Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Poll: Quinn over Rauner 44-40

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls

* A new We Ask America poll conducted for Reboot Illinois has Gov. Quinn leading Bruce Rauner by four points, with Libertarian candidate Chad Grimm scoring 6 points. Quinn’s 44-40 lead is outside the margin of error for the first time in a WAA poll and the governor appears to finally be shoring up his base, while Rauner may have some weakness developing Downstate…

Perhaps the biggest piece of good news for Quinn is the 62-14 lead he registered among respondents in the city of Chicago. That’s a 4-percentage-point bigger lead in Chicago than Quinn registered in the Sept. 2 Reboot Illinois poll. Among respondents in Chicago in the three earlier Reboot Illinois polls, Quinn led Rauner 65-18, 59-18 and 62-18.

In the Cook County suburbs, Quinn polled slightly ahead of Rauner — 44.5 percent to 43.9 percent — in the Sept. 2 survey. Quinn scored a huge increase in suburban Cook in the new poll, finishing ahead of Rauner by 27 percentage points, 58-31. […]

The new poll also is the first for Reboot Illinois in which Quinn leads among women voters. After trailing Rauner by 4, 7 and 5 percentage points, respectively, in three previous Reboot Illinois polls, Quinn finished ahead among women this time, 44-36.

While Rauner continued to lead among downstate respondents, his 47-32 lead in this poll is considerably smaller than in any of the previous Reboot Illinois polls. There was comparatively little change in the collar counties, where Rauner led 54-36 in the new poll. In the previous poll, on Sept. 2, Rauner led in the collar counties by 25 percentage points, 57-32.

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:25 am

Comments

Seems to indicate that as more people get to “know” Rauner they are not liking what they are learning? Still, until we see a series of these polls that are consistent I will remain unconvinced it is anything but a dead heat. And..44% might be more but a majority it is not. Were I the Quinnsters I would not feel all that great about the fact that their guy cannot pull a majority, although they only care about a win ultimately.

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:33 am
Given the last couple of years, this should have been a easy win for the GOP, and yet, Rauner has found a way to let Quinn back in the race.

Comment by frustrated GOP Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:37 am
JS Mill: Bill Clinton became president with 43% of the vote and didn’t pull 50% in his re-election. I bet you he feels great.

Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:40 am
===In the Cook County suburbs, Quinn polled slightly ahead of Rauner — 44.5 percent to 43.9 percent — in the Sept. 2 survey. Quinn scored a huge increase in suburban Cook in the new poll, finishing ahead of Rauner by 27 percentage points, 58-31. […]===

Well, thank goodness that GOTV the Rauner Crew had in the Primary showed they can really deliver and…

It’s going to be won on the streets, early voting, getting “honestly, truly” Plus voters vote.

The Unions made up 17 points on Rauner and ole Slip and Sue, Quinn keeping it this close is not a good sign.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:40 am
- JS Mill -,

What do you call a candidate that gets below 50% but beats the field?

Winner.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:42 am
Another day, another view.

Still don’t have a good feel.

(Whenever I see that kind of movement among suburban women, I think Terry Cosgrove.)

Comment by walker Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:43 am
It’s good to see that Rauner’s John Burge impersonator is winning him support in the AA community…

Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:43 am
Yeah, remember when the Republicans were humbled that George W. Bush didn’t get 50% of the vote and they all said that Bush and the GOP had to take into account the perspective of all Americans?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:44 am
If the GOP wants Illinois to use a voting methodology like Instant Runoff Voting or Condorcet, one of them should sponsor that bill. I will help them make the case for it.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:46 am
===It’s good to see that Rauner’s John Burge impersonator is winning him support in the AA community…===

AA churches on Sunday, “old, angry, white, male” on Monday…

It’s like adding supporters so you can later repel them, to see who stays…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:48 am
Not surprised about the downstate shift. Seemed like Rauner was barely on the air with commercials in September in my market while Quinn and pals kept the hits coming. The Rauner ads did start up again this weekend though.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:55 am
Some interesting notes about undecideds:
12.5% of dems undecided to only 4.2% of GOPers
14.6% of women to 5.1% men
17.3% in Chicago to 7.4 in suburban cook, 6.3 in the collars, an 12.6% downstate

Those numbers stack up very well for Quinn, as they’re mostly out of his bases of support. If he can continue to bring his core voters home then this lead likely grows.

Comment by MoreNumbers Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:55 am
All- I get it, a win is a win. @OW & nonplussed- there are certainly multiple examples. I guess that is just me, I like to win decisively and do not always feel good when it is by the skin of my teeth. But, I don’t give it back either (the win).

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:55 am
Rauner has a low, really low ‘ likability factor’ to me, and that combined with his shiftiness regarding his businesses, he will lose.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 10:59 am
I’m going by memory here, but it seems among the polls the largest discrepancies by far have been in the Cook suburbs. Some have had Quinn upside down, some Rauner.

Quinn had a 36% favorable rating in the Tribbie poll that had him creaming Rauner.

I doubt if it’s all sunshine and kumbiyah in that Rauner war room. Got to be a lot of fingerpointing going on.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:00 am
- JS Mill -,

No worries, with respect.

This “lead” for Quinn doesn’t take me off the fine of “I dunno” - I don’t know who is going to win this thing.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:01 am
-no real change in the suburbs-
54-36 from 57-32…. Margin of error? maybe
But a change from 25% to 18%….7%….. seems like a bigger deal to me than reported.

Comment by in the know Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:01 am
Rauner reminds me of Tim Matheson’s character in “Black Sheep”. Tim’s character - who was running for the Governor of Washington state - always had to change clothes before separate events. He wore work clothes to meet with the loggers’ union, a flannel shirt to a “Rock the Vote” concert and a suit for fancy events. Bruce is a lot like that. Is that a bad thing? Perhaps. I do have to give Gov. Quinn points for consistency. Consistency allows officials like Pat Quinn and John Shimkus and Dick Durbin the freedom to be themselves - specific interest groups be damned.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:02 am
By Rauner’s own definition, he is going to lose.

He has fallen to 14% in Chicago. I think that is actually worse than Brady.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:03 am
YDD, Brady took 17.41% in Chicago in 2010.

Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:05 am
Re: downstate. My sense is that Rauner’s triangulation on social issues (the TV ad saying he’s pro-choice etc.) is coming back to bite him.

Comment by Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:07 am
who is worried??not me..Brucie’s out of state campaign brains will figure this out and pull him across the finish line..LOL oops..the same guys who took him off the air after the primary?? Let me think about this..

Comment by Not Rich Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:08 am
Despite all the complaining, negative ads work…again

Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:10 am
There you go.

I defer to the Captain.

Rauner is actually doing worse in Chicago than Brady.

How is this possible?

Pretty simple. The campaign strategy is fundamentally flawed.

Never, ever, ever spend money to remind your opponent’s base that there is an election.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:11 am
**the same guys who took him off the air after the primary?? **

Rumor has it that wasn’t his “out of state campaign brains” - that was Bruce Rauner himself, who didn’t want to spend his own money when polling had him up big.

Comment by AlabamaShake Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:12 am
VMan has always said Quinn has to be up by 5 to weather the storm of NRI hearings.

Not that we agree on much, but his general political nose often seems to find the right trail. We shall see how those winds blow.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:12 am
some of those numbers have moved too much for me to feel comfortable about their accuracy. Either the last poll or this one has to be off in some demos/regions. Numbers just shouldn’t move that much that quickly.

Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:12 am
**VMan has always said Quinn has to be up by 5 to weather the storm of NRI hearings.**

VMan also seems to be ignoring that the the Dems most likely have a better GOTV operation, and if Rauner is tied, or even up by 1 or 2, going into election day he likely loses.

Comment by AlabamaShake Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:14 am
Just to recap:

WAA June: Rauner +10
WAA early July: Rauner +12
WAA late July: Rauner +14
WAA August: Rauner +13
WAA early September: Rauner +9
WAA late September: Rauner +3
WAA October: Quinn +4

Comment by Angel's Sword Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:16 am
Just to nitpick, the margin for error is plus OR MINUS 3 percentage points, so this is not strictly outside of the margin for error. It could be, at the tails of the probability curve, 41-43 for Rauner or 47-37 for Quinn.

Comment by Ray del Camino Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:18 am
I’ll bet anyone a $20 gift card the negatives on Rauner are sticking and staying…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:18 am
Rauner has allowed Quinn to define his business record unanswered.

Very strange. And probably too late to do anything about it.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:18 am
WAA August: Rauner +13
WAA early September: Rauner +9
WAA late September: Rauner +3
WAA October: Quinn +4

Now, compare that to PQ’s negative ad buys. Tracks pretty well.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:18 am
===- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:18 am

WAA August: Rauner +13
WAA early September: Rauner +9
WAA late September: Rauner +3
WAA October: Quinn +4

Now, compare that to PQ’s negative ad buys. Tracks pretty well.===

“I’ll bet anyone a $20 gift card the negatives on Rauner are sticking and now showing up in polling…”

Now, better.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:21 am
Since Ken Griffin is divorcing his wife, who is the founder of Reboot Illinois, and We Ask America typically skews Republican, I am guessing PQ is really up 8%

Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:25 am
That Cook suburban flip looks a bit too dramatic to be credible. I do believe that Rauner would win . . . today. Leaking, leaking, leaking.

Comment by Percival Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:26 am
The sampling demographics shifted a bit between this poll and the last Reboot poll from September. The sample of Democrats increased by about 3 percent and the sample of Republicans declined by about 1.5 percent. The sample of Independents dropped by about 1.5 points. So almost a 5 percent sampling change toward Democratic voters. Not suggesting anything tawdry, just noting the difference. Polling firms do modify their samples as elections gets closer. But that’s the big question. Which poll will best predict the composition of the electorate? There’s definitely a sense that accurate polling is becoming more difficult.

Comment by Illannoyed Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:29 am
===Polling firms do modify their samples as elections gets closer===

Stop trying to “unskew” the poll. These are self-identified party affiliations, not pre-chosen percentages.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:30 am
The latest polls are obviously good news to an unpopular Quinn. They are painting the race as tipping slightly to him.

NRI is still looming for Quinn, but if he’s not implicated, it might not do much for Rauner.

The race is still pretty much a toss up, but things have been breaking Quinn’s way.

I would like to see Quinn try to pin Rauner to his past positions, when he was against raising the minimum wage, against unions, against Medicaid expansion, etc.

It can’t or shouldn’t be that easy, in my opinion, to pivot, after the statements Rauner made before he was nominated.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:32 am
With a third party candidate that is polling anywhere from 5-8 points, Quinn doesn’t need to reach 50%. I don’t get why people make such a big deal that he is hovering in the low 40s. Thats good enough to win, folks.

Comment by Voice of Reason Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:35 am
Agree with Anon. The more I read/see Rauner, the more I don’t like him. His likability factor is very with me. If he vanished from the whole scene, I would like him better.

Comment by Big Joe Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:38 am
Speaking of unskewing polls… 538’s pollster ratings are informative:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

WAA has had a 1.5% GOP lean.

Also, its rated pretty poorly.

Comment by AlabamaShake Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:44 am
The downward movement in the polls for Rauner also has to be making a number of GOP legislative candidates unhappy/nervous. If voters are losing their interest in Rauner, they may very well lose their interest in showing up to the polls at all. A lot of these same candidates hoping to ride in on Rauner’s coat tails and simply do not have the ground game of their own to compete with their democratic counterparts.

Comment by Hacksaw Jim Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:45 am
If you go legal on us, we’ll hurt you and your family.”
I will bury her
I will make her radioactive

I want to see the poles after this commercial airs.

Comment by foster brooks Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:46 am
===Stop trying to “unskew” the poll. These are self-identified party affiliations, not pre-chosen percentages.===

Not trying to “unskew.” Just noting that the demos have slightly changed and saying that this isn’t particularly unusual.

Comment by Illannoyed Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:46 am
Negative ads having an impact. And that Washington mayor ad probably helps in Central Illinois.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 11:48 am
This is neck and neck. Coffee is for closers. Quinn has shown he knows how to close the sale with voters. He won’t be out-worked down the stretch.

Rauner is reeling like a prize fighter in the 12th round, trying to keep his legs under him until the 15th. This fight will be decided by the judges.

28 days to go. Pass the popcorn.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:00 pm
I think it’s more embarrassing for the polling company than anyone else. This is the same company that was 17 points off in the Republican primary. Why would we think they are accurate now?

Highly unlikely for numbers to “surge” one way or the other (and then back again) a month before and election when both candidates are funded to the hilt. I would say it’s more the nature of unreliable touch tone polling technology.

My advice-these numbers are just as reliable as their pre-primary polling numbers–not very.

Comment by Michael Westen Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:05 pm
I don’t believe this poll or the hype! Just the sheer thought of another four years of Quinn makes me shudder. I have to believe a majority of my fellow Illinoisians agree.

Comment by Black Ivy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:07 pm
Weren’t Rauner’s primary numbers soft in southern Illinois?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:08 pm
===I don’t believe this poll or the hype! Just the sheer thought of another four years of Quinn makes me shudder. I have to believe a majority of my fellow Illinoisians agree.===

So if you don’t shudder…the poll is accurate?

What if you twitch? If you twitch, will a majority of Illinoisans do something else?

What if you blink only one eye? Is that when the hype is at the right level?

It’s a snapshot, taken with all the other polls, but if you get a chill, runny nose, and headache, that’s a cold not an indicator of polling accuracy.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:11 pm
==Speaking of unskewing polls… 538’s pollster ratings are informative:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

WAA has had a 1.5% GOP lean.==

They’re also the only pollster that has had Rauner ahead in the past month. I just answered a YouGov survey on the IL races, so they should have new numbers soon.

Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:19 pm
Alabama Shake - I wouldn’t take FiveThirtyEight’s words as gospel truth. Silver has made a pretty nice career out aggregating poll results to predict outcomes, but by no means is he perfect. Check out the Princeton Election Consortium’s fact check of Silver’s election forecast if you really want to read some political intelligence. http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/06/sam_wang_factchecks_nate_silver.html#063642a

Moreover, if you really look at the numbers behind those rankings, it’s a relatively small sample size for WAA, considering the number or polls they administer on a regular basis.

Comment by Rick Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:22 pm
Michael Westen

“I think it’s more embarrassing for the polling company than anyone else. This is the same company that was 17 points off in the Republican primary. Why would we think they are accurate now?”

Are you forgetting the late heavy union backed effort to support Dillard that nearly shifted the GOP primary away from Rauner. The poll was off because many people, who had never pulled a GOP ballot in their lives, crossed over to vote for Dillard?

Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:29 pm
Schnorf:

The election has no longer become a referendum on Pat Quinn.

It really is that simple.

Rauner has actually reinforced it is not a referendum on Pat Quinn by running those dopey ads proclaiming he is a social moderate in the suburbs.

Why would you want to make this election about abortion and gay rights if you are a Republican?

All I can figure is that Rauner has been personally stung by some of this stuff, and he is unable to compartmentalize the attacks on his candidacy from the attacks on his personal reputation.

When I saw the ads, I was boggled.

Why would you spend money on ads that automatically encourage independent women to question your position on abortion?

Political malpractice in my view.

Ditto the high profile campaigns in the African American community.

As an earlier poster points out, and I have said before: maybe you think it makes you look smart, but the GOP base believes every African American minister in Chicago is corrupt.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:32 pm
VMan also seems to be ignoring that the the Dems most likely have a better GOTV operation

I’m a Chicagoan. Your claim about my ignorance is only embarrassing you.

Quinn can win, but right now I still see him coming up short. The difference is with those claiming they will be voting for Grimm. Half of them won’t be voting for him on Election Day.

And yeah - that includes the Democrat’s GOTV work.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:37 pm
Oct/7/ 2014 Quinn in a landslide! Rauner better keep working this race is not over.
Madigan and Cullerton must really be beating the bushes.

Comment by Mokenavince Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:40 pm
One way to turn these negatives around for Rauner would be to produce a commercial with employees/management of one of the companies that Rauner’s group bought, reorganized, and made profitable under his ownership.

There has to be many to chose from, right?

Maybe they are just saving these for closer to the election …

/snark

Comment by Roadiepig Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:40 pm
Grimm could be Rauner’s grim reaper.

Comment by Mokenavince Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:41 pm
PS., Did anyone else notice how the Tribune editorial board framed the governor’s race on Sunday? That nugget seemed to be setting the table for a Rauner endorsement.

Comment by Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 1:03 pm
Given that third parties got 7.28% in 2010 and 10.96% in 2006, the idea that Chad Grimm could score 6% is totally conceivable and that probably has the Rauner people pacing the floors at night

Comment by train111 Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 1:13 pm
“the GOP base believes every African American minister in Chicago is corrupt”

Oh, you know us so well YDD. You certainly never inject your own biased view of us into your statements. Good grief.

Comment by liandro Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 1:39 pm
Quinn’s a lucky guy. First Brady and then a sophisticated, unlimited funds guy who inexplicably runs the worst messaging campaign in memory.

Comment by Illinois taxpayer Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 1:43 pm
How can this be happening again? Dillard would be winning hands down. Rauner needs an endorsement from Capitol fax!

Comment by my two cents Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 1:49 pm
===Dillard would be winning hands down===

And you know this how?

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 1:50 pm
I’m wondering what Rauner’s thinking has been on spending.

He’s raised something north of $40 million, including $14 million of his own cash.

You’re in that much, what’s a little more? It’s a zero-sum game.

Now he’s in a dogfight. You have to wonder if another $5 million or so in the summer would have really had Quinn on the ropes.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 1:53 pm
For Fake Immediate Release

Dillard Forever Campaign
Excuseville, Illinois
Contact: (800) IM-DOPEY

DILLARD ANNOUNCES FOR UNPRECEDENTED 36TH TERM

Excueville - Today, the Forever Dillard Campaign announced they are whining for an unprecedented 36th term for the governor of your imagination…

———————

Dillard lost, and lost, and…

No one has a clue how anything would have ended up.

Dillard lost. Get over it.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 2:00 pm
===Dillard would be winning hands down===

==And you know this how?==

Trust. Dillard has been around long enough to have trust that he is not up to something. What I am hearing anecdotally from canvassing GOP types in the Cook suburbs is that a lot of voters no longer trust Bruce Rauner. The revelations are taking a big toll. The Sun-Times article today on this Kirk woman is not going to be any help on that score.

Comment by Percival Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 2:07 pm
The grass always greener, percival. Time to move on now. This isn’t a sophomore dorm room.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 2:09 pm
Fortunately and unfortunately for Mr. Rauner, voters don’t know him outside of this campaign. That gives him the advantage of being able to define himself, but the disadvantage of allowing his opponent to define him. His immense wealth should have been used to paint a positive picture of his business successes, and to lay out a positive argument for how he would run state government in an efficient manner. Of course he would have to contrast that with what he sees as Quinn’s failures, but the emphasis should have been on defining Bruce Rauner for voters who don’t know him. That is the big missed opportunity for Rauner.

Now that he squandered that opportunity and opted for an overwhelmingly negative argument, voters still know little about him. They know that he is rich, and that he has been attacking Pat Quinn aggressively. Importantly, they do not know much about how he actually made his money, or what type of person he is. Quinn and his allies are now using those very facts against him.

All of this ties in to what Oswego Willy said earlier today — the fact that only Bruce Rauner or those paid by Bruce Rauner ever come out to defend him against attacks. There is not one person who voters know and can trust who is willing to come out and say, “I know Bruce Rauner. These allegations are not consistent with the Bruce Rauner that I know. You can trust him”. This is partially due to the fact that there are very few Republican leaders who carry much weight with voters. And those who do have the gravitas (Jim Edgar, Jim Thompson) simply don’t know Bruce Rauner well enough to say those things.

Knowing that attacks would come, Rauner had the resources to build his positives rather than just trying to run up Quinn’s negatives. That would have given him a reservoir of goodwill with which to weather these storms. Instead, the negative ads accentuate the aspects of Rauner with which voters are uncomfortable and are left with very few positives against which to weigh them.

Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 2:10 pm
—…but the emphasis should have been on defining Bruce Rauner for voters who don’t know him.–

He spent millions on Regular Joe the Outsider.

It was preposterous and easily trumped. So you’re left with his business record, as defined by Quinn’s negative spots.

Right now, all he’s got is he’s not The Other Guy.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 2:16 pm
Oh, I don’t doubt that he thought he was introducing himself to the voters. It was just poorly done.

I still believe that if he would have presented an honest portrait of himself, along with reasonable policy proposals, he would be much better able to handle these attacks.

Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 2:42 pm
Just the sheer thought of four years of Rauner makes me shudder. I have to believe a majority of my fellow Illinoisians agree. (Not sure about winking or shaking though.)

Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 2:58 pm
“I’m wondering what Rauner’s thinking has been on spending.
He’s raised something north of $40 million, including $14 million of his own cash. You’re in that much, what’s a little more? It’s a zero-sum game.”

Word, with respect do you think in Rauner’s mind if he puts in another $20-25 mil of his own now, then that’s $35-40 mil of his own total. then it clearly looks like he’s trying to buy it? that combined with the $18 watch, Carhartt, van, etc… like a catch 22?

Comment by PoolGuy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:06 pm
===Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 12:32 pm:

Schnorf:

The election has no longer become a referendum on Pat Quinn.

It really is that simple.===

Actually Y Dog, it’s still a referendum on Pat Quinn in most of the state. Nothing is that simple. It’s too far out to consider any poll to be on the dime. They’re all pretty close, and they see-saw a bit by the day. There will be plenty of ups and downs for both of them over the next 4 weeks. There are smart (even diabolically smart) people operating both operations. This one will go down to the tape. It’s always been meant to. The good news for you and a number of others here is: That is the only kind of race Quinn can win. He’s an alley fighter to be sure. He’s also extremely undisciplined. We’ll see plenty of that. Hold on the balloon drop. This one is a long way from a decision. I’m sure Rauners team is ready and has prepared for this kind of sprint.

Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:07 pm
In Troy McClure voice: “Hello, I’m Bruce ‘Not Quite a Billionaire’ Rauner. You my know me from the millions I spent trying to persuade Illinois I’m a regular guy’.”

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:09 pm
My quick and dirty assessment of this race is that imperfect will win out over nuts, just as happened in the 2012 presidential election when a deeply flawed sitting President prevailed over a candidate who was so out of touch that, to him, the bottom half of American society were just worthless moochers. It also reminds me a bit of the 1991 Louisiana governors election, when a certified crook (who had, however, been governor before) prevailed over a white supremacist. His campaign slogan: vote for the crook, its important.

When a gubernatorial candidate in the most fiscally-challenged state in the nation proposes increasing spending and greatly cutting taxes at the same time, that is nuts. Perhaps the polls suggest that even the average Illinois voter is beginning to realize this.

Comment by Andy S. Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:10 pm
A Guy

” He’s also extremely undisciplined”

Has Rauner really been all that disciplined? His early campaign was an attempt to deceive voters that he was one of them. Next he had a plan, which he never released. When he started coming under attack his responses were indecipherable legal mumbo jumbo. Rauner has dropped over 20 points in some polls. The same polls show an extreme dissatisfaction with Quinn. He has not been able to resonate with people, including me, who want a choice other than Quinn. I’m not sure that I can say Rauner is any more disciplined than Quinn.

Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:20 pm
Believe it or not, I’m going to give partial support to Percival.

We don’t know how Dillard would be doing in some alternate universe, but Dillard would not have been vulnerable to the kinds of hits that Rauner has drawn for his vulture capitalism, etc.

Dillard also is better known to voters (because he keeps running and losing, running and losing, but still…) Given that there’s a significant chunk of voters who still don’t know who Rauner is, I’m guessing Dillard’s name recognition might have helped.

Hey, could somebody find out how late Garcia’s delivers?

Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:31 pm
Rich

“And you know this how?”

Sorry to disagree with you, but Dillard would have had extensive union support. AFSCME was with Dillard. Quinn was toast. Many of the other unions were also. The union GOTV, plus the GOP support would have won it for Dillard easily. AFSCME was totally committed to beating Quinn, until Rauner won. AFSCME would have backed Dillard in the GE.

Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:44 pm
Two commenters I respect greatly,

If the Hawks best the Kings last year, they would have gone on and won the cup…

If the Cubs would have finished off the Marlins, they would have gone on to win the World Series …

My point?

The semis are there to reduce to the finals, even Primaries do that. The string case can be made the Hawks and the Cubs would have moved on to win it all. They were both better teams than who they would’ve have faced, but never got there.

They all, Hawks, Cubs, Dillard…

You got get there to be in the discussion.

As a Republican, My Party hasta get over these “woulda coulda” - it ain’t helping.

You both may be 100% right, but I guess it being moot takes away the luster of looking at it.

With much respect…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:52 pm
Rauner is his own top campaign contributor. Wealthy candidates who also serve as their campaign’s top contributor rarely win. Voters perceive that he is trying to buy the office of Illinois governor. This does not sit well with voters.

Comment by Enviro Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:55 pm
==AFSCME Steward - Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 3:20 pm:

A Guy

” He’s also extremely undisciplined”

Has Rauner really been all that disciplined? His early campaign was an attempt to deceive voters that he was one of them. Next he had a plan, which he never released. When he started coming under attack his responses were indecipherable legal mumbo jumbo. Rauner has dropped over 20 points in some polls. The same polls show an extreme dissatisfaction with Quinn. He has not been able to resonate with people, including me, who want a choice other than Quinn. I’m not sure that I can say Rauner is any more disciplined than Quinn.===

A Steward, he’s way more disciplined than Quinn. People “like you” want a choice other than Rauner for your own reasons. Quinn will do despite what he’s done for you (to you) in the recent past. Rauner just happens to scare you more. Maybe because he’s smarter. Maybe because he seems more determined. I’m not sure. He wasn’t trying to “deceive” voters with a watch or a coat, he was trying to relate to them or have them relate to him. Do you know he doesn’t wear a Timex and wear a Carhart? It appears he does. I know plenty of wealthy people who don’t flaunt Rolexes or Porsche’s. Did he relate to you? You say no. Did he ever really have a chance to, given his position on Pension Reform? I have to believe he did not. He’s not prone to saying a lot of stupid things on the stump or in press conferences.

In fact, you are among those who constantly chide him for not providing more answers or information. There’s a certain kind of discipline it takes to limit your off the cuff, ad-lib remarks and resist temptation. It frustrates you, but it is discipline. I’m willing to keep an eye on things over the next few weeks and watch both guys. I think Quinn is more likely to make undisciplined gaffes. The temperature is higher now, and Quinn has been there before. Every day is a new level of intensity for Rauner. We’ll see how they do. Quinn can’t usually seem to help himself. He’ll be asked for answers over the next few weeks on some hot topics about NRI. Let’s watch what he does.

The most effective commercials Rauner has are of news commentators whacking Quinn for a guffaw or Quinn speaking himself. I’m guessing there may be a few more of those in the can and a few more forthcoming as Quinn speaks. Time will tell.

Respectfully I would submit, Rauner never had a chance to win you over or a strong majority of folks on this site.

Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 4:23 pm
“He’s not prone to saying a lot of stupid things on the stump or in press conferences” Unless of course you count his self-contradictions.

Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 4:37 pm
===Respectfully I would submit, Rauner never had a chance to win you over or a strong majority of folks on this site.===

Your personal arrogance, and I submit this as “Exhibit A” probably explains a great deal why you face the headwinds from me.

To ===Respectfully I would submit, Rauner never had a chance to win you over or a strong majority of folks on this site.===

“Your Guy”, - A Guy… -, and remember when I had to rind you you “own” him, lacks honesty, integrity, ethics, morals.

You can’t win me over by lying. You can’t win me over with an interpretation of fact, that contradicts real fact. You can’t win me over by calling what you do is fine, and when others do it, it’s bad, and you can’t win me over with a compass of shard right is measured by the amount of money “donated”.

Are you insinuating that I’m not intelligent enough to decide what I think is a criteria for a good governor?

Are you saying that the over a year Your Guy has been running, I don’t “know” enough to like him?

Are you saying I’m dumb to the facts of his hypocrisy?

Are you saying that it’s my fault I don’t like him?

Your lack of respect of people here, like Rauner’s own contempt for those questioning him, that is what people are judging too.

You - A Guy… - questioned - steve schnorf - yesterday. You questioned and mocked that with background how can HE not have met him. You meet everyone, so, - steve schnorf - didn’t make a point to meet him?

You can’t help but look down, like Rauner looks down at Career Politicians and Union Bosses. You know it all, it’s out fault, it’s my utter ignorance, that I haven’t given Rauber a chance…for over a year.

Your lack of respect is becoming more apparent. Rauner’s distain for facts, especially facts not helpful to him, is becoming more and more transparent.

Don’t lump me. Don’t lump anyone else.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 4:44 pm
OW, Are you under the odd understanding that I’m trying to win you over? Not. I don’t spend a lot of time dispelling your foolish self logic here. You arrive at conclusions asking yourself questions. If I come across arrogant to you, there’s little I can do about that and still present the point I may be trying to make. I asked Schnorf a question that struck me. He invited such questions. I didn’t believe by his response that he took umbrage to my question or thought it arrogant. In fact, I think he was pleased to answer it. I was surprised he didn’t know a guy who was our party’s nominee. Is that really so shocking and mortifying to you?

On A Steward, I get where he’s coming from unless his moniker is a complete lie. I don’t think it is. While we don’t agree all the time, I have respectful back and forth with him/her. (I’m assuming him) He’s in a very particular position. He’s looking out for more than himself. He’s got something riding on being right besides being the coolest guy in Oswego. If he’s wrong, people will hold him accountable. I may try to make a case to him, but I know from the outset it’s almost surely a losing battle. His organization is bruised from lousy treatment from any number of lousy legislators and governors who permitted the bad policy. When I say to him with respect, that he wasn’t a prime candidate to support Rauner, I’d doubt he’d disagree. Unlike you, I’ll let he and Schnorf speak for themselves. And Rich for that matter. Your whole “me too” routine is rather odd. It’s why I don’t really engage you. I know what I’m going to get; either a goofy “rephrase” followed by your self pronounced “better” or a parsed mess that’s nearly impossible to keep up with. So, kindly and respectfully butt out occasionally for your own sake. They’re smart guys. They don’t need you.

Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 4:58 pm
===I don’t spend a lot of time dispelling your foolish self logic here.===

Don’t spend time or can’t dispel?

Dope.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 5:02 pm
======I don’t spend a lot of time dispelling your foolish self logic here.===

Foolish self logic, I took that as facts you can’t refute.

Just like Rauner and his Crew.

Because - steve schnorf - is beyond gracious, it doesn’t mean it was bad form.

===It could just be that you didn’t care to.===

Says it all.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 5:08 pm
A Guy

“Did he ever really have a chance to, given his position on Pension Reform? I have to believe he did not.”

He had an entire year to give his position. What’s stopping him from doing so ?

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 5:22 pm
A Guy

“Respectfully I would submit, Rauner never had a chance to win you over or a strong majority of folks on this site.”

I am a Republican. He had a chance to win me over in the primary. Instead of doing so he basically said that union members are the reason Illinois is in a mess. He has had an entire year to win me over. He has yet to articulate a single fix for any Illinois’ problems. He wants to cut, except when he wants to spend more. He is against the minimum wage, except when he’s in favor of it. He wants to cut taxes, except when wants to increase them. He’s had an entire year, and 7 months since the primary, to show me why I should support him. He hasn’t even made an attempt to appeal to union members. I take him at his word that if he is elected governor he will refuse to negotiate & shut the state down.

Anonymous at 5:22 was me

Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 5:29 pm
“On A Steward, I get where he’s coming from unless his moniker is a complete lie”

Actually I am what would be called a “lame duck steward”. Our steward elections are tomorrow and, I chose not to run again. Maybe I’ll create a new monicker for myself. Considering all my typos, maybe Mr. Clumsy or something.

Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 5:35 pm
Oswego

I understand your position and viewpoint. I know the primary is over and my guy lost. My big concern is why he lost and the mistakes the GOP keeps making. The GOP could have…gasp… had labor seriously backing its candidate. Instead it let itself be bought off by a charlatan masquerading as the guy next store. The guy with all the answers, but no solutions. I believe the comment made earlier that Dillard would have won easily if he won the nomination. As the candidacy of Rauner goes down in flames, the GOP once again on the outside looking in, whining about Madigan and company, fails to beat a very unpopular governor. This should have been an easy GOP win. Instead, greed rules the day, Rauner’s the man, and Quinn’s back for another term.

Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 5:44 pm
- AFSCME Steward -,

I miss the days of My Party when getting labor behind our candidates, not all, maybe not even a majority, but a healthy share of our candidates, and others in My Party never thought anything of it.

What you & - Soccermom -, two I respect here, are trying to back up, I get too, and your response reflects your understanding.

My hope to labor, is that they, as a movement, as citizens in Illinois, look to My Party as an alternative to embrace, not a 2nd choice to send a message to the other party to pay attention. I hope My Party meets labor half way, and we understand that constitutionality is a gift by which My Party can find the common ground to rebuild a fractured relationship.

That is My hope.

It’s up to My Party to embrace inclusion.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 5:55 pm
I glad many think this latest poll Is accurate and Quinn is gaining ground. Don’t be surprised if Rauner surpasses the 20% in cook. Down state will be very strong. Most likely better than Brady and close to kirk. I truly believe rauner will get 55% in collars. Rauner will win.

Comment by ironman Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 6:42 pm
Sophomore dorm room? Did not get that. But I’ll stop.

Comment by Percival Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 6:46 pm
I stepped outside a moment ago and heard the sound of a billionaire squandering millions trying to buy power, not going to happen this time.

Comment by 618662dem Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 6:54 pm
“Sophomore dorm room? Did not get that.”

What if, instead of Mick Taylor, Eric Clapton had replaced Brian Jones in the Rolling Stones, man?

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 7:08 pm
PQ is still the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet.

Comment by facts are stubborn things Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 8:17 pm
===So, kindly and respectfully butt out occasionally for your own sake.===

Really? But you…

===Respectfully I would submit, Rauner never had a chance to win you over or a strong majority of folks on this site.===

You call commenterS out…but you want no response?

I’ll respond. Don’t characterize me.

Dope.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 9:16 pm
**: That is the only kind of race Quinn can win. He’s an alley fighter to be sure. He’s also extremely undisciplined.**

FWIW, I don’t think that Quinn is undisciplined when he is in campaign mode. He actually becomes really focused and, yes, disciplined, when he has a campaign fight.

For all the criticisms I’ve heard of Quinn’s campaign and his staff, he’s run a very disciplined campaign this cycle.

Comment by AlabamaShake Tuesday, Oct 7, 14 @ 9:29 pm
The trend has now become pretty clear; Pat Quinn has taken the Lead and it’s HIS Race to either build upon or hold onto for dear life to eke out another Victory for the Comeback Kid, just like the Mighty Quinn pulled off miraculously against Brady 4 years ago (while TRAILing in the Polls right down to the 11th Hour), esPECially with the mounting (and quite dirty) Billonaire Bruce last-minute Ad Blitz as he has edged now toward contributing $17 MILLION of his OWN dough (nearly mind-boggling, I know!) to try and buy this thing in an all-out, desperate, last-ditch, stretch-the-Truth to the hilt effort at any cost to sneak by somehow…still, I don’t think it’s gonna happen ‘cuz the Quinn Campaign is clearly on the Right Track now, making all the right MOVES on the whole, and gunning it full-steam ahead now toward the Finish Line with NO lookin’-back, the Winner’s Trophy in full view just beyond the Ribbon…!

Comment by Just the Way It Is One Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:11 am