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Schneider may be back in ‘16

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Illinois

* Considering that Bob Dold lost two years ago in a Democratic landslide and took his seat back from Brad Schneider in this big GOP year, a Schneider comeback wouldn’t be all that surprising. From Politico…

Illinois Rep. Brad Schneider, one of 10 House Democrats who lost reelection, stood before his 200 fellow congressional Democrats during a glum gathering Thursday to say goodbye and thank you.

When he finished, Schneider, a bespectacled and mild-mannered former business management consultant, was taken back by the reception. “Run again! Run again!” many of his colleagues chanted.

Only two weeks after a political blowout that left Democrats with their smallest House minority in over 80 years, at least a half-dozen of the party’s candidates who fell short are already being courted to run again in 2016. And some of them are seriously considering it.

Their thinking reflects what has become prevailing wisdom in Democratic circles: that presidential elections are as favorable to the party as midterms are punishing. Democrats who lost close races in battleground districts this year could just as easily come out on top in 2016, when the electorate is sure to be younger, more diverse and more liberal. […]

Republican strategists disagree. They argue that many of the Democrats are damaged after coming under a barrage of political attacks in 2014 and are unlikely to fare better if they try again.

“If I were a Republican incumbent in a tough district, I’d prefer a challenger with built-in negatives and a record to attack,” said Andy Sere, a GOP ad maker.

Thoughts?

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 9:21 am

Comments

Will he disclose his tax returns in the next campaign? Maybe former federal prosecutor Scott Drury runs?

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 9:25 am
I don’t know much about Schneider, but I wonder how much of a drag President Obama’s foreign policies were on his reelection effort. There are lots of Jewish households in the district that are concerned about the Middle East and US relations with Israel.

Comment by Under Further Review Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 9:27 am
I think running two highly competitive races is enough for one lifetime. Schneider’s numbers closely mirror “generic Democrat” for that district.

Someone new who has more charisma and is more appealing across the board would fare better.

Comment by Siriusly Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:00 am
Schneider is a weak candidate who never connected with the district. Dold only lost by 2000 votes in ‘12 while Obama crushed it in the district. In the meantime, Dold, like many GOPers seriously ramped up his ground game, especially early voting.

The Dems will need a much better candidate than Brad if they want a hope of beating Dold.

Comment by Adam Smith Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:12 am
This seat will flip and flop at least one more time before it’s said and done.

Schneider should think on it, but think on it after June of 2015.

Too raw right now.

Keep in mind a sitting Gov. Rauner “owes” Kirk and Dold. Rauner being in that sitting governor position, big ask to take those 3 on again.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:13 am
Dan Seals won’t be doing much in about 2 months…

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:25 am
===“If I were a Republican incumbent in a tough district, I’d prefer a challenger with built-in negatives and a record to attack,” said Andy Sere, a GOP ad maker.===

I agree with this. I even think Schneider hurt himself by running a less intellectually stimulating campaign in a pretty intellectual district. He even doubled down on some condescending themes. Dold’s 2 years will help determine what Schneider does, but he really was a boring and unstimulating candidate.

People need to make an important distinction between a Presidential year and a Presidential year with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Hillary is neither fresh or new. Obama was both. Obama and Kennedy type years only come along twice a century or so.

Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:28 am
As underwhelming a candidate he was, I’d be surprised if he ran again. The district was drawn for a Democrat and he lost by 4 points. This isn’t IL-12 –which was a dead heat between Obama and Romney. National Democrats should be embarrassed by losing this one and, frankly, should be looking for someone new. Melinda Bush, perhaps?

Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:28 am
== “If I were a Republican incumbent in a tough district, I’d prefer a challenger with built-in negatives and a record to attack,” said Andy Sere, a GOP ad maker. ==

Yes, but . . . these would all be recycled negatives. Much like the negatives brought against a challenger/open seat winner, they will all end up being old news if they are recycled.

On the other hand, Dold will have two years of US House Republican shenanigans to defend.

I’m not saying Schneider should run again, just saying that it’s a mistake to think that the same negatives that worked in 2014 will work in 2016.

Comment by VM Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:42 am
There’s no reason why Schneider couldn’t accomplish exactly what Dold accomplished. That said, this is a district that should produce any number of high quality candidates and as long as Dold is aligning himself with Paul Ryan’s budgets and the nutty GOP house, he will be vulnerable.

Comment by slow down Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:48 am
Schneider is an entirely underwhelming candidate in a district full of bright, articulate people. Dems can (and should) do better and they are likely to beat Dold.

Comment by Way Northsider Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 11:09 am
The cycle is crazy short. Anyone thinking of running against Dold has to start serious planning and preparation early next year. There are some good potential Dem candidates in the district.

Dold wasn’t especially good in Congress, and won’t be again, but he is an exceptional retail campaigner. Schneider loses on the latter score.

Still, the national waves do roll over people in these jobs.

Comment by walker Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 11:11 am
In all honesty—unless they are independently wealthy, what do guys like Schneider do in the interim when he’s pondering another congressional run? Most candidates have a spouse and kids to support, a mortgage, retirement to save for, no?

Comment by John Galt Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 11:14 am
==- Team Sleep - Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 10:25 am:==

Dan works in the private sector now.

Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 11:44 am
In 2016, a Republican will be elected president, and he or she will have coattails. Dold will only lose, if the Democrat has a lot of political experience. State Sen. Terry Link or former State Sen. Susan Garrett will do better than Schneider.

Comment by Conservative Veteran Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 11:55 am
If he is sincere, Mr. Schneider needs to spend the next year with normal people who shop at Wal-Mart, drive domestic minivans, and don’t have cleaning ladies for their McMansions. His campaign was dismissive, instead of inclusive.

Bruce Rauner was laughed at for his watch and jacket, wine clubs and mansions, but Rauner didn’t make voters feel bad for not being like him. Rauner was not great at showing sincerity, but even Bruce did better than Schneider in pretending.

If he wants to run again, Schneider needs to get out of his lifestyle and be seen embracing other’s. He got the votes of those wanting an elitist as their congressman, now he needs to try to get a majority.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 12:38 pm
I don’t care if he runs again or not. He is what he is and he won’t be much different in 2 years. The reality is that neither Brad nor his staff understands the district or ever connected with its broad and varied constituents. To be sure there were Democratic voters who voted for him because he was a Democrat and they are, too. But not very many of them voted for him because they were inspired by him, or admired him, or respected his brain power, or thought he’d done a great job for them last two years as congressman for the 10th. The final numbers further prove that plenty of Democrats in the 10th voted for Dold.

Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 1:46 pm
Let’s have a primary. Rotering, Bush, Drury, Schneider, or Richardson could all beat Dold with a Democratic president on the top of the ticket.

Comment by anon Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 1:46 pm
I would rethink the strategy of a boom during presidential runs. If the D’s think they got beat bad this year, they ain’t seen nothing yet.

I will go out on a limb early and say the R sweep will continue in 2 years. People have had enough of the lib D’s. Even the dumb R’s can’t lose in 2 years. Mark my words, it will be another drumming courtesy of the my way or highway of the last 8 years of D’s.

Comment by allknowingmasterofracoondom Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 1:55 pm
Democrats are deluding themselves if they think it was the offyear that did Schneider in. The numbers just don’t add up. Schneider got thoroughly spanked, and ran one of the worst campaigns in the country.

Furthermore, Unlike in 2012, Dold won’t have to face redistricting right in the middle of his term this time around. He can spend the next two years connecting with the same people he will be asking to vote for him.

Comment by The Ardvark Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 2:53 pm
UFR, you kill me. Enough with the stereotypes, dude.

Jesus H (Christian savior, Muslim prophet, Jewish false prophet), you need to turn off the cable, dude.

Your Obama Derangement Syndrome is scary.

But if you want to try to play in the stereotype sandbox of the North Shore, American Jews, Israeli Jews, and Israel, the polls and literature will show you a wide range of opinions on American foreign policy and Israeli politics.

It ain’t all Likud all the time, despite what Fox tells you.

Obama got 70 percent plus of the American Jewish vote both times. So I doubt he hurt the only Jew in the race among Jewish voters.

Comment by Wordslinger Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 7:03 pm
The District is demanding and well educated. Bob Dold is an excellent campaigner, though he has vulnerable positions on major issues. Congressman Schneider simply did not have any energy in his last campaign and his staff literally mailed it in with paid mailers for the final month of the campaign. We need someone better if we expect to win regardless of the election cycle.

Comment by FortyFour Tuesday, Nov 18, 14 @ 11:11 pm