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Once again, it’s the economy, stupid

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* I have my own take on the minimum wage issue for subscribers, but I like this one, too…

The lesson of Tuesday’s minimum wage votes is that Democrats can do more on the minimum wage, not that they can help themselves politically by talking about it more. Just because a proposal is popular does not mean it can be a keystone in your economic agenda. As Kevin Drum of Mother Jones has noted, Democrats have an economic agenda that is heavily attuned to the poor; it’s much less clear what they would do for the middle class.

Many policies that help the poor are favored by the middle class. But if politicians want to win the votes of the middle class, they have to campaign on issues that affect them directly. Minimum wage increases do not serve that political end.

* So, yeah, the minimum wage hike referendum passed with almost 67 percent of the vote, but the candidate most associated with that referendum, Pat Quinn, lost by five points.

Quinn simply did not have an economic message that resonated strongly enough with the middle class.

* Here’s a striking result: 2010 exit polling showed that 26 percent of respondents belonged to union households. That number rose to 32 percent in 2014 exit polling. So, unions did a good job of getting their folks to the polls.

However, Bill Brady won 31 percent of union households in 2010. Bruce Rauner won 41 percent of union households this year.

* Or check out this one: In 2010, Brady got 39 percent of the vote from those who made less than $100K a year. This year, Rauner took 46 percent of that group.

* In 2010, 49 percent of those who said they were worried about economic conditions sided with Bill Brady. This year, it was 54 percent for Rauner.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 11:58 am

Comments

You’re spot on about the minimum wage and the over negativity.

Also…. I gotta say Quinn showed his true colors last night. All he hadd to say was something like:

I’m not formally conceding because we have people that haven’t even voted yet, but it looks like we’re going to come up short. If that’s the case, congratulations to the next governor, you got a lot of work to do. And if the people have spoken, they have spoken, I hope they’re happy with what they got.

Instead Kwame Raoul and Paul Vallas made a complete jerks of themselves, and the sour grapes Quinn speech was classless.

Also, I have to say the funniest part of the night was Rahm showing up to Welles Park to appease his yuppie neighbors at 8o’clock about the polling problems…more likely he sabotaged it.

Can only imagine what Ed Kelly is thinking.

Comment by North Shore Joe Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:04 pm
I never bought in to advisory ballot questions driving turnout.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:05 pm
Quinn campaigned heavily on it but one reason I did not vote for him was it was all talk. He had 6 years to get it done, yet chose to “save” the issue as an election ploy. He wants to say he is for it yet his actions the last 6 years were loud and clear.

To grab the middle class campaigning heavily on a graduated income tax promising middle class tax cuts would of won me over instead.

Comment by Very Fed Up Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:06 pm
And let’s expand on this from the point of view of a statewide Democratic candidate. In 2010 the statewide Democrats got pounded in the downstate 96 counties in a way I thought couldn’t be repeated because it was just so bad. Yet, Quinn actually did worse and Rauner actually did better downstate yesterday than in 2010.

Downstate voters are not necessarily aligned with the typical Democratic position on social issues like guns or abortion. If Democrats are going to compete for those votes again it has to be on economic issues.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:09 pm
The teachers and other public employees had less enthusiasm for Quinn after he cut their pensions. What happens now is anybody’s guess.

Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:11 pm
I predict Andy Manar will compete for downstate votes on school funding issues.

Comment by Bill White Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:12 pm
Yeah, teachers knew that Rauner was bad news, but a lot still couldn’t stomach voting for Quinn.

Comment by Carhart Representative Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:13 pm
As Very Fed Up notes, people clearly supported a minimum wage increase, but then had to wonder with Quinn campaigning on it, what exactly was stopping you the past six years from passing an increase? Maybe next time, officials will actually govern and accomplish something and run on that, instead of floating meaningless advisory referenda to score political points.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:14 pm
I am curious as to what Rauner will do for the 40% of union workers that voted for him.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:17 pm
Ron Burgundy,

Amen…

Never got that one…

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:18 pm
I’d submit the reason underlying the change from 2010-2014 in the levels of support from those in the sub-$100K income bracket is actually quite simple. The household budgets of the middle class were hurt when Gov. Quinn signed that middle-of-the-night tax increase into law. And in return for the increased taxes, they got bupkis. Will Rauner be able to do away with the tax? We’ll see. But I’d bet a large number of those earning, say, $40,000-$100,000 knew there wasn’t even going to be a chance to relax the tax should they vote to reelect the guy who signed the tax increase, and then campaigned on wanting to make it permanent.

Comment by JB13 Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:19 pm
I don’t get it…can anyone offer an explanation.

Yesterday, Illinois voters said yes to:

A higher minimum wage
Birth control in health insurance plans
No restrictions on voting
Expansion of crime victims rights
and a millionaire tax increase

but said yes to Republicans…

Who generally say no to the above issues.

Anyone?

Comment by Deep South Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:21 pm
The winner doesnt give his speech until the concession speech of the loser. At least that would be the classy thing to do. But I guess when you’re from Wilmettistan with a gazillion dollars, class doesnt matter.

Comment by Del Clinkton Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:23 pm
@Wordslinger:

The referenda questions were a big hit with the printers who got the contracts for preparing the legal notices and pamphlets.

Comment by Under Further Review Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:23 pm
One can concede gracefully or be the south end of a north bound horse.

As others have said, he had six-years to accomplish something to make Illinoisans proud of the accomplishments of our state once again.

Quinn blew this himself!

Comment by Sunshine Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:24 pm
Quinn’s support was disingenuous.
He couldn’t promise AFSCME he wouldn’t lay off state workers, so this time he promised the union they’d get their raises via minimum wage increase.

Additionally, Quinn needed to counter Rauner’s property tax freeze and Pat didn’t have the credibility to make a similar proposal. Governor Quinn needed to counter his demand for the 5% income tax as well.

So, his minimum wage increase proposal was politically astute, and unthinking to the point where no one among the Quinn crew knew how to take that ball and really score points with it.

Look at where the messages for Quinn came from. Defense. Anti-Rauner. How much time was spent trying to create a winning Quinn message? I don’t see a lot. There could have been some jaw-boning on how to make the minimum wage issue end up in votes beyond union and entry level worker constituencies, but that message was lower priority over mocking Rauner’s old van and wine club.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:25 pm
I agree it’s about the economy, but here’s the thing: we’ve heard nothing but bad, borderline apocalyptic news about how poorly the economy is doing. Nothing but the glass is half-empty. A jobs report comes out and the naysayers tell us the numbers look good because too many people have dropped out of the labor force. Our economy is growing at 2% or more, which isn’t setting the world on fire but that’s way better than most developed economies.

My point isn’t that everything is fine. It’s not all fine, and there is a lot of work that still needs to be done. But for the past six years, the crying from Republicans that the sky was falling and the economic end was near really set up a climate where we became a nation of people who think our best days are behind us.

That’s the tragic result of a calculated political strategy of doom and gloom because to suggest things were improving we then might, just might have to give President Obama a little credit.

If nothing else comes from this electoral shellacking, I hope it means we no longer have to bad mouth our own state to score cheap political points.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:25 pm
===The winner doesnt give his speech until the concession speech of the loser===

Sorry, but when the loser refuses to concede even though there is zero chance of victory, the winner has the right and the duty to speak.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:26 pm
While the winner and his team should be congratulated, don’t you think that when we look back on this election that we will say that a trained monkey could have won it for the GOP? Quinn was very unpopular all across the board - the GOP nominated a moderate and it was the 2nd off year election for President Obama.

Comment by paddyrollingstone Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:28 pm
=I am curious as to what Rauner will do for the 40% of union workers that voted for him.=

Hopefully create a sustainable, but perhaps not as excessive, pension and retirement benefit system.

What’s that old saying about it being better to have one bird in the hand than two in the bush?

Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:28 pm
The winner doesn’t give his speech until the loser is given an OPPORTUNITY to concede. Quinn was given the opportunity, when all the media outlets had already called the race against him, and didn’t take it. I don’t care what race it is or who the combatants are, in the face of such overwhelming evidence, if you don’t concede, you deserve to have your opponent declare victory in your face.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:29 pm
North Shore Joe-What did Raoul say?

Comment by Joe Kotlarz Fan Club Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:29 pm
You all can type what ever you want. Government is over. Public is over. The American middle class is finished. You will take what scraps the billionaires throw you. And you will be taught to like it.

Comment by James Knell Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:29 pm
This is spot on. It seems like The only middle class issue Dems have been pushing are saving public sector pensions. There has been very little discussion on how to improve middle class wages and retirement security for the private sector.

Comment by Father Time Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:31 pm
Quinn showed his true colors for being a sore loser .. Unions democrats ,insiders, Springfield ruling class Losers ….. THE BIG winner… Rhambo
…His buddy Rauner will find a way to bailout Chicago pension mess

Adios Quinn LOL

Comment by better days Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:32 pm
Rauner can get this state moving by repairing Workers Comp. Dump the Quinn Madigan tax and find some way to work us out of the pension mess.

We have no hope with Quinn there would be a light at the end of the tunnel, except Madigan’s back side.
Rahm now will have an ally for his pension mess.

Comment by Mokenavince Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:35 pm
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:17 pm said:

“I am curious as to what Rauner will do for the 40% of union workers that voted for him.”

Only apply 40% of his planned cuts to them?

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:36 pm
Yesterday, Illinois voters said yes to:

=A higher minimum wage
Birth control in health insurance plans
No restrictions on voting
Expansion of crime victims rights
and a millionaire tax increase

but said yes to Republicans…=

These meaningless ballot issues are easy to vote for when you don’t have to bother cnosidering the consequences.

What do think the voter response would be if the voters were honestly given these choices:

Do you support increasing the minimum wages by 20% if it increases your food costs by 10% and results in 20% higher teenage unemployment?

Do you support mandating birth control in health insurance coverage if it means increasing your premiums by $50 per year, even if you don’t use that benefit?

Do you support lowering the standards of voter verification if it means enough illegitimate voters cast ballots to overcome the eligible voter results?

Expansion of crime victims rights is pretty much supported by every Illinois Republican that I know.

Would you support a higher “millionaires tax” even if it means losing tax revenues from “millionaires” leaving Illinois, and taking their businesses, employees, and spending revenues with them?

My guess is that if the ballot measures actually stated the sacrifices required of the voters themselves, or were even polled as such, the support for these “initiatives” would drop through the floor.

Offering “free stuff” is always popular in polls and elections,even if it’s for someone else. Tack on the sacrifices the voters would need to make to get the “free stuff” and the the results change dramatically, but I have yet to see a poll presented this way for politics.

Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:43 pm
As someone firmly in the middle class, trying to pay off student loans the overwhelming impression was that the tax hike was put in primarily to pay into government employee pensions that are simply unavailable to the rest of us. Telling people they should live a lower quality of life in one of the most regressive tax setups in the country is just a non-seller. Rauner is not going to move towards a graduated tax but Quinn has made it clear despite he won’t get it done either. One candidate was offering middle class tax breaks while the other wasnt. The choice was clear and made it easy for a lot of democrats like myself to switch over.

Comment by Very Fed Up Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:48 pm
As far as the minimum wage, that can’t be a stand-alone issue, I agree.

I guess with Rauner it could be the “tabula rasa” effect, as Rich or others stated before. Rauner is almost literally the blank tablet upon which voters wrote their hopes.

Now is the time to put aside silly plans that have little chance of working, like property tax freezes and lowering the income tax and enacting a slew of service taxes. That won’t work, unless there is much more taxation and/or drastic cuts.

I don’t get what union members like about having their rights threatened by multimillionaires and billionaires, in regards to strong union support for Rauner. Why are so many so-called working class people willingly baring their necks so that the likes of the Koch brothers and other super-wealthy anti-union forces can chop at them. Don’t they realize that when middle class protections are diminished, they are harmed economically, and that stripping union rights in the name of job creation is not a remedy for a strong middle class?

Unions are not perfect, as are no human organizations. They are prone to greed, corruption, paranoia, apathy and all other negative traits. Unions clearly improve workers’ standard of living, as a whole.

The exit polls show a deep divide between Democrats’ optimism and the deep pessimism of Republicans. That’s not good. We need to be optimistic. America is getting better. We came from a hellhole of an economic crash, though we have to improve more. Is there no credit for that?

Republicans strongly oppose gay marriage, marijuana legalization, Obamacare, etc., and in one exit poll, they overwhelmingly favor deportation of undocumented residents, or “illegals,” as they are called often by people on the right.

Democrats need to continue seizing on the differences between the parties and make a clear distinction between the two parties. There should be no more running away from Obama, like Grimes did in Kentucky.

Latinos and African-Americans overwhelmingly favor Democrats, per recent exit polls.

The Republican wave is to a large degree an angry backlash, and one that is not really justified.

I believe Obama will go down in history as a good president. He is not like FDR, as far as his ability to connect with people, but he is not the monster depicted by many on the right.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:00 pm
Kolartz,

Raoul used the “these people” line when referring to those he felt ignorantly voted against their own self interest. (AKA his own constituency.)

Then proceeded to immediately start complaining about money’s influence in the election.

Was also pretty flustered and not composed.

Can see why he’s never run for higher office.

Comment by North Shore Joe Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:22 pm
- Very Fed Up - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:48 pm:

Actually, the tax hike was put in place to pay for all the spending that was done with the money that should have been going to the pensions the past 40 years.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:36 pm
- Very Fed Up - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:48 pm:

And if you think those promised tax cuts are going to stay around, you’re going to be very disappointed. Yes, the income tax rate will temporarily fall from 5% back to 3.75% on Jan. 1, but that won’t pay the State’s bills. There are going to be new / changed revenue sources (taxes) that get put in place. Whether you personally win or lose on taxes is going to depend exactly how those new sources get inplemented … but I’m willing to bet the overall revenue generated from taxes will be higher next year.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:40 pm
In my official capacity (from late May through last week) and doing some small sample poll watching yesterday while visiting Mrs. Sleep at our local polling place, I heard several people grumble about the verbage and complexities of the non-binding referenda and the amendments. As noted, that may be a small sample size but it makes me wonder how many people just zeroed in on buzz words and circled or touched “yes” or “no”.

Mr. Drum is correct. As I have noted numerous times before that people who earn the actual minimum wage constitute less than 5% of the total U.S. workforce. The amount of time we spend talking about this one specific issue is incredible.

Of course, now that he has lost, my guess is that Governor Quinn makes raising the minimum wage his top veto and lame duck session priority.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:52 pm
@Grandson of Man:

I, too, am disheartened at so many union folks casting ballots for Rauner when I think that is against the economic self-interest of them and most people of Illinois.

But let’s not pretend that some of the blame for that result does not fall on the Democrats of this state who made unions their punching bags for 3 years and then when the election comes up… they’re asked to go to the mat to save the Democrats’ behinds on election day.

The same Democrats who increased the strike threshold for teachers unions, the same Democrats who support funneling taxpayer funding for public education to anti-union clouted bigshots like Rauner, the same Democrats who passed legislation hurting union workers’ earned pension benefits, the same Democrats who in most cases do not actually stump for the idea of unions helping the economy and our standard of living outside of speeches at union halls and superficial union support.

Quinn made many tactical errors in this campaign. One big one for me is the Vallas pick. It did nothing to help turnout or balance the ticket, and it cut against some of his messaging and possible attacks on Rauner re: schools if he was planning to run as an economic populist.

@Father Time:
“This is spot on. It seems like The only middle class issue Dems have been pushing are saving public sector pensions. There has been very little discussion on how to improve middle class wages and retirement security for the private sector.”

Just quoting your post in full because I agree. And I would just add to it besides that the Dems both in Illinois and nationally really seem to have no message for the economic security of younger middle-class workers who are not close to retirement age. We’ve been told this state and country is broke our whole adult lives to the point that almost no one under 35 actually believes Social Security or state pensions will be there for them when they retire, so it’s a lot harder to scare us about Republicans taking those things away from us when we don’t expect to have them to begin with. Dems need a new economic message for white college-educated voters. These voters are with Dems on social issues by and large. But often either see the Dems as too focused on the poor but not the middle class, or see Dems as just as focused on the rich as Republicans are.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 1:53 pm
Sure, let’s try an expanded social security and unemployment insurance scheme. It will be at least as popular as giving people affordable health insurance. People don’t want a handout. They want their neighbor knocked down and to feel allied with wealth and power. See it in Wisconsin.

Comment by James Knell Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 2:24 pm
~~- Very Fed Up - Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 12:48 pm:
“democrats like myself to switch over”~~
You’re obviously no Democrat, but you *may* be a democrat.
P.S. RNUG is right.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 5, 14 @ 3:28 pm