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Another possible Kirk foe emerges

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Illinois

Rep. Robin Kelly D-Ill. is mulling a U.S. Senate run, making her the fourth member of the Illinois Democratic House delegation looking at a 2016 challenge to Sen. Mark Kirk R-Ill.

“She is doing her due diligence to see if there is a path for her to run,” spokesman Kayce Ataiyero told the Sun-Times Friday morning.

“She believes that given her strong experience in all levels of government, she would be a strong candidate to represent Illinois in the Senate,” Ataiyero said.

The other Illinois House Democrats weighing a run are Rep. Tammy Duckworth, Rep. Bill Foster and Rep. Cheri Bustos.

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:00 am

Comments

Why not…

Still say Foster is basically in at this point…

Comment by OneMan Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:05 am
Foster? What makes you say he’s such a shoe-in?

Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:07 am
Most of these alleged candidates are just seeking some publicity.

Comment by Formerpol Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:09 am
I would like to know who the following possible US Senate candidates are supporting for Mayor of Chicago:

* Sen. Daniel Biss
* Rep. Cheri Bustos
* Rep. Tammy Duckworth
* Rep. Bill Foster
* Treasurer Mike Frerichs
* Rep. Robin Kelly
* Sen. Andy Manar
* Sen. Kwame Raoul
* Sheila Simon

Any candidate who is going to run as being from the Elizabeth Warren wing of the party should have no problem saying, “Rahm Emanuel should not be elected Mayor of Chicago,” right?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:09 am
This is more “look at me!” than “here I come!”

Robin Kelly knows what it feels like without an office of her own, so does Foster.

They really want to risk it all, roll the dice after climbing the mountain a second time to relevancy? Doubt it.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:14 am
Is there a U.S. Rep who doesn’t want to be a U.S. Senator? Doesn’t surprise me that more Reps are popping up as potential candidates.

Comment by Demoralized Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:15 am
…I’m willing to take bets right now that Frerichs and Biss do not run for senate in 2016.

Feels like it is Duckworth until she says no, and then its a scramble.

Comment by Anon Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:15 am
Anon…

Basically because Foster in his races had been a first mover, be it giving himself big money the first time he ran for congress in part to send a message to Chapa LaVia that he was serious.

or

When he ran in his new district how it moved early (with money again in part) to show the guy the party wanted to run that he meant business…

So when he and his ex-wife decided to sit down with Carol Marin now shows me that he is going to run, otherwise why bother to do it now. Also (and I admit I am not a Bill Foster fan) I really think that he thinks (and he may well be) fundamentally too smart for the House, that a guy like him, with his temperament (have to say he is the worst guy I have ever seen on the stump, just not his thing) the Senate is a better match.

Comment by OneMan Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:16 am
Treasurer Frerichs has already achieved his dream. He is the Illinois State Treasurer. Any implication that he is using this powerful position of responsibility as a means to seek higher office is repulsive!

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:18 am
Durbin said it best–the advantage to Senate over House is not having to run every two years. That may be enough to prompt every House member to consider it!

Comment by D.P.Gumby Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:18 am
I think they’re all looking to see if they can shake some money off the tree.

Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:20 am
Get your pillows ready if Foster gets the nomination

Comment by k3 Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:21 am
Kelly — Didn’t Mike Bloomberg pay for her first election?

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:23 am
US House members only theoretically run every two years.

Once a US House member successfully defends the seat the first time, there is close to zero chance of losing an election absent a scandal (self-inflicted) or getting a bad re-districting.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:25 am
- OneMan -,

You are right about Foster, but I think when Foster does his own internals, sees the field he may face, if he can secure cash to be competitive…

The Marin maneuver is going to be a “poll thing”;

Push poll about the divorce and inuendo before the media “explanation”, and then do an internal after, a push on how it’s reported and “Now do you think it will make you more or less likely …”

Foster is 100%, no doubt, exploring.

Kelly seems to be asking for relevance.

They both could be giving up their own comeback stories for the windmills.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:27 am
==Any candidate who is going to run as being from the Elizabeth Warren wing of the party should have no problem saying, “Rahm Emanuel should not be elected Mayor of Chicago,” right?==

Did Karen Lewis decide to run? Who is the progressive alternative to Rahm? Fioretti, who voted for the parking meter deal and made more contributions to the GOP than Dems? Willie Wilson, who backed Rauner? Chuy Garcia, who was in favor of the Cook County pension reform and was a prime mover behind the County budget that laid off 500 people?

Comment by chi Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:29 am
Kirk is so slippery, he makes Bill Clinton look like he’s stuck in the mud.

Master politician, but not in a good way. Not to be underestimated in any race. And he and Rauner are now joined at the hip.

Comment by walker Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:32 am
@Carl Nyberg: =I would like to know who the following possible US Senate candidates are supporting for Mayor of Chicago=

I would like to know: who cares? What difference in the world does it make who Cheri Bustos, Bill Foster, Mike Frehrichs, Andy Manar or Sheila Simon think about who should be Mayor of Chicago? They are not obligated to announce their support one way or the other. And who in Chicago would care?

The relevance of your post simply baffles me.

Comment by Nick Naylor Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:38 am
Duckworth and Kelly are in safe districts right now. Why would they want to throw that away. Seems like Duckworth and Kelly may be massaging their own egos at the moment.

Facing more serious challengers in the future than Duckworth and Kelly are perhaps Foster and Bustos. They might like to move to try to win a safer Senate seat.

Kirk has never lost an election and usually wins by close margins, even in “Presidential Years.” I wouldn’t count him out.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:43 am
If Sen. Kirk’s performance as a guest on Morning Joe this week is any indication of his post stroke abilities I am not sure how he can stand up to the rigors of a campaign.

Comment by truthteller Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:44 am
Nick, you took the words right out of my mouth, do you think anyone in the city really knows who Andy Manar is.

You are truly a small delusional man

Comment by Someone you should know Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:47 am
I’ll take Duckworth against the field. Tough to go negative successfully on someone with her service record.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:49 am
===Facing more serious challengers in the future than Duckworth and Kelly are perhaps Foster and Bustos. They might like to move to try to win a safer Senate seat.===

Let’s look at those seats?

Foster, 2014

Foster - 53.5%
Senger - 46.5%

Bustos

Bustos - 53%
Schilling - 47%

Comfortable margins.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:51 am
What’s up isn’t just about running every two years - it is about being a nobody in the US House because your party is in the minority. The “every two year” problem isn’t a problem when you have the majority power of making things happen in the US House. Being in the minority makes is doubly hard for representatives who knew what it was like to be important congressional members. Getting shut out of important decision making moves with Congress makes being in Congress not much fun.

So a lot of these Democrats want to try for the Senate because it holds out a bigger chance than the House to move back to the Democrats in 2016. If that happens, they get to return to enjoying those power perks and friends with money, they lost when the GOP took over four years ago.

As for Robin - she is just a player with an ambition. Her district isn’t one that builds a leader with statewide appeal. Just as the convicted Jesse Jackson Jr. how poorly this district builds a portfolio from which to gain a higher office. Jackson was a multiple term winner in this bright blue congressional district. Jackson won his last race without even showing up! That isn’t the kind of district from which to gain any leadership credibility. Kelly is learning this right now.

Jackson made a complete fool of himself with Blagojevich over that US Senate seat, pretending to campaign across Illinois as though he was the consensus choice to win Blagojevich’s “F’n Golden” appointment. Lucky for him, Blago went down when he did, or ex-Congressman Jackson and his wife would have been in even bigger trouble. Jackson could have kept his US House seat until he died, but the problem was Jackson was bored with it. Kelly is learning about how boring it is to represent this politically monolithic district filled with struggling inner suburban bedroom communities.

As Congress becomes more gerrymandered and partisan, there is less for its members to gain, and it is even worse when your party is in the minority today and most likely tomorrow.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:59 am
OW: Looking only at numbers, comfortable margins, yes. Seats previously held by Republicans, yes. Seats that could still be winnable by strong Republican candidates, yes. Seats that may be subjected to a degree of targeting by Republicans, yes.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:59 am
Selfishly, I’d welcome everyone from the Dem side into this race. Primaries are tough. Crowded primaries are a sty. No one leaves clean. Welcome all.

Comment by A guy Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:59 am
- Louis G. Atsaves -

With respect.

Schilling, well, he was the sitting Congressman at one point, right?

Senger, well, she allegedly mirrored enough of the district, and a female face, so, who do recruit after that?

Foster and Bustos are comfortable.

Kelly is solid

All three would be foolish to run.

Duckworth taking a gamble? Wins, goes to the Senate. Loses, a Dem President might tap her for the Administration. Lots more landing places for Duckworth.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:06 am
@@@@@ Carl Nyberg - Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:09 am:

I would like to know who the following possible US Senate candidates are supporting for Mayor of Chicago:

* Sen. Daniel Biss
* Rep. Cheri Bustos
* Rep. Tammy Duckworth
* Rep. Bill Foster
* Treasurer Mike Frerichs
* Rep. Robin Kelly
* Sen. Andy Manar
* Sen. Kwame Raoul
* Sheila Simon

Any candidate who is going to run as being from the Elizabeth Warren wing of the party should have no problem saying, “Rahm Emanuel should not be elected Mayor of Chicago,” right? @@@@@

I would add Representative Elaine Nekritz to that list. She also has been carrying Rahm’s water in Springfield since he was elected. If all these people run the primary will be a blood bath.

The problem for any candidate with Rahm’s blessing will be that they are not going to play well in the state south of US I-80 or west of Illinois 47.

Former US Senator from Illinois Paul Douglas must be rolling in his grave with this list of hard left liberals. If Elizabeth Warren gets in the early primaries it could turn into a very interesting primary season with a lot of carnage.

Comment by ROLLO TOMASI Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:07 am
=You are truly a small delusional man=

Someone, are you talking about me?

Comment by Nick Naylor Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:10 am
I would think that Duckworth would be the strongest candidate here.
@anonymous, I believe Bloomberg donated $2 million to Kelly in her last campaign as she shares Bloomberg’s vision on strong gun control laws. In most counties in Illinois her gun control beliefs are going to hurt her more than help her and would make winning a statewide office very tough.

Comment by The Dude Abides Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:11 am
She hasn’t even been in office for one full term, and has already lost one statewide election. Sounds like strong candidate material to me.

All of the potential Dem candidates have their warts, but Rep. Kelly would be the weakest of the bunch.

Comment by ChrisB Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:15 am
No I’m laughing at Carl with you

Comment by Someone you should know Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:15 am
@Someone you should know–

Whew! For a minute there….

Thanks for clarifying!

Comment by Nick Naylor Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:16 am
So I’m in the old mold of a moderate Democrat, and frankly most on this list of potential candidates worry me more than anything. I like Biss in many ways, but I want him in Springfield where I think he is among the smartest in the room. If this is the list, I’ll be voting Kirk come the general.

Comment by Niles Township Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:18 am
Among the four U.S. reps., Rich listed, Rep. Kelly is most likely to win, since she was a state legislator. Two of the last three IL Democrats, who were elected to the U.S. Senate (Barack Obama and Carol Moseley-Braun) were state legislators.

Comment by Conservative Veteran Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:18 am
@@@@@@
- Anonymous - Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 10:23 am:

Kelly — Didn’t Mike Bloomberg pay for her first election?

@@@@@@

Various Friends of Rahm gave money to Bloomberg cause’s and then he funded her run for office. He was just a clearing house for the alleged anti gun movement.

This way the Clinton’s and Rahm did not directly have their fingerprints on the money. Everyone in that camp wanted to ensure that Jesse Jackson family’s was out of elected office for the foreseeable future.

Comment by ROLLO TOMASI Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:19 am
===Two of the last three IL Democrats, who were elected to the U.S. Senate (Barack Obama and Carol Moseley-Braun) were state legislators. ===

That in and of itself means zero.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:20 am
Personally, I like Robin Kelly, but I think it would be a mistake for her to run for Senate. Her outspoken stance on gun control-although admirable in my opinion-would make her one of the NRA’s top targets (pun intended) in the country. She would also be an inviting target for other right-wing Super PACs. And her gun control stance coupled with this outside money flooding the airwaves would really hurt her downstate causing her to need big margins in Cook County and the suburbs where Kirk seems to do relatively well. Unless it’s a huge Democrat wave year with Hillary (which I doubt coming off of 8 years of a Democratic president) I would like Kirk’s chances against Kelly–assuming Kirk is actually up to the task of running in hotly contested statewide primary and general elections.

Comment by Livin' the Life Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:28 am
Being in the minority in the House isn’t the greatest gig in the world. The House ain’t flipping Dem anytime soon.

You have more pull in the minority in the Senate. Plus, there’s a reasonable chance the Senate could flip back in 2016, as the dynamics will be completely reversed from 2014 and the GOP will be defending many more seats.

Kirk will certainly be one of the top Dem targets so the money will be there for the Dem nominee.

Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:33 am
@Anonymous: Treasurer Frerichs has already achieved his dream. He is the Illinois State Treasurer. Any implication that he is using this powerful position of responsibility as a means to seek higher office is repulsive!

That’s the funniest thing I have read in years. I hope it was stated tongue-in-cheek. Frerichs is already measuring the Secretary of State’s office for drapes.

Comment by LincolnLounger Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 11:38 am
the moment she was sworn in, people were talking to robin kelly about running for this seat. she has always been, and maybe even will continue to be, an underdog in her races. she’s just “too nice,” “too good a person” to be considered competitive.

except when she wins. yep, she lost a seat in 2010 (what a great democratic year that was!) to what i would consider an unethical opponent who was too cute by half BUT she raised more money than anyone expected AND she lost by less than anyone predicted. if she had run full-time instead of managing the treasurer’s office full-time (and campaigning in her spare or leave time), she probably would have beaten rutherford. in 2010.

underestimate robin at your peril. i’d love to see her run, but i’m betting you already figured that out! the reason people want to see robin kelly in the senate is because she honestly cares about the people she serves, works her heart out for them (i’ll say, again, that i think she risks her own health given how hard she works for her constituents), she understands what the needs are for the people she serves and she always puts them first.

how many other politicians can you say that about?

Comment by bored now Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 1:11 pm
==Frerichs is already measuring the Secretary of State’s office for drapes.==

‘Tomorrow, Pinky, we take over the world!’

Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 1:15 pm
Robin is the only congress-critter mentioned who has run for a state-wide office. She did not win, but she did run a solid race. She is a very good candidate; I have seen most of those mentioned so far on the stump, and Robin is at the front of the pack. The state-wide race also put her in contact with a lot of ground-level troops and could her her take the primary. Her strong anti-gun stance would hurt her down state and give her opponent an opening, but it depends on who the Republicans pick (if not Kirk).

As mentioned, the big question for any of the Congress-critters is: Do you give up your almost-certainly safe seat in the House for a maybe Senate seat. That step is a big one, especially if you have to make it through a primary.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 1:58 pm
If Robin could not even beat Dan Rutherford, how is she going to beat Mark Kirk?

Kirk was re-elected in the swing 10th District in 2008, with Obama at the top of the ticket winning the area by 30+ points.

Comment by Jonh Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 2:31 pm
I’m betting that Napoleon Herris will at least test the waters. Mind you, I’m not promoting him or calling him viable; but considering his leap into the Congressional primary, this has to be on his radar screen.

Comment by Archiesmom Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 3:42 pm
Viability in this primary will require money, and a lot of it. It will have to be Federally qualified money, too, so whoever runs has to have a Rolodex full of individuals willing to max out, qualifying PACs and super PACS. Most state legislators do not have that resource, as so much state money is corporate or union. So a current Congresscritter should have an advantage in fundraising. This seat will cost millions.

Comment by Archiesmom Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 3:51 pm
Good point Archiesmom. Kirk not only will have his big North Shore Donors, but now he will have the Rauner Network to back him.

Kirk was blindsided in 2010 with the Nat Guard scandal, but he will be more prepared this time around. I respect the fact that he won that tough 10th district 5 times, 3 times during a Presidential election.

Comment by Jacob Friday, Jan 23, 15 @ 4:18 pm