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Do you believe in magic?

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Illinois
Polls

* If you believe this about the Sun-Times’ newest EXCLUSIVE POLL…

The survey also showed Quinn was hurting when it came to the women vote – with 38 percent of the women polled saying they’d vote for Quinn when compared to 55 percent of women backing Rauner.

And if you believe that Jim Oberweis is leading Dick Durbin among women 50-41…

And if you believe this…

The survey, conducted Wednesday in live telephone interviews by McKeon & Associates, shows Quinn and Rauner each with 45 percent of the Downstate vote – a segment of the state that’s traditionally loyal to Republicans.

[Actually, I think that’s supposed to be southern Illinois.]

And if you believe that Gov. Pat Quinn is leading among males 53-30…

And if you believe that Tom Cross is taking 27 percent of the African-American vote and is leading Mike Frerichs among Latinos 40-37…

Well, then it truly is silly season and I feel sorry for you.

* This is the same newspaper, you may recall, which published (on its front page, no less) the results of a 2006 poll showing Rod Blagojevich leading Judy Baar Topinka by 30 points, 56-26.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 4:59 pm

Comments

Really? Was the poll conducted by Steve Harvey, asking the opinions of 100 people?

Comment by cover Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:05 pm
Too many polls. ..just go out and report
But it could be that the real Mitt does not appwal to anyone
TTFN Mitt

Comment by circular firing squad Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:05 pm
Too bad a newspaper can’t be tried for malpractice.

Comment by admin Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:08 pm
Way to many cell phone voters.
No way Quinn that strong down state they hate him.
No way Rauner that strong with woman that’s a joke
So if you have any cute little puppy’s like Rich does I suggest you line his or her cage with that news paper, and this poll.

Comment by Capt. Von Trapp Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:15 pm
I read the poll while stuck in traffic…now my brain hurts.

Comment by Lunchbox Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:16 pm
chicago being a one paper town is looking more appealing…..ane likely

Comment by goose/gander Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:17 pm
I believe Quinn is ahead…but barely. Gonna be tight. However, this poll is clearly flawed. How can newspapers get away with publishing crap like that?

Comment by Voice of Reason Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:18 pm
Hey - Norseman - ask what the campaign is polling at…

If we’re talking magic and all

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:21 pm
Garbage poll, but it looks bad for Frerichs if in the same sample that has Quinn and Durbin way up he is still down.

Comment by Lionel R Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:25 pm
The poll reads like the audience of the game show “Family Feud” provided the answers. “Survey says!”

Comment by Under Further Review Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:29 pm
BTW mitt is ruuning his ad about his failed term limits scam

Comment by circular firing squad Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:34 pm
==Lionel R==

Except it doesn’t have Durbin way up. Let’s be realistic, Durbin is going to win by at least 15…I don’t think you can pull anything from this.

I’d say Quinn is likely up, Durbin is up huge and Frerichs-Cross is tied–given the bandwidth it wouldn’t surprise if Frerichs was slightly up right now.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:35 pm
As my kids would say, it’s opposite day!

Comment by Don't Worry, Be Happy Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:38 pm
Quinn has a big lead when it comes to the gnome and pixie vote, but Rauner has the goblin and unicorn vote locked up.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:39 pm
The survey, conducted Wednesday in live telephone interviews by McKeon & Associates… and tabulated by people who were really ripped…

Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:42 pm
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:42 pm
I think David St. Hubbins conducted this poll.

Comment by jc Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:42 pm
MJM

Awesome…so good!

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:42 pm
Where is Rod McCulloch to do a ‘really good’ poll when you need him…

Comment by mail guy Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:45 pm
This poll has Rauner up 50-37 in the Collars and 50-38 in the Cook County suburbs, it strikes me that the likelihood that these candidates perform essentially the same in the Cook County suburbs as in the Collars is incredibly unlikely.

There are so many things about this poll that are surprising it’s hard to say they just got a sample that leaned too much in one direction, the whole thing is weird and all over the place. Weird.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:46 pm
“…and that was Mrs. Jones 4th grade class, now Mrs. Smith’s 4th graders said their parents like the following candidates…”

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:47 pm
I amazed every day that the Sun-Times puts out an issue. Some Saturdays, the paper is about thirty pages in length.

The sports page is still decent.

Comment by Under Further Review Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:52 pm
Durbin won’t win by 15.

Comment by anonano Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 5:58 pm
But these polls go to eleven.

Comment by Nigel Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:02 pm
To give you a sense of how weird this is, of any public poll in the last three months that showed a geographic breakdown this poll has Rauner’s highest performance in both Chicago and the Cook County suburbs and Rauner’s lowest performance downstate. And it just barely misses being Rauner’s lowest performing poll in the Collars.

For Quinn it’s his highest downstate score by quite a bit and the only poll that had him higher in the collars was that weird Trib poll that had him way up. And this poll is basically tied with Quinn’s low water mark in suburban Cook.

Whoever said “opposite day” seems to be right on.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:03 pm
“Durbin won’t win by 15″

Wanna bet!

Comment by Magic Dragon Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:05 pm
They’re tied downstate…Quinn can’t lose!
A Dem is losing among women…Rauner’s gonna win!

As Rich points out, the crosstabs are all over the map. But at the end of the day, the toplines are consistent with other polling. Wacky.

Comment by Phil H Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:08 pm
Someone needs to put down their crack pipe. Anyone who does a poll with Jim Oberweis leading women by 11 points really should lose their jobs. The odds of that happening are the same as Jim Oberweis waking up on election day and being 7 feet tall.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:16 pm
Sure magic dragon. You are taking Durbin by 15 or more, right?

Comment by anonano Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:17 pm
This time of the year we all need a good laugh. I want to give a big thank you to the Sun-Times. This is better than The Onion.

Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:30 pm
Sad to say, but it looks like someone wrote the towlines they wanted then had an intern fill in the rest.

An intern from the janitorial department.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:38 pm
Rich, you have to be kidding, and it’s not even April Fools. If you’re gonna make fun of the Sun-Times, make it a little believable. This is just a bad joke based on a bad caricature. Not funny. They’re in their end time so have a little mercy.

Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:40 pm
Per Steve:

Or the same odds of Oberweis waking up as a U.S. Senator after Election Day.

Comment by Whatever Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:43 pm
In other news, Uggs are favored over MukMuks by Bolivians in Nova Scotia.

Comment by Casual Observer Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:46 pm
Somewhere, hopefully with a cold one in hand, McKinney is having a good laugh.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:50 pm
Were they polling Bizarro Illinois?

The pollsters and the Sun-Times didn’t hesitate to out this out? No one saw how wack this was?

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 6:51 pm
Margin of error +/- 33.1

Comment by À guy Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 7:16 pm
after reading an article published the other day about inaccurate polling i dont believe any of them (polls)

Comment by foster brooks Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 7:38 pm
823 likely registered voters-huh? What’s that even mean?

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 7:55 pm
This morning, my son said “Quinn rules, Rauner drools.” Has any polling been done on the possibility of Rauner drooling?

Comment by anon Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 8:38 pm
+++The odds of that happening are the same as Jim Oberweis waking up on election day and being 7 feet tall.+++

I’m picturing Oberweis in platform shoes, hoping this last ditch effort will work.

Comment by Politidork Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 8:42 pm
McKinney would have told them this was stupid.

Comment by Befuddled Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 9:08 pm
Will do Willy.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 9:41 pm
Thanks - Norseman -, history will be made with yiu at the helm.

- AA - is doing his part too.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 29, 14 @ 10:56 pm
Kudo to “Don’t Worry be Happy” –I forgot about ‘Opposite Day’!!

Comment by Pius Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 6:42 am
I dont’ think its necessary to discredit the pollster. Its a fact that the polls have been all over the board this election cycle, and we know polls had it all wrong in 2010.

Quinn will win but its tight — he will win with traditional democratic voters — its enough to take on Rauner.

Durbin will win as well.

I also think Frerichs will win because he is from outside Cook County, and will carry both the anti Cook and the Democratic Cook vote.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 6:53 am
We shall see.

Some pollster’s going to have the last laugh.

Comment by walker Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 7:48 am
I don’t know. I think all the results that skew in favor of my candidate are really accurate. Don’t be surprised if this makes some big noise on election day by shocking the pundits. However, I think the results that go against my candidate are definitely fishy and probably the result of bias on the part of the pollsters.

Comment by Carhart Representative Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 7:57 am
McKeon comes highly recommended, just look at his website: http://www.mckeonandassociates.com/

…smh

Comment by Donny Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 9:03 am