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Possibly flawed poll results

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Illinois
Polls

* As you know, I’m not a fan of polls conducted via online means. But since the New York Times and CBS News are putting their names on these YouGov polls, I figure we’d better cover them. This poll, like the last one, was taken over an extended period of time - 8 days in this instance, 10/16 - 10/23.

And, like Rasmussen Results, the YouGov poll only asked about “other” candidates, rather than list the Libertarian’s name. That’s not good at all.

With all that being said, the YouGov poll has Gov. Pat Quinn leading Bruce Rauner 45-41. That’s a bit wider spread than last month, when YouGov had Quinn up 46-43.

* Let’s look at some models. HuffPo poll tracker...

* TPM…

* Real Clear Politics…

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:14 pm

Comments

Serious question: Does anyone know of a *legitimate* reason why pollsters ask questions that don’t accurately reflect the ballot that voters will see on election day?

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:21 pm
Sam Wang makes the case that the number of close governor races and US Senate races exceeds the number in recent elections.

He observes that four years ago, GOP had a wave and is defending in states that are normally more Democratic (although this doesn’t explain GOP weakness in AK, GA & KS).

And six years ago, Dems had a wave and are defending in GOP friendly states (which explains AK, AR, NC and some others) but not GOP weakness in GA, KS, KY).

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:23 pm
The cross tabs show Rauner with 10% AA support. Hard to believe.

Comment by Chad Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:24 pm
The online poll is not a great thing to look to for legitimacy of the numbers. No Grimm equals no credibility to the realities, no matter who puts it up.

To the polling as a whole,

Rauner blew a 17 point lead with no ground game and only 10% negatives in the Primary.

Not 1, not 7. “Seven. Teen.”

Anything that has this close, not thrilling news for Rauner. Rauner’s negatives ain’t at 10%.

Controlled voting is not a Rauner speciality.

“I’ve personally spent $27 million in a year…why am I behind?”

Speaks volumes to that Crew.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:25 pm
Chad, Brady got 6 percent without trying http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=ILG00p1

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:26 pm
Actually looks positive for Rauner. But I have my doubts that he will win, especially with a Libertarian on the ballot.

Still think Quinn will win unless something big goes Rauner’s way in the next week.

Comment by Federalist Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:26 pm
This is my favorite part:

CONFIDENCE OF WIN The probability that Rauner will beat Undecided is 55%.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:27 pm
There’s a local angle to the close national elections.

National progressive groups want to dive into Chicago’s municipal elections.

But if control of US Senate comes down to run-offs in Georgia and/or Louisiana much of that national progressive infrastructure will be focused on Louisiana into December or Georgia into January.

So, rubber stamp aldermen should be hoping no candidates break 50% in Georgia & Louisiana and that the other US Senate races break in ways that make Georgia or Louisiana results decide control of the Senate.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:27 pm
We’ve seen some polls with odd crosstabs and if course no Grimm in the poll, like this one and Rasmussen. This poll also has a lot of undecideds.

The Trib poll showed a huge lead for Rauner in the collar counties, and puny support for Rauner among African-Americans. The women vote has also fluctuated, I believe (fickle women).

What about the Latino vote and how has that factored into polls?

Polling sites aggregate the polls, but as always, garbage in, garbage out.

I think this race boils down to turnout. There might also be a bombshell or some last-minute thing, but who knows?

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:27 pm
To quote the great Dan Rather, this one is closer than Lassie and Timmy.

Comment by Snucka Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:30 pm
I was contrasting to the 3% in the trib poll. If Rauner is indeed getting 10, I can see why the Dem alarm bells are going off. There are more AA pastors out there who are not yet with Quinn.

Comment by Chad Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:33 pm
Chad, that 10% number was not out of question pre-Obama. Obama is not up for election. Before Bush was made into the Devil, 10% was a given.

Comment by Wumpus Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:34 pm
“Serious question: Does anyone know of a *legitimate* reason why pollsters ask questions that don’t accurately reflect the ballot that voters will see on election day?”

Answer = bad pollster / bad questionnaire. The only time is may be legitimate to exclude is if there is very strong confidence said third party candidates will not make it to the ballot, and even that is in a grey area.

Comment by Dave Fako Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:41 pm
I get this feeling that there will be some single event between now and Nov 4 that will swing this election one way or another.

Comment by Stones Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:42 pm
Looks like a loooong wait will be in order to discern the winner…..maybe until just prior to Xmas…

Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:45 pm
Yeah, is TPM one trying to say that Rauner will capture 55% of the undecided vote, or is it just garbled computer lingo?

Comment by Lunchbox Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:45 pm
Whoops, I meant the Huffington Post poll tracker.

Comment by Lunchbox Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:45 pm
In Presidential elections, there is some evidence that independent candidates, like Ralph Nader, polling around 5% see much of their support go to the major candidates when votes are cast.

So, it’s not crazy to make it harder to register for minor candidates in polls because it’s an informal method of checking the commitment of the voter.

But in Illinois’ Gov elections since Blago vs. Topinka, it seems like there is a block of people who are skipping the D & R options and voting for the minor candidates.

The true test would be to have a pollster do two polls, one with minor candidates and one without and see which is more accurate.

But it would have to be done over and over to see if there were patterns or not.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:50 pm
I think 10% AA support for Rauner at this point, after all of the Obama appearances and other panicky activities, is not looking good for Quinn. Other than Meeks, the big congregations have not come out yet. A few more of the mega churches for Rauner and there could be serious consequences. I don’t think we will see a flood of AAs suddenly voting for Rauner, but a good number might be asking “why should I come out for Quinn with the community looking divided?”

Comment by Chad Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:52 pm
I voted in that poll 2 for me and my wife. Then twice for my parents and once for my son in college, all for PQ.
Then my parents told me first time ever voting Republican and my son said over the wknd he voted Grimm.
I’m hanging with PQ but my wife not sure.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 1:52 pm
Toss em all out now. It’s close. Gonna be until next Tuesday.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 2:04 pm
No matter what people feel about the Libertarian Party, they should be included in the polling as they are going to be a factor on the 4th. Ask Brady supporters about Independents and Libertarians circa 2010.

Would be interesting to see answers to MrJM’s question up top.

Comment by Downstate Libertarian Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 2:30 pm
I’m with @A guy… It’s anybody’s ballgame.

Comment by Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 2:31 pm
Got a Chad Grimm mailer today. 150 must have bought a GOP list.

Bald eagle visual. Quote: 100 percent pro-life. 100 percent pro-2nd Amendment. 100 percent pro-freedom.

Rauner is a “Chicago liberal.”

No mention of Rahm. Missed a trick.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 2:50 pm
Yep. All the stuff Big Labor is for. It’s all on there. I’m mildly surprised you’re on that list. I haven’t received my mailer yet. Hmmm.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 2:52 pm
Looks like Rauner is going to win this one afterall.

Comment by Mcleaniac Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 3:37 pm
Was this poll registered voters? Just read an article that says it was. Poll started 11 days ago, was conducted online and apparently registered instead of likely voters.

Yeah, I would bet the house on the accuracy of this poll.

Comment by anon Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 3:40 pm
===Was this poll registered voters? ===

I don’t know where that article is, but if you click the link above you’ll see clearly that these are likely voters.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 3:49 pm
Chad Merda, Chicago Sun Times

Comment by anon Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 3:57 pm
Chad either doesn’t know the difference, or didn’t click thru. I can’t help what he wrote. Click through to the poll itself, for cripes sakes.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 3:59 pm
Any new data on early voting? It seems that Suburban Cook has already seen 49,379 votes cast through yesterday. At this time in 2010, there had been only 21,567 votes.

Comment by Snucka Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:05 pm
Guy, Big Labor, that sounds scary. You’re scared of a lot of things.

Don’t know why you didn’t receive the Lib mailer, but I did. Just reporting what it says.

Hmm.

Whats your concern? What are all the people telling you?

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:32 pm
They’re telling me nothing about what you get in the mail. To be fair, I’m not asking. I did get a different Rauner piece suggesting there’s an effort be sneaky with a third party candidate. But it’s not the one you received, nor is it the one posted on the blog today. These pieces seem to have regional messages on this theme.

But as you can imagine Sling, I’d strongly prefer to get whatever you’re getting.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 4:59 pm
Looking over the early voting returns in Suburban Cook is not encouraging for Team Quinn.

I broke the numbers down in to “Rauner friendly”, “Quinn Friendly” and “Toss Up” territories.

My results - Rauner-friendly: 47% - Quinn-Friendly: 39% - Toss Up: 14%

Comment by Snucka Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 5:23 pm
===I broke the numbers down in to “Rauner friendly”, “Quinn Friendly” and “Toss Up” territories===

I don’t think that’s all that valid, yet, anyway. Lots of targeting being done. But I do agree that there seems to be stronger EV in Bruce’s turf.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 27, 14 @ 5:25 pm