at least three times) and “100 Years” (at least twice). Didn’t see any positive spot.
Quinn one positive with “Ford,” and one negative with “Medicaid Fraud.”
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 5:24 pm
Anne will make a good federal judge after she makes Rodney look smarter than he is. No glory in being a madco dem this year.
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Comment by Catalina Tuesday, Sep 23, 14 @ 3:45 am