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* From Rasmussen Reports…
Incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn has edged ahead for the first time this year in Illinois’ gubernatorial race. Among Likely Illinois Voters, Quinn earns 44% support to Republican challenger Bruce Rauner’s 42%. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Indicative of the closeness of this race, however, is the finding that among the 87% of Illinois voters who say they are definitely going to vote, Rauner still barely leads 45% to 44%. But Illinois now moves from Leans Republican back to a Toss-Up on the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
Their last poll, taken in early August, had Rauner up by five.
* Among the 87 percent who say they’re “certain to vote,” 94 percent are Republicans and 86 percent are Democrats. So there’s an intensity gap that helps Rauner.
* Then there’s this…
Is your state better off than it was four years ago?
Yes - 24%
No - 56%
Unsure - 19%
85 percent of Republicans answered “No,” but so did 33 percent of Democrats.
* Quinn approval…
27 percent of Democrats disapproved.
* Obama approval…
11 percent of Democrats disapproved.
* Rauner favorable…
He’s still above water even after all those attack ads.
* Quinn favorable…
24 percent of Democrats view him unfavorably.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:03 pm
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Negative ads work. Governor Quinn running 4 times as many negative ads as Mr. Rauner appears to have taken its toll, though both are still standing.
I’ll be joining Colossus in the bunker until November 5 lol
If this election is about Quinn’s job performance, Rauner wins. If this election is about nearly anything else, Quinn has a better than fighting chance.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:09 pm
To repeat myself. Brady was doing better than Rauner at this point in the race in 2010 and still lost. Rauner is catching fire, but not in the good way.
Rauner’s new campaign theme song is linked below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlcCzkgQChc
Comment by John A Logan Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:09 pm
Given Rauner’s performance so far, it’s safe to presume that if the 6% who never heard of him ever do encounter him that that 6% of the electorate will go to Quinn.
Comment by truthteller Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:10 pm
The more people learn about Rauner, the less they like him.
Comment by Reality Check Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:10 pm
I have always said that Quinn pulls this off. Sad. Dillard would have a 10 point lead if he made it out of the primary. Pitty.
Comment by One of Three Puppets Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:13 pm
Hey, Bruce — where’s the positive ads? Where’s the business successes?
Oh right. Nevermind.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:14 pm
It’s not an interesting Gov Election — expect a very low turnout.
Comment by Belle Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:16 pm
– Governor Quinn running 4 times as many negative ads as Mr. Rauner appears to have taken its toll–
Where do you get that?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:17 pm
Seems and feels about right.
Quinn “leading” well within the MOE.
Obama numbers, if they can offset Quinn brung upside-down, that has the possibility of winning this thing.
Rauner has really weathered the storm in staying on the right side of the favorables.
It stays this close, it will be won with organization, early voting, GOTV, and Election Day…
Rauner needs to “sell” more, it seems if Quinn’s numbers are already upside-down, and still within the MOE, Rauner needs to motivate his Pluses to early vote and show up like the Unions will be doing against him.
Fair, not real great news for Quinn Crew.
Fair, not real great news for Rauner Crew.
Rauner needs a larger margin of plurality to offset an uncontrolled turnout. A close poll like this helps that cause.
Quinn needs to keep the heat on his outside field operations, fearing a Rauner victory. A close poll like this helps that cause.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:20 pm
Rauner can’t even stop the bleeding from Quinn’s first pokes at him. How is he ever going to turn this around?
By the time the election rolls around, Quinn is going to have made September look like a practice jab.
If he has a lead *going into* October? Forget it. Bruce Rauner is way out of his league.
Comment by Angel's Sword Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:20 pm
Also, on the last weeks, Rauner negatives were at 10%, the negative now are considerably higher.
Rauner’s Crew blew 17 points, and won with 60% of those pulling ballots, not voting for Rauner.
Food for thought.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:22 pm
==Fair, not real great news for Rauner Crew.==
It says a lot about how much this race has changed in the past six months that even a small Quinn lead can be spun as decent news for Rauner.
Comment by Angel's Sword Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:24 pm
What really surprises me is only 2 behind. If after all the negative commercials Quinn has run he only up 2 isn’t good for PQ.
If Rauner can get some traction on just one issue its a dead heat. NRI hearings could loom large.
Again this closer than Quinn had hoped after the barrage Rauner has taken.
Comment by Leprechaun Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:26 pm
===It says a lot about how much this race has changed in the past six months that even a small Quinn lead can be spun as decent news for Rauner.===
What?
Rauner is still on the right side of his favorables, that isn’t spin, that is reading the numbers in the poll and understanding the beating Rauner has taken on TV.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:28 pm
Quinn needs to keep the positive ads coming as he gets pounded by the multi-million dollar barrage of Rauner, and gets pounded by the scandal news which begins tomorrow and lasts until November.
Up by 2?
He needs 5, so he is close.
But as I always said - he needs to be ahead by October 1st, or he doesn’t have a chance, so he has a chance.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:29 pm
Poor Illinois, it is starting to seem like November will bring 4 more years like the last 6.
Comment by Rich C Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:32 pm
“Again this closer than Quinn had hoped after the barrage Rauner has taken.”
I’ll bet there isn’t a single person on the Quinn team disappointed by the results of this poll.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM (@MisterJayEm) Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:34 pm
–and gets pounded by the scandal news which begins tomorrow and lasts until November.–
What happens tomorrow?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:36 pm
VanillaMan,
Quinn’s number has been floating around the 41-42-43 mark for the past few weeks. In this poll, it’s not a Quinn surge, it’s a Rauner fall. Rauner had been consistently higher in almost all of the recent polling than 42%.
If you had any apptitude for campaign strategy, you’d know that it’s the negative attacks that are keeping Quinn in the race. Right now, it doesn’t look like Rauner can take a punch. Still a long way to go, but don’t hold your breath waiting for Quinn to stop the negative ads.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:37 pm
One analysis had August/July composite of polls with Rauner up 9%. September has Quinn up .25%. You can talk all you want about MOE, but the momentum is clearly in Quinn’s favor. And with his lead slipping and not even one internal poll from Rauner showing him leading (a telling sign), he brings out the big guns? (Harold Washington?)
Unlike 4 years ago, Quinn has closed the gap earlier and still has actual big guns coming (e.g., Hillary, Obamas).
Plus, you assume Quinn is saving his best ads, both positive and negative, for last. That is a Bill Hyers trademark.
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:38 pm
Willy exactly my thoughts, Rauner weathered the storm . After being drilled and drilled with negatives he is still standing. Not to mention being out spent big time in September.
All the Quinnsters happy as can be with this poll better think twice.
Quinn has battered Rauner like a rag doll in the last 6 weeks and its in the MOE isn’t good for PQ.
I really thought this would be closer to 5-6 for PQ.
Comment by leprechaun Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:38 pm
== Where do you get that? ==
From here https://capitolfax.com/2014/09/25/todays-number-29228/
RAUNER 935 “negative ads” $944,500 - targeting Pat Quinn
QUINN 3,880 “negative ads” - $3.4 million - targeting Bruce Rauner
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:41 pm
===I really thought this would be closer to 5-6 for PQ. ===
LOL
It’s a slog, man. It’ll be a slog to the end. Quinn isn’t popular. Hasn’t been since Hynes whacked him on early release. Worsened after the tax hike. So, it’s a slog.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:42 pm
===Willy exactly my thoughts, Rauner weathered the storm . After being drilled and drilled with negatives he is still standing. Not to mention being out spent big time in September.===
Whoa.
===Rauner has really weathered the storm in staying on the right side of the favorables.===
“Rauner has really weathered the storm in staying on the right side of the favorables, up to this snapshot of where the race is”
Better.
It’s not over, the negatives, and the bottom of where this is hasn’t been reached. At all.
Quinn needs to pound the negatives, Rauner is falling more than Quinn is rising, as - 47th Ward - smartly points out. Rauner’s movement is downward, not upward, and this is big the end of going negative on Bruce, and while Rauner has weathered the storm, make no mistake, there’s no golden sky yet, or a sweet silver song of a Lark…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:44 pm
No way, his strong social conservative streak would have been a big issue.
Considering how the state is and the negative stuff that is getting tossed at Rauner right now, it isn’t to be blunt as bad for him as I thought.
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:45 pm
FKA:
===RAUNER: 11,900 “mixed ads” - $6.8 million - targeting Pat Quinn, supporting Bruce Rauner
RAUNER: 935 “negative ads” $944,500 - targeting Pat Quinn===
I’ll give you a few minutes to see if you can figure out what “mixed ads” refers to. I think this has already been pointed out to you by others, so maybe this time it’ll sink in.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:46 pm
FKA, you skipped this line:
–RAUNER: 11,900 “mixed ads” - $6.8 million - targeting Pat Quinn, supporting Bruce Rauner–
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:47 pm
If you had any apptitude for campaign strategy, you’d know that it’s the negative attacks that are keeping Quinn in the race.
I don’t. I like having a soul.
I have also lived elsewhere and have witnessed positive campaigns which give the elected winners mandates, governing credo, bipartisanship, respect and coalition governments. Illinois needs those things, wouldn’t you agree?
Name three candidates you respect who won on negative campaigns. Somehow you like that?
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:49 pm
I am beginning to change my view that this will be a very close race, as in the last couple of weeks, Rauner has appeared teetering on the edge of an October collapse.
It is still very probable that, nationally, 2014 will be a Republican blowout year because: 1) this is the 6th year of an incumbent presidency, historically a grim time for the incumbent party; 2) the present economic recovery (if there indeed really is one) may be the slowest on record; and 3) the national Democrats have no major achievements to tout other than the tepidly popular (at best) Obamacare.
However, the Illinois governor’s race is so high profile this year that it is taking on many of the trappings of a presidential contest. As a result, Illinois may at least partially buck the national Republican trend. And this will create the fascinating political situation of Midwestern, centrally located Illinois becoming an island in the national political ocean.
Comment by Quiet Sage Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:49 pm
FKA, your forgot to add mixed adds that target PQ. $6.8M more for Rauner.
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:50 pm
===Rauner is still on the right side of his favorables, that isn’t spin, that is reading the numbers in the poll and understanding the beating Rauner has taken on TV.===
Remember the days when Rauner posted 15 point leads? When he had such a big lead he thought he could skimp on advertising? Yeah, those were the days.
No doubt, *nowadays* this isn’t a bad poll for Rauner. But big picture, he’s lost a huge amount of ground fast. Three months ago this poll would be unambiguously great news for Quinn.
So I was just marveling at how far we’ve come in the past few months. Big picture, the fact that Quinn is able to post any kind of lead against anybody is amazing, even for a perennial comeback kid like Quinn.
Comment by Angel's Sword Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:51 pm
I get it Rich its a slog. But my point is what Formerly Known As pointed out on this site. 3.4 spent to 944,500. Quinn has had good commercials all day every day for 6 weeks and he cant pull away. I also get Quinn isn’t popular but he has made Rauner out to be the Devils child.
Comment by leprechaun Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:52 pm
===I don’t===
I know. And yet you continue to offer political advice.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:57 pm
===Name three candidates you respect who won on negative campaigns. Somehow you like that?===
“Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?” Ronald Reagan
“Willie Horton” - George H. W. Bush
“Swift Boating” - George W. Bush
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:58 pm
–I don’t. I like having a soul.–
LOL, when you don’t have a clue, get sanctimonious.
Where are those utopias you lived where there weren’t negative spots in political campaigns?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:58 pm
===Name three candidates you respect who won on negative campaigns. Somehow you like that?===
Name any three candidates who won or lost and didn’t engage in negative campaigning.
What planet are you on?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:01 pm
== I think this has already been pointed out to you by others ==
It has not, that I have seen, until now.
== Mixed == ads are a mix of positive and negative are they not? They are not straight “hit” pieces, but a combination, correct? Am I misunderstanding what a ==mixed== ad is?
Rauner has 4 times as many ==positive== ads as Quinn, Quinn has 4 times as many ==negative== ads, and Rauner has twice as many ==mixed== ads. I was not attempting to misrepresent anything, but thanks for quickly jumping to a condescending tone.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:03 pm
If Quinn wins, his portrayal of Rauner as a cruel
and heartless member of the 1 percent will have helped. And it’s a fair argument.
Unfortunately, this outcome will have no effect on the one percent themselves. They will continue to have way too much influence on the nation’s political system and, of course, there is no plan for the feds to indict any of the executives responsible for the recent financial collapse, even belatedly. In Illinois, they will continue to do just fine under Pat Quinn, no DeBlasio moves planned,I’m sure.
Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:03 pm
OW: Your history lesson shows how negative things have gotten. Reagan’s ad would only be considered negative if you had to put it in a category.
I will also add that with the waning influence of political blogs (and the blogosphere in general), I am not sure swift boating would happen today.
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:05 pm
You’re welcome FKA.
Quinn is not running four times as many negative ads as Rauner. But thanks to your misinterpretation of the date, we’ve got Leprecauhn following you over the cliff. That’s why it’s important to correct misinformation around here. Some people believe what they read on the internet.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:08 pm
PQ has no choice to have Obama come in for him. I wonder how much that helps the undecideds to PQ or Rauner because of it? He will be one of the few nationwide wanting him making a visit.
Comment by Walter Mitty Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:10 pm
America is tired of millionaires that game the system to get rich trying to tell the middle class we’re on your side. They dont buy it from these phonies
Comment by foster brooks Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:12 pm
This could be another
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:12 pm
Does Rauner have a positive message that’s designed for people who aren’t GOP Koolaid drinkers?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:14 pm
Dang it! I meant to type that this could be a repeat of 2010 and the vote differential could be a
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:15 pm
===Reagan’s ad would only be considered negative if you had to put it in a category.===
What part of “Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?”…was…positive?
It’s a negative Ad. Not “had to”, it is.
As for the negative getting worse, dig through history, very few “clean” dirty races - back to Adams v. Jefferson…
===I will also add that with the waning influence of political blogs (and the blogosphere in general), I am not sure swift boating would happen===
…as you comment on a political blog(?)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:15 pm
FKA, what are trying to talk yourself into and why?
A Rauner “mixed” ad is “Pat Quinn bad, Bruce Rauner good.”
Each one is still a negative spot.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:17 pm
Mostly good news for Quinn. We will see if the federal prosecutor’s green lighting the Joint Committee to restart their NRI grants investigation gives Rauner an October bump.
Comment by Urban Girl Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:20 pm
“Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we’re as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions ‘yes’, why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for. If you don’t agree, if you don’t think that this course that we’ve been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have.”
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:22 pm
To the 56% who said we are not better off than we were four years ago, let’s think back. Coming off the Blago scandal, billions unpaid by the state, high unemployment. Yeah, lets go back to that! People are so fickle and angry that they don’t even know what they are fickle and angry about!
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:22 pm
A lot of fodder before we get to the hill where this election is won or lost. Secretly, I don’t think either side would be surprised by poll numbers with certain caveats. They already know where this is. No one can afford a huge blunder from here to election day. It’s old fashioned Big 10 (not lately) football from here on out. Earn every yard, and move the chains. It’s been predestined to be this way. In fact, it’s the only way Quinn could win. It will be a 3-4 point race at the end. Winner TBA. Talking smack now is how you rack up things you regret saying.
It’s a muddy field and it’s still raining. Hang on.
Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:23 pm
“- leprechaun - Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 2:38 pm:
Willy exactly my thoughts, Rauner weathered the storm . After being drilled and drilled with negatives he is still standing. Not to mention being out spent big time in September.
All the Quinnsters happy as can be with this poll better think twice.
Quinn has battered Rauner like a rag doll in the last 6 weeks and its in the MOE isn’t good for PQ.
I really thought this would be closer to 5-6 for PQ.”
Weathered the storm? Another way of looking at it is that he has yet to hit his floor. He will not survive this campaign with greater favorables than unfavorables. It’s just not going to happen.
The Governor, however, is being attacked on issues already known to the voters. He weathered early prison release against Hynes… and the reason Brady stopped running his early release ads were because they weren’t getting any traction.
I’ve believed all along that the Governor was near his floor and no amount of negative advertising was going to take him lower. You can keep him there, but he’s a known quantity. People have already made up their minds. Rauner, on the other hand, has significant room to drop.
Most interesting thing to me was that I the 40% job approval ratings is the highest Quinn’s had in a while.
Comment by Rahm'sMiddleFinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:23 pm
Quinn needs to continue exposing who Rauner is since it all seems to be one big secret. How do you vote for someone who maintains a vague presence? However, no Quinn fan myself, the selection between these two explains alot about why our state is in such discord and disarray. Then again, Illinois hasn’t exactly had stellar, high moral planed politicians, has it?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:23 pm
Reagan ran negative spots against Carter, and Carter ran them against Reagan.
But keep in mind, both candidates were solely publicly financed: a total of $29.4 million each, of which each spent about half on TV. No private contributions whatsoever.
They lived on free media and they campaigned harshly and negatively against each other.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv8AE93RF7k
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:24 pm
Regardless, it is a moot point. The message from this data is not that Quinn is ==bad== or that Rauner is ==good==. That is irrelevant.
We cannot compare ==mixed ads== to ==negative ads==, or even lump them in together. They achieve different things and are effective at different levels, as recent academic research clearly shows http://snsoroka.com/files/2013DaignaultSorokaGiasson.pdf
The purely negative ads are taking their toll on Rauner, and more purely negative ads have been run against him than vice-versa. That is not and was not a comment on anything else, despite the sensitivities of some.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:24 pm
The negative campaign ads that Quinn is doing are working because they have traction. They have traction because they are true … and Illinois voters do not like what they are hearing about Rauner, especially the horrendous nursing home abuses.
Comment by Lake County Guy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:26 pm
wordslinger - respectfully, I disagree but will drop the matter after this. We cannot compare or combine negative and mixed ads into a single category. They are not the same. From the conclusion of the 2013 research study linked to above
== Firstly, negative televised election ads generate heightened attention levels and a higher level of physiological activation in individuals when compared with positive or mixed messages. This finding confirms other international analysis on the impact of negative media content. ==
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:28 pm
To me this is great news for Quinn, because a decent opponent would very likely be beating him.
I picked Quinn to win early on (with my cowardly “subject to change” hedge). I saw a lot of negatives in Rauner early on.
I see the race as what it currently is, a toss up, but a strong GOTV effort could put Quinn over the top.
The NRI issue could also hurt Quinn later, but Rauner is slipping, and there may be the danger that if he falls behind he may not be able to come back.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:30 pm
So Rauner has $12.6 million of his own cash into his campaign fund (not Illinois GOP, others) and is in a dead heat.
I put the over/under on his final contribution at $25 million.
I’m surprised. I thought Rauner would have put in, raised and spent more by now. Blair Hull spent $29 million.
As has been pointed out before, you have to wonder why Rauner didn’t just pummel Quinn during the summer, making him spend money, maybe scaring off potential contributors.
Doesn’t matter now. Here comes the bell lap. See who’s got a kick in the last 10 days or so.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:34 pm
Is Rassmussen a historical republican pollster?
Comment by Republican Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:36 pm
This is the second poll in the last couple of weeks showing clear movement towards Governor Patrick Quinn. It also comes from a pollster whose historical numbers tend to over-estimate Republican support. Further, Quinn has shown an aptitude for outperforming his final numbers. This also applies to other statewide Democratic candidates. Meanwhile, in Rauner’s only race, he underperformed his polling numbers.
All good news for Governor Quinn.
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:46 pm
Walter Mitty:
Obama is not coming here to help sway the undecideds. He’s coming to fire up the base. I’m thinking he’s a little above 53% approval in Chicago.
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:49 pm
Republican: In the 2012 Presidential elections, out of 23 pollsters that did at least 5 polls, 19 had GOP biases and Rasmussen had the 3rd highest GOP bias at 3.7%
Because of it’s high GOP bias, it was one of the bottom rated pollsters
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:51 pm
I doubt that the Quinn campaign will produce much of an effective GOTV campaign for him; but organized labor sure will. By contrast, Rauner will have no ground game to effectively compete.
This thing is far from over, but the trend in favor of Quinn seems to be continuing which is certainly good news for him considering early/absentee/mail voting has begun and will continue through Election Day.
Comment by Down Here Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:53 pm
Snucka… I guess that’s my point. Will that also sway an undecided that our state and country is not in great shape? Unintended consequences I suppose. You may be right, it fires up his base but there are some big numbers upset D’s at both PQ and Obama…
Comment by Walter Mitty Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:54 pm
How about that Walker/Burke race in Wisconsin? Yeah, that one is close!
Comment by CLJ Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 3:59 pm
Quinn is beginning to build a significant lead in the polls over the past month. Ignore the old polls from a month ago before people were paying attention. The last 3 polls have Quinn up 2, Rauner up 3, and Quinn up 11. Those average out to Quinn being up by 3.3%. And don’t forget that the Libertarian candidate on the ballot will take another 1% away from Rauner.
Comment by Ando81 Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:09 pm
Is the Libertarian candidate still on the ballot? Was he included in the poll?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:10 pm
As 47th pointed out the poll is more indicative of Rauner falling than Quinn rising. I would think that the fall is harder to stop, a swing of 19 points (17 up to 2 down) is fairly dramatic for team Rauner.
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:26 pm
it’s gonna be a late election night….pace yourself campers….
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:29 pm
Vanilla Man, meet Daisy Girl.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:35 pm
(Tips cap to - Soccermom -)
Here endeth the lesson.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:39 pm
FKA — The reason Rauner is doing mixed ads instead of straight hits is clear — 6 percent of the electorate has never heard of him. Quinn doesn’t have to remind people who he is, so he can use the full 30 seconds to inform voters about Rauner’s many horrible attributes. If Rauner had 99 percent name recognition, he’d be going full negative, too.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:39 pm
Rauner = 1969 CUBS!
Comment by NewWestSuburbanGop'er Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:44 pm
===Rauner = 1969 CUBS! ===
I don’t think Quinn is as good as the Mets.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:47 pm
Stay the course, Rauner. We right-thinking folks have your back. Rich, do you have a dog in this fight? It seems like you are being a bit harder on the challenger than the challenged. Four more years of Governor Quinn will surely hurt this great state!
Comment by Black Ivy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:48 pm
…And Rauner could turn out to be the 2005 White Sox. Winning it all despite a horrible September swoon.
This ain’t over yet.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:49 pm
The ‘69 Mets were known as the Miracle Mets. They closed with a record of, like, 38-11. If Quinn hangs on to win this thing, I’d call that a miracle.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:51 pm
Soccermom: So clear. So true.
Comment by walker Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:53 pm
“Rich, do you have a dog in this fight? It seems like you are being a bit harder on the challenger than the challenged.”
It’s silly comments like this that confirm that the Rauner backers can smell the smoke.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM (@MisterJayEm) Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:55 pm
Rauner - I remember a team down 0-3, won that series 4-3 went on to win the World Series, after a LONG drought..
…Boston Red Sox!
Eerie, I know.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 4:59 pm
I see very little rauner yard signs in nw illinois, i dont think the local GOP’s are all in on this dude.
Comment by foster brooks Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 5:43 pm
From the questions tab -
“If the election were held today for Governor of Illinois, would you vote for Republican Bruce Rauner or Democrat Pat Quinn?”
No mention of Libertarian Chad Grimm. I find that curious, considering he is on the ballot.
Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 6:17 pm
Just spotted what I think is a new Rauner “mixed” ad.
Caught it out of the corner of my eye on Channel 5 in a watering hole, so not verbatim, but it goes a little something like this:
Opens with a visual of standard, dark scowling Quinn head shot.
Female VO: “Why is Pat Quinn (saying deceptive things, I think) about Bruce Rauner?”
Visual of Blago head enters the shot: “Because Pat Quinn and (insiders, maybe) have been screwing up the state (or something like that).”
(At this point, I started laughing, because I loved the unexpected “scewing up” line. That’s how people talk, and she said it with some moxy).
Then it cuts to Bruce in bright color and goes into a lot of issues and visuals and narration very quickly, I didn’t get it all in one viewing.
One of them was definitely a “responsible plan to raise the minimum wage,” followed by a couple of other things, then a closer of “Bruce Rauner is running for only one reason: to bring back Illinois” (but the visual said “shake up Springfield, take back Illinois).
First impression: Way too busy, too many things going on for :30 seconds. But I absolutely loved the “screwing up” line.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 6:25 pm
–FKA — The reason Rauner is doing mixed ads instead of straight hits is clear — 6 percent of the electorate has never heard of him.–
It’s still a bad idea, I think. There’s only so much you can communicate effectively in 30 seconds.
Plus, why associate yourself with the negative spots? It diminishes the credibility of the message. No one would willingly do that “I approve this spot” line unless they had to.
Rauner has the money to raise his profile and whack Quinn without going the “mixed” route. He’s just had goofy and lousy “Regular Joe” positive spots.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 6:33 pm
How is it possible that a majority say that the State of Illinois is not doing well, but yet the person running the State deserves re-election?
Comment by Just Me Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 6:51 pm
Just Me
“How is it possible that a majority say that the State of Illinois is not doing well, but yet the person running the State deserves re-election?”
What does it say about Rauner that a majority say that the State of Illinois is not doing well but the person running it leads in the polls ?
Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 6:55 pm
General theory is that Ds go home on election day a little more than Rs. That could mean that these polls are a little better for PQ than the numbers. On the other hand, general theory is that undecideds usually break a little better to the non-incumbent. Maybe a wash?
Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 7:45 pm
I love the Quinn ads, he needs 4 more years to fix the state. yeah, right. And I’ve got a bridge.
Comment by sloman2001 Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 7:51 pm
Also, it will be quite a surprise to me if more Rs vote than Ds, simply because there are quite a few more Ds than Rs in Illinois.
And, if Obama approval is still 53% statewide and we assume that he is way upside down among Rs, then he must be in pretty good shape with Is for the numbers to work. Therefore any campaigning he does will not only help with the base, it should help with Is.
Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 7:52 pm
- steve schnorf -,
One of the best and most concise analysis of the snapshot, thank you for that.
I wonder aloud if the President will be able to “activate” the locals not yet fully engaged for Quinn to take up the call and help.
The hardest transfer of loyalty is from one Principle to another with the second’s Crew still lower in playing field.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 7:59 pm
“I have also lived elsewhere and have witnessed positive campaigns which give the elected winners […] bipartisanship, […] and coalition governments. Illinois needs those things, wouldn’t you agree?”
Neither bipartisanship nor multiparty governments are strict goods in and of themselves. It’s the policies that come out of those situations that define whether they are good or bad.
Comment by Odysseus Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 8:25 pm
3 minute simulation of what Mitt will feel like for 5 more weeks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkfVn0Kn_1Y
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 8:31 pm
Rauner new commercial pretty good
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 8:45 pm
If Quinn wins he should put a big thank you ad in all the major newspapers to all the Republicans who keep getting him elected. I mean Kirk Dillard could have been running for his second term now but instead he narrowly lost to the more conservative Bill Brady. This time around he narrowly lost to Rauner in the Primary. GOP Primary voters keep voting for guys who will have a tougher time in the General.
Eventually the Quinn campaign was going to introduce the public to some of the skeletons in Rauner’s closet. The nursing home scandal is real, Rauner’s company indeed bought nursing homes, laid off employees and put elderly people in danger, then sold the nursing home at a profit. They are running campaign commercials actually showing Rauner saying that he’s against the minimum wage and other commercials with Rauner saying that he might have to shut the Government down for a while. Those ads have traction. The race is very close but if Quinn wins he is one lucky politician and it’s the GOP’s own fault for not choosing the right candidate as Quinn was very beatable this time around.
Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 9:46 pm
I think reality is finally settling in for voters. It seems like no one particularly likes Pat Quinn. I mean, does he have any base group that is really enthusiastically in his corner? So along comes Rauner, whose very first move as a relative unknown to the public, his very first move is to try to pretend he is something that he is not. He shoots out of the gate as a total phony. Carhart jacket, Harley motorcycle, $18 watch … give me a friggin break. He starts his campaign by lying. Now he’s finding it is difficult to maintain that lie as he gets hammered in ads.
But back to the reality check. The reality that voters are realizing is that these are the two choices. Nobody loves Quinn, but Rauner looks even worse. That’s the choice. Oh well.
Comment by Filmmaker Professor Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 10:36 pm
The more I have thought about the poll numbers over the past 6 months the more I try to figure out what PQ’s longstanding upside down favorable ratings have meant in this campaign. My best guess is that almost everyone who was going to feel strongly negative about Quinn already felt that way long before the primary, and therefore all the heavily negative ads since the primary had no sizable target audience to move down. If that is the case then one, it’s kind of an almost freaky good news out of bad thing for Quinn, and two, Rauner should have done a lot more positive about himself and wasted a lot less comparative and negative on Quinn.
Lesson there would be don’t bother beating up someone enough people already dislike enough to cost him an election: Sell yourself. But he has pros doing the polling so they must have seen something different than I’m thinking. Still, I already knew what the reasons were to not re-elect Quinn. What I was missing was what are the reasons (other than that he isn’t Quinn) to elect Rauner and I’m still waiting.
Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 10:51 pm
===Still, I already knew what the reasons were to not re-elect Quinn. What I was missing was what are the reasons (other than that he isn’t Quinn) to elect Rauner and I’m still waiting.===
This is real good too.
It’s more glaring every day that other reasons to vote for Rauner are lacking, but the new Ad I saw during the 9 o’clock news in Chicago media market kinda/sorta goes “there”, but it’s better than “I’m not Quinn” as the only driver of the narrative.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 30, 14 @ 10:56 pm
“I have always said that Quinn pulls this off. Sad. Dillard would have a 10 point lead if he made it out of the primary. Pitty.”
And they both have more integrity than Dillard, so I’m not sure what your point is.
“Is Rassmussen a historical republican pollster?”
Historically yes, but they changed hands in 2013 and lean as left as they used to right.
Comment by T.J. Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 3:25 am
Vanilla Man, meet Daisy Girl.
I married her baby sister.
And you’ve completely missed my point if you believe this example applies in anyway to it.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Oct 1, 14 @ 7:43 am
I get the bipartisan sentiment, but I feel like if Rauner wins he’ll work very closely with the worst elements of the Democratic party–kind of like he’s tight with Rahm. Whoever wins will have no mandate. The best thing about Quinn is he isn’t Rauner, while the best thing about Rauner is he isn’t Quinn.
Comment by Carhart Representative Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 8:27 am