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* This same ad backfired badly on Dan Hynes in the 2010 primary. We’ll have to see what happens with Republican Bruce Rauner’s attempt at using the late mayor’s comments. I’m assuming Quinn will do what he did in ‘10: Try to gin up a furious backlash on African-American radio stations…
New TV and Radio Ads: ‘Biggest Mistake’
“Harold Washington fired Pat Quinn – we should too.”
Ads follow Monday endorsement by key African American pastorsTwo days after receiving the endorsement of key leaders in Chicago’s African-American community, Bruce Rauner today released television and radio ads highlighting former Chicago Mayor Harold Washington’s blistering 1987 criticism of Pat Quinn.
“I would never appoint Pat Quinn to do anything,” Mayor Washington said at the time. “Pat Quinn is a totally and completely undisciplined individual who thinks this government is nothing but a large easel on which to do his PR work.”
Mayor Washington had hired Quinn to be the city revenue director but fired him eight months later.“He was dismissed; he should’ve been dismissed,” Mayor Washington continued at the time. “My only regret is that we hired him and kept him too long.”
In addition to the 30-second TV ad, the Rauner campaign also launched a 60-second radio spot titled “Biggest Mistake.”
“Pat Quinn failed Harold Washington, and Quinn failed our schools, streets and whole community,” the radio ad says. “Now Pat Quinn wants four more years? Harold Washington fired Pat Quinn – we should too.”
* The TV ad…
* The radio ad…
…Adding… To refresh your memory, here’s Dan Hynes’ 2010 ad…
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:28 am
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Hynes ran this ad and lost, but is there something else to show it “backfired” on him?
Comment by chi Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:34 am
As someone told the mayor last nite “if Mitt keeps spending dumb PQ wins” Looks like Mitt is still on track to derail
Comment by circularfiringsquad Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:36 am
The only difference is that Quinn has had 4 more years to prove what Harold said was true.
Comment by Cassiopeia Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:38 am
Hilarious.
Comment by Bronzeville Lit Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:39 am
And the snake oil salesman continues his attempted con on the AA community. Wonder if we will hear/see these ads down here south of I-80?
Probably about the same time we start seeing those “he’s for my right to choose and won’t touch the same sex marriage law” ads start running. That would sure lock up the base downstate Republicans for him.
/snark
Comment by Roadiepig Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:40 am
When Harold Washington died, Ronald Reagan was still president. This is ancient. If you remember the Washington years, you are easily over 35 but more likely 40.
Comment by Nonplussed Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:44 am
So Quinn helped elect and worked for Chicago’s first African American Mayor and Rauner has never hired an African American? Not sure if this is something Rauner wants to highlight.
Comment by Jeepster Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:44 am
Washington ads backfired on Hynes because Hynes’ father ran against Harold Washington. Rauner doesn’t have that problem. Quinn won’t be able to distract people from what Washington thought of him.
Comment by So.... Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:45 am
That old dog again!?!
Plus, he’s underestimating the African American population. .
Comment by Belle Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:45 am
Between the Mayor Harold quote and MGT, Rauner’s message plan this week seems to be “get the band back together.” Unfortunately, he ended up with the Oneders instead of the Blues Brothers.
Compare Rauner’s messaging week to Quinn’s minimum wage week. Quinn’s message penetrated because of discipline and focus. Rauner can’t decide what he wants to say this week, which is bad news 5 weeks out.
Comment by tikkunolam Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:46 am
Shocking.
I thought the Hynes ad was a home-run, a game-changer.
It was, but for Quinn. Hynes got beaten like a rented mule for it on black radio.
Is it possible the cheez-whiz kids didn’t know that? Why should it be different this time?
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:48 am
I think the advantage that Rauner has with this is he can follow it up with Meeks (still think he should have been his Lt. Governor candidate, but he might not have won the primary then).
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:48 am
key african americans can endorse me,but they are not smart enough to work for me
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:49 am
This ad can’t be the reason Hynes lost… It really doesn’t matter if it’s a Jefferson quote about the constitution or Washington saying what he did then. The only question is, Is it true of his opinion and that of many today in a month? That answer is yes for many. Some undecideds may not know or remember the quote or who the Mayor was. The question is, it taps into the emotions of what polls are saying is essentially an even race. This will help much more than hurt. That is the yardstick to measure.
Comment by Walter Mitty Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:49 am
Wait, someone told Bruce that PQwon last time, right?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:49 am
I didn’t realize that Harold Wahington was that perceptive .
Comment by Leprechaun Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:50 am
What it does is make me miss Mayor Washington and makes me recognize how far short Pat Quinn falls in comparison to Harold.
This is a good ad.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:50 am
Everytime someone starts touting African American endorsements for Rauner, I have to facepalm…
These are the same individuals that do this sort of thing every election, and they are coming in no greater numbers, nor greater prominance, than they ever did.
Yes, we get it conservatives. You found some black friends. Good for you. We succesfully reached out to them many, many election cycles ago. It’s about time you did the same.
Seriously, how racist do you have to be to just naturally assume that every single black person is a flaming liberal, and to be surprised when, lo and behold, a percentage of them aren’t?
Comment by Irked Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:53 am
===because Hynes’ father ran against Harold Washington. Rauner doesn’t have that problem.===
He has a different problem. He’s a Republican. Watch what happens.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:53 am
Running Ads that didn’t work in a Democratic Primary fight are not going to work 4 years later in the General.
This is throwing stuff on the wall to see if it sticks.
The brain trust of the Rauner Crew is running out of ideas.
If Bruce would have ran in the Democratic Primary instead of the GOP Primary….
What is the end game for Rauner’s Crew? How will all this lead to baking the cake? It won’t.
Entertainment value, I like it, political value, it was spent by Hynes, in favor of Quinn.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:54 am
Huh, a white candidate with no connection to Harold Washington is using Harold to beat up on his opponent.
And he’s a Republican — you know, the same party as Bernie “Before it’s too late” Epton represented.
And he’s a Winnetka billionaire who used his wealth and influence to get his daughter a spot at Payton Prep — a spot that would have otherwise gone to a legitimate Chicago resident.
Yeah, this has all the trappings of a winning ad. (I think writing that last sentence broke my sarcasm key.)
Comment by VM Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:56 am
I agree with some of you: Why is Rauner dredging up old stuff that failed the first time around?
Where is kindly, folksy Bruce, who will drive his old van to Springfield and not take a salary?
If Rauner is off-message in regards to positive stuff, like budget/jobs ideas and is just going negative, what does that say about his campaign?
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 8:56 am
Washington to Rauner: “Um, I don’t know you…”
Comment by Irked Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:04 am
I doubt this ad is going to do any significant damage to the support Pat Quinn has in the AA community. And it wouldn’t surprise me if this ad backfires on Rauner.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:05 am
Some great comments by the late Harold Washington.
Comment by Steve Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:06 am
=Does this ad tap into the narrative of an undecided. I think yes more than no.=
So you think this ad is for independent (voting record) suburban white males and females in the suburbs? No, it’s to try and break into Quinn’s base in the African American Community. This is preschool compared to Quinn’s radio ad on Rauner hiring African Americans at GTCR.
=And he’s a Winnetka billionaire who used his wealth and influence to get his daughter a spot at Payton Prep — a spot that would have otherwise gone to a legitimate Chicago resident.=
The clock is ticking on this. My best guess is Quinn unleashes this ad about 10 days before the election, which won’t give Rauner and his campaign team enough time to respond.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:09 am
Even though Harold calling Pat Quinn “undisciplined” and the runner of a “PR plantation” is the pot calling the kettle black, I’d expect the ads to be more effective — who knows how that would be measured — than others Rauner has run. Maybe Bruce has a photo of his wife at a Harold fundraiser, too.
More to the point, Washington probably wouldn’t have come closer than 10 feet to Rauner’s “ideals” with anything less than a 12 foot pole, but I don’t know exactly how Quinn could highlight that, though it may be worth the effort.
Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:10 am
- Waltet Mitty -,
With respect,
A Winnetka multi-millionaire, running as a Republican, pulls this Ad out, in a General Election, that failed to sway in a Primary battle, not in March 2014, but March 2010…
It’s a waste.
If Rauner had run as a Dem, spent $10 million in the Primary to take out Quinn when Quinn’s Crew was at its flattest offset, them drew on of the “3″, this Ad would be so much better in placement and relevance.
How does this Ad help, when it was suppose to help Hynes in the same manner and it failed?
It’s more about “Quinn bad!” than baking any cake. Suppressing votes? Sure.
Zero out of 51?
Yikes.
Again, with respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:10 am
Hmm… The TV ad is not directed at the African American community. I am not. I can bet that TV ad moves the ball forward for the undecideds… I guess I am not seeing race as the issue for TV…It’s a message that resonates and will with undecideds.
Comment by Walter Mitty Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:12 am
===And he’s a Winnetka billionaire who used his wealth and influence to get his daughter a spot at Payton Prep — a spot that would have otherwise gone to a legitimate Chicago resident.===
It’s the Prism Quinn can define Rauber in Chicago, to parents of kids attending CPS.
Tick tock, Quinn Crew, tick tock.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:12 am
what is the size of the buy and where was it placed?
Comment by bored now Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:15 am
- Walter Mitty -
Make the case that undecideds.
Harold Washington has passed for quite some time. Hynes, when he used the Ad, it wasn’t to move undecideds, so what in presentation, Washington’s place in political history, the history of this tact against Quinn, and the messenger, Bruce Rauner, makes this an Ad to sway undecideds?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:17 am
=Running Ads that didn’t work in a Democratic Primary fight are not going to work 4 years later in the General.=
His ads right now are almost an exact replica of Dan Hynes (Harold) and Bill Brady (early prisoner release) ads from 2010. It’s difficult to explain.
What possible connection to Harold Washington does Rauner have? I believe he lived in Chicago jn 1983 and 1987. Someone should ask him if he voted for and/or supported Harold Washington for mayor.
I mean, his campaign has been full of instances in which he’s clearly hoping that voters are stupid. This is just a demographically specific example.
Comment by Snucka Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:18 am
OH Dan Hynes if you just had a little more charisma.
Comment by Obamas Puppy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:24 am
“you are easily over 35 but more likely 40. ” He died in 1987, so if you remember him and were old enough to care, you’re likely over 50.
Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:25 am
Why would Rauner do this? What is the upside? Seems like a campaign that’s grasping at straws.
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:27 am
I might be the only one, but I also could care less about somebody’s criticism of a person almost 30 years ago. I hope I’m not doomed by anybody’s opinion of me that long ago.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:27 am
Who didn’t see this coming? Yeah, it’s been tried before against Quinn multiple times with varying levels of success, but he’s still around. Don’t think it gets Rauner any votes but might keep some folks who remember the Mayor home. I’m on record as not liking either of these candidates, but you have to wonder what could have been if the voters had heeded the Mayor’s words long ago. He’s not wrong.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:32 am
Harold Washington’s words are still effective in getting “all voters” to reassess their opinion on Pat Quinn. It was an effective ad before and it will be an effective ad still. Dan Hynes had other problems working against him in the 2010 primary. This political ad isn’t what sunk Dan Hynes ship.
I was recently told by some of my local 150 union friends that Local 150 is going to be hitting the phones next week and calling voters and telling them to “not” vote for Rauner on Election Day. As Rauner reaches out to various voting groups or blocks to try to solicit their vote, I haven’t noticed Rauner running any political ads to specifically target and entice the union “rank & file” to vote for him. That might be one very important voting group that Rauner should be going after. There are a lot of Union rank & file members who haven’t worked much due to Pat Quinn’s ineffective methods of attracting new business and people to Illinois. Rauner would be wise to seek the union ranhk & file member’s vote while perhaps blasting away at union leaders for their concern with their own financial self-enrichment and power.
Comment by Coffee Cup Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:33 am
Quinn is not even liked in the black community,the unemployment numbers in their community are through the roof and all Quinn can dois attack Rauner for being rich. Quinn can give other peoples money away like raising theminimum wage but he can’t or won’t talk abouthow tobringjobs here to Illinois. The AA community won’t rally for Quinn and unlike Hynes Rauner will not need to win a majority of AA votes to win. Rauner is working the community and spending money on their radio stations I predict this will work for Rauner.Grate Ad A
Comment by votecounter Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:33 am
===This is throwing stuff on the wall to see if it sticks.
The brain trust of the Rauner Crew is running out of ideas.===
He’s getting desperate, and who can blame him? Pat Quinn, a pro at campaigning, is giving the amateur Bruce Rauner a painful lesson on how it’s done. It’s rather like watching a heavyweight boxer methodically dismantle an unskilled, yet overconfident opponent. But it’s a learning opportunity for Rauner.
Rauner says he’s always been successful, but people learn more from their failures than they do from their successes. Quinn is just teaching Rauner how a pro wins an election, a skill Rauner never acquired.
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:37 am
How many people who campaigned for Harold Washington are working to elect Bruce Rauner Governor of Illinois?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:38 am
As a Chicagoan who remembers Mayor Washington, I am deeply offended the Rauner campaign would abuse the memory of the best mayor we ever had.
Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:43 am
- Coffee Cup -
IUOE gave Quinn $250K…
Not $2,500, not $25K, a quarter of a million.
They want more than a passive “No Rauner”, they don’t want Rauner, period….
..,and given the story how Rauner handled meeting the leader(s) of 150, it might be a bit “personal” now too.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:43 am
Enjoying watching the Rauner campaign (and Rauner himself) start to fall apart…his missteps and inability to speak beyond ridiculous talking points are becoming more and more apparent. It’s obvious that the press is starting to smell blood in the water. Quinn, on the other hand, seems to be improving and embracing the campaign. Of course, he’s been there before. Gonna be a wild few weeks….
Comment by Mary Sunshine Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:46 am
Dont want dis a beloved figure but some will remember HW governing skills were zero
Anybody got Jackie Grimshaws # bet she will have thoughts on Mitt
Comment by circularfiringsquad Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:47 am
–Who didn’t see this coming?–
Last thing I expected to see. It was a disaster for Hynes.
–Quinn is not even liked in the black community–
Bizarre statement. You might want to check vote totals.
And some of you really believe these spots are geared toward “undecided independents?” You can’t be serious.
Very, very bad idea, the worst one yet from the Rauner crew. Absolutely no upside.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:50 am
The comments are been split here…I like the ad for a few reasons. Rauner has to get at least 20% of the black vote in Chicago. If even a fraction of the audience remembers that Harold Washington fired Pat Quinn when they’re thinking about who to vote for, I’d say it’s effective.
Also, this is a good opportunity to plug the This American Life on Harold Washington from 1997 that got me interested in him. As someone who was born after he passed away, this was a great intro to an even greater man.
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/84/harold
Comment by Lunchbox Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:50 am
Only one effective message in the whole mess: We trusted Pat Quinn and he failed us. That’s the story that works for the movables.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:51 am
Now, what if rauner ran a positive add with all the black employees of gtcr? Oh wait, we won’t see that add because there were no black employees of gtcr.
Comment by William j Kelly Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:53 am
Did someone on Rauner’s staff read that Clarence McClain died last week and think about this ad?
Comment by Nonplussed Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:58 am
@ Lunchbox:
“Rauner has to get at least 20% of the black vote in Chicago.”
If that’s the standard (pro tip: it’s not), then Rauner can pack it in right now. The fight is about 95% for Quinn vs 90%, and probably much more about depressing turnout in high-D African American precincts.
Comment by VM Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:06 am
The 80s called and wanted their ads back.
Maybe Max Headroom can voice his support for Rauner and/or bash Quinn.
Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:08 am
Also, what’s the deal with rauner donating money to the Rockford republican chairman who compared Obama to a zebra? Does anyone else remember that? What was that all about?
Comment by William j Kelly Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:08 am
Excellent Ad! A+ …hope it runs a lot! (…would love to know w more about the media buys on this one.)
Comment by Gantt Chart Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:10 am
===Rauner has to get at least 20% of the black vote in Chicago.===
Percentages are swell…
Pluralities win elections.
This is about how big a plurality Quinn gets, and how much of a bite Rauner can take away from the raw vote Plurality of all votes.
4 votes for Quinn, 1 vote for Rauner is 80-20 split…
80K votes for Quinn, 20K votes for Rauner is 80-20 split.
Which 80-20 would Rauner want in raw votes to win the race?
Yeah, me too.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:12 am
Hmmmm. I have a hunch that this ad might work better for Rauner than it did for Hynes. I think Walter Mitty might be right, that it is geared towards independents, whereas in the 2010 Democratic primary, I think it was aimed at trying to peel away at Quinn’s support among African-Americans Democratic voters. African-Americans overwhelmingly vote Democratic, so in 2010, I think this ad cheezed a bunch of them off who felt that it was Hynes pandering to the black Democratic voters.
With Rauner, despite his support by a handful of black clergymen, I’m guessing a lot (most?) of African-Americans aren’t planning to vote for him anyway, so what does he have to lose among those voters?
At any rate, it will be interesting to see what comes of this ad.
Comment by ??? Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:12 am
How does this help with Indies.
Because you say it’s so, doesn’t make it so.
Make the case. Hynes had his reasoning, it was clear and pointed, and it failed. It also wasn’t geared toward Indies in a Primary.
So, what is the difference? How is it geared towards Indies? What is different to make it work for a Winnetka GOP millionaire in a General Election?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:19 am
In 2010, Brady let Quinn have Cook County to himself. In 2014, Rauner is fighting for every vote.
Rauner has repeatedly penetrated this voter base which elected Quinn and will continue to do so, recognizing that whatever he gets over what Brady got in 2010 - could be his margin of victory.
Brady almost won, ignoring Cook.
Rauner isn’t doing that, is he?
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:20 am
BTW, where did Bruce Rauner live in the 1980s?
Did he support Harold Washington’s campaign for Mayor?
Pat Quinn did.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:23 am
BTW, where did Bruce Rauner live in the 1980s?
Did he support Harold Washington’s campaign for Mayor?
Pat Quinn did.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:23 am
The biggest difference between then and now is that Rauner really does have a relationship with the ministers who were the top precinct captains to Mayor Washington. This commercial is cut much better than the Hynes commercial was. There’s also no history of discord between Rauner and the AA community. Hynes may not have had the “right” to invoke the Mayor on his own behalf. Rauner has seemingly a better basis for using this footage. No Vrdoliak 29 stains on Bruce. We’ll see.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:34 am
Oh, in my post at 10:12, I meant to say “undecideds,” not “independents.”
Comment by ??? Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:35 am
Like others here, hearing the Mayor speak and seeing him made me miss him. He was one of a very special kind.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:37 am
Wouldn’t it be fun if Quinn responded to this as Rauner would, if the tables were turned?
“THIS IS A DISTRACTION! [finger/thumb wag, and odd blinking] It is a distraction! Bruce Rauner does not want to talk about his terrible management of Florida nursing homes, so now the media is asking about Harold Washington! [More odd blinking] IT IS ALL A DISTRACTION from he real issues, like how Rauner claims to be a successful businessman but then runs companies that get people killed! [final wag of thumb/finger].
IT IS A DISTRACTION I TELL YOU!”
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:43 am
–The biggest difference between then and now is that Rauner really does have a relationship with the ministers who were the top precinct captains to Mayor Washington.–
Who’s that?
==Rauner has repeatedly penetrated this voter base which elected Quinn and will continue to do so–
The Trib poll had Rauner at 12% in the city. Penetrating.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:48 am
Yeah, this is about keeping African American voters home, not turning them into Rauner supporters.
Comment by Peoria guy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:49 am
- bored now - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 9:15 am:
what is the size of the buy and where was it placed?
Bored, hits the nail right on the head!
this is a precision targeted ad, amongst many many others,
It is good overall political campaign strategy, no it will not be played in Cairo Illinois, it will be played in cook region for TV and city for AA radio’s.
this new GOP ability to strategically place media and mail is something the Republican party has never done prior to this election,
mainly because they had no previous candidate with the financial ability to do so, it will be interested to see the final results.
Harold relevance?? well don’t worry the 45+ AA base remember very well who Harold was. looking at this through that prism, as part of a larger overall campaign tactic…its a good piece.
Comment by fair & balanced Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:55 am
Fighting for votes in Cook instead of the collar counties + downstate is a path to defeat for Rauner. If Rauner had the collars wrapped up and knew he’d have high turnout Downstate, fine, take on Quinn in Cook. But he doesn’t.
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:55 am
The real question for rauner now considering all the unemployment in the black( and every other community) is why would he focus so much of his attention on shipping American jobs overseas? Was it just about rauner inc profits? Or was it something ever more insidious?
Comment by William j Kelly Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:06 am
Great ad. Mayor Washington states why he fired Quinn and never pulled any punches. I don’t know about this ad “backfiring” under these circumstances, but the main question is how effective will it be in minority communities. Using the way-back machine (in this case Harold Washington) also shows how long Quinn has been in government, something Quinn never stresses and Rauner always does.
Comment by Louis G Atsaves Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:07 am
===wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 10:48 am:
–The biggest difference between then and now is that Rauner really does have a relationship with the ministers who were the top precinct captains to Mayor Washington.–
Who’s that?====
I believe Rich provided you with a list of ministers supporting Rauner yesterday on the blog. Many of them have large congregations that cover large areas (well beyond precinct lines). Referring to them as precinct captains without any greater explanation may have been taking to much for granted on my part. Those churches and ministers were a huge element of the Harold Washington legacy in Chicago. Having a “Hynes” invoke Harold was seen as a huge sign of disrespect. It won’t be so with Rauner. His history with the community is far more helpful.
Does that help you Sling or are you going to play possum again today?
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:08 am
===The biggest difference between then and now is that Rauner really does have a relationship with the ministers who were the top precinct captains to Mayor Washington.===
Let’s be very clear;
In six weeks, Rauner’s Crew went from a 20 point assured winning situation, to a 3 point win, with Zero idea where his votes were coming from, or how to vote them, given the nervous Nellies election night.
That said, this Ad, from this messenger is NOT about getting votes, it’s about blunting plurality.
Huge difference.
What, these early 80’s precinct captains are going to tell people to… stay home?
This isn’t about ginning up turnout, anything seen in that prism is completely off the mark.
Further, the messenger of Rauner, delivering this Ad is not better than Hynes, it can be taken as an insult that this GOP Nominee knows better, living in Winnetka, Clouting a Daughter over Chicago kids?
It’s a desperate attempt to make relevant anything against Quinn, with no rhyme or reason to a big picture narrative to make the Rauner case.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:08 am
I suspect the under-reported story right now is that Rauner may be losing the GOP base.
I have to agree with YDD who previously noted that the minister endorsements may hurt Rauner downstate.
What are social conservatives who hear this ad (or hear of it — the tea party types sure do like to spread stuff by e-mail) going to do? Are they going to rush out in November to support the pro-choice friend of some many Chicagoans? Or are they going to take the day off?
Rauner seems to be going for personalities and endorsements rather than issues. Talking about school funding will get him support both in Chicago and downstate. Minister and Harold may get him a few votes in Chicago, but will lose him more downstate than he gains.
It is simply poor strategy.
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:18 am
@Oswego Willy –
Everything you just said.
Plus: not only is the problem that Rauner clouted his daughter into a school, taking away a slot from a Chicago resident.
The Republican Party was the vehicle used for a blatantly racist (”Before it’s too late!”) campaign to prevent Washington from becoming Mayor. If you’re going way back, you have to account for that.
Rauner is just opening himself up for attack. Every effort made by Republicans to oppose African American can be driven through the opening that a Republican used Harold in an ad.
Especially in a year where one of the ballot questions is about voter ID.
If this was just a waste of money, then who really cares — Rauner has plenty to spend on mistakes. I think, though, that this has such strong potential to creating a motivation for African Americans to go out and vote against Republicans that it’s harmful.
Comment by VM Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:19 am
A Guy, when you said that Washington’s “top precinct captains” were working for Rauner, I thought, just perhaps, you might have some facts to back up your contention.
Silly me.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:29 am
- VM -,
You are On It…
A “Voter Integrity” program will make this attempt by Rauner’s Crew even more confusing;
Who do you want to vote, who should they vote for, and who do you want to stay home, disenfranchised and confused?
How is that in any way a solid GOTV plan?
It’s not.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:31 am
Dear Rauner Camp,
Please accept my application to run your communications for the rest of the campaign. I no longer fear that you have any chance of winning, and this is starting to be painful to watch.
PQ did not “gin up” a response to the Hynes ad in 2010; support from the AA community poured in like something out of It’s a Wonderful Life.
I am guessing that the Rauner camp tested this ad with focus groups and that the response was very strong. I also am guessing that the focus groups did not include Jacky Grimshaw, Bobby Rush, Danny Davis, Luis Gutierrez, Jan Schakowsky, or any of the other Democratic leaders who helped to make history by electing Mayor Washington. Those of us who remember and revere Harold Washington know that he would have loathed and laughed at Rauner.
So please, dear Raunerites — cut me a big check and let me help you to avoid an enormous embarrassment on Election Day.
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:49 am
===wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:29 am:
A Guy, when you said that Washington’s “top precinct captains” were working for Rauner, I thought, just perhaps, you might have some facts to back up your contention.
Silly me.====
Nah. More like “Clever you”.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:57 am
This ad is going to leave a bad taste, and certainly offended those whose vote he is trying to get.
Did he have to dig up something so far back and throw dirt on it? Seriously 1987 is when Mayor Washington died, and a lot of the voters were not even born then.
Just in poor taste all around.
What Quinn has going is Rauner has enough current problems to work with.
Comment by 3rd Generation Chicago Native Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 11:59 am
To OW’s and other posts, I agree that the number from Cook to look at is the vote margin more than the percentages. For example Quinn had a 501,000 vote margin over Brady in Cook, while winning statewide by 32,000. At the same time Giannoulias had a 457,000 vote margin over Kirk in Cook while losing statewide by 59,000. The difference in the Cook margins alone would have been enough to switch the outcome for Quinn.
Comment by muon Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:07 pm
Soccermom - very well put.
Thoughts - Washington did say it. However, I don’t think this will be well received because, frankly, Rauner has no credibility in the community. It looks and sounds like a bunch of rich suburbanites jumping up and down and saying look at this! Look at this!
I have a question: did Rauner help Harold get elected in 83 or 87? If he had contributed to Harold’s campaign, then this attack might work. If not, he really just should leave it alone and focus on other areas. Somehow, I get the impression Bruce would not have given to an insurgent campaign as Harold’s was but rather would have given to Jane Byrne.
Again, if he had been one of Washington’s financial backers, then it might have resonance. We shall see.
Comment by low level Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:08 pm
(Cont). Moreover, isn’t the message from this once counteracted by Rauner’s ads that those in prison basically serve 150% of their sentences??? There’s a serious disconnect here that Bruce and the Chez-Whiz kids as Wordslinger called them didn’t think through or didn’t take the time to learn. Probably the latter.
Comment by low level Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:14 pm
Word
The Tribune poll is registered voters. Harold was Quinns boss as he says he put him there to put Harold’s plans into action but Quinn used it to build himself up. Can anyone say that Quinn has changed? I did radio with PQ for years. he was always introduced as political gadfly Pat Quinn.
OW Nobody thought this was going to be a 20 point win on either side: this has always been about turnout. If Quinn is so liked in the Hood why did he not risk being introduced @ the Jackie Robinson Rally? Because he would have been booed off the stage! I spend allot of time on the west and south side Quinn is just another Democrat that does nothing but talk. All Rauner has to do is get 500,000 votes out of Cook co not just Chicago and he will win. BTW Harold is like a folk hero still; go into almost any soul food place on the south or west side and his picture is still on the wall. I was just at Wallaces and Harolds picture is in a place of honor.
Comment by votecounter Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:14 pm
“a lot of the voters were not even born then.” Or living in Illinois. Or could give two hoots who the mayor of Chicago is.
Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:15 pm
(or was 30 years ago)
Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:16 pm
(Tips cap with respect and admiration to - Soccermom -. Hate to face off against her, would enjoy to share an office with the likes of her, - 47th Ward -. I would learn loads.)
- muon -,
It is to the plurality; 4 votes a precinct in Cook/Chicago.
That’s the ball game four years ago.
Rauner is failing to see the ying/yang of plurality…
Gain here, lose base voters. Gain there, lose establishment GOP voters…
…and baking that cake without understanding your own bedrock base voters, and moving outward, as opposed to Rauner’s Crew looking a
Outward … first .., (Dems and Indes for Rauner hours after Unity Breakfast), and trying to put to ease conservatives and moderate GOP establishment voters, not courted by that Crew.
“I don’t know you” says Edgar…
They don’t know who they are…says their strategy.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:20 pm
See??? Bruce does have an African American working for him.
Comment by B4L Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:21 pm
OW — I have had the great privilege of sharing an office very briefly with 47th, and I think it raised my IQ by about 20 points. I am not sure those effects were durable, however. (See “Flowers for Algernon.”)
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:26 pm
“Bruce, I knew Harold Washington. Harold Washington was a friend of mine. Bruce, you’re no Harold Washington”.
Run an ad similar to that with Grimshaw, Rush, etc as mentioned above.
Comment by low level Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:26 pm
“This ad buy reminds me of a humorous story of a traveling salesman and a milk machine…”
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:36 pm
- Soccermom -,
Cliff Robertson would be proud of that reference!
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:40 pm
“Harold Washington fired Pat Quinn – we should too.”
A very poor choice of words - to fire - in an ad targeted towards a community that has always felt a disproportionate share of job losses
Comment by low level Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:48 pm
It’s not a bad ad at face value, in that it stings a bit at first, mostly it’s just a little egg on the face.
On further review, even after comments, I’m still trying to figure out who it’s geared towards and how effective it really will be?
Lots of guesses from the peanut gallery but no real direct- this is who were targeting with this ad, these are the results we want and this is why we did it!
I think, sadly, it’s another throw it at the wall and see if it sticks.
Comment by DuPage Bard Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 12:48 pm
Governor Quinn’s problem with Black voters is NOT going away! When Dan Hynes first uncovered and ran Mayor Harold Washington’s words in 2010, I believed them. Four years later, I believe them even more. Exactly what has Governor Quinn done to address failing schools, gun violence, joblessness, etc. disproportionately impacting Black citizens in Illinois? Even Blacks working within State government are largely dissatisfied. #readyforachange #nomoreofthesameplease
Comment by Black Ivy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 1:10 pm
VoteCounter, it’s not a question of whether Rauner should hustle for black votes or try to blunt Quinn’s appeal among black voters. He should.
The question is why is his crew choosing the exact same media strategy that failed so spectacularly four years ago?
Seriously, how does that happen? These guys are pulling down big money for media that moves the needle — for their guy, not against him.
And all they can come up with is a proven loser? No other ideas or approaches? It’ mind-boggling.
This time, I think Rauner is a victim of fraud.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 1:26 pm
The Hynes ad, if memory serves, was closer than 5 weeks out from E-day when it went up? Someone on this blog probably can tells us the exact date? If this backfires on Rauner, he may still have time to pull down and recover, while Hynes did not have any more time to change narrative back to prison ads. Regardless, the Hynes ad about Washington did not lose the election for him. Some polling data or other factual info. may prove otherwise but, short of such proof, correlation does not equal causation.
Comment by Mad County Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 2:43 pm
Rich we’re was Dan Hynes polling at before this add ran do you remember?
Comment by Leprechaun Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 2:46 pm
===Someone on this blog probably can tells us the exact date? ===
All you had to do wss check the timestamp on the video. Jan. 21, 2010. Now, use teh Google to find the primary date, and you have your answer.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 2:50 pm
You get ONE…
https://capitolfax.com/2010/01/23/trib-poll-quinn-44-hynes-40-and-mckenna-takes-the-lead-with-19/
Read the WHOLE thing.
The search key is your friend.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Sep 24, 14 @ 2:53 pm