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Out with the old, in with the new

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Illinois

Democrat Rod Blagojevich was elected governor a dozen years ago on promises of a fresh start, tough reforms and change. After 26 years of Republican rule, the voters bought into the populist message.

In his re-election campaign, Blagojevich portrayed his Republican opponent, Judy Baar Topinka, as a longtime insider and trounced her by 10 points. The only thing that truly changed, however, was that the governor and the General Assembly constantly bickered, to the exclusion of progress. His impeachment was a relief.

Blagojevich, like his successor, Gov. Pat Quinn, didn’t come from the Democratic Party’s “governing wing.” They were both outsider rock-throwers. Quinn attempted to govern but didn’t do it well and eventually became identified as leader of the status quo. So the rock-thrower who never totally got his arms around the job was viewed by voters as being too much of an insider.

Out with the old rock-thrower, in with a new and improved rock-thrower: Bruce Rauner.

Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:09 am

Comments

Link does not appear to be working

Comment by Cassiopeia Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:23 am
Very well written. It makes sense in a way that there were no concrete plans by Rauner. He needs to understand the full picture and then move. Big cuts coming, but they won’t be political and vindictive. They will be thought out.

Comment by Walter Mitty Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:24 am
Cassiopeia, it’s working for me. Not sure what the problem is, if there is one.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:24 am
Link works. No issues. Good column.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:31 am
I disagreed with pretty much everything rauner espoused during his campaign. I think many others did also, but when it came to voting, it was even harder to think of quinn bumbling along to complete TEN years as governor.

So I am tentatively impressed, and ever so slightly hopeful, that Rauner is doing the real things required to get a good start as governor.

Comment by Langhorne Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:37 am
Allan Katz of the Northwest Indiana Times may find himself disappointed at the extent to which Bruce Rauner does not dismantle the socialist People’s Republic of Illinois.

Comment by Bill White Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:41 am
Rauner created a fictional character for the purposes of the campaign. Those who bought into it are bound to be disappointed.

He was never an outsider, he was a key player in the finance wing of the political status quo. He just decided to finance himself this time around.

Over the years, Rauner dropped millions on incumbents from both parties to help drum up public business for GTCR and make his fortune.

Anyone who saw a shake-em-up rock thrower there was willingly delusional.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:43 am
My take on Rauner was that he focused on whatever it took to get elected. Then, once he was elected, he will take the time to thoughtfully solve the problems that have been confounding our state for decades. I don’t think Rauner cares whether he is just a term governor or not. He realizes someone has to be willing to expose themselves to the slings and arrows of the public by making the tough decisions. He also knows few down in Springfield were willing or could afford to risk being willing to make the hard choices for our state. So he is prepared to be the “bad cop” while he lets others worry about being viewed as the “good cop”. He doesn’t need the job. He views the upcoming experience as “performance and results are all that really matter”. That is an alien concept in Illinois state government.
Speaking as a Republican who voted for him, I am like many other voters who are hoping that Bruce Rauner will prove to be the “Ronald Reagan of Winnetka”. Quinn was (fortunately for Rauner) such a weak candidate that many Democrats even threw up their hands and decided to take their chances with this unknown commodity called Bruce Rauner. Thank goodness for Rauner that Lisa Madigan chose to hand over the Governor’s Mansion to the Illinois Republican Party. She and she alone made the all important decision to give the gubernatorial election to the Illinois Republican Party.

Comment by Rowdy Yates Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:51 am
It’s good Rauner is learning how things relaly work. Now if he manages to learn how to do deals without being the one in complete control, he could end up a successful Governor.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:52 am
“Ronald Reagan of Winnetka?” For crying out loud, give the guy a break. He hasnt been sworn in yet. Maybe tamp down the expectations a wee bit.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:57 am
It seemed to me that the premise of the article, was that outsider governors throwing rocks have failed. Fair enough, I suppose, but in falling into failure they sure had help from the leadership of the General Assembly. Chicken and egg: did they jump into rock throwing or were they pushed?

Rauner presents a hand of cards that Madigan & Co. have not faced before. He is dead serious about changing Springfield and the direction of the state, starting with the state government. Unlike Scott Walker, he does not have a Republican legislature, so Wisconsin style barnburning will never work. He has to make deals, and he knows it. Conversely for the Speaker, ignoring Rauner and his enormous fund-raising potential will be to invite serious challenges at the next election. People in Illinois are finally getting fed up.

Rauner has the potential to be a pivotal Governor in the history of Illinois. Either way, he will not be an ignored, helpless rock-thrower.

Comment by Percival Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:58 am
===Rauner is attempting to understand the process of getting things done before he can address the crises Quinn is bequeathing to him.===

Yes.

Great column, especially clarifying, again, the relevance of Mike “Z” to this whole process.

If Rauner would have brought in a complete outsider with a background largely based on the business world or no working knowledge of how Illinois functions governmentally, I would have jumped all over that Crew. There is s huge significance to his COS decision that will serve Rauner well these first 6 months.

So far, the Jim Ardis selection is the only real ignorant move, unless you like unstable hot heads for a transition, and a lack of governmental “people” on the governmental transition subgroups, otherwise, this column clearly demonstrates where they are, how they “could” get there, and what happens if they don’t.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:59 am
To quote Tom from the other post - the reality is that “Illinois is not the overtaxed, big government mecca the Civic Committee and their mouth pieces at the Tribune like to portray”

If Bruce Rauner accepts that reality he can make positive changes. If he genuinely believes the Civic Committee and Chicago Tribune party line he will face a rocky four years.

Bruce Rauner praising Barack Obama on immigration reform gives me reason to be optimistic.

Comment by Bill White Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:11 am
===… hoping that Bruce Rauner will prove to be the “Ronald Reagan of Winnetka”===

This is called the “Honeymoon”, not the “purple haze of delusion”

Nicknames need time.

=== Conversely for the Speaker, ignoring Rauner and his enormous fund-raising potential will be to invite serious challenges at the next election. People in Illinois are finally getting fed up.===

If you see a Republican Governor getting actively involved in Democratic GA primaries as a good way, and a way to work with MJM or Cullerton, you may be a bit mistaken.

Remember, the Rauner PAC, as self-described, is a bi-partisan PAC designed for assistance in tought votes, which could also be used to take out, bi-partisanly, those who don’t vote as Rauner…requires.

The focus is on the Big Chair right now. It has to be.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:15 am
I agree with Rich that Rauner can’t both kick butt and improve the state. If Rauner is a deal-maker like Thompson, rather than a butt-kicker, then he won’t be able to keep his campaign promises. But he could become a successful governor. Word put it so well: == Rauner created a fictional character for the purposes of the campaign. Those who bought into it are bound to be disappointed. ==

Comment by anon Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:24 am
Rauner in one word: brilliant.

He knows that campaigning isn’t governing. The strategies for being successful in each are so often at odds with each other (especially in the wake of the 24/7 media) that it’s one of the main reasons our government is so disfunctional today.

Rauner doesn’t have to Shake Up Springfield. That’s what people want to hear, not what they really care about.

If he can make headway on pensions, the economy, and schools, people will be happy.

His current aura of cooperation will help him do that. Heck, he may even be able to sell it to the base that he’s “tamed” Madigan (facts not withstanding).

Comment by Political Animal Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:40 am
The dealmaker role might be familiar to Rauner, but there’s one big difference from his business experience — he cannot just walk away when he fails to make a “good” one.

Rauner didn’t show much of himself in the campaign. A lot of what he said to win the Primary sounded like political nonsense written by national PACs. What he did show in the General didn’t add up. We don’t know who he really is, or what he really stands for, but we can be hopeful so far.

Comment by walker Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:45 am
“If he can make headway on pensions, the economy, and schools, people will be happy.”

It’s pretty clear the only legal solution is to properly fund the pensions. The only way Rauner can succeed somewhat is to nibble around the edges to eliminate the bigger abuses of the system, such as banning the receipt of a state pension while employed by another government entity … but even that is questionable if not part of the State pension systems.

Rauner is going to have to walk back expectations on the pensions. Coming events aren’t going to help; I understand there was a recent retirement that set a new record and there are soon going to be a handful more of what most people would consider outlandish sized pensions.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:03 am
“It’s pretty clear that the only legal solution is to properly fund the pensions.”

Not so sure about that. Rauner’s defined contribution system could work, legally and politically, if moving into the personal pension system were a voluntary choice. The law would not be diminishing or impairing pensions if people voluntarily chose to move their accrued benefits into a 401k style account.

Then the only trick is convincing people that it’s worth if for them to do so.

Comment by Political Animal Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:50 pm
1. Hurray (again) for RNUG. The state owes the money on pensions, so find a way to pay it. Amen.

2. Watching “The Big Lebowski” this weekend I noticed for the first time a very strong resemblance between Bruce Rauner and the actor who plays the police chief in Malibu and tells the Dude to stay out of his beach community. Can’t find a screen grab on this just yet but others can weigh in.

Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:56 pm
If Rod Blagojevich had followed his father-in-law’s advice we would have just elected him to a new term. Rod became an outsider rock thrower by his own choosing.

Comment by gesquire Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:12 pm
===Rod became an outsider rock thrower by his own choosing. ===

Spoken like someone who never met him. That stuff was in his bones.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:25 pm
Good column, Rich.

I am optimistic.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:35 pm
It should be stated for the record that throwing rocks has always played pretty well with the Tribune crowd.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 3:04 pm
==“It’s pretty clear that the only legal solution is to properly fund the pensions.”

Not so sure about that. Rauner’s defined contribution system could work, legally and politically, if moving into the personal pension system were a voluntary choice. The law would not be diminishing or impairing pensions if people voluntarily chose to move their accrued benefits into a 401k style account.

Then the only trick is convincing people that it’s worth if for them to do so. ==

That last line is exactly the problem . If the state has to give an employee the full value of the defined benefit pension already earned, the switch will not save the state any money. Even worse, changing a current defined benefit plan to a defined contribution plan of equal value to the benefit already earned would require the state to contribute to the new plan the equivalent of 100% funding of the employee’s share of the current pension obligation. Since the state can’t see it’s way to complying with the ramp to get to full funding, how could anyone think we have the will to immediately fully fund more than a fraction of the pension rights already earned by current employees?

Comment by Anon. Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 3:13 pm
So who exactly are these nimrods who would voluntarily exit a constitutionally protected pension system for a “401K style account?”

Is there a list? Because if there are people who would buy that, I have all sorts of junk I’d like to sell them.

Ty and the Tribbies had their fun throwing tantrums and pretending they were grownups who understood actuarial tables, finance and the constitution, but maybe it’s time to pop in a Disney tape, give them a juice box and let the real adults deal with the actual “crisis,” such as it is.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 5:31 pm
A Gold star for our Wordslinger - he is right as always. No one in his right mind would agree to switch to a 401K when the Supremes has already told them their current pension plan is 100% protected by law. State employees and teachers are not stupid.

Comment by Mama Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 7:18 pm
If something is a constitutional right, can you voluntarily give it up? Can you barter it away? Could a union negotiate away your constitutional rights?

A constitutional right is just what it means. Unless you change the constitution civil servant pensions and pay and their benefits are theirs. It doesn’t matter if the current government claims it can afford to meet those rights. It doesn’t matter if the current governor is a businessman, a charlatan or a political hack.

Governor-Elect Rauner cannot ignore the state constitution he will swear an oath to protect next month. At this point of his transition it appears that he is discovering the current limits of his new job.

The only high bars of expectations out there are the ones he set up. He needs to ignore them and pretend they don’t matter. He will need to lower those expectations as he governs. Transparency is his new friend as he opens up Quinn’s administration. Rauner needs to let Illinoisans see the ghosts, the lies and the stink being found in the governors mansion. Bring in the cameras. Show the rot.

In doing this the Governor-Elect would be lowering those bars of expectations he set up for himself as he enjoyed the opportunity Quinn never got when he inherited the filth of his old running mate’s administration.

As his administration evolves, Governor Rauner can begin shifting priorities and losing transparency which would protect him from prying eyes finding that the new governor may have ideas of his own, but right now it is best for Rauner to be the hero who before us all is shown our immense impoverishment.

That’s how these campaign promises get prioritized back into fairy tale promises of government shake ups and easy found waste and fraud budget gems.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:20 pm