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* Over the weekend, two Democratic congresscritters gave strong indications that they’re gearing up to challenge US Sen. Mark Kirk in 2016, which is expected to be a Democratic year. Tribune…
Rep. Tammy Duckworth ended a political guessing game Monday by making it official that she is exploring a challenge to Sen. Mark Kirk in 2016.
Duckworth, a Democrat from Hoffman Estates, told the Tribune she is considering a bid against the Highland Park Republican, raising the potential of a high-dollar campaign between two military veterans known for their comebacks.
Kirk recovered from a major stroke in 2012.
Duckworth came back from losing her legs in the Iraq War in 2004 when the Black Hawk helicopter she was piloting was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade. Defeated in her first try for Congress in 2006, she captured a House seat in 2012.
* Carol Marin…
Could we talk about their divorce?
That divorce was almost two decades ago.
And this is not an election year. Bill Foster, a 59-year-old Democrat, just won his third term by a wide margin in November.
So why now?
Because Foster has begun weighing a run for U.S. Sen Mark Kirk’s seat in 2016. But even if he doesn’t, his next re-election race is always around the corner.
“Ever since Bill decided to go into politics,” said 63-year-old Ann Foster, “every single campaign season since 2008, there are a number of months when I am plagued by constant phone calls. Sometimes in the middle of the night. Dozens of them.”
Those callers, mostly reporters, ask about her 1996 divorce filing in which she requested he move out of the marital residence because “the Defendant has pushed, shoved, and caused physical abuse and emotional harm of the Plaintiff, thereby putting her in fear for not only herself but also for the parties (sic) minor children.’
Ann Foster’s signature is at the bottom.
That document, every election season, has been fodder for opposition blogs and anonymous robo calls asking voters if they knew Bill Foster was a “wife-abuser.”
Though Mrs. Foster’s divorce attorney Friday told me he remembers little about the case, he said he always makes sure clients know what they sign.
Mrs. Foster said she did not read it before signing and told the judge the allegation was absolutely not true, that there was never abuse of any kind. The judge apparently agreed because he allowed Bill Foster to remain in the house.
* And then it was Roll Call’s turn…
Rep. Cheri Bustos said she is not closing the door on running for Senate in Illinois in 2016, marking the third House Democrat to express some level of interest in one of the cycle’s top race targets.
“I’m focusing on my district, focusing on what we hope to accomplish in the coming term,” Bustos said in a Tuesday morning interview with CQ Roll Call in her Longworth office. “And like anything in politics, you don’t close the door to anything and you keep an open mind, and I think you’ve got to weigh what’s good for your district, what’s good for your state and what’s good on a personal level. So for right now, what I would tell you is that I guess that’s kind of the long and short of it: I don’t close the door on anything, but I’m squarely focused on the 17th Congressional District of Illinois.” […]
Bustos, who won re-election in her Quad Cities-based district last cycle by a 10-point margin, skirted the issue of whether Duckworth’s decision will impact her own decision on the race.
“Tammy’s my friend,” Bustos said. “She’s a good public servant, she’s in Congress for the right reasons, she wants to help people, she has a passion, especially on veterans issues, and I think she’s done a superb job in that area. And yes we have talked, we talk regularly, and again I think it’s one of those things where in time all of this will shake out, and she’s got a lot to consider as does Bill Foster, I know he’s considering this, and I think time will take care of however this ends up shaking out.”
* The Question: Which of those three would be the strongest candidate against Sen. Kirk, or would you prefer someone else to run? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 10:58 am
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I appreciate TD’s service to the country. But her most important attribute is frankly being partisan and a non entity. She won the first election because Joe Walsh was her opponent.. She really needs to stand out for her to even be a candidate. At least a serious one.
Comment by Walter Mitty Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:01 am
Everyone of them is expecting Hillary coat tails in Illinois.
Without those, no chance for any of them. Never underestimate the master politician.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:06 am
Duckworth’s got the biggest name and best story, so she’s in the lead by default. Foster can be beaten by someone from the left, though his story is pretty good too. Not sure how many around Chicago know who Bustos is, which may be an issue if the field doesn’t clear.
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:08 am
Duckworth because she’s been The Chosen One ever since Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC screwed over local DuPage County Democrats and foisted Tammy upon them to run against Peter Roskam, rather than allow Cegelis to run again.
Wonder if Cegelis would help her campaign?
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:08 am
I like Tammy, but I think she could be beaten by a Kwame Raoul.. Bill, stay in the House, Cheri, good prospect for the future, maybe to replace Sen. Durbin.
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:14 am
Bill Foster is a decent guy, respected scientist and entrepreneur. I just don’t see him bringing the energy to a state-wide race. Bustos will be forever haunted by walking back her promise to take a cut in pay if elected. Obviously the people of her district were willing to overlook that but her opponent was a seriously flawed retread and was determined to do whatever it took to lose the election. Duckworth’s tenure in Congress has been largely undistinguished. No major surprises, disappointments, or accomplishments. She’s got a great narrative (as does Mark Kirk) and the best chance to make it a competitive race on that basis alone. It’s also worth noting that she’s had a lot of inside help and that has to count for something.
Comment by pundent Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:18 am
I go back and forth between thinking that Tammy Duckworth or Lisa Madigan would be the strongest Democratic candidate. Neither is perfect but they’re in a tier by themselves and well ahead of everyone else.
Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:18 am
Duckworth has the least baggage of any of them, but I don’t know how well she’ll play throughout the state. She’s pretty much been a Dem leadership sheep wile in Congress, and they had to severely gerrymander a district to give her an easy path to Congress.
Unfortunately negative campaigning drives most elections these days, but I don’t know of any way you can go negative on her and not come off as a cruel jerk.
Would she be the first Asian American woman Senator? It seem that things like that make a difference to a lot of Illinois voters.
Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:21 am
=== but I don’t know of any way you can go negative on her and not come off as a cruel jerk. ===
Tell that to Peter Roskam. Remember “cut and run”? Man, was that ever tasteless.
Then again, that was a GOP district.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:23 am
I would like to ask a simple question to all the candidates who are aspiring to a new office.
Basically, what have you done in your current office that was so outstanding that you need a larger platform?
None of the candidates mentioned seem to have stood out out in the crowd in their current terms of office. Can we have someone who is more of a standout?
Comment by Plutocrat03 Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:24 am
Tons of talent in the state Senate. Raoul and Biss will be in line for a promotion pretty soon.
Comment by Mittuns Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:26 am
All will beat Kirk. This is assuming Kirk survives the primary, which is increasingly more unlikely.
Comment by Happy Joe Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:27 am
I’d rather see someone like Kwame Raoul come up from the state level. Frankly, Congress (particularly Dems in the House) hasn’t done much of anything in a while. I think most voters are pretty tired of the same old Congresscritters who tend to argue over things like whether their opponent took a pension and who loves veterans more. You may disagree with what the Illinois General Assembly has done recently, but at least they’ve done stuff.
Comment by Commander Norton Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:27 am
Bustos
I’ve met Foster and he’s not much of a ‘people person’. Good guy, but would have a hard time with retail politicing on a statewide scale.
Duckworth, while having a good military record got elected because as somebody else stated above was running in a Democratic crafted district against Joe Walsh.
Bustos’ big advantage–She’s not from Chicago. The area of her district is a must win if a Democrat is going to capture the Senate seat.
Comment by train111 Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:27 am
You could go negative on Tammy, she has a record now can always find a vote or two…
I think Foster is in period. He wasn’t the guy they wanted when he ran when the seat was created and managed to chase off everyone else more or less.
He doesn’t have the chat with Carol just to clear the air in general, it was IMHO a specific act to send a message to donors and others that he is going after his biggest issue head on.
Bill Foster at this point is IN IMHO…
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:28 am
Duckworth starts with the advantage in electability over the other two for many of the reasons stated above, but needs to show something in her current office rather than running on her military service and work on veterans’ issues forever.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:29 am
I made this comment in June of 2014…
Standing by it.
===This is not Kass-like, or a Tin Foil Hat premise based in who is hiding under my bed…
It’s been 6 years. Illinois is starting…starting to turn on all things Madigan. Raising money has never been an issue, and Lisa herself has stayed far enough away from her Dad, that even that statement as to why she was not running for governor seemed to be someone who was at odds with the Speaker, Michael J. Madigan.
Lisa Madigan for US Senate.
Gets her out of IL for a while, larger stage, more national contacts she, herself, will hone and cultivate.
If Durbin wins, those two in the Senate will be far better than the last Democrat that held the seat; Roland Burris.
Lisa would still have a strong “home base” figuratively and actually, and it will allow her to be an Illinois-minded US Senator, while someone minds the home front for Lisa.
No one, at her age, her ambition, her resume, her skill, plans to be Attorney General of Illinois … forever.
US Senate, 2016, Hillary Clinton 2016…
Yikes.===
As much a the General isn’t keen on legislating, getting out of IL for a while during the Rauner Administration might not be a bad idea.
Ruts. You are the only one who can get you out of your ruts.
Running a race of this visibility, possibly being a nominee with Hillary as the POTUS nominee..,
Just think out loud.
Voted “someone else”
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:31 am
Train: Bustos’ big advantage is that she’s pretty hot. Do not underestimate this when Chicagoans are introduced to her in this putative election.
Comment by Happy Joe Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:33 am
Train111
The statement about Foster on the stump almost gives him too much credit. It is not his strong point.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:37 am
Willy: Not sure about Lisa. She would have creamed Kirk in ‘10.
Comment by Happy Joe Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:37 am
Duckworth has the least baggage of any of them, but I don’t know how well she’ll play throughout the state. She’s pretty much been a Dem leadership sheep wile in Congress, and they had to severely gerrymander a district to give her an easy path to Congress.
Agreed
The gerrymandering and being made by the party bosses really turned me off. Plus she did not live in the district as it was previously drawn when she originally ran.
She never would have won without all of the sneaky insider politics.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:38 am
Quinn for Senate 2016
Comment by Murph Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:39 am
I said Duckworth…she’s the most electable of that lot, though I’ve been a little disappointed with her campaign skills in the past.
I will say that a crowded primary field of white and Asian Congress critters really opens things up for an African-American candidate like Kwame (who doesn’t really need a crowded field to have a shot,) or someone with statewide name recognition like –yikes– Pat Quinn.
Comment by RTC Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:42 am
==Would you prefer someone else to run?==
Preckwinkle-Would immediately cut into Kirk’s key to victory (suburban women), has at least some name recognition outside of cook, would be a perfect exclamation point on her legacy since Mayor and Governor opportunities are 4 years away, and age is a factor. Obviously has long ties to Obamas, and if pressed may feel duty to bring the seat back to Hyde Park. Clearly has an IOU from Emanuel and his extensive fundraising network.
Comment by Jimmy CrackCorn Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:44 am
Tammy has name recognition. She may be able to raise the money. And she’s a veteran, a disabled vet.
Personally I think we need more veterans in Congress. Too many Cheney clones.
Comment by Sir Reel Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:50 am
I also think Kirk and Durbin have a good working relationship. Durbin will support the party of course… But there is support..and SUPPORT.. Do you see any here that has Kirk shaking? Or making Durbin outspoken in support? I don’t…
Comment by Walter Mitty Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:50 am
Can’t believe anyone votes for Bustos in this. Her campaign was a “how not to” clinic.
Foster is a terrible campaigner and made Randy Hultgren look like Bruce Springsteen out there…and Randy isn’t a balloon drop campaigner.
Tammy is a very good campaigner, but it’s not hard to see that it’s very demanding on her to be out there. Running against Mark Kirk would negate that disadvantage. He’s got physical limitations on the stump as well.
I voted for Duckworth, but I think Lisa Madigan would waltz in if she ran. I just don’t think she will.
Kirk won’t be a pushover and he’ll have a lot of support from Repubs, Indy’s and some Dems. High profile support and plenty of dough.
This one could be fascinating. I myself am selfishly hoping for a bruising Dem primary. It would be nice to see all the fighting on the other side for a change.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:51 am
Duckworth has the best “story” to tell and it can be a great TV spot. However, on a personal side she does not have the charisma and does seem that bright when I’ve been in meetings.
Foster is bright but does not have the charisma either and can be short tempered and easy to irritate.
Bustos is bright and has more of a personality. She does have close ties to Durbin (along with Duckworth).
They all have pluses and minuses but I’m not sure that any of these would be the slam dunk choice.
Comment by 1776 Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:51 am
Lisa Madgan does not want to be US Senator, period. Not in 2010. Not in 2016. Not ever.
Comment by Nick Naylor Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:52 am
Hard to beat a wounded vet. Undercuts Kirk’s vet claims and sympathy vote from his stroke. Kirk has to survive from the Right so Tammy can stay moderate and still get the left.
Comment by D.P.Gumby Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:57 am
Manar, Frerichs, Raoul or Biss would all be stronger candidates in a Dem primary if they can raise some Federal dollars.
Comment by Joseph Heller's Iphone Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:58 am
== and they had to severely gerrymander a district to give [Duckworth] an easy path to Congress. ==
Quinn 2014 by CD:
8th: 43.07%
11th: 45.35%
17th: 42.54%
Statewide: 46.35%
Frerichs 2014 by CD:
8th: 44.38%
11th: 43.63%
17th: 45.32%
Statewide: 48.05%
None of these three Congresspeople had severely gerrymandered districts that gave them an easy path to Congress, all three districts are more Republican leaning than the state as a whole.
Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:58 am
PQ 2016 Slogan : “I know nothing, nothing about Medical Mariwhatta?” That’s Rauner’s thang.
Comment by Joseph Heller's Iphone Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:01 pm
Either Cheri or Duckworth would be formidable. Both have a lot going for them.
I give the edge to Cheri because of her solid Downstate cred; she’d be a rock star in the Chicago metro market.
A Foster/Kirk race, I think, could potentially rank as the most painfully boring race in Illinois history. Not enough heat between those two cats to melt a pat of butter.
The Club for Growth types got a lousy ROI last time on their primary challenges to GOP incumbents, but if they’re still in that business in 2016, you have to think Kirk is at the top of their list.
Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:01 pm
Again. Any Democrat will beat Kirk. Durbin will go all out for whomever the nominee is. You have to turn the guy around before you stab him in the back.
Comment by Happy Joe Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:07 pm
This should be Kwame Raoul’s time. He does everything asked, ton of energy, can work the aisles, is an attractive speaker and public presence that Duckworth and Foster are not. Kwame gets out and nails down the Chicago vote that eluded Alexi last time. Best part, he’s young enough to hold the seat for decades if needed.
Anyone else, get used to saying Senator Kirk for another six years. He has the track record of being tough to beat.
Comment by Toure's Latte Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:20 pm
I think Manar could beat Kirk. I just don’t know if Manar makes it through the primary. Manar is very friendly with Durbin who might help him raise money but not if Duckworth runs. I think Cullerton would help Manar raise money in Chicago but not if Raoul runs. I thought Manar would run for sure until the Comptroller race popped up. Now maybe he goes after that.
I’ve seen Duckworth on the stump. Until recently she was lackluster to say the least but last time I saw her she clearly stepped up her game. Can she sustain that through a long brutal campaign. And will she have what it takes to make all the chicken dinners in downstate for months on end?
Don’t discount Bustos especially if HC is running. She has downstate cred and roots and she will be able to raise dough in Chicago.
No way Foster wins a primary statewide.
Comment by Call Me Crazy Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:24 pm
Bruce will be all in for Kirk, big time. He owes him and hiring his staff was just a start.
Democrats can’t afford a bloody primary. They need to get behind someone early with a blank check. I’m guessing Duckworth has the edge with the support of Obama’s and Clinton’s and Durbin (Washington).
Comment by Casual Observer Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:26 pm
===I think Manar could beat Kirk===
I dunno. That education funding reform bill of his will go over like a lead balloon in the suburbs. Also, Kirk could run to his left on the gun issue.
I think Manar is a great guy and a super legislator, but he may have some problems statewide.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:30 pm
I think the DNC will have some input in slating and/or supporting the US Senate candidate. They will want to strengthen turnout for the national ticket. Remember, this is a Democrat state with a Republican governor.
If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, another progressive woman at the top of the ticket adds little. Rule out TD. Rule out LM. An urban male candidate, Kwame Raoul, will add balance and appeal to the D base.
If Hillary is not the nominee, forget the above.
Comment by Anon III Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:31 pm
The only reason Rahmner would let Kirk be the republican nominee would be to hang him out to dry.
Comment by William J Kelly Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:33 pm
Anon, seriously, the DNC? Who are they?
If there is a bigfoot, and I’m not sure that there is, it’s Durbin.
Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:36 pm
Tammy Duckworth is a subsidiary of Dick Durbin and everyone knows it. What happens when Kirk and Rauner call Durbin and ask him to talk Duckworth out of running? There’s absolutely no way she can win without Durbin’s support. This fact will hurt her fundraising unless Durbin is completely “all in” to use his mini-me to take out his buddy Mark Kirk.
Comment by Joseph Heller's Iphone Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:37 pm
===Remember, this is a Democrat state…===
Illinois has one of each party in the US Senate, and the split in the US House is 10-8 leaning to the Democrats.
There is a Republican governor, Republican Comptroller, and of the 5 statewide officeholders (LG runs with the Governor), that’s 2 Republicans, 3 Democrats…
The GA here has issues beyond “blue” or “red” or a map…
“Democrat” state? Yikes.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:39 pm
The first paragraph of this subject states that 2016 is expected to be a Democratic year. That is a matter of opinion. I expect it to be a repubican year. The last five times that a democrat president didn’t run for re-election (2000, 1968, 1952, 1920, and 1896), a Republican won. That will probably happen in 2016, especially since Republicans did so well in 2014.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:41 pm
Cheri Bustos and Bill Foster voted with with the House Republicans on Jan. 7 to gut Dodd-Frank.
So did Dan Lipinski (not a surprise, him), Mike Quigley and Bobby Rush, though Rush reversed himself on the subsequent Jan. 14 vote.
If Bustos and Foster think they can win a Democratic primary by voting with the House Republicans, well, good luck to them. Neither of them will have my vote.
Comment by Northsider Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:42 pm
===a democrat president didn’t run for re-election (2000===
I was referring to Illinois, not nationally. This is a state politics blog.
Also, Gore thumped Bush here in 2000, 55-43.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:46 pm
I think Bustos, Foster and Duckworth are nuts if they give up their hard-won House seats to lose to Mark Kirk. Not only will each of these three lose to Kirk, but the Republicans will have a great shot at picking up the House seat of whoever runs for the Senate.
Duckworth will be a new mom, and hasn’t always been the hardest worker on the campaign trail in prior runs. Bill Foster is charismatically challenged. Cheri Bustos is basically unknown in the Chicago area and will need to spend a couple of million to build name id. It’s a tough, tough road for any of them.
In short, none of these three would be the Democratic Party’s best chance of beating Kirk, who is clearly beatable, but not by just anybody.
Lisa Madigan would probably have the best chance of winning. Chris Kennedy would be a strong candidate. I’m not sure Raoul or Biss are ready yet, but there is still time.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:48 pm
I think the Dems can win it, but I don’t think any of these three, at this point, is particularly outstanding. Someone who can give a good speech would blow any of them out of the running. If no such person shows up, I would think Bustos has the best shot; her district has more geographic diversity and is better prep for running state-wide.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:48 pm
…and BTW, Gore did better here than Clinton 92 and Clinton 96.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:48 pm
===hasn’t always been the hardest worker on the campaign trail in prior runs===
Dude.
During her first run, she had to take frequent breaks to receive IV antibiotic treatments. Do you know what she did while getting those treatments? She made fundraising calls. One tough woman.
I don’t underestimate Kirk, who’s also shown his mettle, but don’t underestimate Duckworth.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 12:51 pm
Right now, Duckworth seems the best choice of the three, but someone else could pop up by next year. I don’t believe Lisa Madigan will run for Senate.
Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:00 pm
===Dude.===
I’m a big fan of hers Rich. I’d just rather she (and her two colleagues) stay in the House for 10-12 more terms so Illinois can finally rebuild some of the seniority that we used to have in Congress. I’d just hate to see her throw it all away and I really really want Kirk to lose.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:00 pm
Preckwinkle can take it all. In a crowded field she takes Cook for the win. Presidential year so bigger turnout in Cook. She would be a national news story in a year the Democratics are trying to take back tge Senate. The money will flow her way from all corners of the Democratic party.
Comment by Chunga's Revenge Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:06 pm
Tammy will be the strongest candidate because of her gender, her service record, and more importantly Tammy will get the always important sympathy vote over Bustos and Foster. Although Mark Kirk is the incumbent and I am a Republican, I am afraid that any one of these three Democrats will be more than Mark Kirk will be able to beat (even if it weren’t a Presidential election year).
I am hoping that a decent GOP candidate will challenge Kirk in the Primary or otherwise that seat is going to be a Democratic seat.
Comment by Rowdy Yates Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:06 pm
I voted Duckworth out of these three. If the opponent is Kirk, Tammy undercuts the veteran high ground Kirk has staked out. Plus, I don’t think she’d have put herself out there unless Durbin had given her the okay. He has always been a huge Duckworth supporter, and I don’t see her going forward without his blessing. On the practical side, the Senate has to be appealing for her with a youngster, because the campaigning and fundraising demands are more spread out with a six-year term. Right now, she campaigns constantly.
Comment by Archiesmom Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:08 pm
===I am hoping that a decent GOP candidate will challenge Kirk in the Primary or otherwise that seat is going to be a Democratic seat.===
Define “decent.”
What are you gonna do, run somebody to his left in a GOP primary? Does that person even exist? You’re gonna run to his right and hope to win it all during an almost a sure-thing Democratic year?
Please.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:15 pm
Someone else. There’s many better candidates out there. Don Harmon, Kwame Raoul, Jorge Ramirez, John Bradley, Dan Lipinksi to start with.
Comment by chi Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:19 pm
===Dan Lipinksi===
Is he a Democrat?
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:20 pm
===47th Ward - Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:00 pm:
===Dude.===
I’m a big fan of hers Rich. I’d just rather she (and her two colleagues) stay in the House for 10-12 more terms so Illinois can finally rebuild some of the seniority that we used to have in Congress. I’d just hate to see her throw it all away and I really really want Kirk to lose.===
47, I agree with nearly all you said except the exception pointed out by the bearded one.
I like her, admire her, and during the Roskam campaign got a good amount of time to spend with her between trains. Both campaigns were trampling on one another in swing areas/precincts.
Until then, she really never had a job outside of the important Guard Duty. She’d never had employment experience and it showed. She was however, sweet, bubbly, kind and obviously pretty intelligent.
I root for her in life, but not in politics. I did learn and appreciate just how much campaigning took out of her physically. It was tough doing everything from getting in and out of cars, to standing for the Pledge or Anthem, to moving from one place to the next. With a new baby, it may be even harder.
No doubt though, her toughness is right there with anyone I’ve ever met.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:20 pm
“Which of those three would be the strongest candidate against Sen. Kirk”
Duckworth. She negates Kirk’s greatest strengths and could take full advantage of Hillary’s coattails.
Duckworth’s previous campaigns were largely driven by the party leadership in D.C. and I don’t see any evidence of a new local campaign organization. (For instance, one might think that there would be natural support from groups focused on women’s issues, but the big-footing in the primary campaign against Cegelis left a lot of lingering hard feelings in that camp.)
For that reason, I don’t think she’d have even gotten into the race unless the party apparatus in D.C. (and it’s various fund-raising arms) is solidly lined-up behind her at the outset.
So I wouldn’t be surprised if the other two soon found that their fund-raising had dried up — and they quietly bowed out of the race.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM (@MisterJayEm) Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:21 pm
Chi, that’s some list. Really?
Definitely a first time I’ve ever seen Dan Lipimski mentioned for statewide office.
Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:24 pm
I don’t think Bustos is a strong campaigner, I don’t think there’s anything to differentiate Foster from Kirk for the average voter, and while I respect Duckworth’s service I think any “sympathy” vote described above is offset by a “sympathy” vote Kirk would receive.
I will concede that Lipinski is not the strongest of the five I mentioned, and in fact the weakest.
Comment by chi Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:29 pm
I would like to see a statewide poll to see what their name recognition is. I’m guessing that outside of their respective districts it is very low. Lisa M. Would certainly have the early advantage in this area.
Comment by Joe Blow Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:32 pm
47th Ward @ 1:20 p.m.: No.
Comment by Northsider Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:37 pm
====but the big-footing in the primary campaign against Cegelis left a lot of lingering hard feelings in that camp.=====
That remains true to this day. In a mild rerun, they did the same to Raja, which was a reminder that this was not a local organizational seat. When Tammy runs, it’s the Nationals and some local interns. That’s been more than enough. If she goes statewide, expect a lot more Nationals.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:45 pm
I voted for Bustos although I think she should hold off for now. She’s popular in Western Illinois (her home district) and has roots in Springfield and can push the Gene Callahan card down there. She would also probably get Durbins endorsement.
A big problem is that Bustos and Kirk are not very different. EX: her recent vote in favor of keystone.
I see her holding off and either running for Durbins seat in 2020 if he retires or I could also see Durbin retiring early and a potential Bustos appointment?
Comment by NorthbyNorthWest Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:54 pm
I’d say there’s a very real chance Mark Kirk will face a bruising primary battle.
He’s going to be a vulnerable target for Dems if he ends up surviving until Nov. 2016.
Frankly, the sooner he is gone, the better.
John
Comment by John Boch Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 1:55 pm
This Democrat will be voting for Kirk if these are my alternative choices.
Comment by Niles Township Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:03 pm
Challenging Kirk in the primary is unrealistic considering how well Kirk has been campaigning within the GOP establishment. While no one is going to stop a fringe candidate(s) from challenging him, it seems that Kirk has ensured that his important supporters are already supporting his reelection.
I can’t see how a primary challenger is going to succeed at this point.
A Democratic primary could hurt the winner as well as help. Any campaign is a risk. Fringe candidates can show up among the serious as well and do some possible damage.
It isn’t just the Prairie Whigs with a Walsh, an Adam Whatshisname, or a Erica Harold. There is a Roland Burris, a Mel Reynolds, a Jesse Jackson Jr. and a couple of ex-governors that might see an opening for a last hurrah.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:05 pm
Who would be most likely to win the primary:
1. L. Madigan (she could clear the field)
2. Preckwinkle - but does she want it?
3. Duckworth (biography/money)
4. Bustos
5. Raoul
6. Foster
There aren’t a ton of Democratic primary voters in the 8th/11th/17th CDs - that will hurt those candidates. I always thought Bustos was waiting for Durbin to retire, but if some reason the 3 people above her don’t run, I could see her beating Foster and/or Raoul. I’ve seen no evidence that Preckwinkle is interested, but if she is, she would be favored against anyone but Lisa, based on Cook County alone.
And any one of them would be at least even-money against Kirk in the general. Duckworth probably the strongest based on biography, even stronger than Lisa.
Comment by 60611 Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:14 pm
VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:05 pm:
Challenging Kirk in the primary is unrealistic considering how well Kirk has been campaigning within the GOP establishment. While no one is going to stop a fringe candidate(s) from challenging him, it seems that Kirk has ensured that his important supporters are already supporting his reelection.
You have made solid points but it is a long time before the next primary and I will be surprised if a strong challenger does not appear. The fact that Kirk is so entrenched among the Republican elites could easily backfire on him. But I agree, so far no one has appeared.
Comment by Federalist Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:19 pm
- The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:58 am:
It was gerrymandered for her.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:23 pm
@ wordslinger: “A Foster/Kirk race, I think, could potentially rank as the most painfully boring race in Illinois history. ”
Y’know, after the gubernatorial trash-fest, I wouldn’t mind boring.
Comment by Joan P. Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:25 pm
I went with Bustos. I’m not convinced that Duckworth is effective on the campaign trail.
I would like to see Kwame Raoul make that race but there is no indication that he’s interested.
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:27 pm
[This commenter has been banned for life.]
Comment by The Truth Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:29 pm
I think it’s telling that Kwame Raoul is mentioned by several different commentators even though he is not publicly flirting with the race. He’s an excellent legislator. And his political profile fits both the Democratic primary and the general election well (substantive, diligent and a long record of accomplishment, both for hard-core progressive causes like abolition of the death penalty and GOP-friendly issues like workers compensation reform and McCormick Place reforms).
The US House members are accomplished people, but they don’t have the same opportunity in DC under Speaker Boehner to create a legislative record of accomplishment.
If Senator Raoul runs, he wins.
Comment by Dan Johnson Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:31 pm
== Anonymous - Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:23 pm:
- The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 11:58 am:
It was gerrymandered for her.===
This is absolutely true. And it was easy using the results of her election with Roskam.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 2:35 pm
Duckworth. She is Rahm and Durbin’s girl. Kwame maybe the guy but I think that he wouldn’t be willing to give up his seat to run for this and would more than likely take a run statewide in ‘18.
I know it’s not really Bustos’ fault but while i may not have hurt her in her district but I am sure running what her staffer said about the african american constituency on “Black Radio” in Chicago would cook her.
Comment by Come on man! Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 3:02 pm
A strong challenger will not appear if Senator Kirk begins showing voters how he has earned their support. Right now, he hasn’t done that so he appears vulnerable. If he does not demonstrate credible reasons for his reelection, he will have not only a problem in the primary, but in the general as well.
Republicans want to keep the seat and 2014 has proven that the GOP is able to keep winning incumbents on the ballot, even if they are not heartedly endorsed by all within their party.
I would much rather have Kirk face Duckworth than any other possible GOP nominee I can think of. He can compete with her on life story and on military service as well. Then he can tell voters why they should vote for him again. That should be an easy sell.
I believe GOP primary voters want to keep a winner.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 3:10 pm
Duckworth neutralizes Kirk’s military service. You have on one hand a bonafide combat veteran, who paid a terrible price for their country, versus someone who has to fictionalize their service because they want to sound good. A public servant versus a cynical, narcissistic hack.
While Foster isn’t the greatest retail politician, he has grown leaps and bounds since his first runs.
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 3:33 pm
I’ve thought for some time that Kirk would be vulnerable largely because of his inability to campaign as vigorously as in the past due to his health challenges. However, he has stayed remarkably relevant and visible in the senate since his return. His foreign policy chops and expertise have been especially at the forefront recently such as in his partnership to address sanctions (Kirk-Menendez Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2015) . I expect foreign policy– controlling Iran and NoKo, neutralizing ISIS/ Boko Haram/ Al Quaeda radicals, etc.–to be a huge issue on voters’ minds over the next several years, and certainly Kirk will run on this. As I look at the Dem list we were given to vote on here today, as well considering several others who were suggested, (Lisa, Kwame, Toni) I do not see anyone that has the stature or background in international affairs and foreign policy that would be necessary to impress and reassure voters.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 3:35 pm
Whoever Durbin supports in the primary is who will win the D primary. We’ve seen for years how he loves to be a kingmaker although his track record of backing the winner isn’t exactly stellar. But this is an office he knows how to run for and win. Plus, he will help the D money flow from donors in Chicago and across the country for the horse he backs.
We’ve seen how supportive he’s been of TD, but he’s also been very supportive of CB to the point that he forced Koehler out of the race to clear the primary field for Cheri.
The interesting thing will be if both Congresswomen decide they’re all in or if Raoul says he’s all in. Then Durbin is in a bind and may decide to sit the primary out. If that occurs, I’d think Raoul would benefit greatly from Cullerton’s donor network in Chicago.
And no way does Durbin sit it out to help Kirk somehow. Durbin wants back in Senate leadership and winning Kirk’s seat is a must for that to occur.
Comment by Livin' the Life Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 4:02 pm
Arizona Bob
==Would she be the first Asian American woman Senator? It seem that things like that make a difference to a lot of Illinois voters==
She wouldn’t Mazie Hirono of Hawaii is.
Even with a Democratic year I don’t see someone beating Kirk. Too good of a story, he is moderate and works hard.
RWP
Comment by RWP Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 4:52 pm
Random thoughts on the above posts:
- Durbin is every bit as close to Bustos as he is to Duckworth.
- The Sun-Times, guided by D.C.-based Lynn Sweet, seems to have set the D.C.-centric narrative that a Congressperson will be the Dem nominee. That’s a bit presumptuous.
- As mentioned, the state senate is populated with potential contenders…Kwame, would be the odds on favorite in my book; Biss is a great fundraiser; Steans could self-finance, though I doubt she’s interested. Manar? Loaded with potential, but Rich is right about guns hurting him (just ask Toi.)
- Lisa Madigan is probably not interested, but is too damaged by her father anyway.
- Tom Dart, also probably not interested, has higher name recognition in the Chicago media market than the 3 congresscritters combined.
- Liberals can mock Lipinski all they want, but he’s in step with that district and was able to take on lots of GOP voters in the remap, which helped the Dems in Foster’s district a ton. He also runs one of the best constituent service operations in the state.
Comment by Rick Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 5:11 pm
I respect and admire Mrs. Duckworth-Bowlsbey for her Army service, but she hasn’t accomplished anything that suggests she is ready for the Senate. As a fellow Veteran, I appreciate her efforts on our behalf, but I’m unaware of any legislative accomplishments that suggest she is ready for a Senate run, or conversely in the event she were to be elected, that she would be successful in this capacity. I think Tammy needs a couple of more terms as a Rep with some legislative accomplishments to show for her work; maybe then, but not now.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jan 21, 15 @ 5:53 pm
Speaking of 2016….Manar for Comptroller?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 5:13 am
Duckworth probably has the best shot considering she has plenty of money and a story of trials and tribulations that’ll hit the voters right in the feels. Unfortunately for her, or any challenger for that matter, Kirk also has a story of hardship and he’s not a conservative punching bag. Even in a presidential year with a strong Dem at the top of the ticket, Kirk will be hard to beat.
Comment by White Denim Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 8:58 am