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Rauner, GOP matching Madigan’s money in House races

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Illinois

You’re not going to believe this, and I didn’t either: For the first time, all-powerful Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan is not dominating the spending race this year.

I ran some campaign contributions numbers through the Illinois State Board of Elections’ website. When I finished I was so startled that I ran them again, just to make sure. Then I ran them again.

Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Let’s transfer this load to their servers for a while.

/snark

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:07 am

Comments

it will be interesting to see if this changes the outcomes of those races…

Comment by bored now Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:20 am
Rauner’s spending appears to be motivated not to help Durkin, but to keep things from bottoming out for him.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:30 am
1. I know a lot of Dems on this site can’t stand Bruce Rauner, but you have to admit that he puts his $$$ where his mouth is.

2. Imagine what could’ve happened in 2010 if Tom Cross had this kind of $$$ to use in some tight races. I’m not saying he would’ve become speaker, but he could’ve easily gotten much closer to 59 seats if he would’ve had Rauner’s cash.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:34 am
It will be an interesting year to see if Illinois Democrats have it as rough as their counterparts nationwide seem to be facing.

John

Comment by John Boch Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:35 am
Here’s an issue that I think many in the GOP are scared to face honestly:

If you’re playing defense in Itasca, and can’t compete in Park Ridge, your problem isn’t Madigan and Democrats, it’s Republicans.

For that issue, guys like Proft and Uiehlein are part of the problem, not the solution.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:39 am
The GOP legislative folks better enjoy the Raunervich money now. If he loses, I doubt the donations continue.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:40 am
And after all of that money, the Democrats will still hold 66 (+/-2) seats.

Comment by Mittuns Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:42 am
Very interesting article. Despite all of the money being spent on both sides, you have to wonder how many seats will actually end up changing hands.

Comment by Hacksaw Jim Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:45 am
Word - I agree. That is one reason why it almost seems as though Rauner’s money is being spent more wisely by the HRO/ILGOP than his own team.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:48 am
===If you’re playing defense in Itasca, and can’t compete in Park Ridge, your problem isn’t Madigan and Democrats, it’s Republicans.===

Here endeth the lesson My Party refuses to see why we can’t build and grow.

My Party has lost the relevancy due in part My Party refuses to make relevant arguments to voters.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:51 am
Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. There are races where the GOP is doing much better than expected. At least the money equation has equaled out a little. We’ll see what happens now. That money is definitely helping.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 10:52 am
Maybe now the best candidates and ground games will win.

Comment by walker Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 11:13 am
Too bad Rauner didn’t figure out 12 months ago that he should have backed an electable candidate for Governor and made himself the head of the Republican party. That way he would actually have some power come January 12.

Comment by Jaded Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 11:19 am
Walker:

Madigan was being outspent by the GOP for most of the time he has been speaker. Badly.

The fact that Rauner is burning money in DuPage County tells you just how much trouble the GOP is in.

No fault of Durkin: as he pointed out, Tom Cross took his eye off the ball and spent a decade fluffing his own bed instead of building an organization.

I think Durkin had high hopes early of a Rauner blowout and picking up one or two seats.

Now, there is no blowout. And Durkin is trying to hold even and hope, hope that something fluky breaks his way somewhere.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 11:23 am
=== I think Durkin had high hopes early of a Rauner blowout and picking up one or two seats.===

I think Durkin had high hopes of winning more than just one or two seats early on. It was looking like it could have been a big Republican wave year, and a Rauner rout. Now it is looking like it is going to be neither, but Durkin still has a few seats that are legitimate opportunities for pickups. With that said, he is also having to play some serious defense in places like Itasca, which will divert his resources from those potential pickup opportunities.

Comment by Hacksaw Jim Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 11:33 am
Rauner gave himself $1.5 mil as usual last Friday. However it appears this time that he didn’t pass on the usual $750k to the party. Looks like Rauner is worried about his own race enough that he’s going to cut the rest of the party free.

Comment by train111 Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 11:52 am
I’ll give Team Rauner this: they can walk and chew gum at the same time.

They are/were simultaneously a) running for Governor, b) running a ballot initiative and c) party building. That’s not easy, even with all of Rauner’s money. Even if your money is infinite the available time of the people at the top of your org chart is finite and someone still has to coordinate all of these efforts and make final decisions on where to allocate resources. It’s possible they could go 0-3 here but I’m still impressed by them.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 12:11 pm
He has not messe dup like the GOP usually does at this point. Good for him. Plus, he does spend his own money and has done so for a long, long time.

Comment by Wumpus Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 12:45 pm
Captain -

You are right on the mark. I spent a lot of time around various victory centers and Congressional campaign offices four years ago. It was very easy to see that the national GOP was all-in here but that the state GOP, Leader Radogno and Leader Cross just could not contribute anything above-and-beyond their own specific efforts. The state party could not build a bigger party or handle a massive 72 hour effort to match Senator Kirk’s or the various Congressional campaign’s combined efforts.

My fear is that a Rauner loss will have all of this crumble. I must admit that it is a boom-or-bust proposition - especially for Leader Durkin. But if Rauner wins, 2016 and 2018 will be a bit less dicey for either GOP leader.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 1:16 pm
Y-Dog, you’ve lost some objectivity here. Madigan has always had a lot more money than the GOP. George Ryan dealt the GOP a blow we’ve taken entirely too long to recover from. I’m not sure what you’re reading, but the GOP is very much in some races they didn’t have a shot at quite a while ago. They’re playing defense in places they didn’t expect to. If you read Rich’s Crain’s column today, it’s somewhat at odds with your statement of what the GOP has had to spend vs. Speaker Madigan. You don’t even have to Google it. It’s up there today.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 3:15 pm
== If you’re playing defense in Itasca, and can’t compete in Park Ridge, your problem isn’t Madigan and Democrats, it’s Republicans. ==

Well said! With equal money and a GOP year, if Durkin can’t pick up seats this year, then when will he? It likely won’t be in 2016.

Comment by anon Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 3:16 pm
A Guy
One thing is for certain you will never be accused of a loss of objectivity! I read your posts and have yet to see any sign of objectivity. You can’t lose it if you’ve never had it! Raunerbot.

Comment by Old and In the Way Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 3:22 pm
YDD: Sorry. My snarkiness was hiding in the weeds.

I am assuming Team Madigan will win again with better recruitment, organization and ground game, and the GOP will be losing one of their go-to excuses — funding.

Comment by walker Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 4:15 pm
=== I’m not sure what you’re reading, but the GOP is very much in some races they didn’t have a shot at quite a while ago. They’re playing defense in places they didn’t expect to.===

Can you provide some examples?

Comment by Hacksaw Jim Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 4:32 pm
Follow the Money H Saw. Rich provided polls last week that showed where these races are.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Oct 20, 14 @ 4:36 pm