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BLS: A strong couple of months

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Illinois

* The Bureau of Labor Statistics had some mostly good news for Illinois today. Gov. Pat Quinn was all over it…

Governor Pat Quinn today issued a statement regarding the latest economic information released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The information made available today showed that last month Illinois led the Midwest – and was second in the nation – in job creation. It also found that Illinois has seen the nation’s largest drop in unemployment over the last year. In September, Illinois’ unemployment rate dropped for the seventh consecutive month, from 6.7 to 6.6 percent, the lowest level since June 2008 and down from 11.4 percent at the peak of the recession. In the last two months Illinois employers have created more than 40,000 jobs.

“Today’s news shows that the Illinois economy is making a comeback. We are making the tough decisions necessary to drive economic growth and the statistics released today show that Illinois is moving in the right direction.

“Illinois has seen the nation’s sharpest decline in unemployment over the last year, and our unemployment rate is at its lowest point in more than six years.

“Last month Illinois had the second best job growth in America. Illinois employers have added more than 300,000 jobs since the recovery began.

“It is clear that Illinois’ economy is growing stronger every day, and we have more work to do. Let’s keep our shoulder to the wheel.”

* 40,000 new jobs in two months is, indeed, some good news. The Illinois Policy Institute chose to focus on a problematic sector in its response…

Today, complete data showing Illinois’ unemployment levels were released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The September report shows mixed results, with Illinois gaining 19,300 net jobs but losing 2,800 manufacturing jobs. This expands on data released last week by the Illinois Department of Employment Security showing the state’s jobless rate dropping to 6.6 percent. The state’s net payroll job growth is one of the best monthly increases in the state over the past decade. However, Illinois still ranks worst in the Midwest for manufacturing job losses.

The nonpartisan Illinois Policy Institute’s Director of Jobs and Growth, Michael Lucci, issued the following statement on today’s jobless data:

“Illinois had a strong month for job growth in September. Gaining more than 19,000 payroll jobs in the state is a positive sign for Illinoisans who have been struggling to find work. However, Illinois has been incredibly slow in terms of putting people back to work compared to other states in the country since the end of the recession. At the current pace of growth, it will still take Illinois seven more years to recover the losses from the Great Recession.”

Below are some highlights from today’s jobs report:

Illinois payroll jobs growth of 19,300 is the sixth-best monthly jobs increase for the state in the past decade.

Despite the state’s workforce growing slightly by 5,800 in September, Illinois’ workforce participation rate is still at a 35-year low.

Illinois has 130,900 fewer jobs since recession losses began in January 2008. This is the second-worst recovery in the country.

Illinois has 99,000 fewer manufacturing jobs since January 2008, the worst record of any state in the Midwest.

If you look at the month of September dating back to 2004, you’ll see Illinois had 5.979 million non-farm jobs in 2007 - the peak. We’re at 5.863 million today - 116,000 fewer. Our September low point was 5.6 million jobs in 2009, so we’re 263,000 above that horrible nadir. At this current rate of growth, I’m not sure it’s gonna take us 7 more years to recover those lost jobs, as the Policy Institute claims.

Also, the participation rate is not entirely a red herring, but it mostly is. Conservatives are touting the economies of nearby states which have lower participation rates. From a recent Tribune editorial…

The [July, 2014) numbers show the Illinois labor participation rate of 64.7 percent running ahead of the rates in Michigan (60.4), Ohio (62.8), Indiana (63.3) and Missouri (64.2). Illinois trails Iowa (70.1) and Wisconsin (67.8).

I do agree that the manufacturing sector losses need to be addressed, however.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 12:47 pm

Comments

Anyone know how we are looking on those year-to-date numbers?

Earlier this year, a reputable group projected Illinois would finish the year last in job growth. Are we proving them right or wrong so far?

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 12:49 pm
FKA, the more important number is year over year. Year to date is important at the end of the year, therefore.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 12:53 pm
Maybe Quinn can use executive order power to take road building and add it to the manufacturing sector??

Comment by THEGUN Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 12:57 pm
The nonpartisan Illinois Policy Institute’s Director of Jobs and Growth, Michael Lucci, …..

Non partisan? Policy Institute? Really……can you say this without laughing? To a real academic or a real policy institute this is nothing short of an insult. Between this drivel and the rest of the Illinois print media I’m looking forward to going back to Russia where there is no pretense of journalist integrity. They print lies but they’re honest about it! Good thing that people don’t read newspapers anymore!

Comment by Old and In the Way Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:00 pm
@Rich - good point. I will save that question for next January or thereabouts. Did not mean to distract from the topic, but I was wondering how often those projections turn out to be right. Maybe the Governor can send Pew a gift basket and a note that says Bite Me lol.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:07 pm
Computers and robotics have replaced most factory workers in most factories. The only workers needed are technicians to set up and adjust the robots. I think that that is why the manufacturing sector is still behind on job creation. Also, I agree with Rich. Year to year is a much better comparison.

Comment by Old Sarge Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:14 pm
As soon as Rauner stops shifting those manufacturing jobs overseas, those numbers should improve too.

Comment by A Jack Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:16 pm
Before celebrating, I would like to find some more data. I would like to overlay the population data to learn whether the lowered population growth data is doing to the labor participation rate data. What are the demographics skewing the available workers due to a greying of the population and what kinds of jobs were created? Higher paying trade jobs?, clerical/sales with or without benefits?

Good for chest thumping, but unknown whether Illinois is really healing or how the current State policies may be hampering a more robust recovery.

Comment by plutocrat03 Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:18 pm
Manufacturing job loss is not a problem unique to Illinois, so pointing to that one sector as an indicator of the state’s overall economic health is not necessarily accurate. In fact, manufacturers at this point are unable to fill the jobs they have let alone additional jobs that would be created in that sector. It would seem unwise to talk about growing the economy without talking about educating those workers, as Rauner has done. The real strategy is public education investment, and job training, which Quinn seems to understand will require a little more strategic thinking.

Comment by Illinoise Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:19 pm
I am always happy to see good news/trends in our fair state’s labor market. However, out of twelve (12) states which the BLS lumps into their Midwest statistics, we still have the 2nd highest unemployment rate in the Midwest. We are at 6.6% and Michigan is at 7.2%. We are nearly an entire percentage point (.9%) higher than the totality of the Midwest.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:23 pm
At least some positive news.

Comment by FormerParatrooper Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:25 pm
Yeah, I am a manufacturer with plenty of open jobs—just can’t find the skilled people or the people who can pass a drug test and get up every day and get to work on time. A real problem.

Comment by Peoria Guy Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:26 pm
Rich:

Across eight years, Jim Edgar created ZERO net manufacturing jobs.

Across four years, George Ryan LOST 125,000 manufacturing jobs.

Across the last four years, Pat Quinn has added about 25,000 manufacturing jobs, half what was lost the year before due to the recession. The prior losses during 2008 of 50,000 manufacturing jobs were, as you know, another governor.

Once again, IPI is playing fast and loose with the numbers.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:26 pm
–the manufacturing sector losses need to be addressed–

Indeed, but a lot of that is going to be on the backs of the legislature and the Governor to pass changes to current laws that make Illinois more competitive. We have excellent infrastructure, a good workforce and some logistical benefits to our advantage. We don’t need wholesale change, just some adjustments to Workers Comp and Unemployment Insurance and streamlined permitting at the EPA. It’s not rocket science, but it is going to require a little effort by the State.

Lowering workers compensation insurance and unemployment insurance will also help with a lot more job creation than just manufacturing.

Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:31 pm
@Team Sleep we may be .9 behind the rest of the Midwest when excepting Michigan but things are trending for the better. While I’m not a big fan of Quinn, the seeds for some of the problems that are currently putting a drag on our economy were sown long before he became Governor.
I suppose that there’s some truth in what some are saying which is that Rauner and some of his supporters don’t want to see an improvement in the economy until after the election.

Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:32 pm
You mean we’re not on the brink of permanent decline?

I wonder about the incomes of those who peddle the gloom and doom stories? We know at least one such person made $113 million in the last two years. How can that be, in this economic hellhole?

Just the other day I updated my states’ economic data project. Illinois’ ranking improved in job growth and was better than Wisconsin, New Jersey and Florida. I picked the period of 04/14-08/14, since Q1 of 2014 had a weaker economy due to bad weather.

I did not input 09/14 job gains data, which will help Illinois even more.

This doesn’t mean we’re great. We have to do much better in manufacturing jobs. We can also get the controversial fracking thing going. We can look into economic expansion in other areas.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:44 pm
You wear the jacket for e bad news, you take the credit for the good news.

Pesonally, I don’t think who controls one branch of a state government in a global economy has much to do with it, one way or the other.

If govenors are responsible for economic growth and employment, then I guess Blago was one of the best ever. But I don’t believe that.x

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:46 pm
Maybe if Mr. Rauner would quit outsourcing jobs, Illinois wouldn’t be declining in manufacturing jobs.

Comment by Both Sides Now Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 1:47 pm
@Both Sides Now

Just look at the job growth since Rauner’s retirement! It’s really simple. Just keep him retired!

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 2:00 pm
Rich - why only include nonfarm numbers @ the end of your post? With the farm jobs, aren’t we doing better? Ag is IL’s top sector as I recall.

Also as the inimitable Schnorf has pointed out, manufacturing nationally has been on the decline for 50 years+…

Comment by Yankee Dooder Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 2:06 pm
Grandson of Man: Thank you. Keep up the good work.

Those politicians and editorial boards who justify their political positions based on the “Illinois-as-imminent-disaster” scenario, never let actual facts get in the way of a good story.

The reality is mixed, with a lot of positives as well as negatives. And yes, we are outperforming many of our neighboring states in key economic indicators.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 2:21 pm
Wordslinger
Pesonally, I don’t think who controls one branch of a state government in a global economy has much to do with it, one way or the other.

I totally agree! Everyone wants a simple answer and a quick fix. Sorry it really is complicated and there are no quick and easy fixes. It’s a world economy and its time we accept this reality.

Comment by Old and In the Way Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 3:03 pm
=I’m a manufacturer with plenty of open jobs=

Pay more money. I guarantee you’ll find the skilled workers you want.

Comment by Chi Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 3:09 pm
This is very good news and the trends look promising. But, wow, no press release about this from Rauner yet? And I thought he liked talking about more people working and business doing better in Illinois.

Comment by OldSmoky2 Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 3:15 pm
=Pay more money. I guarantee you’ll find the skilled workers you want.=

The problem is that consumers are unwilling to pay higher prices to make up for the increased labor costs. Low overseas wages make it very difficult to compete. Why don’t the unions organize international labor markets so we have a level playing field for all? Seems fairly xenophobic not to want foreigners in your “brotherhood”.

Comment by That Guy Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 4:22 pm
We’re cured. Somebody call the editorial departments everywhere in the state. Buy yourself somethin’ pretty while you’re at it. Cuz.

Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 4:30 pm
A guy: Hey cuz.

We’re not “cured” yet.

We just don’t have Ebola.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 5:14 pm
==Illinois has 130,900 fewer jobs since recession losses began in January 2008. This is the second-worst recovery in the country.

Illinois has 99,000 fewer manufacturing jobs since January 2008, the worst record of any state in the Midwest.==

Illinois is the most populous state in the Midwest and (I think) the 5th most populous in the country. So if jobs have declined overall, you’d expect Illinois to be among the leaders in losses. And if manufacturing jobs are being lost in the Midwest, you’d expect Illinois to lose the most. That doesn’t make Illinois the worst. It’s just a big state.
—-
If correct, that’s a wide range in labor participation rates. Here are the unemployment rates that I calculate would be needed for employment in other states to be equivalent to Illinois: Indiana: 4.5%; Michigan: 0%; Missouri: 5.9%; Ohio: 3.8%; Iowa: 13.8%; Wisconsin: 10.9%.

It’s also my understanding that a part-time job counts as a “job” in the data, which could be misleading. A truer measure of employment for a state would be the total number of hours worked divided by the working-age population.

In short, it’s easy to cherry pick a few numbers that seem to bolster your case.

Comment by Anony Tuesday, Oct 21, 14 @ 7:48 pm
The labor force participation rate is kind of a misleading measure. It considers, for example, full time students to be “non-participating” while it considers the unemployed to be “participating.” If you break it down a bit more, you get a pretty different picture of the extent to which Americans are engaged in economically productive activity. See the breakdown here- http://politicsthatwork.com/blog/labor-force-participation-rate.php

Comment by Politics That Work Wednesday, Oct 22, 14 @ 1:03 pm