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Not a lot of surprises in the latest Copley poll. This is essentially the same result as every other poll except that goofy Sun-Times outlier.
Blagojevich’s support was strongest in Cook County, where 63 percent of respondents said they support him. He had 40 percent support in the traditionally Republican counties surrounding Cook and 36 percent through the rest of the state.Topinka had her strongest showing in the counties around Cook with 49 percent. About 45 percent of downstate respondents said they support her, while she is the favored candidate of only 22 percent of Cook County voters.
Blagojevich also is more popular with women voters than Topinka. Blagojevich was preferred by 49 percent of female respondents and 45 percent of males. Topinka did better with men. The poll shows 39 percent of the male respondents support Topinka versus 35 percent of females.
Respondents who described themselves as independents - 27 percent of the survey sample - split almost evenly between the two candidates, with Blagojevich getting 36 percent to Topinka’s 38 percent.
* Meanwhile, Copley found that Alexi Giannoulias led Chris Radogno 38-26 with 35 percent undecided. Lisa Madigan was ahead of alleged candidate Stu Umholtz 64-22. Jesse White led Dan Rutherford 65-25. Dan Hynes showed just the slightest bit of weakness with his 51-22 lead over Carole Pankau.
* Copley also polled on ethics.
Asked whether they felt Topinka, the Republican state treasurer, has conducted herself ethically in office, 49 percent of registered voters polled last week replied that she has, while 25 percent said she has not.By contrast, those polled were split evenly when asked if Topinka’s opponent in the Nov. 7 election, Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, has been ethical - 41 percent said he has been, while another 41 percent said he has not.
The results indicate that “voters don’t have a lot of confidence in either candidate with respect to the ethical climate in Illinois,” said Robert Rich, director of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. […]
When asked which candidate would do a better job of improving the ethical climate in state government, 37 percent of the respondents listed Blagojevich, while 34 percent named Topinka. Six percent favored Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, while 23 percent said that none would or that they didn’t know.
Asked if they thought public schools in Illinois are adequately funded, 61 percent said “no,” while only 30 percent said they think schools have enough money. Another 9 percent said they were not sure. […]The poll asked voters if they would support an increase in the income or sales tax to boost state funding for schools “if it were paired with a partial, but not dollar for dollar, reduction of property taxes . . .” Statewide, 50 percent of respondents said they would support such an increase, while 38 percent were opposed. Another 12 percent were undecided. […]
Blagojevich has proposed selling the state lottery and using the proceeds to increase education funding. The Copley poll shows only 29 percent of respondents favor that idea, while 49 percent oppose it. Another 22 percent are undecided.
Topinka’s idea to put a casino in Chicago to generate additional gambling revenue for Illinois has more support, but still not from a majority of respondents. The poll shows that 46 percent of voters favor the casino idea, 40 percent oppose it and 14 percent are undecided. In Cook County, which includes Chicago, 53 percent support the casino and 38 percent oppose it. It is the only part of the state where more than half of the respondents supported a Chicago casino.
Voters also weren’t too thrilled with the idea of expanding the number of gaming positions at existing casinos, another part of Topinka’s plan. Only 35 percent of respondents said they support the idea, while 47 percent said they oppose it.
* Copley’s poll also found that most voters say they want the governor to live in Springfield.
A combined 63 percent of the respondents answered either “very important” or “somewhat important.” A combined 36 percent said the issue was either “not too important” or “not at all important.”
For whatever reason, Copley didn’t say how many voters thought the issue was just somewhat important, which might have undercut the story. Also, the Peoria Journal-Star gets the award for goofiest headline ever with its “Most voters say governor should live” entry on Sunday.
*** UPDATE *** I meant to put this into the original post and forgot. Topinka’s campaign statement, from a press release:
“At the mid-September point, this is the closest Governor’s race since 1990. Both poll results show Judy Baar Topinka has withstood the most massive assault of negative advertising in Illinois history and remains right on Rod Blagojevich’s heels,” said Topinka spokesman John McGovern.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 8:26 am
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voters don’t have a lot of confidence in either candidate with respect to the ethical climate in Illinois,
Problem with Illinois voters is they think an ethical candidate can’t get anything done.
Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 8:37 am
When is the Sun-Times going to apologize for their bogus poll? It’s becoming more and more evident that their poll was way, way off. A major media outlet puts out a ridiculous poll and uses that poll to essentially declare the gov’s race over. Isn’t that wrong? Isn’t that news? We’re waiting.
Comment by Truth Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 8:43 am
Has Topinka broke 40% in ANY poll?
Comment by Roomie Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 8:56 am
>Problem with Illinois voters is they think an ethical candidate can’t get anything done.
“While we are forced to live in a democracy with several branches of government, sometimes in a democracy the process is frustratingly slow.”
Neither do the candidates, Bill
Comment by Leroy Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 9:00 am
It is sad that Stewie U has not had money to mount a campaign. He has 20 years experiences as a prosecutor vs how many for Little Lisa? Lisa has had much time to raise money, since she has not investigated Cook County, GOv (with a note from Fitz’s office) or the city of Chicago.
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 9:00 am
Roomie has a good point. Topinka has never broken 40%, even with most of the Illinois media on her side and thwacking Blago every day over pretty much the same practices she’s guilty of.
Republicans could have coasted to victory in this race with a decent candidate.
Comment by RealClear Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 9:41 am
To play off the Topinka camps statement…
Rod Blagojevich has has withstood the most massive assault by the mainstream media in Illinois history and remains well ahead of his opponent.
Comment by Roomie Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 9:45 am
Wow, reporting federal investigations and
asking about a job:
1. for which the woman failed the test,
2. whose husband gave $1500 to the Gov’s family account,
3. husband is long time friends w/Gov,
4. the job moved a lot closer to home,
5. husband worked on the Gov’s camapign,
6. the governor asked/ordered that she be found a job and,
7. the gov has different stories for the check
is not ludicrous on it’s face or any other bother part is an assault? He also is pumping more money into an illegal, wasteful RX program.
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 9:52 am
Aren’t we going to blog today about the charges that Judy accepts campaign contributions from banks that she awards state business to?
Can’t we start making jokes about her upcoming indictments,prison sentence, perp walk, and all of the other good stuff that regularly flows around here?
Charges were levelled at Topinka yesterday that banks have contributed almost half a million dollars to her camapign… and her campaign’s response was “…ridiculous, ludicrous…” sound familiar?
Even Daley won’t take contributions from banks that do business from the city.
What’s she thinking?
Maybe that the press corps is so busy bashing Rod that they won’t ever get around to her.
Comment by Bill Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 9:58 am
“At the mid-September point, this is the closest Governor’s race since 1990. Both poll results show Judy Baar Topinka has withstood the most massive assault of negative advertising in Illinois history and remains right on Rod Blagojevich’s heels,†said Topinka spokesman John McGovern.
What a fluff spin-quote. Right on his heels? I’m no big Blago fan but at least he seems to want to win.
At least McGovern didn’t spin it as “Topinka’s actually leading Blagojevich among people who would vote for the Republican in the race.”
Comment by NW burbs Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 10:37 am
I thought Jim Ryan- Blagojevich was pretty darn close, even in last 6 week polling…am I wrong? And 1990, wasn’t Edgar always in the lead in polling against Hartigan? Also, funny they should cherry-pick 1990…wasn’t Thompson-Stevenson in 1982 the closest race in decades? I think Thompson won by 1-1/2 vote per precinct, and Stevenson tried to challenge the result in court.
This latest poll, Rod 47, Judy 37 doesn’t sound very close to me. So, as to Judy’s press office…what are they thinking?
Comment by Anon Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 10:49 am
Bill you know we smell Blago blood and he’s done.Where are you going to work when it is Governor Judy.Tell you what if your real nice we will let you polka at her governor’s ball.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 10:52 am
If the democrats led both the gov’s and state treasurer’s contest; it shows Illinois does not care or reads the news. Heck we elected George Ryan and other so called clouded candidates before. Thompson told one story before the election and raised taxes. Edgar tried the same thing.
Lets face it the Illinois voters are fooled all time.
Comment by annie Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 11:02 am
Another poll and another Blago lead with JBT at 40 or below. JBT may not be cooked completely but she is past the medium rare done stage and closer to the medium well done stage.
Comment by Southern Ilinois Democrat Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 11:03 am
I can’t believe JBT took money from the banks she regulates. I am shocked and appalled and call for….oh, wait a minute. She doesn’t regulate banks. The Governor does. Well I am sure he didn’t accept any contributions from banks since his code department regulates them.
So what am I suppose to be outraged about again? Oh yea….I can’t believe JBT took money from banks she awards state contracts to. I am shocked and appalled and call for a thorough investigation into these allegations!
There Bill, do you feel better now?
Comment by Jaded Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 11:21 am
“Anon 10:49″ you are incorrect on a couple of things.
In a Tribune poll taken Sept. 27 through Oct. 1, 2002, Rod Blagojevich led Jim Ryan 51-35. In 1982, the polls had predicted a Big Jim blow-out right up until the end.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 11:28 am
Rutherford’s numbers are embarrasing.
Cosidering that Umholtz has done absolutely nothing but get his name on the ballot, Rutherford is only up by 3%.
Just embarassing.
Comment by The Tumbler Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 12:04 pm
Now,Jaded,
I didn’t say she regulated banks I said she awarded state business to banks, which she does, particularly banks that in turn contribute to her camapign. That is a definite no-no ethically.Ask Miriam Santos.
But….let’s just back to the Blago bashing!
Comment by Bill Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 12:32 pm
Bill, Santos was exonerated. Also, the governor regulates banks and I did a very quick check of his contributions and found he has taken about a million dollars from banks since 1/1/2002.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 12:35 pm
Watching Blagojevich is like watching a train wreck. He has all these paid handlers waving at the crowd and shouting, “Nothing to look at here, folks!” They have all these TV ads smearing Topinka as the anti-Christ. It is simply unbelievable but highly entertaining.
Is Blagojevich right? Can you just buy an election if the other guy is too broke to match your war chest? So far he is proving you can!
We have another month to go. Will we crash and burn with Blagojevich or swerve last minute with Topinka? This is absolutely fascinating.
This reminds me a lot of the California election in 2002 when Grey Davis was re-elected over an extremely weak Republican candidate. Once in office, the stench of corruption drove him out in a recall. Thanks to the recall, California was able to fix it’s mistake. Illinois doesn’t have that. So, we will be dead in the water if Blagojevich is re-elected and the scandals continue piling on.
Illinois has fallen so far over the past ten years, I can’t believe we can still fall further.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 1:00 pm
Santos was “exonerated” after serving time and being removed from office.
Comment by Bill Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 2:50 pm
…and the Governor’s role in “regulating” banks does not compare to Topinka deciding which banks will get state business.
Comment by Bill Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 2:53 pm
Bill, just what the heck is your point about Santos anyway?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 3:17 pm
After reading the polls and seeing the response from potential voters on corruption and ethics, I have this image in mind….
St. George (aka The Feds or St. Patrick) and a multi-headed Dragon (political corruption). St. George lobs off one head and then another head of the Dragon with his mighty sword and lo’ and behold the little peasants (aka the VOTERS) standing around pick them up and put ‘em back on the Dragon.
I am still hoping these polls are wrong….
Comment by CrunchyCon Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 3:49 pm
More good news for Alexi Giannoulias. Still far ahead of his opponent. Alexi has come up 4 points in less than 2 weeks in the polls.
Comment by (618) Democrat Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 4:40 pm
Bill, you’re full of hooey. Rod’s bank regulatory powers mean a heck of a lot more to any Illinois bank (with a State charter if you know the difference) than a deposit from the Treasurer, all of which are competitively bid.
Rod has his own form of competitive bidding-the firms who cough up the most cash to the campaign get the work.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Sep 25, 06 @ 7:28 pm