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Question of the day

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Illinois

Handicap your local congressional race.

Also, tell us if there’s anything new going on in the campaign.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:50 am

Comments

Roskam will win. He’s too conservative for the district but Duckworth is too liberal. He will be held to less than 53% but then he’ll be in for a long time.

Comment by bipartisan Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:11 am
Hare by 20 points, Zinga is the worst candidate ever!

Comment by downstateyp Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:22 am
I have a good feeling Danny Davis will be able to pull through.

Comment by HANKSTER Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:25 am
jesse jackson, by a lot. perhaps only the shaw brothers vote against him. that was a tough one…

Comment by bored now Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:34 am
Roskam ,despite inept early campaigning will win w/58% of votes.

Comment by Wumpus Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:35 am
I agreee with HANKSTER. Davis returns to Congress with 87-91% of the vote. His Republican opponent is completely invisible.

Politics1.com doesn’t even list a website for his opponent. The guy lives in the district downtown.

Oh, wait, Charles Hutchinson does have a free webite.

In the latest facebook.com poll, challenger Charles Hutchinson (R) and Incumbent Danny Davis (D) are locked in a tight race for the U.S. Congressional seat in Illinois 7th House District with only 10 points seperating them. Of those polled, 44.95% supporting Hutchinson and 55.05% supporting Davis. Facebook, launched in 2004 has over 9 million users and is the seventh most trafficked site on the web.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:37 am
I’m moving from Ray LaHood’s district to Ray LaHood’s district. Hmmm…I think Ray will win by at least 50%. Steve Waterworth needs to give up and run for dog catcher.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:48 am
We haven’t had a race in my district in 30 years and we probably never will.

Comment by Bill Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:51 am
Zinga has a good chance in this heavily gerrymandered district. Her recent profiling comment was brilliant. This “misstatement” is supported by the majority of voters. Hare is smart not to continue making it an issue since it only reaffirms her connection to voters’ beliefs.

However, she has a tough road ahead. Every Democrat west of the Illinois River, and those living in poor areas of Decatur and Springfield has been gerrrymandered into the 17th. With his seniority back in 2000, Evans cherrypicked the few remaining rural Democrats into this district.

While it has been trending Republican, 2006 may not be the tipping point year for the 17th. What Zinga has to discover is whether this district which sleptwalked to the incumbant for over 2 decades will show it’s true colors in 2006. She can do it, but Hare is showing very savvy political skills.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 10:40 am
Hare who? On name recognition alone, strangely, Zinga’s way ahead, by far. At least in my traditionally blue precinct in Springfield, she is. Her stunt last week, even though not well-received by the press, rocketed her name to the top of everyone’s mind. Ask us again in a month.

Comment by Marie Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:04 am
Lip II beats Wardingley in a landslide. If only none of the above were an option.

Comment by cermak_rd Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:12 am
Unless Mike McDermott gets going on his write in campaign it looks like we will be stuck with the kid Lipinski.

Comment by anon Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:15 am
Kirk will beat Seals by 2-4 points because of lower than usual turnout for moderate Republicans. If this race ends as close as I predict, the Dems will regret not doing more here.

Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:18 am
Are you kidding even if I was actually at home in my congressional district there wouldn’t be too much to report. I already know who’s going to win.

Comment by Levois Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:20 am
Danny Davis.

The mystery here is why the GOP has been so bad at mobilizing the high income areas of this district. With all the money in Streeterville and the new west side areas, you would think that this would be one district ripe for a real GOP challenge.

Of course, with Gordon running the 42nd for the GOP — which should be a fertile area for the GOP — they just have not done anything to mobilize.

What this district needs is a small government Republican. We don’t have any of that. Chicago’s GOP really needs to get its act together.

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:32 am
The mystery here is why the GOP has been so bad at mobilizing the high income areas of this district.

Because they like Davis… better off targeting the low income people.

In mine, Hastert of course. But this will be his last term… then things get interesting.

Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 12:00 pm
If anyone wants a good laugh, go to Illinois Review…one of their crack “pundits” wrote about how the biggest upset this campaign season will be Rahm losing his house seat…go there, it’s a great laugh!

Comment by Scooter Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 12:15 pm
I’m also in the 14th–it’ll be Denny Hastert, but not because of any brilliance or intense loyalty. He is benign.

It also doesn’t hurt that his opponent Laesch is a total moron.

Agree with Bill, the theatrics begin after this election. Lauzen will be the most entertaining.

Comment by William Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 12:16 pm
â€¦one of their crack â€œpunditsâ€ wrote about how the biggest upset this campaign season will be Rahm losing his house seatâ€¦ Harold McMillian once asked what will influnce the future election and he replied Events, dear boy, events.

For better or worse, and at the moment I’m inclined to say worse, Fitzgerald is an event waiting to happen.

Who knows what could happen to people to close to HDO…. look what Fitz did to Scooter Libby… on trial with the crime not committed…

Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 1:08 pm
The comments about Rahm losing are great news for Rahm.

If you don’t win, they don’t hate you and Rahm sure does win.

In 2008 they are going to claim that Cong. Duckworth, Bean and Seals will all be upset.

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 1:20 pm
If Lauzen is picked to replace The Coach I will eat my voter ID card and my hat. That seat SHOULD be handed to Tom Cross on a silver platter, and Cross SHOULD accept it. Lauzen would be a poor choice.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 2:31 pm
Thanks for making my point Bill…about the “crack pundits” that is.

Bean wins, Duckworth loses…and hopefully Zinga goes away.

Comment by Scooter Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 2:45 pm
Sleep

Chris Lauzen will NOT be picked and Cross will not take it; he will give it to Schmitz. But Lauzen wins the primary after in a landslide!

Comment by RAI Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 3:06 pm
Facebook poll? Don’t make me laugh. All that involves is clicking on the words “Support Candidate X” by college students. I’m wondering how many of those “supporting” Charles also “support” Danny.

I’m still not sure that Facebook getting involved is all that great. At least they’re not favoring any one party that I can tell.

Comment by Anonish Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 3:14 pm
Don’t get me wrong, its a great stab at trying to get some positive press, but seriously man.

Comment by Anonish Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 3:17 pm
Hastert for sure. Next time bloodbath.

Comment by leigh Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 3:40 pm
Oberweis will replace Denny Hastert. He actually has a chance of winning in that District.

Comment by Frank Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 3:42 pm
Zinga will lose badly. Even though she had an opportunity to get things going once Evans stepped down, she has shown absolutely no momentum. She hasn’t given the voters any reason to vote for her, she just hopes enough people vote against Hare. The problem is, she is not well liked in most of the district. Mant voters dislike her from before she was a candidate, when she was a crappy tv anchor. For the people that think that last weeks remarls by Zinga helped her, you couldn’t be more wrong. There might be a few rural parts of the district where discrimination might buy a few votes, but for the most part it just makes Zinga look even worse to the many working class folks of the district. Everyone I have talked to has said that Zinga has a bad case of foot-in-mouth syndrome.

Comment by Robbie Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 3:48 pm
Oberweis will replace Denny Hastert. He actually has a chance of winning in that District.

After seeing the focus on immigration in the 6th, this has a chance… not what I’d want to see, but he could really run with it.

Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 4:07 pm
Seals over Kirk in a squeaker.

Comment by Way Northsider Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 4:54 pm
Tim Johnson, the “missing Congressman” will defeat his opponent, Dr. Whatsisname, but not by as much as he would like, prompting calls for his retirement, which will be ignored…

Comment by HoosierDaddy Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 4:55 pm
Everyone that you talk to at Drinking Liberally Robbie?

The district is 23 counties Robbie. Can you name 7 of them without looking at a map? Your partisinaship shines through in your analysis and it just makes you look foolish.

Zinga has a tough road because it is a gerrymandered district. From what is being talked about on the street is the Rock Island Party machine is losing steam and no one is working together. Go down to the Waffle House on 24th. It’s a pink building, you can’t miss it. Talk to the democrats down there at that working mans joint and get the real scoop on why Hare will be challenged with the thing that gives Zinga the edge. VOTER turnout. Hard R’s are excited to get to the polls. Hard D’s are disgruntled about Blago (60% downstate disapproval) and local Dem’s continuing to back-room pick their candidates. Read: Vosheer, Jacobs, Boland, and now Hare. If you never hold primaries you never engage the base Dem vote and get them excited to go to the polls when it counts. Nov 8th will be an interesting day in Rock Island.

Comment by 17th District Insider Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 5:24 pm
Looks like Capt Kirk will fall along with Roskam. Beans and hare win easily. Makes ya wonder how big the Dem majority in the US house will be

Comment by Reddbyrd Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 6:07 pm
Hare 63%; Zinga 37%

Zinga has a tough road because of more than the redistricting. Her toughest obstacle may just be herself as witnessed by her unthinking, pandering remarks.

I think its laughable with all the complaints about the very open process by which Hare was selected.

The RI County Republican Party has been selecting virtually all of their candidates for the last two decades by vote of their Central Committee with a lot less visibility than the way that Hare was selected.

How did Schwigen get on the ballot for Sheriff anyway?

Comment by RIDem Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 6:43 pm
Weller and Pavich may be an interesting race. Past experience says Weller will find a way to pull it off, but the whole Guatemalan thing is just plain wierd, he hasn’t cut a lot of ribbons in the district lately (which used to be his forte), and it’s not like he’s a Robert Byrd or James Eastland who is so entrenched as to be unbeatable. Pavich will try to tap into national incumbent resentment and make it local.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 7:14 pm
Unfortunately, Shimkus will win again in the 19th even though he has broke his term limit pledge. It will be closer than in the past though. My guess:

Shimkus 56%

Stover 44%

Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:29 pm
Tim Johnson will win & with his usual comfortable margin. “Missing” ???? Where do you get that “Hoosier Daddy”. He’s everwhere in his district & because he’s not “engaging in battle” with Dr. Jill or Gill or whatever doesn’t mean he ‘ain’t’ doing the congress thing. He’s being the “congressman” like he was the “state legislator” in full time mode & is why he will & consistently gets elected now going on what 35 years of public service.

Comment by annon. Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 8:37 pm
lahood by 30
bean by 8
roskam by 6
kirk by 10
Hare by 15

Comment by Lovie's Leather Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:18 pm
Jackson 93% if that low.

Comment by anon Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:27 pm
Kirk by 10 %.

Comment by Establishment Republican Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 9:55 pm
Hey SID, John Shimkus does a great job of representing the values of the 19th CD. He is pro-life, pro-gun, pro-religion and anti-taxes. You want to talk about term limits? When was the last time a Democrat even thought about pledging to serve a few terms? They never do! And if you can find me an example of one who has and one who has stuck to such a promise, I will buy you lunch the next time I’m down in Southern Illinois. Shimkus will win by at least 20%. Running pro-choice candidates is not a smart move by the Dems.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Sep 18, 06 @ 11:54 pm
Team Sleep:
You left one thing off your list: “Supports bloated federal budgets.”

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 6:18 am
Team Sleep

Another lame excuse for a broken promise. So, when Balgo lies I bet you’re as quick to defend him by saying he represents the values of Illinois. Give me a break. Shimkus is a lapdog for Bush and cant think on his own. He supports big oil, a failed policy in Iraq, and tax breaks for the richest among us. Thats definately not Southern Illinois values that Poshard and Simon would be proud of.

Comment by Southern Ilinois Democrat Tuesday, Sep 19, 06 @ 10:34 am
Dear Team Sleep. “Waterworth should give up and run for dog catcher..” The we should give up on democracy in IL-18. Steve is the most straight talking Democrat in the state. Read his web site at http://www.waterworthforcongress.com Does either party have anyone else in that district who is better? No, and LaHood is a disgrace.

Comment by tcbagwell Thursday, Sep 21, 06 @ 7:56 am