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Poll: Durbin up 51-38

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* From a Jim Oberweis fundraising e-mail sent yesterday…

Here are three quick facts about my campaign to unseat Obama Democrat Dick Durbin in Illinois:

1.) Multiple polls now show me surging to within 6 points of Dick Durbin.

2.) Dick Durbin is nowhere near 50 percent in a single poll.

3.) My campaign needs your immediate help to close this gap and win this race!

Please make your most generous donation of $25, $50, $100, $250, $500, or more to my campaign right now to help me keep the pressure on Dick Durbin. We’re on track to win this race, but we can’t give up now!

My name is Jim Oberweis. I’m a conservative state senator here in Illinois, and I have made it my mission this year to send Dick Durbin packing.

Right out of the gate, liberals - and even some conservatives! - wrote my campaign off as a non-starter. But now, I’m pulling within 6 points of one of the top Democrats in the U.S. Senate!

* It’s a good thing he sent that yesterday, because today…

Seeking his fourth term, Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin held a 13-percentage-point lead over Republican challenger Jim Oberweis in a new Reboot Illinois poll.

Oberweis, a Republican state senator from Sugar Grove, had a better showing among Chicago and Cook County voters than in a Reboot Illinois poll a month ago, but he also lost ground to Durbin among respondents in the five collar counties and downstate. Libertarian candidate Sharon Hansen was the choice of 4 percent of respondents, with 6 percent undecided.

The automated poll of 1,086 likely voters, conducted Oct. 7 by We Ask America, had a margin of error of 2.98 percent with cell phone contacts making up 24.5 percent of contacts. Party identification of respondents was 27 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 38 percent independent.

* Crosstabs…

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:35 am

Comments

I wish Jin Oberweiss would just write a check every two years and go away. This campaign has been a waste of time from the start.

Comment by John A Logan Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:38 am
Mike Frerichs is losing to Dick Durbin, but the good news he is beating Jim Oberweis?

LOL

Sorry, had to be said.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:40 am
I think this is a bit optimistic, but Durbin is leading.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:44 am
New campaign slogan,” If you must drink and vote, drink milk.”

Comment by my two cents Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:47 am
Interesting to see what other polls show during the next week or two.

Did Durbin’s positive ads make that much difference? Would Oberweis be closer with more support from the likes of Rauner, Kirk and the ‘money men’? What difference could that have made in the Gov. race? Can Oberweis further close whatever polling difference exists if those guys unexpectedly do step up at the end? Or is Durbin safe on dry land no matter how high any Republican == wave == may rise?

This has been one of the more curious races this year, despite never really feeling like Durbin was in much danger. Oberweis has come a long way from his earlier races.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:48 am
===Did Durbin’s positive ads make that much difference? ===

I dunno, but Durbin’s first ad was one of the best positive spots I’ve ever seen in my life, if not the best. That can surely have an impact.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:49 am
Also, at least they spelled everyone’s name correctly.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:50 am
===I dunno, but Durbin’s first ad was one of the best positive spots I’ve ever seen in my life, if not the best. That can surely have an impact.===

When that veteran Ad comes on, even now, it gets quiet at the house, as to watch.

Even now.

Durbin is over 50% and allegedly surging. Tough road for Oberweis, and his negative Ad is all over the place. Not helping.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:53 am
== one of the best positive spots I’ve ever seen in my life ==

It really is.

Which is even more interesting, because of that research showing negative ads are more powerful than positive ads, etc. Sometimes the eggheads are just eggheads, and a good ad is a good ad.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 11:55 am
Any chance with Oberwiess on the ticket he is dragging rauner down with him?

Comment by foster brooks Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:01 pm
That 21-point differential for women voters is brutal.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:13 pm
I hear an Oberweis ad just about every morning on WBBM-AM and most of them say something about how awful it is the government works and laws get passed and when Jim’s a senator he will single-handed make sure we don’t have any more pesky laws. And I think “Wait, now he’s an anarchist?”

Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:25 pm
Cheryl, I hear those ads too, the ones attacking “career politician” Dick Durbin, and all I can think is…Jim Oberweis would be a career politician too, if anyone actually liked him enough to vote for him.

Comment by Concerned Observer Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:39 pm
I am sensing a great deal of Durbin fatigue when I travel around the State. Again, the over-sampling of Democrats in this poll make the polling results unreliable in my humble opinion.

Comment by Black Ivy Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:42 pm
== one of the best positive spots I’ve ever seen in my life ==

A re-election never in question, sealed with a single ad. Well done.

Comment by Toure's Latte Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:47 pm
Black Ivy:

Actually, Democrats were under sampled in this poll as well as the Frerichs poll.

In 2010, 44% of voters were self-identified Democrats.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:48 pm
===Again, the over-sampling of Democrats in this poll===

Yes, now WAA is a Democratic pollster. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 12:52 pm
Concerned Observer, I was thinking the same thing the other day when I heard the Oberweis ad claiming he is not a career politician. My first thought was, “No, he isn’t, but not for lack of trying.”

Comment by ??? Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 1:04 pm
Behind every winning candidate is a winning significant other. Where would Dick Durbin be without Loretta Durbin working in the public interest for lower college tuition?

http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2014/10/05/when-interests-overlap-for-durbin-lobbyist-wife-a-563414.html#.VDV-zBY6yL4

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 1:13 pm
Where would Jim be without Delores working as a whipped cream shooter at his ice cream store?

Comment by Del Clinkton Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 1:28 pm
FKA: the research on negative ads is a little more complicated. it might depend on how you define powerful, but i’d suggest that *visceral* connections are more powerful, and that because negative ads can be more visceral than the common positive ad, that negative ads are easier to drive voters your way (whether that is towards or away from the polls).

the durbin ad shows that visceral can cut both ways. if campaign ad makers start turning out visceral positive ads like this one, we may have some different conclusions about what is more powerful. connecting with voters, sometimes in ways that can’t truly be predicted, is key…

Comment by bored now Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 1:33 pm
This poll has Durbin up 2.5 points downstate and 21.5 points in the Cook County suburbs. For Oberweis to have any chance whatsoever he not only needs to pick up all the undecideds but he has to take votes away from Durbin in these two areas. Realistically for Oberweis to have any kind of chance he needs to get Durbin’s downstate numbers down around 40% and that won’t be easy to do, in Durbin’s last two elections he won downstate 60-36 and 56-42, significantly outperforming what Democrats typically do downstate.

Either this poll has to be way, way, way off or Oberweis would have to do an awful lot to keep Durbin from cruising to an easy win.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 1:46 pm
This election can have a happy ending. After Dick Durbin wins the election ,Jim Oberweis can join his wife in Florida. Which of course, means a zero state income tax. Jim Oberweis can also improve his business prospects by hiring Dick Durbin’s son and Loretta Durbin as lobbyists. Illinois could have one less voter complaining about the status quo.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 1:57 pm
Is there some sort of magic number for the libertarians? If they get X percent of the vote they are considered a major party and automatically on the ballot next time etc? without having to file 100,000 signatures ?

Comment by siriusly Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 2:16 pm
What strikes me is the relatively low percentage of people who label themselves as undecided. If that’s the case then Oberweis really doesn’t have anywhere to go to make up ground. People have apparently already made up their mind.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 2:17 pm
@siriusly

5%

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 2:17 pm
bored now - thank you for such an astute and well crafted comment. If the pros put as much time and effort into developing positive ads as negative ones, we may well have a different view of which type provokes more ‘powerful’ reactions and is more effective at moving votes.

My hunch is that the very well done ones, both positive and negative, blow the average ones out of the water and would prove to be roughly equal in terms of their effectiveness.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 2:48 pm
Durbin figured to get about 55-60% since Day One, and nothing has affected that all year.

Comment by Harry Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 4:04 pm
Oberweis is a different breed of cat. He does not mind getting beat. Many politicians are scared to death of getting beat, ever.

Nate Silver gives him a 2 out of 100 chance to win. So, not impossible, but almost.

I’m guessing he’ll primary Kirk in two years. Why wouldn’t he? It wouldn’t be an election if Oberweis weren’t getting beat for something.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 8, 14 @ 4:32 pm