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Third straight poll shows Rauner leading Quinn

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Illinois
Polls

* The Illinois Chamber’s president sent his members an urgent e-mail today about a poll he’d commissioned…

The poll, completed just last night, shows Rauner receiving 44.9% support to 41.1% for Quinn and 6.4% for Libertarian candidate Grimm. The 3.8% margin is outside of the poll’s 3.36% margin of error.

* The minimum wage referendum result is no surprise, but the millionaire’s tax kinda is…

Please don’t overlook two referendums on the ballot that are intended to show support for proposals that would cause even greater harm to small businesses. One asks voters whether the minimum wage in Illinois should be raised to $10/hour.

Our poll shows that when voters are not educated on this issue - Illinois already has the highest minimum wage in the Midwest - a majority of voters support its surface appeal.

The second referendum asks if voters support a so-called “millionaires’ tax” which would increase income taxes on small business owners and entrepreneurs. Fortunately, it looks as if more voters recognize the negative impact of raising taxes on jobs creators. A majority opposing the tax in our poll.

* Other results…

US Senate: Durbin (D) 48.9%; Oberweis (R) 38.2%; Hansen (L) 5.7%

Attorney General Madigan (D) 50.6%; Schimpf (R) 32.9%; Koyl (L) 5.0%

Treasurer Cross (R) 36.8%; Frerichs (D) 32.9%; Shopek (L) 5.4%

Still lots of undecideds in that treasurer’s race.

* Methodology…

The survey was conducted over three nights from 10/21-10/23 by polling firm Cygnal. It includes 853 respondents for a margin of error of +/- 3.36%. 22% of respondents were contacted on cell phones.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:01 pm

Comments

Pluses and Ground Game, Pluses and Ground Game.

Unless the US Chamber has absolute Pluses they are bringing to the Polls, the email is an Ad.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:06 pm
I am a PQ guy all the way but I think it is time to light the candles.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:07 pm
I think it might be closer than that actually. But I do think that Grimm is hurting Quinn too. Probably a third of Grimm’s are would be Quinns. This one’s going down to the wire. I could see a 3 point spread or so, but late breakers if it’s that much. Likely narrower. Bias Alert!!! I still see it for Rauner.

Comment by A guy... Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:07 pm
I’d bet money that the millionaire’s tax passes easily. That doesn’t pass the snicker test.

Comment by 1776 Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:10 pm
Where was Bill Brady at this point 4 years ago.

Comment by admin Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:11 pm
At this point in the race, I believe the numbers also favored a Brady win.

Comment by admin Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:16 pm
admin, it depended on the poll. Most of those that included all candidates had it pretty darned close either way. Those that didn’t had Brady winning.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:17 pm
Brady was up 4-6 pts this time last year.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html

Comment by The Wolf Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:17 pm
If Grimm gets anything above 7 percent Quinn wins. Take that tot the bank

Comment by Beat up republican Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:18 pm
Surprised the millionaire surcharge is not polling well. Most want a graduated income tax.

Comment by Very Fed Up Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:18 pm
This poll seems to be an outlier in terms of the “millionaire’s tax.” All other polls have it with majority support.

Comment by Researcher Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:20 pm
*Last election - sorry. Average was 4.7 pts Brady over Quinn. Actual result .5 spread for Quinn.

Comment by The Wolf Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:20 pm
I’m not sure all Grimms votes are coming from Rauner I suspect 60/40 split with quinn. Just anecdotal. However i think Quinns disapproval numbers are going to bite him.

Comment by Mason born Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:23 pm
This is tough, I think Quinn out performs his polling due to the Dem ground game, but I think a lot of the folks for the Libertarian candidate end up “coming home” on election day to Rauner. A good Question of the Day might be is this election closer than 2010?

Comment by Ahoy! Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:23 pm
==*Last election - sorry. Average was 4.7 pts Brady over Quinn. Actual result .5 spread for Quinn.==

That average included polls that did not include all candidates

Comment by Anonymoiis Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:24 pm
**But I do think that Grimm is hurting Quinn too. Probably a third of Grimm’s are would be Quinns. **

I don’t think that you understand the concept.

If Grimm is taking more votes away from Rauner than he is taking away from Quinn, he isn’t hurting Quinn.

Comment by AlabamaShake Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:27 pm
I’m discovering the “millionaire tax” proposal isn’t as popular as cynical political types think. Most also oppose a graduated income tax, thinking when politicians are done with it, they would end up paying higher taxes.

The cynicism this year is off the charts in my little neck of the woods.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:27 pm
BTW - unrelated to these races, but has anyone seen any polling on the Glowiak/Nybo race?

Comment by AlabamaShake Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:27 pm
And SB 216? A non-starter in my area.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:28 pm
Louis, a millionaires tax and a progressive income tax aren’t going over well in Lake Forest?

Shocking. Why do you think that is, lol?

Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:32 pm
Anonymoiis — not all three of the recent “Rauner up” polls had all candidates — so RCP actually provides a good comparable set. As for 2010 — recall that was the year Obama and the Dems received the infamous “shellacking.”

Comment by The Wolf Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:35 pm
Three polls released yesterday/today and all show a tight race as we expected. They also show momentum swinging Rauner’s way IMHO. Can he keep that going for the next 11 days? We are now really about to see if money CAN buy you love!

Comment by Big Muddy Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:35 pm
So based on the poll, Quinn’s folks should plaster Rauner and Obe pics around.

Comment by admin Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:37 pm
Right Wordslinger…I left out, those thinking one of their rich relatives will die soon and leave them a lot of money so they can pay off their mortgage and actually buy furniture that meets the standard of living their birthright demands.

Comment by Louis Howe Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:44 pm
When commenters suggest that third party votes are “coming from” either a Democratic candidate or GOP candidate, what does that mean? Are they suggesting that had the third party candidate not been on the ballot those voters would have either voted Dem or GOP?

I write in candidates if I can’t bring myself to vote for the choices on the ballot. In IL, though, too many statewide offices do not present space for write-ins.

It’s like a Soviet ballot when there is only one candidate and no space for a write in.

Makes me want to accept the idea that if voting made a difference it would be illegal.

Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:45 pm
**Our poll shows that when voters are not educated on this issue - Illinois already has the highest minimum wage in the Midwest - a majority of voters support its surface appeal.**

Oh good, instead of ‘educating’ voters about the horrors of the minimum wage, they’re going to dismiss the referendum results after the election by saying voters weren’t educated.

Comment by Century Club Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:49 pm
Oswego Willy says “Pluses and Ground Game, Pluses and Ground Game.” Im waiting to see the ground game. I live in suburban Cook County and it hasn’t arrived in mu township yet.

Comment by Anon Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:51 pm
If the poll results on the referendum “millionaires tax” are true in concert with the lead for Rauner, it suggests that the ugly and relentless class war rhetoric, and demonization of “the rich”, were likely misapplied/missed targets on which a lot of money was wasted.

Comment by Responsa Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:53 pm
This is a bad news poll for Team Frerichs. They have been on the air for over 2 weeks and looks like they have lost ground. they had a window of opportunity to seize the lead while cross was dark, that window has now closed.

Comment by Barney Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:54 pm
The cell phone sample seems very low to me.

Forty percent of US households have no landline.

Landline phone users tend to be older, whiter and more rural.

Is Fako here?

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:57 pm
The relentless war againmst the middle class has caused a backlash which will probably result in passage of the 3% millionaire tax.

Comment by Enviro Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 4:59 pm
Yeah…last Reboot poll was 31% cell phones. This one is 22%.

Given that they didn’t do a full 1000 voters, I suspect they had a hard time getting full sample and just released what they had, under sampling cell phones.

I wouldn’t rely on this puppy until I see crosstabs.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 5:02 pm
Never heard of this polling group. Cross tabs please.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 5:04 pm
Looks like the Romney “pretend we are winning” pollsters are hard at work implementing their strategy to squeeze more and more Republican donors and volunteers.

Comment by Jeepster Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 5:12 pm
The whole “education” part sounds like a push poll to me, chamber is just another term for republican, call me skeptical.

Comment by 618662dem Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 5:16 pm
I’ve lived long enough to find all the 40,50,60,70 and 80 yearold minimum wage workers at Wal-Mart and McDonalds to be very disturbing. The Chamber’s game changing message to voters is “Illinois already has the highest minimum wage in the Midwest,” but they forget to add many minimum wage workers have to work two jobs, collect food stamps, live in Section 8 housing, and try to find a doctor taking Medicaid when they are sick.
The richest family in America pays their part-time Illinois workforce $8.50 an hour. How they can sleep at night given their exploitive business model is a good indicator that the Walton’s and the rest of the business elite billionaires are sociopathic at their core.

Comment by Louis Howe Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 5:21 pm
Quinn will lose by more than 5 points. The unfavorable numbers are going to sink him. The president is upside down here.

Comment by Walter Mitty Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 6:25 pm
But, but, but……our guy is not leading in this poll so it is crap.

Comment by anonano Friday, Oct 24, 14 @ 6:28 pm