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Numbers dump… plus, will the Greenie get dumped? - Updated x1

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Illinois
Polls

Rasmussen has finally moved its poll results out from behind the firewall - three days after Gov. Blagojevich’s campaign released the subscriber-only results. Anyway, as you’ll recall, Rasmussen had Blagojevich ahead of Topinka 48-36. Here’s the analysis:

Scandals aside, it would be tough to pick a winner if the candidates were to square off in a likeability contestâ€”28% of respondents say they have a â€œvery unfavorableâ€ opinion of the governor and 25% say the same of his challenger. Overall, 49% have an unfavorable opinion of Blagojevich and 54% have an unfavorable opinion of Topinka.

Despite the negative sentiment about him, thoughts on the Governorâ€™s job performance are mixed. Forty-eight percent (48%) of those surveyed approve of Blagojevichâ€™s job performance and 50% disapprove.

A plurality of voters see both candidates as politically moderate. Forty-two percent (42%) see Blagojevich as moderate while 40% say heâ€™s liberal. Topinka is seen as moderate by 39%; and conservative by 35%.

When asked who they trust more on matters relating to national security and Iraq, a slim plurality (47%) say the Democrats in Congress versus 44% who trust President Bush. The gap widens when it comes to the economy; 49% trust Congressional Democrats and 39% trust President Bush.

There was no mention of Green Party candidate Rich Whitney.

And speaking of Whitney, The Southern had a story today on Whitney’s possible appearance at a Carbondale debate later this month.

When contacted Tuesday Shelia Nix, campaign spokesperson for Blagojevich, declined to comment about the Whitney’s inclusion or if the governor still plans to participate.

The paper’s editor, James Bennett, had more in his blog.

Blagojevichâ€™s spokesperson said the governorâ€™s acceptance was based on a one-on-one-chance to debate Topinka.

Since neither campaign has signed off on the debate in writing, the debate committee has established a deadline of Tuesday, Sept. 19 for acceptance. […]

If Blagojevich debates Whitney, his advisers fear it will legitimize the Green Partyâ€™s campaign and make it tougher to defeat Topinka.

If Blagojevich declines the invitation to debate, he runs the risk of being accused of ignoring Southern Illinois, which has not hosted a debate in 20 years.

UPDATE: The state’s IIS Radio service had a report this afternoon on the Tribune poll. Click the play button.

[audio:poll.mp3]

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 12:22 pm

Comments

Call me crazy, but I don’t think there is anyway Blago can not debate in Southern Illinois without further alienating himself to those folks. He will appear to lack “Testicular Virilaty” if he doesn’t go because Whitney is there.

Comment by leigh Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 12:26 pm
If he blows off the debate jusing Whitney as an excuse, he just proves what a desperate coward he is. It leaves the debate to consist of the other two candidates sitting there for an hour’s worth of free media, to gang up on him in his absence, then the press, including the political cartoonists, will chew on that for the next couple news cycles.

No, better he comes down to finally take his medicine, than to continue to hide out in Chicago. Frankly, I think with his record he’ll be lucky to escape without getting tarred and feathered, but at some point you have to answer the voters with your record. And his record is so very, very bad.

Comment by Gregor Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 12:44 pm
Earth to Rod: Whitney’s campaign is already legitimate. If nothing else, the Tribune legitimized it the day they included him in the poll.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 1:08 pm
Why should the Governor debate Whitney? He is going to lose â€“ I donâ€™t care if he has 10% of the vote. In most polls, he is below 5% so why include him all because he managed to get 6%?

In the Southernâ€™s own poll he was only at 3%! They guy wont win, so donâ€™t clutter up the debate for the rest of us who want to see where the two legitimate candidates stand on the issues.

This is a Blagojevich â€“ Barr Topinka race. If the greens think they can win or even break double digits, then they are high.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 1:35 pm
Anon. 1:35 - I totally agree. In fact, why should the governor debate anyone? It’s a real pain in the keister, after all - and come to think of it, this whole voting thing, this democracy, is just a mess of unnecessary trouble. Why don’t we just make him King Rod? Then nobody has to worry or decide or think for themselves.

Comment by Reality Check Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 1:52 pm
Reality Check - thanks for taking the words right out of my mouth.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 1:55 pm
Rod - just stop the crap, stop pointing fingers, stop the cheap excuses. Show some testicular whatever, take on all comers in a debate, and be done with it.

Comment by zatoichi Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 2:03 pm
Whitney’s poll numbers really do suck,
But debates are still bad things to duck!
In dodging the Green,
Rod looks more than just mean.
Governor, did I just hear you cluck?

Comment by Limerick Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 2:34 pm
Can one of our more level headed democratic leaning posters, aka, Yellow Dog, please explain something to me…Why would the recent poll show that Democrats were favored over Republicans on the nation al scene when it comes to the economy? Nationally, Democrats have fought with this administration in every effort of tax cuts, tax relief and budget matters; have constantly tried for larger budgets and spending more money. The results? Today’s Rueter’s article that revenues are up 11% budget deficit down 14%, and collectively over the past five years nearly 6 million jobs created, by who??? REPUBLICANS!!! I don’t get it…damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Comment by Bass Man Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 4:39 pm
Blago will drop out of the debate. He does not care a wit about the appearance of it all. Since when does this late-to-every-appearance, mulit-million dollar TV ad campaigner, can’t-read-from-a-script debater care about us?

He takes no responsibilities, claims no mistakes, and will come up with a bunch of excuses why he will not show up at this debate with Whitney and Topinka.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 4:54 pm
Jesse Ventura was polling around 6% before the first big debate. Just saying.

And Blago (along with JRyan) did the same thing four years ago refusing to debate Cal Skinner. Skinner had more Springfield experience than both of them combined. Remember, Blago and JRyan skipped the LWV debate for the first time in like 30 years because Skinner met their 5% poll requirement? Of course the LWV upped it to 10% in 2004.

I doubt Blago will debate Whitney, but there’s a chance if enough pressure is put on him by the media.

The media and debate sponsors should voluntarily agree to a debate inclusion threshhold and hold the candidates to it. Jim Anderson at IRN should be telling Blago that Whitney is in like it or not, and know all the other media hosts will say the same thing.

If Blago refuses to debate Whitney and Topinka for Governor, he doesn’t deserve the job. It’s that simple. How can you vote for that?

Comment by Jeff Trigg Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 9:57 pm
The media is not putting enough pressure on Jim Anderson at the Illinois Radio Network. He’s all but come out and said that he’s running a for-profit business, has no obligation to invite Rich Whitney, and won’t do it if it causes Blagojevich to withdraw. Where are Jim Anderson’s journalistic ethics? Doesn’t he believe in fair, accurate, honest, and balanced reporting? It seems that Jim Anderson needs a “business reason” to “do the right thing.” Jim Anderson isn’t willing to hold Blagojevich’s feet to the fire, and it’s irresponsible journalism like this that lets our elected officials get away with murder. Maybe the way to Jim Anderson’s heart is via the IRN’s affiliate radio stations–in the pocketbook.

Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Sep 13, 06 @ 11:52 pm
likely voters ?? given the % there doesn’t stack up to well. fact is Bladgo hasn’t broke 50% 6 weeks before the election & per the poll about 15 % + don’t have a clue who or if they’re “likely” to vote.

Comment by annon. Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 7:19 am
Bass Man, it’s simple. Democrats = surplus, Republicans = deficit. What do you mean, “budget deficit down 14%”? You mean “from the abysmal numbers Bush had previously”? Or are you somehow saying that Bush’s deficit is 14% down from Clinton’s surplus?

Comment by Aeson Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 4:08 pm
In a race where there is no serious Democratic candidate (sorry, but the Gov is so irresponsible that he’s not a credible option for anyone of any party) and the GOP candidate is so lackluster, Whitney is the only alternative left.

The people deserve to make an informed choice. A vote for Whitney is a vote against both party machines–and a vote long overdue.

By playing cheap tricks, the Gov shows himself to be a fraud. isn’t it time that someone noticed that the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes?

Comment by fgjfjhg Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 10:38 pm
this is why i voted for eisendrath, smart, capable and clean! let’s start a write in campaign - who’s with me!?

Comment by JE Sunday, Oct 15, 06 @ 1:25 pm