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Studies: First negative population growth since 1988

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Illinois logged a record exodus in 2014, sustaining a net loss of 95,000 people to other states, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. And two of North America’s largest moving companies revealed data showing that Illinois’ rate of outbound traffic spiked in 2014, confirming the Census Bureau’s numbers.

As a result of massive out-migration, Illinois’ population shrank by 10,000 people from July 2013-July 2014. This means that more people fled Illinois than were born in Illinois in 2014. The state’s population had not decreased since 1988. […]

Only New York lost more people to net migration, as the two states once again battled it out to be the nation’s largest exporter of talent. Meanwhile, states such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, Colorado and the Carolinas happily herded more of the nation’s talent pool across their borders.

* Tribune…

When demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution analyzed the annual Census Bureau estimates, two facts jumped out at him. First, Florida overtook New York to become the third-most-populous state (after California and Texas). And second, Illinois is badly leaking people.

“The faucet is starting to turn up in terms of moving to the Sun Belt,” Frey tells us. “Obviously states in the Northeast and Midwest, like Illinois, are going to be part of that surge.” But still: “I was quite surprised by the Illinois out-migration and that there is negative growth.” […]

Three moving companies that look at migration patterns all note the high number of Illinois expats in new reports. Each company puts Illinois in the top three states for outbound shipments; Allied Van Lines ranks Illinois No. 1 with 1,372 net outbound moves. While these are limited figures reflecting the movement of entire households, demographers take them seriously as a snapshot of behavior by more affluent Americans.

The three states that attract the most Illinois residents are Texas, Florida and California, according to the Illinois Policy Institute, citing 2010 tax records, the most recent available. The moving companies see a lot of people heading for Oregon and North Carolina.

* Charting the state’s net loss history…

* And then there’s this from the Illinois Review…

In a chart recently published by the Illinois Department of Public Health, the agency showed that in 1990, 196,000 babies were born in Illinois. That proved to be the high mark for Illinois in the past 24 years.

For seven years, the state’s live birth numbers fell consistently until 1997, when it hit 180,000. The numbers huddled around that mark for eleven years, and then when the 2008 recession hit, not only did people leave Illinois seeking jobs, they took their babies and future babies with them. Live births in Illinois began to fall precipituously.

Illinois live births quickly fell from 180,000 in 2007 to just over 170,000 in 2009 and two years later, by another 10,000 to 160,000.

The chart…

* Related…

* Chicago area’s economic recovery lags other urban areas, study finds

* CPS school closings provided only modest gains to students

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:04 pm

Comments

People heading south and west. What a surprise. After last winter I’d like to do that too.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:10 pm
How do the births compare to national trends? Aren’t we in the middle period of the Boomers no longer having kids and Millennials not really starting to have kids?

(If 1990 was the high water mark, Boomers were between, what, 28-52 or so? And Millennials are pretty much between 20-34, no?)

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:11 pm
Also the drop in births pretty much coincides with the Recession, and previous studies have concluded that people stop having kids in bad economic times. So might be a perfect storm of a bad economy and demographics since 2007.

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:13 pm
this is a function of jobs (manufacturing jobs, largely concentrated in the north and midwest, have been declining) and age. older populations retire to the sunbelt so they don’t have to shovel snow anymore. go figure. there is very little that governments can do about this, except to enact policies that spur new economic growth (like solid education, especially among the poorer of its citizens) and lead to predictable, stable governance…

Comment by bored now Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:19 pm
According to 2013 data from the Census Bureau, the leaders in out-migrations were actually:

1. Indiana
2. Texas
3. Missouri
4. Wisconsin

However, that is a misleading figure, because that is not a NET migration figure.

I can’t explain why IPI is relying on 2010 data or anyone really acts like people moving is news when the Census Bureau publishes this stuff every year.

Comment by Juvenal Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:20 pm
I hate this weather. As soon as I can retire, I am moving too. It’s not the government, the taxes, or the blah blah blah. It’s the weather.

Comment by The Death Star Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:22 pm
I am so cold….

Comment by lil enchilada Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:24 pm
Now that we have a Republican governor, this out migration will either slow down, or else IR and IPI will stop talking about it since they won’t be able to blame it solely on the Des.

Comment by anon Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:29 pm
It ain’t just the weather, folks. Wake up a little.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:31 pm
Would love to see the age demographics of the outbounds….Is the big move due to the baby boomers retiring and seeking warmer climates or is this due to workers leaving?

Comment by illilnifan Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:32 pm
If you google “A Population Slowdown for Small Town America,” you’ll find a Brooking Institution report with a map that shows continuing population declines among non oil-boom rural counties across the the country.

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:33 pm
Do you know, how old are the people who are moving? States like Florida and Arizona seem to attract lots of senior citizens/retirees. I wouldn’t call them “talent pool” since they aren’t working. Any more info on the ages?

Comment by Anon Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:34 pm
If Illinois starts taxing retirement income, watch this figure grow even larger!

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:36 pm
-People heading south and west. What a surprise. After last winter I’d like to do that too.-

…but out of the states losing people, we’re the worst. And why is a state like Minnesota still growing nicely? I’m tired of hearing the excuse that people are moving bc it is cold. We have assets states like Minnesota and Indiana do not. Yet they are keeping their population. It ain’t just the weather folks…

Comment by Stan Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:42 pm
Yes, it’d make for much more interesting analysis if we knew the ages of those moving. It would explain the problem facing our state.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:43 pm
I do not think the birth number is entirely accurate. In Southeastern Illinois, the majority of the babies are born in Indiana. A lot of the counties do not have hospitals that will deliver babies in Illinois. Evansville, IN has some of the best hospitals and are less then an hour away. I also know the situation is similar in Southern Illinois and the counties around St. Louis. A lot of those babies, born to Illinois parents, are born in KY and MO. With all that being said, I know Illinois is still losing people at a rapid rate and I think it’s the economy.

Comment by SE Illinois Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:45 pm
It used to be the people in crime-ridden Chicago and Cook County were migrating down into the collar counties like Will and Kane. But then someone informed me on Capitol Fax that I was wrong and that for the past couple years living in Chicago was actually desirable and Chicago was actually growing in it’s population. I agree with Rich that it isn’t about the weather. The people that I know that left Illinois told me that they just finally threw in the towel because of where Quinn and Madigan were steering the state. It was more about jobs, taxes, education, and utter frustration with our state government.

Comment by Rowdy Yates Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:46 pm
Everyone I know that moved out of state did it looking for a better climate. Most of them are making less in the sunbelt too.

Comment by foster brooks Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:47 pm
In the past three years, three kids on my block graduated from college. They all landed jobs in other parts of the US (Upper Peninsula, MI, Boston, MA, Seattle WA). Not exactly weather related moves but they all said the same thing: they all tried to find decent jobs and opportunities in Illinois and could not. And my block is in Lake Forest, IL.

Besides the actual numbers moving out of Illinois, and our aging demographics, how do we measure the brain drain that is leaving. It is the brain drain that bothers me the most. Any studies on where Illinois college graduates (defined as Illinois residents) end up post graduation?

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:52 pm
=== I do not think the birth number is entirely accurate. In Southeastern Illinois, the majority of the babies are born in Indiana. ===

The numbers are accurate. The states reconcile residents of a state that are born in another.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 1:53 pm
Louis, mass migration off your block? Give it a think…..

I’m sure if you wander down south a little bit to the corporate corridor on Lake Cook Road you might find three among the thousands of young people working there who moved from out of state for the opportunity.

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:04 pm
Yeah, we’re moving away from IL because there aren’t enough jobs, the public schools are pretty bad, and we pay way too high of taxes.

Comment by Em Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:04 pm
I wonder what amount of the out-migration are young people from the less than desirable places to live in Illinois (dieing small towns and cities, unlivable/walkable suburbs) leaving… I have read many times that for millennials living in a place that reflects their values and interest in livable sustainability minded places is just as important as a good job. As part of this I wonder what impact the death of rural America factors in… Federal Agriculture policy has encouraged and subsidized the growth in farm size which has lead to less farm jobs and rural services jobs leading to a slow decay of rural main streets.

Comment by wak Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:04 pm
Could this have something to do with the oil/gas boom that bypassed Illinois, either because it has little to develop and/or local hostility to fracking and related technologies? If so, then some of these flows might reverse in 2015-16, now that oil prices have collapsed.

Comment by Andy S. Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:06 pm
These numbers raise concern. But there’s a lot I would like to know:

What are the ages of the people who are moving?

What counties are they leaving?

How do the percentages of people leaving Illinois compare with the percentages of people leaving other northern states?

How do the birth numbers compare with other states? (And, responding to SE Illinois, is there a large discrepancy between the birth numbers reported by hospitals and census data?)

Also, let’s note that the U.S. Census says Illinois’ population increase by 0.4 percent from 2010 to 2013.

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:06 pm
I’ll add that the weather was certainly a factor, but a minor one. Better job, more money, a city that has it’s school system in order, a city and a state that have their fiscal houses in order.

That’s why I left. The weather is a bonus.

Comment by jerry 101 Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:06 pm
If they’re headed to Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Colorado…they’ll be coming back here in 5 to 10 years because of water shortages.

Comment by Jocko Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:13 pm
==Better job, more money==

I’m guessing (if you aren’t a retiree) that is the reason most people move. It’s the reason I was considering moving at one point in time. Had nothing to do with tax rates or any other stuff. That argument is just a political narrative.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:15 pm
Here’s a link to the job placement data for UIUC engineering. Only 44% remain in Illinois and only 59% remain in the midwest.

http://ecs.engineering.illinois.edu/outcomes/

Comment by Res Melius Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:16 pm
The weather is the straw that breaks the camel’s back. When people will move to LA (taxes and all) to escape Chicago, weather moves to the top of the list.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-confidential-snow-population-drop-1218-biz-20141217-column.html

Comment by Anyone Remember Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:18 pm
It’s a trend that’s been in place over a long period of time with some plateaus at different times. It’s not just weather or Minneapolis would be empty. It’s not. Better jobs, higher tech industries, and surprisingly- less reliance on some of our natural advantages like transportation, are making other places more attractive.

All of my children upon graduating from College had a bit of a rough go finding good employment here. This is a real trend and we do need to make our state more attractive. I want to stay here and I’d like my children and grandchildren to be near. I hope that happens. One of my kids has moved out west. Hoping he comes back.

Comment by A guy Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:20 pm
Remember that the people who use those Van Line companies are the ones with the money, and sufficient valuable belongings, to use them. The “poor” would just pack up the Chevy pick up and take off, or rent a U-Haul. It also doesn’t include recent college grads who have nothing to move.

I know it’s anecdotal, but I could find an engineering or construction management job paying more in Houston than Illinois in about 15 minutes. Wages are rising there because of incredible demand, as is the case in North Dakota. If you’re a low skill person, you can get a job in Florida pretty easily…at about $9 per hour. The people leaving Illinois for California are typically those in high paying tech careers where the increase in compensation far exceeds the negatives of higher taxes and high housing costs, as well as overcrowding, traffic, lack of water and having to deal with Californians. If the opportunities were in Illinois, they’d stay and revitalize the economy. Too bad Springfield and city hall dysfunction isn’t allowing the opportunities for them to come.

My kids want to come back to Chicago to work in internships in logistics and supply chain management this summer. That’s a pretty hot field right now. If the prospects are poor for that, it’ll tell a lot about the problems the poor business environment, created by Springfield, has wrought.

Young people just LOVE Chicago, and would like to live there. It’s really a shame that the government, and those who elected it, in Illinois have mucked things up so badly that they have to turn away those who can rescue the state financially.

As I’ve said before, the political culture has to change for Illinois to survive in this competitive world. At least Rauner has given SOME hope in that area….

Comment by Arizona Bob Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:23 pm
Demoralized,
Nope. The fact that taxes were going down instead of up factored into my decision to leave Illinois. I would have been happy to pay a bit more in taxes to see Illinois and Chicago get their fiscal houses in order.

Also, the job market is so tight in Illinois in my profession that I couldn’t get a better job and more money without leaving.

At the end of the day, James Carville is still right on one thing (IOW, It’s the economy, stupid).

Comment by jerry 101 Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:26 pm
@jerry:

My experience is only anecdotal of course, but I was offered a job in Florida. No state income tax. Still would have cost me more to live there than here. My point was that there are many considerations and the primary reason most people are going to move is jobs, more money and family from my experience.

I don’t think anybody sits around and decides to move because of tax rates (at least most people). It’s part of the overall equation but not the primary reason.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:33 pm
Everyone young enough should pick up a bottle of wine and go home and do something about this. lol

Comment by A guy Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 2:55 pm
All the baby boomers moving to warmer climates to retire. They will all be back in 30 years after climate change evaporates all the water and the South & West become incapable of sustaining large populations.

Comment by justthefacts Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 3:21 pm
And why is a state like Minnesota still growing nicely?

Because you can get around downtown Minneapolis without going outside. Also they have truly enclosed bus shelters.

Comment by Cheryl44 Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 3:27 pm
>They will all be back in 30 years after climate change evaporates all the water and the South & West become incapable of sustaining large populations.

Not to mention the Africanized bee invasion.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 3:28 pm
Cheryl is right. Chicago is about as north as you can go without encountering full-on winter-related infrastructure — tunnels, sky bridges, igloos…

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 3:32 pm
Minnesota, according to the Tax Foundation, has the sixth highest local and state tax burden in the country at 10.7 percent, just below Wisconsin at 11 percent.

Minnesota’s progressive individual income tax rate ranges from 5.35 to 9.85 percent.

Illinois’ local and state tax burden, before the rollback, was thirteenth as 10.2 percent.

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 3:43 pm
@Word
=Minnesota’s progressive individual income tax rate ranges from 5.35 to 9.85 percent.

Illinois’ local and state tax burden, before the rollback, was thirteenth as 10.2 percent.=

The absolute tax rate isn’t the problem with people leaving Illinois, while they’re staying in Minnesota with much higher tax rates and much colder and snowier winters. It’s how people perceive their tax dollars are being spent.

In Minnesota, they don’t have the Illinois mentality of “entitlement” found in the taxeaters in Illinois. Schools are actually performing commensurate with spending, and Minneapolis schools are nowhere near as dysfunctional as Chicago. I know there are demographic issues contributing to this, but most Minnesotans see good results in schools, roads and public infrastructure for their dollars, and don’t feel the corruption is cheating them out of what they pay in taxes.

It would be interesting to compare the perception of the value in government in Minnesota as compared to Illinois.

What drives the people out of Illinois is that there isn’t the perception of hope for a functional, fiscally responsible government in Illinois. The perception is that government is mostly there to serve itself rather than the people, whether that’s right or wrong.

People in Illinois would be willing to pay more to fix the fiscal problems of the state IF they had confidence that those taking the money in Springfield would actually solve the problems with it. Based on recent history, the people would be foolish to do so.

One good thing about Rauner being elected is that he has a chance to change that perception and give people the faith that if they sacrifice to solve the state’s problems, their money will be honestly spent to solve the problems and “business as usual” with all the corruption and pork will be put on the backburner until the fiscal house is in order.

People in Illinois WANT to believe. The problem is that Springfield and the guy on the fifth floor of city hall have given them too many reasons not to…..

Comment by Arizona Bob Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 4:41 pm
People who move from IL to CA apparently aren’t dissuaded by the double-digit top rate in the CA income tax, while the IL rate is a mere 3.75%. I guess those moving out to CA and MN aren’t fleeing high state taxes, despite what IPI and IR would insinuate.

Comment by anon Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 4:44 pm
Perhaps I missed it, but did they ever provide data on the average age of those leaving? As a younger boomer (mid-50s), I would be interested in what percentage of those leaving the state are going where golf is a twelve month sport.

Comment by Nothin's easy... Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 6:12 pm
Most of this hubris was subject matter I studied in college in 1982/1983. It’s been documented and factored in statistical analyses by insurance companies, independent think tanks, food manufacturers, etc. Most of what we are discussing here is the beginning of a political argument. Sad. Negotiating with tainted or incomplete statistics is not negotiating in good faith. Nor will it work. Governmental change is achieved by stringing together a lot of singles - there are very few home runs and fewer grand slams.

Comment by Nothin's easy... Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 6:27 pm
Why the glum face? Isn’t this what the GOP and Trib edit board wanted the past decade? I figure they’re doing victory dances that their messaging actually worked. Who knew anyone paid them any attention?

Comment by Michelle Flaherty Thursday, Jan 22, 15 @ 9:23 pm
I am one of those migrants, I literally left Illinois on the same day I retired and never looked back. For me it was taxes, weather and to many liberal Democrats.

Comment by Tony Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 7:43 am