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More bad news for the GOPs - Updated x1

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Illinois
Polls

[Updated and bumped up for discussion purposes.]

The Tribune releases more numbers.

The percentage of Illinois voters who call themselves Democrats is at its highest pre-election level in more than a decade, posing a problem for Republicans trying to win the governor’s mansion and key congressional seats, a Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

The poll found 43 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrats while a little more than a quarter of the voters identified themselves as Republicans. The 17 percentage point difference ranks among the most polarized partisan spreads in more than 16 years of Tribune surveys taken prior to an election day. […]

In 1996, 42 percent of Illinois voters identified themselves as Democrats in the October preceding the election while 27 percent aligned with Republicansâ€”a 15 percentage point spread. Clinton ended up winning Illinois in 1996 with 54 percent of the vote and Democrats retook control of the Illinois House from Republicans after a two-year hiatus.[…]

But the most recent Tribune poll found that even in longtime Republican-leaning regions, the GOP no longer might have the upper hand. In the collar counties, 31 percent of voters aligned themselves with Republicans while 29 percent identified with Democrats. Outside the Chicago metropolitan region, voters split equally at 36 percent between Democrats and Republicans.

UPDATE: Yellow Dog Democrat combed through SurveyUSA’s crosstabs to check the percentages of Illinoisans identifying themselves as Democrats and Republicans against the Tribune’s latest poll. This is what he found:

Month - D/R
Feb- 40/25
March - 40/25
April - 42/24
May - 40/30
June - 46/24
July - 43/22
Aug - 45/23

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 8:33 am

Comments

Rich, you forgot the disclaimer:

“The findings largely represent the mood of the voter, which can fluctuate greatly due to a variety of political or news events. The survey of 600 registered voters likely to vote Nov. 7 has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The results are considered very fluid and could change closer to the election.”

Things could be really bad for the GOP, then again we could be wrong because things are really fluid and people are moody.

Gee, I feel informed.

Comment by Greg Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 11:13 pm
What about this McKenna’s quote about the GOP suffering bad years in 2002 and 2004? Why did the GOP suffer bad years then? OK, in 2004 you had Alan Keyes, but what made the party have such a nervous breakdown that it thought Alan Keyes was a a good idea? What about 2002? I don’t think Durkin and Ryan were bad people (unlike Birkett with his chronic bitterness).

Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 12:38 am
Chicago - bluer than blue, 3 million and shrinking.
Rest of Cook - indigo blue, 2 million and shrinking.
Collars - reddish purple, 3 million and rapidly growing, but slowly losing the red tint.
Downstate - a perfect purple, shrinking except in B-N and Rockford areas, and stagnant in trends.

Appealing to regions is as good a strategy as any. Chicago is a bloc that is near automatic, giving blue candidates a head start and red candidates an albatross around their neck, but even a Chicago-centric can’t win unless they sprinkle some flecks (crumbs) of purple out there for the other 3 regions to feed on. Conversely, a red candidate has to essentially write off one region and throw more purple flecks (bigger crumbs) to the remaining 3 regions to offset the albatross. It’s all a matter of purpling your way to 50.1%, no matter which way you approach it.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 2:17 am
Kinda makes you wonder just how much slime and lies the conservatives are going to keep tossing out in the next 50-odd days… Will it be proportional to their weakness?

My Magic 8-Ball sez: Signs Point to Yes.

We’ve already seen plenty of distortions, hypocrisy and ignorance between the Primary and Labor Day on candidates from Bean to Duckworth and issues from Iraq to stem cells.

When conservatives begin throwing mud at candidates like Seals and Pavich, you’ll know the right’s really in trouble. (And we’ve already seen Kirk and Co go after lil ol bloggers like Ellen of the Tenth.)

Comment by NW burbs Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 2:53 am
Pearson failed to mention how’s JudyBore’s puppy and Brickhead’s plan for public executions will turn GOP (as in MOPE) fortunes around lickety split.
How come he did not quote Chopper Tom or Vandalia Frank? They are the real comeback club leaders

Comment by Reddbyrd Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 5:24 am
The trend toward blue will help the Speaker and Senate President, but probably not enough to give them veto-proof majorities, so the Illinois legislative dynamic probably won’t change all that much. The question is whether the momentum swamps Roskam and Kirk, but it seems way too early to say that it will.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 5:47 am
It’ll be interesting to see what the same poll says about the big congressional races in the 6th and 8th districts. Polls show the 6th district a tossup between Roskam and Duckworth, while the 8th district should be leaning towards McSweeney with that “moderate” guy in the race against Congresswoman Bean.

I think the NRCC’s negative campaigns against Duckworth on the illegal aliens is really going to hurt Roskam to the point that he could actually lose the election.

We’ll see.

Comment by A WISE OLD MAN Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 5:51 am
Not sure how to take the survey, I think that most of us could agree that the Republican party of today is close to the Democratic Party of Yesterday (say, 30 years ago) I think what this is telling us is, the Republicans are looking for a party and a candidate that reflects moral and ethical values along with fiscal responsibility, and this is just not happening with the party now, I will say that at least the Party ditched Ryan and would not let him run again,,,Its alot more than I can say for our Democratic Party, we will stick behind Blago even knowing what we do about him and his ethical problems and all the accusations and a probable indictments that are sure to come at some point, we Dems will Vote him back in office I guess because “we just don’t care” Back to original statement, I think the conservative republican member is lost and does not want to be part of the current party, but they will vote Republican because what we have come to in recent memory is voting for the Lessor of two Evils…..WE no-longer vote for a candidate we like,,,,,,, WE now vote against a candidate we dislike,,,,something has gone way wrong with our system and society that really has no choice and no good people running for office! I say boot em all and start over!

Comment by Big W Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 6:42 am
I’m always interested to see who & where they poll…not to say that there aren’t more Democrats in Illinois though surprising the way they’ve fouled things up over the last 3 1/2 years. Just who do they call, what do they ask & so on. In these many years & with 2 telephone lines & a cell phone I can honestly say I’ve never received a polling call in anyone’s survey ..,.GOP, Dem or anyone. Oh wait I live in the sticks & noone cares!? A poll is a poll is a poll. Unless your running it for a specific purpose germane to what your doing…it’s just questions. You can get about anything out of polling data. People will say anything to a pollster or just hang up .

Comment by annon. in central illinois Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 6:47 am
All the more reason to have open primaries. I’m a registered Dem that will be voting a split ticket.

Comment by Shallow Pharnyx Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 7:00 am
When you have 1 party that screws up like the Republicans have in the last 6 to 8 years and all the scandals you can expect this to happen.What is going to be fun is to watch Madigan try to control the Gov. to keep this from happening to the Dems. The state is borrowed out and all the special funds have been exhausted so where is the money to pay bills come from.I don’t think any sitting legislature in thier right mind will allow massive lay-offs of state facilities in thier area and the Dems will need the Repubs to keep the ship afloat.We all know Blago isn’t a team player.This could be real interesting.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 7:30 am
You’re right anonn in central Illinois.

This can’t be right. The Tribune must be conspiring to sink the joyfull spirits of the SS Podinka. This conspiracy, as you will see, has vast links to many people of power and notoriety, including Conrad Black and Earl Scheib (Earl has them call his family members several times during a poll).

As your supporters, Judy, we will stand behind you until the election is over and then go away.

Comment by Skarfeld Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 7:48 am
I’d like to see these questions. People have a party identification at the National level but I don’t know how it translates into state politics.

Blagojevich and Topinka have these jumbo sized personalities that transcend party in Illinois. I’ve talked with Dems and Repubs and they always have doubts and it never aligns with their party.

I think the bottom line will be if people in Suburban Cook take a risk on her quirkiness and that she’s not tainted by corruption.

I think she could have done more in the African-American community… she should have been out their appluading Daley’s veto of the big box and asking the same questions: why do the Unions only threaten Pols in the African American Community on this issue….

Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 8:06 am
Well, given the recent problems with the State GOP, would you admit you were a Republican in this state? It’s like being an American abroad…you tell people you’re from Canada.

Comment by Tom Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 8:19 am
Wise Old man…you obviously don’t know the 6th District, that won’t backfire…hey NW burbs, guess we should be glad Democrats run clean/honest campaigns…you’re too much! Thanks for always making me laugh.

Comment by Tom Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 8:20 am
Republicans: don’t blame the messenger.

I’ve been blogging this very point for over 6 months.

The percentage of Illinoisians identifying themselves as Republicans started to slide down last August as support for Bush’s war slid, and the percent of Democrats rose.

Those percentages haven’t fluctuated much since February. Go check out the crosstabs yourself at SurveyUSA:

Feb- 40/25
March - 40/25
April - 42/24
May - 40/30
June - 46/24
July - 43/22
Aug - 45/23

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 8:29 am
Wow YDD, did you learn that in poly sci 101?

Comment by Capt Obvious Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 8:47 am
YDD — you are right. The Illinois figures track the Bush figures. The question is how deepseated the anti-Bush feeling is. That can change, but my gut tells me it is too late for the 06 election.

Comment by Truthful James Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 9:04 am
What’s the big surprise?

Illinois has not changed with the times. It has more in common with Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania and other has-been industrial states. As with every has-been, these states are Democratic because voters are risk-adverse, generally older, and union. Since 1982, Illinois has been living off it’s tremendous heritage. As you know, we’re bankrupt now, and using up our credit too. Chicago can’t even get a freakin’ Walmart! Talk about nostalgia blindness.

What was surprising was how long Republicans held offices in Illinois. The long state dominance they held began with a moderate named Thompson, not a conservative. When Reagan changed the Republican party nationally, this didn’t impact Illinois. The Thompson-Edgar-Ryan era is a moderate Republican era. As late as 2002, Ryan took on the death penalty. These were moderate Republicans in a liberal state.

So, what’s the big deal with these numbers? Anyone thinking Illinois is in the same category as booming Republican states is delusional.

Illinois is not Republican. If it was our economy would be booming. Take a look, grab a hammer, and keep nailing plywood over our abandoned buildings.

Move over New Jersey!

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 9:42 am
VanillaMan -

You can always move. In fact, I strongly encourage it.

I’ll just remind you that dollar for dollar, the blue states are actually the largest funders of the federal government and the red states are the largest consumers of federal tax dollars.

Illinoisians pay far more in federal taxes than we get back, so the notion that we’re living off of someone else’s welfare is absurd on its face.

YDD

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 10:17 am
BTW, the conservative Tax Foundation has done a study of federal taxes paid versus federal tax dollars received by state, and it’s pretty clear from their study that blue states are tax donors and red states are tax eaters. Here are their results:

Federal Spending per $ of Federal Taxes / Rank
New Mexico $2.00 / 1
Alaska $1.87 / 2
West Virginia $1.83 / 3
Mississippi $1.77 / 4
North Dakota $1.73 / 5
Alabama $1.71 / 6
Virginia $1.66 / 7
Hawaii $1.60 / 8
Montana $1.58 / 9
South Dakota $1.49 / 10
Delaware $0.79 / 40
Colorado $0.79 / 41
New York $0.79 / 42
California $0.79 / 43
Massachusetts $0.77 / 44
Nevada $0.73 / 45
Illinois $0.73 / 46
Minnesota $0.69 / 47
New Hampshire $0.67 / 48
Connecticut $0.66 / 49
New Jersey $0.55 / 50

Those who are angry that they aren’t getting much bang for their buck should be talking to Denny Hastert and George Bush.

And Capt. Obvious, my only point is that those who are arguing there’s something wrong with the Tribune poll or that this is some sort of temporary blip obviously haven’t been paying very close attention.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 10:48 am
Vanilla,

Do you, like our conservative leaders in Washington, pull your ideas and talking points out of your nose*?

Try a few facts my friend, they might wake you up. When Illinois starts pulling in more Federal dollars than it sends out (like all those “booming” red states you seem to like) then maybe we can have a discussion. But for right now, all those Republican “Welfare Queen” States keep pulling money out of Illinois. Then again, given Bush’s economic policy, perhaps you prefer greed as much as the red states and the Bush Administration too.

* - “nose” is polite way of saying what I’d rather say, but “profanity is not acceptable”

Comment by NW burbs Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 11:33 am
I think YDD’s analysis would apply to a lot of states this election season.

Comment by Scoop Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 11:40 am
NW Burbs

There you go again.

For fair play, I know that you would like to abolish the Income Tax amendment, since it was in that amendment that the Feds were given the authority to take and give on an unequal basis from and to any state.

Comment by Truthful James Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 11:52 am
Hmmm
43% Democrat
31% Independent
26% Republican

And it’s harder for an independent to get on the ballot for the GA in Illinois than it is in any election jurisdiction in the world.

Nah, the Democrats and Republicans of Illinois aren’t power hungry, corruption enabling, anti-democratic, election fixers.

Comment by Jeff Trigg Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 12:01 pm
Re-electing the worst President in modern American history has serious political consequences for Republicans nationally and locally.

The Republican party, particularly in the House of Representatives, is controlled by radicals who want to turn the clock back on American public policy and political history.

Republican neoconservative foreign policy is a complete and total shambles. The Iraq war has become a national and international debacle.

If I were running ads for Democrats, I’d recite a brief summary of the facts in Iraq: then I’d show Bush’s mission-accomplished speech, his “bring-it-on remarks”, and last, but not least, show Cheney’s remarks that “if we had to do it all over again,we’d do in exactly the same way.”

Had enough? Vote Democratic!!!!

It’s almostimpossible for Topinka to overcome the blue wave that is sweeping Illinois and the nation, notwithstanding Blago’s vulnerabilities. I think the Tribune poll is bad news for both Roskam and McSweeney.

Bush, cheny, and Rumsfield have lost credibility. NO one belives them anymore.
Rove’s obvious fearmongering will backfire.I’m predicting that the Democrats will take over the House of Representatives, but not the Senate.

I’m looking at 2010 and 2011 as key years for reform and change in our State government, County government,and Chicago government.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 1:28 pm
Worst President in history? I always hate taking people to task on this because they won’t listen anyway because all they do is spew worthless talking points… but… James Buchanan, worst president ever. Old Aunt Nancy couldn’t prevent a war even if he tried… and he didn’t even try….

Also, isn’t it hard to believe that ten years ago the GOP in Illinois controlled every single executive office and both houses of congress. Man, how things can change in ten years. I wonder what things will look like in the next ten years? GOP again? Who knows? But I can tell you it is impossible to predict.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 2:02 pm
YDD - I don’t think the fact that we’re not getting our fair share of the federal tax pie is solely a Democrat or Republican thing. It is up to our senators (2 Democrates) and representatives (a mix of Democrats and Republicans) that are supposed to look after our interests in Washington. I’d say they’re not doing their jobs well enough to funnel a little more of that pie our way.

Comment by Short End of the Stick Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 2:34 pm
Lovie,

I carefully described Dubya as the worst President in modern American history.

I’m fairly confident in my description and history’s ultimate verdict.

After reading your comment, I did a google search on the phrase “Worst President in American History.”

For your consideration, I particularly recommend an article by a Princeton historian” Sean Wilentz, published in Rolling Stone. Dr. Wilentz was analyzing a recent 2004 survey of 414 American historians (FYI, before Katrina disaster):

“Calamitous presidents, faced with enormous difficulties -Buchanon,Andrew Johnson,Hoover, and now Bush - have divided the nation, governed erratically, and left the nation worse off. In each case, different factors contributed to failure: disastrous domestic policies; foreign policy blunders and military setbacks: executive misconduct: and crises of credibility and public trust. Bush is one of the rarities in Presidential history: He has not only stumbled badly in every one of these key areas, he has also displayed a weakness common among the greatest American failures - an unswerving adherence to a simplistic ideology that abjures deviation from dogma as heresy, thus preventing adjustment to changing realities. Repeatedly, Bush has undone himself, a failing revealed in in each major area of presidential performance.”

We’ve had some real turkeys, but not when the US was a superpower.

So read it and weep for the USA. Let’s hope that all our future Presidents,Republican or Democrat, are more competentthan Dubya.

Only time will tell. But I definitely believe that history will not be kind to Dubya. Based upon presnt trends, I don’t see much chance that Dubya’s reputation will ever be rehabilitated. It’s higly likely that he will be judged harshly by both liberal and conservative historians.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 3:58 pm
I’ll inject my standard polling opinion, since it seems that’s where this thread is headed:

Affluent, single-family households, who are more likely to be conservative, and therefore more likely Republican, have greater access to modern technology like answering machines, caller ID, cell phones, and VOIP. All of these advances allow this group to avoid nuisance phone calls, which include unsolicited phone polling. This has the effect of skewing phone polling results in favor of the lower-income, less-educated demographic, which tend to lean Democratic.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the results are tilted the way they are reported. Reality, however, is different.

The only poll that matters is the election. All of the rest of these phone polls are meaningless.

Comment by Southern Illinoisian Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 4:00 pm
Only time will tell.

Well, you sure did…

…but History will judge.

Comment by Bill Baar Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 4:02 pm
Just a couple of points. The first President to campaign for deficit financing to prime our economy was…Herbert Hoover in 1932. FDR campaigned on a balanced budget platform. Unfortunately for Mr. Hoover he bore the brunt of the earlier high tariff legislation by the Republican majority which brought Depression to Europe and then to us. Mr. Roosevelt brought Keynesian economics into his cabinet including deficit spending, but the pump priming did not work until the Selective Service (draft), our mobilization and the tooling up of our factories to sell military goods to the Allies..

Greatest bbeneficiary and best planning — the truman Administration and the post war programs which multiplied the middle class, gave every worker the oportunity to own a home and be upwardly mobile. We got rid of the stratification of the classes prevalent in Europe. This was the knockout punch for fascists and communists. It was the saving of the Republic.

Comment by Truthful James Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 4:20 pm
Posting from a foreign computer today. Forgot to use my nom de plume

Anonymous 9/13 1:28 and 3:58

Comment by Captain America Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 6:32 pm