Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Minimum wage politics
Next Post: Reformers blast new FOIA bill
Posted in:
* The Illinois State Board of Elections has certified the November results…
So, Rauner holds onto his majority, Topinka is held to under 50 percent and significantly below her 52.6 percent from four years ago, and Frerichs wins by a mere 9,225 votes…
According to the data dating to 1900 reviewed by AP, the 0.261 percentage-point difference makes it a tighter campaign than any other except the 1982 battle for governor and the 1952 race for secretary of state.
* Meanwhile…
The board’s canvass showed first-term Democratic Rep. Kate Cloonen beating Republican challenger Glenn Nixon in the Kankakee area 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.
Freshman Democratic Rep. Mike Smiddy beat Republican Jim Wozniak in the Quad Cities region 50.5 percent to 49.6 percent.
And Deputy Majority Leader Frank Mautino won a 13th term in north-central Illinois over the GOP’s Jerry Lee Long, 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent.
Those three Democrats won by a grand total of 773 votes.
*** UPDATE *** Oops. Forgot one…
The sole Illinois Supreme Court justice who was on the ballot in last month’s election was sworn in for a second term this morning. Official results released last night by the Illinois State Board of Elections show just how close Supreme Court Justice Lloyd Karmeier was to losing his seat, after an election that saw hefty spending on both sides.
Never has a sitting member of Illinois’ high court lost a bid for retention, but Justice Lloyd Karmeier got close. He earned another ten years on the bench, with a margin of less than one percent (new state board of elections figures show that Karmeier got support from 60.77 percent of voters; he needed 60-percent approval to keep his spot).
Super, super close.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:54 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Minimum wage politics
Next Post: Reformers blast new FOIA bill
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
“Those three Democrats won by a grand total of 773 votes.”
And there’s this cycle’s lesson that every vote counts.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:57 am
I posted here on Election Day before the polls closed that Rauner would win by 150,000. I wasn’t far off.
Comment by VPlena Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:59 am
Geez! At times, democracy is a very ugly affair indeed! These final figures prove, once again, that even in Illinois, EVERY VOTE COUNTS!
Comment by Black Ivy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:00 pm
Really it’s Topinka’s numbers that most surprise me in retrospect. Sheila Simon did better than I thought she would.
Comment by ZC Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:12 pm
JBT better decide soon if she wants to retire or raise several million.
The sharks will be circling with a sub-50 result like that.
Comment by A. Nonymous Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:12 pm
An effective macro engineering of a GOTV carried Rauner over Quinn comfortably.
An effective precinct by precinct, block by block, micro GOTV carried the day in specific districts to keep the HDems over 71 votes in the Chamber.
Rauner’s GOTV was not designed fir Rauner to carry, but for Rauner to build margins for himself first, and if the districts fell, then they fell.
Macro plurality is not designed to bring micro results in closely contested districts. It doesn’t work that way. When really successful precinct captains “dump” everyone but one race to voters in a precinct, you get 3 House seats kept by the Dems.
As a case study to effective strategies both working in spite of the other side scoring victories in other types of races (statewide v. districts) it is a reminder that this idea that Rauner had no coattails is a ruse. It also a reminder how incredibly effective 50 or so captains in a district can be, when only having one goal, or one person they need to drag over the line.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:14 pm
Well, I predicted that Quinn would win. WRONG!
Furthermore, I am surprised that Rauner won by so much.
Comment by Federalist Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:16 pm
Rauner “crew” will be working hard to bring in those 3 seats and others in the 2016 election.
Comment by Apocalypse Now Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:17 pm
- Apocalypse Now -,
Remember, the Rauner PAC is there to support Republicans AND Democrats who make tough votes.
Both parties.
Whose to say those 3 don’t choose MJM but choose to be with Rauner, lol
I look forward to seeing which Republucans AND Democrats they help, and which Democrats AND Republicans Rauner “Mautinoes”, in both Primaries and the General.
Will be fun(ny).
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:24 pm
many lessons learned from that Simon loss.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:26 pm
More people voted in the 1982 election (3,673,707) than voted in the 2014 election (3,626,504). There is a message in there somewhere.
Comment by Rufus Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:29 pm
And that was with a lot of progressive ballot measures. Think what it would have been if those weren’t on the ballot and term limits were.
Comment by Cabildero Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:32 pm
- Apocalypse Now -
Presidential years and mid-terms are very different animals.
Comment by Bill White Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:33 pm
I know there’s more to it, but just looking at those charts, what it says to me is that third-party candidates can make a huge difference. As spoilers.
Comment by Newsclown Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:37 pm
“Hello Jim, this is Bruce. Remember when I told you, you had ONE job: to win ONE seat?”
“…”
Comment by Toure's Latte Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:38 pm
=== Rauner “crew” will be working hard to bring in those 3 seats and others in the 2016 election. ===
I suspect Republicans will be playing a great deal of defense in 2016, in the primary and in the general election.
30 House Republicans are about to vote to raise taxes.
Mautino and Cloonen seats will not even be in play in 2016.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:41 pm
- YDD -,
That will be the irony; The records that the H & SGOP will have to run on will be dictated by how many votes Cullerton and Madigan are going to require to get Rauner what he wants.
Is the compromise the autonomy lost by the ILGA GOP?
Plus, the Presidential politics of 2016 will play out just a smidge different with a native son not on the ballot…unless Hillary…lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:48 pm
The old adage, “in Illinois 4% is a landslide” continues to hold true
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:58 pm
Willy -
Honestly, it might not matter that much whether they even voted for it. And I would be inclined to advise GOP lawmakers “Might as well vote for it.”
There is a good chance GOP voters will be so angry at the party that they will take it out on GOP lawmakers in 2016, regardless of how they voted on taxes, since Rauner won’t be on the ballot.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 1:09 pm
- YDD -,
That only comes into a strategy if the polling shows Rauner himself is more toxic than the votes.
I don’t know that, December 2014, but I do know those votes, even in today’s lenses will be “toxic”, especially in a GOP Primary.
To taking out Rauner’s governing being on the voters mind to send a message, again, I look to the Dem Caucuses to know which is better route to success; Rauner or Policy.
By requiring GOP votes, Policy takes the early lead…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 1:17 pm
4% is a pretty good spread for Governor-elect Rauner. Not so much for JBT…
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 1:22 pm
It’s apparent that some hard-core conservative Republicans still cannot stomach JBT.
Comment by nikobey Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 1:32 pm
I agree with the comments on JBT.
Blago beat her for a reason. A lot of people don’t trust her. She was perceived (whether true or not) to be from the George Ryan mold. I suspect that a lot of people didn’t trust her back when she ran against Blago and still don’t.
Simon was a terrible candidate. JBT was just a bit better.
I sure hope Simon doesn’t get the wrong idea and decide to run again. She gets nominated only if nobody else runs and there is no way she wins any race.
Comment by Gooner Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 1:34 pm
It saddens me to see that the totals indicate that voter apathy, not suppression, seems to be gaining ground in Illinois. People are tired of government and politics and tuning out.
The Democrats launched an unprecedented effort to turn out votes with mailings, solicitations and the like, to drive up voter participation with negligible results.
Comment by Under Further Review Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:08 pm
JBT suffers not only from the George Ryan taint. Many loyal Republicans view her as a “bipartisan” wheeler dealer. Her cozy relationships with various Democratic elected officials has caused some of the distrust.
Comment by Under Further Review Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:11 pm
===Many loyal Republicans view her as a “bipartisan” wheeler dealer===
LOL
Wow, such a crime against humanity.
Here’s somebody who has gone 5 for six in statewide elections and she’s somehow evil.
What a crock.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:12 pm
===The old adage, “in Illinois 4% is a landslide” continues to hold true===
While closer than I ever thought, Comptroller Topinka won by a 5% spread, with all the Democratically pushed ballot initiatives, with Rauner-Quinn sucking all the oxygen out of everything campaign, and the dragging out of voters to help Rauner, not really knowing if that helps anyone, including Comptroller Topinka.
It was the jet wash of nearly $100 million spent on one race too.
The raw 50% clearing was the only thing “missed”?
Did Comptroller Topinka win? That may be the only thing that matters.
That’s what I thought.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:22 pm
It should be noted that the ballot question asking if there should be an additional 3% tax on income greater than one million dollars got almost 40,000 votes more that Mr. Runer recieved. I hope he takes that as a mandate from the people and works to get the constitution changed to allow that.
Comment by Say It Ain't So!! Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:34 pm
“The raw 50% clearing was the only thing “missed” but given all those uncontrolled factors, did Comptroller Topinka win? That may be the only thing that matters, given this unusual cycle”
Stupid phone, apologies.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:41 pm
UFR -
The current makeup of the General Assembly is titled heavily towards one party and it has been that way since President Jones’s clean sweep of 2006. Please explain to me how Republicans are supposed to pass any legislation in our fair state unless we work across the aisle. I think Governor-elect Rauner is already working on that. He must be a really terrible dude, then.
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 2:43 pm
@Team Sleep:
JBT is not a legislator and has not served in a legislative office since the early 1990s. As such, I don’t see your point.
The governor is in a much different position than the comptroller, so I acknowledge that Rauner will have to do some horse trading.
Comment by Under Further Review Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 3:01 pm
- URF -,
Yiu are saying that being bi-partisan, being seen as someone respected by both side of the aisle, that is a bad thing, overall, to voters?
Voters require partisanship?
Also, anything any Comptroller, Treasurer, Attorney General, and Secretary of State may need or want in a budget, is controlled, in part, by legislative action.
The Constitutionals need to work with everyone, like…everyone else.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 3:08 pm
I have a more simplified interpretation of all this
this is a big generalization; but overall these results look to me like people vote for individuals, who they want in office counts slightly more then what party they belong too. Don’t get me wrong, still a lot of party voting, but who you are still counts and can cross party lines.
Comment by Ghost Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 3:27 pm
Ghost, I totally agree based on my eastside Springfield precinct, which voted Democrat, except for Judy (52%).
Comment by Cheswick Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 3:41 pm
For those who are as obsessed with numbers and statistics as I am, I found that this year’s Treasurers race was almost as close as the 1954 race, separated by .27% or 8,942 votes. Although there are even closer races in the 1800s, separated by even slimmer margins (hundreds), it’s pretty hard to compare races before 1860ish to years after that.
Comment by LA Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 3:53 pm
Thanks once again to Tom Cross for acting with grace and alacrity, and not dragging this thing out.
Comment by walker Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 3:56 pm
It was an anti-incumbent year.
Jesse White lost only two counties in 2010, garnering 70%.
This year, I believe he lost 21 counties and received only 65%.
Independents leaning against incumbents is the climate that best explains the outcomes.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 4:12 pm
JBT is a township committeeman and a former state party chair. Some activists object to her because she has been seen as someone who is willing to undercut other Republican candidates when it suits her purposes.
This is not anything new. Other politicians have been criticized for doing the same thing in Leyden township and elsewhere. JBT has enjoyed a lengthy career in elected office and in appointed office after her unsuccessful gubernatorial run. It is not inaccurate to point out that she is not uniformly beloved among party loyalists.
I am not making any profound judgments here. I am simply stating a factually reality. The fact that Topinka is popular with blog commenters does not change the facts.
Comment by Under Further Review Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 5:50 pm
ufr, and, apparently, with more voters over a longer period of time than almost any Republican office holder in memory. There is that, you know.
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 6:07 pm
I think the over-the-top negativity of this year’s gubenatorial campaign confirmed in some people’s minds that change — ANY change — was what was needed. These “4 percenters” didn’t know who should be voted out in the JBT/Simon race, thus the lower than expected vote total for the incumbent.
My guess is that Rauner will need those guys he copied up to on the newspaper ed boards to continue pushing his narrative when nothing gets done on the key issues or he’s toast (and badly burned toast at that) in four years.
Comment by shockjock Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 6:18 pm
- URF -,
How exactly are are three, GHR, Len Small, and Comptroller Topinka the same in a bad way?
Care to elaborate, specifically?
What are you trying to say putting those three together?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 6:30 pm
JBT lost 5-6 counties. All in southern Illinois (except cook). All in Simon’s home turf.
She did well in Chicago - took 100,000 more votes from Cook.
The thing here is that she was in a down ballot race, and the downstate conservadems voted for their Simon name.
She thought her union support would carry her there - obviously it didn’t. Good thing she pulled 25% out of Chicago…
Comment by A modest proposal Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:08 pm