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Today’s number: Two-thirds

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Illinois

* Tim Jones writes about the Illinois gubernatorial campaign and state finances…

Largely undebated in the race to run the nation’s fifth-largest state is its crushing pension debt, the lowest credit rating in the U.S. and a budget that will run dry next year if elevated income-tax rates expire as scheduled in three months, cutting annual revenue by about 14 percent. […]

“The reality is so bad that neither one of them can afford to tell the truth in terms of numbers,” said Kent Redfield, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield. […]

For Illinois residents who have watched the state’s finances deteriorate for decades, the race carries with it an expectation that the crisis will be addressed only after the Nov. 4 election.

“This is similar to where we were four years ago,” said Carol Portman, president of the Taxpayers’ Federation of Illinois, a nonpartisan fiscal advocacy group.

“If the tax code isn’t changed and spending isn’t changed, two-thirds of the budget will be used to pay last year’s bills,” Portman said. “It’s a big and scary place to be.”

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:00 am

Comments

should be ideal for a republican. Pay all your obligations and with what is left over shrink government to fit.

Comment by facts are stubborn things Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:04 am
shrink the pie.

Comment by facts are stubborn things Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:04 am
It’s nothin that General Growth can’t take care of….

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:07 am
Redfield is on it.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:21 am
The next Illinois political hero will be the Illinois Governor who actually attempts to fix the financial disaster. He knows that he will be a one-term governor because he realizes that nobody (no matter how sick they are) likes to take their dose of castor oil. They know they will go down in the Illinois political history books as the next Richard Ogilvie. I just can’t see Pat Quinn being willing to make that personal sacrifice for the state of Illinois. Rauner, ahhh maybe? Quinn, definitely not!

Comment by Coffee Cup Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:28 am
We’ve got a legislature that does nothing risky during election seasons and a half-baked job the rest of the time, because they are waiting for the most powerful person in Illinois government to decide what they should do. It’s no wonder things don’t get done.

Comment by Aldyth Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:28 am
The quickest path to the fix is to end the free lunch enjoyed by suburban schools….All constitutional and long overdue.
BTW Durkie opponent McSweeney is whining about this issue like someone is taking something away.

Comment by CircularFiringSquad Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:34 am
Quinn’s on record for keeping current rates. He put out a doomsday budget book.

I guess he could have vetoed the phony baloney budget, and tried to get the GA to get real, but I doubt if they would, and it would have been political suicide.

Something will have to be done in January. What that will be remains to be seen.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:34 am
It finally gets done when the politics of fixing the mess is better then the politics of not fixing the mess.

Comment by facts are stubborn things Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:36 am
No way in the world do I accept the Tea Party/GOP solution to our fiscal problems–cut spending only.

We have a revenue shortage that we can ease through adequate tax revenue and economic expansion like legalizing marijuana.

We know clearly that the trickle down fiscal policies of the right wing hurt state budgets. States that recently implemented these policies are also seeing weak economic growth, or in Kansas, growth is not bringing in enough revenue.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:38 am
If elected officials did what really needed to be done to address of the state’s financial woes, I would bet dollars to donuts that some people on this website would be the ones screaming the loudest.

Comment by Meanderthal Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:38 am
==neither one of them can afford to tell the truth in terms of numbers==

That is it in a nutshell. The Rauner haters are hammering him for not outlining the plan to fix the budget. The reality is that Quinn was Lt. for 6 and Governor for 6 and has never given us his plan either.

That is why I can’t vote for Quinn. I don’t know if Rauner has any viable plan or not, but after 12 years the only logical conclusion is that we know Quinn does not. So one guy may be able to turn us around versus the guy we know for a fact can’t.

If you vote for Quinn you are telling our kids there is no point in trying, just live with a crappy state.

Comment by the Patriot Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:39 am
Redfield’s right on. Portman’s numbers are overblown, but she’s right about the seriousness.

Castor oil? Quinn’s already taken half of what we need, while Rauner won’t commit to anything firm.

Comment by walker Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:39 am
Related and undebated: actual running of government in fiscal crisis: Does Rauner accept resignations and/or fire every agency director effective Day 1? For both: How do you cut major agency budgets to try to “operate within means” with reduced revenues when many big service agencies- DCFS, Corrections, etc- are increasingly run by federal consent decree based on failure to adequately provide services required by law? Is it just leadership or do you need to fund more? Rauner is running the throwback early release ad- what’s his policy or plan about underfunded overcrowded prisons? Etc. Quinn doesn’t seem to push Rauner on it because he doesn’t seemingly have a plan either and if pension reform meets it’s death by court case…

Comment by Bebe Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:39 am
2015 - hold the revenue through entire Fiscal 2015, Jan-June 30th.

2016 - cut the “increase” by 1/2 for Fiscal

2017 - cut the “increase” by the second 1/2 for Fiscal

2018 - back to original levels, “election year”

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:43 am
Budget problem? Just ask rauner for the specifics.

Comment by foster brooks Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:44 am
The fault ultimately lies with the main stream media for not holding the candidates feet to the fire. Other than a little Kanerva v. Weems reporting, it’s like this gigantic issue just disappeared on June 1, 2014. Maybe the Trib’s editorial board is too busy home shopping in Indiana or Wisconsin to be bothered with the state’s debt?

Comment by Jeepster Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:53 am
No need to change things in Springfield. Keep the same Governor. Keep the same legislature. Then don’t complain about state finances.

They voted and signed into law a state budget that was broken before the first vote was cast in favor of it. How shameful was that? They then demand to know what plans others have to fix what they have proven incapable of fixing?

So the plan for many is to keep the same folks around who have failed us? Like asking the same plumber to fix your broken water pipe under your sink. He comes back every day for months and the leak only gets worse. Do you keep calling the same plumber or try someone else?

Plenty of folks around year are supporting keeping the same plumbers around.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 9:56 am
–The reality is that Quinn was Lt. for 6 and Governor for 6 and has never given us his plan either.–

I think those big budget books released every year might give you a clue to the “plan.”

But since you think any l.g. has anything to do with budgeting, I’m guessing you don’t have any clues.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:01 am
CFS: ===Durkie opponent McSweeney===

You can’t be serious!

What next? “Mark Kirk opponent Joe Walsh”

Comment by walker Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:03 am
===You can’t be serious!===

He is.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:04 am
“This is similar to where we were four years ago,”

Yes. Yes it is. Expecting the incumbent to address this issue in a meaningful way is a fantasy, based on the reality we’ve seen thus far.

Although Richard Ogilvie has been dead for years, he had accomplished as much as Pat Quinn has alive.

If Speaker Madigan’s and Speaker Cullerton’s repeated actions publically show us that Pat Quinn ought not to lead on budget issues, why should we take action to reelect him?

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:08 am
‘Governor for 6 and has never given us his plan either.’ I guess those annual budget addresses to the GA and this year’s recommended/not recommended budgets (with all the financial printouts) were not plans. OK, if you say so.

Comment by zatoichi Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:13 am
The problem they both will have is after the bond payments, pension fund payments and mandated federal spending and fund matches, there isn’t enough left for full school funding and running the State the way it should be / needs to be run. You can’t skip the bond payments if you want to keep borrowing, in a few months it will be crystal clear you can’t cut the pensions, it takes the Fed’s to change the matches, and you would lose every voter if you cut school funding further (just look at the outrage from trying to change the formula).

For better or worse, Quinn did propose two budgets and push to keep the 5% income tax rate. And it is a fact the last four years the budget did make the full ‘ramp’ pension fund payments, cut discretionary spending, and gradually reduce the backlog of bills. Maybe not as much as could have been done, but it has been progress.

Given that history, if Quinn is re-elected and the income tax rate re-instated, the State will keep muddling through and slowly improve.

With Rauner, we don’t have a clue what will happen. If you take him at his word, things will be better but the math just doesn’t add up. If you look at his company’s history, he will do a bust-out of the State and in four years we’ll be so broke we’ll be longing for the good old days of Quinn.

Damn, I hate having to defend Quinn …

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:14 am
Just a little historical review. Quinn, Madigan, and Cullerton all came out in favor of keeping the extra income tax for the 2015 budget - essentially endorsing Quinn’s plan. The GA did not follow the leadership in this case. No R’s in support and too many D’s seeing the handwriting on the wall for the November election.

Comment by archimedes Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:22 am
RNUG, can you “pump and dump” an entire state?

Comment by Jeepster Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:23 am
- Jeepster -

I think we will find out if Rauner gets elected. A good part of the State is already partially outsourced; I suspect Rauner would try to outsource most of the rest to his buddies. Over the years I was privy to a number of studies suggesting outsourcing this or that; in most examples the various proposals had short-term savings and long term costs. Once you cut through the verbiage and analyzed the numbers, the taxpayer would have come up the loser. Maybe Rauner could make it work but I have my doubts.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:30 am
==The reality is that Quinn was Lt. for 6 and Governor for 6 and has never given us his plan either.==

Yeah, never mind that he has introduced budgets every single year since he has been Governor. Dope.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:41 am
Yeah, never mind that he has introduced budgets every single year since he has been Governor.

So did Blagojevich. What was your point?

Quinn’s budget didn’t get pass the General Assembly controlled by his own political party. Excuse some people for forgetting Quinn’s proposals because they had the shelf life of a mayfly in Mr. Speaker’s office. I bet MJM couldn’t recall a single Blagojevich or Quinn budget either.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:47 am
@VMan:

The comment said Quinn hasn’t provided any plan. He has. That’s the point. Got it?

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:51 am
I discussed this with an AFSCME member the other day. To some extent it doesn’t matter who wins the race. The Math is irrefutable. The next contract to be negotiated, current ends June 30, 2015, will be harsh for AFSCME. There is no way that State employees don’t take it on the chin. Assuming Quinn is serious that this is his last race he has no incentive to not push for increases in health care costs, pension contributions, no raises, and probably wage cuts. Even with a lame duck 5% renewel it’s going to be bloody and nasty. He however thought PQ would remember the support he is and will get from AFSCME and help them out. I hope for his sake he is right. As RNUG said above no clue what BR would do.

Comment by Mason born Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 10:58 am
Why do people choose a location? What drives that decision? I would assert that work, schools, services, proximity to family/friends, and affordability are the some of the main driving forces in no particular order. Rarely do you see anyone choose to move to a community with few if any services when they have another choice (all things being equal with regard to the other factors). This is only important because the state plays a significant role in providing and funding services. If people are already leaving, reducing funding for services will not stem the tide. If someone is considering a move stripping out the state budget to meet lower or static revenue numbers will not get anyone to move here. Kansas is in the midst of finding out how poorly the approach works, it is likely to cost the governor there his job. We need sensible taxation and a reasonable level of services. Illinois should be able to do that without a tremendous level of pain given we have the 5th largest economy to support the effort.What we lack is political desire or will and enough concern by citizens to make the politicians believe that it should be done.

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 11:12 am
Quote of the Day, from RNUG:

“if Quinn is re-elected and the income tax rate re-instated, the State will keep muddling through and slowly improve.

With Rauner, we don’t have a clue what will happen. If you take him at his word, things will be better but the math just doesn’t add up.”

Comment by Senator Clay Davis Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 11:41 am
Sometimes i think the real reason to vote for Rauner is to get a decent Dem Candidate in ‘18 who might actually get something done.

Comment by Mason born Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 11:47 am
Quinn also provided a five-year budget projection, based upon extending the 5% rate. Unlike Rauner’s, Quinn’s numbers actually add up.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 1:21 pm
Quinn proposed various budgets. Then signed off on clearly broken budgets. By doing so, he did us a disservice, as did the rest of those elected in Springfield. A strong leader would have vetoed the budget and called the legislature back into session. But then again, it is an election year . . .

So do we keep calling the same plumbers who don’t get the job done?

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Thursday, Oct 2, 14 @ 2:45 pm