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Predictions and punditry abound

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• Illinois

* Larry Saboto moved the governor’s race from pure tossup to slight advantage to Gov. Quinn. It’s getting some play on Twitter, but I dunno. It’s just one more bloviating pundit from a far-away island, as far as I’m concerned…

We can’t quite believe it, but Gov. Pat Quinn (D) may actually survive. Despite ugly approval ratings, Quinn is running essentially even with businessman Bruce Rauner (R). Illinois is a blue state, and in what is pretty much a coin-flip, we’re taking Quinn. LEANS DEMOCRATIC

* The national angle from McClatchy…

Will voters throw incumbent governors out? There’s a long list of vulnerable Republicans, notably Wisconsin’s Scott Walker, Michigan’s Rick Snyder and Kansas’ Sam Brownback, as well as Democrats Pat Quinn of Illinois and John Hickenlooper of Colorado. All are in jeopardy; if all or most fall, the story line becomes a voter rejection of incumbents, regardless of party.

* Zorn…

A decisive number of voters are ready for a change at the top in Springfield, even if they’re not at all sure what that change would entail. They want to give someone else a chance to try to ride herd over the Democratic legislature, even though they’re unclear on exactly who that someone else is.

On the other hand (and who really knows?) a majority could vote vote against Quinn and the governor might still be reelected. Why? That Libertarian Grimm.

* Bernie…

But having Libertarian candidate Chadd Grimm on the ballot, I believe, along with most observers, will take more from Rauner.

This leads me to my usual role the weekend before an election of predicting outcomes of major races. My predictions are not endorsements, and the fact that I’ve complained about Rauner’s campaign style doesn’t stray from some past things I’ve written. In my November 2006 predictions, I said that Rod Blagojevich would win a second term despite my determination, in that column, that he had “placed himself behind the bubble of officialdom.” He beat Republican Judy Baar-Topinka and won that ill-fated term.

This time, I think factors such as Rauner’s 16-month-old talk about unions will help drive Democratic turnout and — as weird as it seems — give Quinn another four years. We’ll see.

On the other hand, national headwinds appear pretty darned strong against the Democrats and Rauner has run an infinitely better campaign than Bill Brady did four years ago.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:00 am

Comments

1. –Rauner has run an infinitely better campaign than Bill Brady did four years ago.–

   Not arguing, but that might be damning with faint praise even with the “infinitely” part! I think Rauner made a huge mistake letting Quinn and the Democrats define him early on as an evil multimillionaire without responding, which was beyond dumb given that we had just seen this playbook work before with Obama and Romney. I think the closeness of the primary rattled him - he seemed to think he could make nice with the unions and tamp down their turnout. He’s done a couple of smart things, but overall his campaign is just brute force and “I’m not Quinn/Madigan.” We’ll see.

   Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:09 am

2. I think you meant to say, national headwinds appear pretty strong for Republicans…

   Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:11 am

3. Actual the Republicans would be enjoying tailwinds. But let’s not split hairs.

   Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:16 am

4. Actually the Republicans would be enjoying tailwinds. But let’s not split hairs.

   Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:16 am

5. My prediction

   https://capitolfax.com/2014/10/03/question-of-the-day-1917/#comment-11629247

   Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:23 am

6. My prediction…if turnout is over 53% Rauner by 2

   If turnout is average and Grimm pulls 3% - Quinn wins by 2%.

   Comment by 2 Cents... Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:25 am

7. My prediction is over 90% of incumbents will win, including Quinn.

   Comment by Angry Republican Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:27 am

8. If you want a salesman for Illinois, write-in Jim Delaney.

   He sold ABC on that the Ohio State/Illini matchup was the network’s prime time Saturday game of the week when they had Auburn/Ole Miss and Arkansas/Miss. St. at the same time on their ESPN stations.

   Now there’s a miracle worker.

   Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:28 am

9. Will be interesting though to see if Rauner wins as many downstate counties as Brady did 4 yrs ago.

   Recall the way Brady flamed intrastate resentment towards Chicago. Brady did the “I’m one of you shtick” in a big way.

   I don’t see that same energy for the Chicago billionaire downstate.

   But someone down there tell me I’m wrong.

   Comment by too obvious Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:32 am

10. Dr. Sabato is no worse of a pundit than others that you frequently praise on this blog. The least you could do is spell his name correctly.

    Comment by Researcher Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:36 am

11. ===national headwinds appear pretty darned strong against the Democrats===

    Headwinds aren’t nearly as strong as they were in 2010. Not sure Kirk gets elected in 2014.

    Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:49 am

12. =Dr. Sabato is no worse of a pundit than others that you frequently praise on this blog. The least you could do is spell his name correctly.
    Sabato has more expertise and credibility than Mr. Miller.

    Comment by Apocalypse Now Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:52 am

13. “- Researcher - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    Dr. Sabato is no worse of a pundit than others that you frequently praise on this blog. The least you could do is spell his name correctly.

    - Apocalypse Now - Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 9:52 am:

    Sabato has more expertise and credibility than Mr. Miller.”

    Yeah, but does Larry wake you up in the morning with awesome music and stay open on line all weekend to keep a community going? AND with very, very smart commentary…. from Mr. Miller? I’ll take Miller over Sabato.

    Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:02 am

14. Thought you might enjoy this satirical take on the whole process. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/11/03/if_it_happened_there_how_would_we_cover_the_midterm_elections_if_they_happened.html

    Comment by Nuclear Bozo Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:15 am

15. Mitt ran a better campaign than Brady Huh
    Mitt was not accused of incinerating dogs — or whatever NoTaxBill wanted — but he replaced it with the no social agenda scam, censoring McKinney and all the bizwiz scams. Mitt proved he is unsuitable for the office

    Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:26 am

16. Researcher, Apocalypse Now:
    Then start your own blog! Go away!

    Comment by Anonymost Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 10:48 am

17. will the side arm republicans be watching voting booths?

    Comment by foster brooks Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 11:10 am

18. When the votes are counted, about 1/2 of the pundits will be correct and will brag about their savvy political prognostications, and others will ignore any predictions they made. Most will, in hindsight declare the winners of the close races to have outsmarted and outwitted their opponents, knowing that the slightest difference in weather, national mood, and overall timing made far more of a difference than anything the candidates had the ability to control. Some will try to support their invalid predictions as having been correct, were it not for voter fraud, dirty tricks, and overall despicable behavior.

    Comment by AC Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:10 pm

19. Still confused about these supposed national Republican headwinds. If so, why are Republicans on the ropes in Georgia and Kansas? Why are bellwether New Hampshire and North Carolina trending Democratic?

    Comment by K3 Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 12:19 pm

20. Trampled By Turtles predict Victory.

    It’s on youtube.

    Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 4:18 pm

21. Drove past my polling place just outside Springfield on my way to run an errand around 4. The parking lot was about 80% full, certainly more than usual, especially for a midterm. In my precinct, Rauner came in 3rd in the primary, so I am guessing that, even though this area is heavily Republican, that there are a lot of state employees who cast ballots here. What that means for this election, I guess we will find out.

    Comment by AC Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 4:35 pm

22. Wrong thread….sorry, feel free to delete my last comment.

    Comment by AC Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 4:36 pm

23. I predict Judy’s coat tails won’t be big enough for Tom Cross.

    Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Tuesday, Nov 4, 14 @ 4:36 pm

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