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Dem poll has big Bean lead - Updated x1

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Roll Call has obtained a poll comissioned by the DCCC which has Congressman Melissa Bean in front of David McSweeney by 19 points, 47-28, according to Political Wire.

The fact that an incumbent is below 50 in a Democratic poll done in a Republican-leaning district should raise some concerns, so this isn’t over. But, remember, there are three candidates in this race, so 50 percent plus one vote is not the final goal. [Hat tip to a reader.]

*** UPDATE *** As a commenter rightly pointed out, another Democratic poll had Bean ahead by just 3. [pdf file]

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 1:13 pm

Comments

Real Clear Politics showed 3 point spread.

Where is Cal?

Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 1:27 pm
Either way, Bean is winning. Look for Bean to win by a fair, but not huge margin.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 1:57 pm
is this fuzzy math or bad polling? and what is the third candidate polling at?

Comment by moderate Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 2:07 pm
One theory is that the first poll was a computer based poll and that tends to push people towards an answer if they aren’t sure–so Republicans tend to go for a Republican. If McSweeney is having problems with name ID the two findings may be perfectly compatible—I’d need to see the cross tabs on the DCCC poll to figure out if that’s a possibility or not.

Also remember, 1 in 20 polls is wrong. That’s why I don’t feel too comfortable until you get 3 polls so you can get a better sense of reality.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 2:25 pm
I think it was incorrectly assumed the RT Strategies\ConstituentDynamics robopoll was an internal Democratic poll because the initial source linked here was a left leaning blog. As far as I can tell it was non-partisan.

http://www.constituentdynamics.com/
http://www.rtstrategies.com/index.htm

Comment by HappyToaster Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 2:34 pm
At this point, Bean’s name recognition, whether
you agree or disagree with her, likely far exceeds that of her opponent. Young woman takes out long-term hack pol yada yada yada. And annoying the unions might not be as catastrophic in her district as in others. This in addition to all the money the Dems are pouring in there of course.

Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Sep 14, 06 @ 7:14 pm
ConstituentDynamics is about +6 for the Democrats over every other poll for the 22 or so races they are tracking.

Comment by Michael Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 1:06 pm