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Today’s number: 8

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Illinois

* The governor has supreme confidence in himself…

Rauner said after his speech that he believed it would take the General Assembly to pass legislation to allow local municipalities the right to vote on whether to implement the zones, a daunting task as Democrats hold veto-proof majorities in the House and the Senate.

The rest of his presentation focused on a variety of topics he had expressed interest in taking on during his first term, including term limits for officeholders, more charter schools, lowering workers compensation and unemployment insurance costs for businesses and reducing local property taxes.

Despite the breadth of his goals, Rauner said he is confident he can pass every piece of agenda through the General Assembly in eight comprehensive bills.

“We can pass eight bills,” he said. “We have to focus like a laser and get this done.”

Odds?

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:00 am

Comments

All 8?

Odds that he could do it if the GA was Republican: 1/1

Odds that it will happen with the GA as it actually exists: slim/none

Comment by Anonymoiis Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:04 am
One in a million

Comment by very old soil Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:05 am
8. Not 10.

What changed?

Comment by Dirty Red Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:05 am
So is it 8 votes or 10 votes? I thought there were 10 things he needed from the republicans in order to avoid having problem with him?

Comment by Anon Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:05 am
===8. Not 10.===

You gotta build in a cushion.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:06 am
More charter schools is a definite. There’s a lot of money behind them and people in both parties who want a spot at the trough. I don’t see Term limits getting through Madigan. The thing that worries me is Madigan is now more powerful than ever and I could see some unholy bargains where the Democrats sign off on some horrible legislation they would normally block from the GOP and in turn, the Republicans do the same.

Comment by Carhart Representative Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:07 am
Zero chance he goes 8 for 8.. work comp is 50/50, I doubt he gets every R on the bus for all 8 of his bills..

Comment by Not Rich Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:07 am
8? Under promising, and when it’s 10, it’ll be over delivering!

Pass Rauner’s 8 Bills as HE wants them passed?

Same odds of the state of Illinois changing her name to South Wisconsin or West Indiana…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:08 am
Enterprise zones, term limits, expanded charter schools, workman’s comp reform, unemployment insurance reform and a property tax freeze?

I’d say the odds of all of that passing this year are closer to none than to slim. I think he could win another term and still not pass more than 2-3 of those.

Does he realize that he’s setting himself up for an epic fail? Has anyone explained to him how to manage expectations? Hint: under promise, over deliver. He’s doing the opposite of that.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:09 am
Believe it when we see Democratic Chief Sponsors on these bills.

As Rauner describes it, odds are zero. But there will be some results to his liking.

More workers’ comp and tort reform, better than even. Support for minority owned entrepreneurs. Yes. Restructure of DCEO, yes. The rest of the business agenda — not very likely.

He might offer eight comprehensive bills, but what comes out of the sausage machine will be various boutique products.

Comment by walker Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:12 am
Rauner in January: I need you on ALL ten issues.

Rauner in February: I need you to vote on ALL eight bills.

Rauner in May: Please just give me one vote on this budget!

Comment by Abe the Babe Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:12 am
1 bill, just like the 1 bone he threw the speaker on the presidential library.

Comment by AC Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:13 am
The better question might be - How much more than the initial $20 million is he and his pals willing to spend to “motivate’ lawmakers and the leaders to do the things he wants done?

Comment by Curious... Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:13 am
OW Same odds as changing Illinois name(s) to Chicagoville and Illinois South? Sorry, couldn’t resist…

Comment by downstate commissioner Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:14 am
The Cubs have better odds to win the World Series.

Comment by Jorge Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:14 am
Jorge beat me to it!

Comment by Stones Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:17 am
===The Cubs have better odds to win the World Series===

Nationals, Dodgers, Angels, and Red Sox are the only four Ball Clubs with better odds than the Cubs in 2015.

Cubs? They are at 14/1.

Rauner would take those odds for all 8

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:19 am
The way it is right now. How about a snowball’s chance in Hades.

Comment by Cabildero Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:20 am
Rauner Crew might like the Phillies odds too - 300/1.

300/1 is still better than 1 in a million for all 8, exactly as Rauner wants.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:22 am
It’s more likely Rauner will sign the minimum wage bill., than any of the “final?” 8 will pass as is.

Comment by Wensicia Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:24 am
I would say the odds are slim and none. The only way he’ll pass 8 bills if he allows them to be so watered down that they don’t represent anything near his real definition of comprehensive. Of course, he’d declare victory on anything that gets passed.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:33 am
“The Speaker said there would be special subcommittees for my bills!”

Comment by Quizzical Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:37 am
would that be an octafecta? same odds as rauner standing on oak street beach and throwing a silver dollar across lake michigan.

i could see any one of those issues taking as many as eight bills to get done. so far we have not seen any real policy material come out of rauners operation that can stand the light of day. he spent millions on term limits, assured us it was constitutional, and it went down fast. then he campaigned and advertised against the decision, because it didnt take popularity into account.

i have no confidence they can constitutionally fit his broad agenda into just eight bills. he hired a lot of out of state counsel. good luck with your drafts.

most bills pass with overwhelming majorities, because irritants have been filtered out, so most everyone can be on board. half a loaf, etc. rauner seems to think he will squeak by 30/60 on his roll calls. i dont see it.

Comment by langhorne Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:38 am
At least he is trying.. its not a huge leap to have better results that PQ

Comment by Not Rich Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:39 am
I suspect the AFSCME contract negotiations will play a big, big part in how receptive folks are to Rauner’s ideas. If the state looks to be headed toward an imminent strike, I can’t imagine many legislators handing Rauner whatever he wants in terms of votes.

That’s going to be the elephant in the room — the negotiations — and I suspect it will define Rauner for at least the next two and possibly the next four years. Having a cushion of 20 million when that — and quite a bit more — would be lost during a strike would be quite interesting.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:40 am
He can get his agenda enacted, but it’s gonna cost him a lot more than 8 bills.

Comment by Anon. Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:42 am
Zero. Zilch. Nothing. Nada. No potatoes. Diddly-squat. A big old goose egg. Zamboni.

Comment by Bobbysox Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:44 am
- Not Rich - Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:39 am:

At least he is trying.. its not a huge leap to have better results that PQ

You’ve gotta be kidding me.. At least he’s trying? He was elected to try hard? Quinn tried hard too, and he was booted from office. Trying hard is the minimum standard. Rauner promised results. Not show me results, and not just bills being passed. I want to see things he campaigned on. Show me those were not just empty promises. We’ll see.

To the post. Odds are long. I’d lay a $2 bet and waited to see what happens. I wouldn’t bet my mortgage payment.

Comment by Try-4-Truth Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:45 am
He has a better chance of winning the Power Ball drawing on Wednesday

Comment by Tommydanger Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:47 am
Same odds the Cub have to win last year’s World Series

Comment by RNUG Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:49 am
All eight? Zero percent.

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 11:59 am
Moses: “Here are the 15 [crash] … er … 10 Commandments!”

Rauner: “Here are the 10 [snickers from the peanut gallery] … er … 8 bills that we will pass!”

Comment by Skeptic Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:01 pm
Numbers 9 and 10 are part of Governor Rauner’s social agenda. One through 8 are the economic agenda. As for the odds, I am going with zero if he is talking about the 99th GA.

Comment by SAP Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:01 pm
Not at this time.

Comment by MrGrassroots Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:09 pm
Skeptic–perfect reference for Count DeMoney–I mean, governor.

Comment by Kippax Blue Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:17 pm
Odds? $20 million to one

Comment by Empty Suit Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:19 pm
Turn the 8 90 degrees to the right - or to the left, as you prefer.

Comment by Put the Fun in unfunded Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:21 pm
This is just like his BIG move in the black community during the campaign and how many votes did that get him???? Alll wishful thinking….like Obama….doesn’t understand the ways of Springfield.

Comment by scott aster Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:34 pm
So far Quizzical wins for best post. I wonder if his staff has uttered the same magical words yet that Blago’s senior staffers did “Just who do these Madigan’s think they are?”

Comment by nadia Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:35 pm
Just paraphrase Harry:

He’ll sit here, and he’ll say, ‘Do this! Do that!’ And nothing will happen. Poor Ike—it won’t be a bit like the Army. He’ll find it very frustrating.

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:45 pm
==This is just like his BIG move in the black community during the campaign and how many votes did that get him???? Alll wishful thinking….like Obama….doesn’t understand the ways of Springfield.

I would be Oswego Willy is with me here–he knew he wasn’t getting a huge proportion of the black vote, but it’s great that he tried.

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:46 pm
==“The Speaker said there would be special subcommittees for my bills!”

Wins the thread!

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:47 pm
I believe the odds are very good that all of his bils will pass. I think many will be surprised to see how intact they will be. t’s not just the 20 million reasons it’s how ginned up average public is over “the state of Illinois”
The less that pass more fodder he has to demonize all who oppose as Rich says underestimate him at your at your risk.

Comment by Annon3 Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 12:50 pm
- Annon3 -

Campaigns are hard, governing is difficult.

Counting to 60 and 30 on these proposals, all these proposals as presented, nearly impossible to hit those marks on ALL.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 1:02 pm
Zero.

I think Rauner is a few years behind the times on all this right to work and prevailing wage stuff.

Income stagnation seems to be the issue across the country, increasingly with Republicans, too.

Where’s the grass roots movement to cut people’s pay? If they’re not buying, nobody’s selling.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 1:11 pm
1 in 4 he gets all 8

10% he gets any RTW thing passed

Comment by Todd Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 1:13 pm
Zero. But if he stopped acting like this is Indiana, he could get some serious and important stuff done–like workers comp reform in exchange for a higher minimum wage.

Comment by Illinois taxpayer Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 1:15 pm
IT, think any of that $20 million is going to be spent squeezing The Docs to take a haircut to get workers comp done?

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 1:26 pm
== Zero. But if he stopped acting like this is Indiana, he could get some serious and important stuff done–like workers comp reform in exchange for a higher minimum wage. ==

It’s still not clear to me if the extremism true believer stuff or staking out a bargaining position. If it is the latter, when and where will he pivot to the practicalities? I agree there is space to get serious and important stuff done, but he risks squandering it if he’s consistently overshooting. Also wondering if he’s surrounded himself with a staff that buys into the self-generated hype…

Comment by Toffee Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 1:35 pm
Word, he can save his slush fund money by threatening the Docs Medicaid reimbursement rates - of course it’ll be couched in the terms that it’s for the budget. Also their GOP base of support are under the big “F … problem” threat.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 1:45 pm
Hahaha. This guy is so naive. Is he listening to anyone?

Comment by Voice of Reason Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 1:57 pm
I assume he is planning on orchestrating some major campaign contributions to get these bills rolling?

Comment by Belle Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 2:19 pm
Single subject clause?

Comment by Bibe Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 2:51 pm
Odds? Right there with Illini football going to the Rose Bowl. Zip.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 3:37 pm
==- Belle - Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 2:19 pm: ==
Yes, his $20M Slush fund hammer.

Comment by Mama Monday, Feb 9, 15 @ 6:58 pm