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* Riopell…
Democrat Brad Schneider is in Washington, D.C., this week, having met with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi Tuesday about a potential third rematch run against Republican U.S. Rep. Bob Dold in 2016.
Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering is in the capital this week, too, talking to people to explore a run as a Democrat for the same seat in the north suburban 10th Congressional District.
Rotering didn’t say for sure whether she’d pursue a primary challenge to the one-term former Rep. Schneider if he decided to pursue a return to Congress. But the first-term mayor also said she’s leaning toward a run.
“We’re getting a really great response from people in the district,” Rotering said. “We are definitely leaning toward going for it.”
He’ll have higher name ID than any other foreseeable opponent, so Schneider is the heavy favorite. But, even though it seems doubtful at this point, maybe people will think he’s already had enough chances. What say you?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 1:52 pm
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The way folks up there viewed him after the last election would cause me to lean toward “he’s had his chance”. I think I’d try to look at this through the eyes of Dold, trying to decide who he’d rather face. It looks like the DCCC money will show up no matter what.
Comment by A guy Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 1:56 pm
Everyone deserves 3 chances to fail.
Comment by Rufus Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 1:56 pm
I found him underwhelming, but I don’t live there so it’s not up to me.
Comment by The Captain Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 1:57 pm
I think it’s somebody else’s turn.
Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 1:59 pm
I hear Dan Seals is available.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:00 pm
Dan Seals had his chance, too.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:03 pm
Dold, like Sen. Kirk, are going to be interesting watches up there.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:06 pm
nope, not her, not Dan, not Brad. come on 10th Dems, you can find a Roosevelt/Clinton up there.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:08 pm
Will Mayor Rotering disclose her tax returns?
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:09 pm
Mayor Rotering’s resume is impressive. My guess is that some either recruited her or talked her into exploring a run.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:11 pm
He is past his expiration date imho, but with his name recognition, the prez election in 2016 and likely DCCC support, he should run.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:16 pm
No one should underestimate Mayor Rotering. She has an impressive resume and has proven to be very effective as a campaigner.
Comment by slow down Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:19 pm
I wish other elected officials from Highland Park would consider a run.
Enough is enough.
Comment by Beans and Franks Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:26 pm
It would be nice if we had someone else to choose from besides Rich White North Shore Guy A and Rich White North Shore Guy B.
Comment by JD Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:48 pm
Brad got his one term and had his chance to impress. He clearly didn’t. He does not “get” the district and so he lost re-election. They’re crazy in D.C. if they think they want to finance another run for him. I don’t know Rotering other than seeing her name in the suburban section of the paper from time to time so I know nothing about her governing effectiveness or campaigning style.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:56 pm
=== He does not “get” the district and so he lost re-election.===
Meh.
He “got” the district in a big Democratic year. He lost a race during a big Republican year. That district is so evenly divided that he and Dold could both wind up with 10 years seniority after 20 years.
No joke.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 2:59 pm
We have an incumbent losing to a challenger, who as the incumbent during the next election, lost to the previous incumbent.
Sounds to me as if voters prefer Dold over Schneider. Time for a new challenger against Dold.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:00 pm
One of my old Congressional pals told me that IL-10 is the most evenly (partisan) split district in the country.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:10 pm
Heh, How soon is forgotten the insulting, arrogant elitist yuppie-centric ads Schneider ran. His allowing those ads on TV was proof to the district how he looked at it and felt about it and what voters he related to. Your mileage may vary, but most people up here in the 10th think it was the combo of his meh-ness as a congressperson and those ads–not the Republican year –that did Brad in.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:14 pm
1. Schneider will not run again.
2. Rotering will run.
3. Dold will win.
Comment by Just Observing Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:19 pm
If you think Brad is uninspiring, wait till you meet Nancy. Seriously an awful politician anywhere except Highland Park.
Comment by Confused Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:29 pm
Maybe Dold and Schneider should just cut a deal to give the seat to Schneider in the presidential election years and to Dold in the off years. That would save a lot of time, energy and dough.
Comment by Jaded Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:31 pm
Voters in the 10th need another choice. Both these names don’t inspire very much hope. Come on folks.. there must be another? Bueler? Bueler?
Comment by northernwatersports Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:32 pm
Who is clamoring to have Brad Schneider run again?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 3:59 pm
Dold is solidifying the 10th in a way he wasn’t able to do after the redistricting year. Rotering could wind up with less than 60% in Waukegan township once Dold is done with her. Schneider is physically unable to connect with anyone outside the North Shore.
Comment by Nica Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:24 pm
I hear Julie Morrison is considering a run.
Comment by Confused Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:27 pm
I’ve missed so many of you.
-The district is not the most even in the country-20 years ago yes, today-no-it’s more democratic than most non competitive blue states, but the kirk legacy + dold’s willingness to do things like the gun control measure he backed today have made him competitive. In the porter and kirk era tenths, this would be hard for democrats.
-the dccc tends to back former members, and rotering lacks any national or local ties-she’s not close with jan who likes to dabble her toes in the 10th. Rotering has spent a lot of time courting durbin, but because schneider is a former member he might stay out. Her only shot is with Emilys List and they’ve shown of late they’re so focused on Hillary they struggle elsewhere-see the loss in the new york mayors race in 2013 and losses nationwide in 2014 despite all that war on women stuff.
-Schneider isn’t to be underestimated. He’s grown a lot since his first bid.
-the pending Iran agreement will likely play out in this primary first and then in the general and senate races and likely to the benefit of dold and kirk. You could do 2,500 words on it, but there’s a large segment of jewish democratic voters that listen more to netanyahu than obama on Israel and if they see a republican they can stomach on abortion who shares the netanyahu line-they’ll go there, to dolds benefit and to a nasty situation for democrats.
Comment by Shore Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:33 pm
47th, you made me laugh out loud.
Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:41 pm
Responsa,
Thanks for the reminder.
I really hated the couple in those ads.
The message itself was sort of odd and incoherent (as if they sort of had an idea for the ad but nobody really thought it through), but the actors made you want to slap them making those ads so terrible.
Comment by Gooner Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:42 pm
Schneider running again wouldn’t be too new in politics. Look at Mike Sodrel v Baron Hill in Indiana and Carol Shea-Porter New Hampshire.
Comment by Howie Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:56 pm
Doesn’t your seniority reset each time you’re a new member?
Comment by Pat C Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 4:57 pm
Let’s not rule out Rahm Emanuel after April …
Comment by Gerson Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 5:13 pm
Schneider is un inspiring and she has a solid base of energetic supporters.
if she decides to run She could energize lots of Dems and the independents. She could be a strong challenge to Dold. he was unhappy to see her at AIPAC.
Comment by hockey fan Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 6:19 pm
Brad has no support within the party base in the 10th–so Nancy would beat him in a primary fairly easily. In a presidential year which features high D turnout, and the context of the ‘year of the woman’ you’d have to give Nancy at least 50/50 odds in the general.
Comment by 10th district dem Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 6:19 pm
Year of the woman? Not so much probably. Regardless, Nancy will fumble the thing away. Winning in HP most certainly doesn’t equate to winning in Lake County. She should get out and about a bit before she decides to waste a bunch of time and money. And I don’t mean AIPAC (although the thought of Nancy Rotering at AIPAC gives me the chuckles).
Comment by Confused Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 7:11 pm
Shore, long time, cousin.
I’m not so sure on your Netanyahu take in regards to American Jews in general or North Shore Jews in particular.
American Jews still vote Democratic at about a 70 percent clip. There are 27 Jews in Congress; 26 of them are Democrats.
The biggest support from American voters for Likud is among apocalyptic Christians who take a literal interpretation of the Book of Revelations (which ends pretty, pretty, pretty badly for the Jews, by the way).
Netanyahu ain’t King David; he’s just a politician in trouble back home who scored a dog-and-pony show in Congress to boost his election chances.
That show was engineered by Ambassador Dormer, a former political hack for Newt, who renounced his American citizenship to become Netanyahu’s man in DC.
Bibi’s been giving the same speech, repeatedly, on Iran’s imminent nuclear capability for more than 20 years. In fact, he gave virtually the same speech to a Joint Session of Congress in 1996.
(In 2002, he told Congress that Saddam had nukes. That helped seal the deal on the invasion of Iraq, a great victory for the theocrats in Iran, who now run the show in
Baghdad, and China, whose state-run companies take about half of Iraq’s oil production and ship it home under the protection of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, free of charge).
They might buy Bibi’s act in the GOP caucus, but they certainly don’t within the intelligence and military communities in Israel.
Read the Israeli press. There have been unprecedented leaks out of Mossad challenging Netanyahu’s story about Iran’s nuclear program. A group of nearly 200 former senior military and intelligence officials are openly opposing his national security policies.
These aren’t kumbyyah singers. They are front-line commanders of the ‘67, ‘74 and ‘83 wars who oppose Netanyahu on national security grounds.
The leader among those veterans is Meir Dagan. In between his service in those three wars, he was the most feared hit man in the world, known for “separating Arabs from their heads,” said Ariel Sharon, who made him chief of Mossad.
Dagan has stated that Netanyahu’s Iran position is a disaster to Israel’s security. Give him a google and a read.
He wants Israel to survive and flourish, not like its “friends” among the Armageddon believers in the United States.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 8:20 pm
Julie Hamos is in that district, isn’t she?
Comment by Just Me Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 8:56 pm
Anyone who says Nancy can walk off with the Democratic nomination is drinking the 10th Dems Kool-Aid. Unlike Rotering, Ilya Sheyman was able to offer a clear contrast to Brad and he lost big. Four years later, Brad has grown as a candidate and has a strong following in all corners of the district. Let’s be clear, Nancy is a Brad clone with significantly less name recognition. If Dems want to win, their best bet is with the former Congressman or a strong progressive voice to counter Bob Dold.
Comment by 10th Realist Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 9:29 pm
To add to 10th Realists’ comments:
Brad had a 86% rating with Labor, 100% with Environment, has the support of the party leaders, both in DC and Illinois, and has the name ID and campaign infrastructure. Therefore, he has both the Progressive credentials and viability.
No offense to Nancy as she is a nice person but Brad gets first right of refusal…he has earned it and, more importantly, he is our best chance to take the seat back from the “I’ll shake your hand with a smile and screw you later” Bob Dolt.
I feel like every cycle we go through this in the 10th District where people talk about wanting this or that without knowing the facts.
Comment by 10 District Fact Checker Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 9:51 pm
Don’t forget about the local Democrats in the 10th. They’re a lot more organized than you’d think, especially in a presidential year.
Look how much they’ve grown: http://tenthdems.org
Comment by sa Thursday, Mar 5, 15 @ 10:51 pm
They may be organized, but how many of them will be over the moon for Hillary and follow her to a swing state like Iowa or Wisconsin? They get so swept up in illusions of grandeur that they forget about their home turf. It will be like when we kept Kirk in 2008.
Comment by 10th Realist Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 8:37 am
I’d love to see Rotering run against Dold. She could peel off Dold’s superficial layers pretty fast. Rotering has very solid support in HP and I was surprised to realize how strong she is outside of HP. I’ve heard some former Schneider volunteers have already jumped ship - this was a month ago. Rotering should not be underestimated.
Comment by Glad one Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 9:08 am
I was a Schneider supporter (while I no longer live in the district, my parents were in it forever until the remap were moved into
, and this seat has to eventually flip to the Democrats.
I am honestly undecided. I feel loyal to Brad and really do like him, but am unsure he could win a general again. Mayor Rotering is a fresh face, but Dold could pick her apart on foreign policy for a “lack of experience.” I don’t know if she could win either, though there is a benefit if there is a certain former first lady at the top of the ticket..
If Kirk goes down (he will win 10 in any race, just a question of margins), would Dold go down too?
Lot of questions.
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 9:28 am
Rich is correct - the turnout relative to the election cycle is swinging this seat. Generic D will beat generic R in a presidential year.
P.S> Voters don’t ticket split anymore.
Comment by HappyToaster Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 9:44 am
There are many democrats in Highland Park who have not appreciated Rotering’s heavy handed leadership there. Rotering’s nomination would allow Dold to peel off some of those critical Liberal votes in HP. It really is amazing how weak of a bench there is in the 10th District.
Comment by Nica Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 9:44 am
I was a Schneider foot soldier and I have to disagree with the idea that tenth district voters don’t split their tickets. Kirk beat a D wave in ‘08, Brad hung on in a D wave in ‘12. Obviously a presidential year helps, but don’t assume it’s a clear win for a newbie like Nancy. If he runs I’ll be back on Team Brad. If he doesn’t, then let’s get Nancy over the top.
Comment by Fremont Foot Soldier Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 10:23 am
==Nancy is a Brad clone with significantly less name recognition. If Dems want to win, their best bet is with the former Congressman or a strong progressive voice to counter Bob Dold.==
== Generic D will beat generic R in a presidential year==
I continue to marvel at how uninformed some of the comments about the 10th district are. The one thing you gotta know to win and keep your job in this district is, that it’s a moderate district. It’s not a Dem or Repub or Progressive or Conservative electorate. It is moderate, and whether the candidate has a D or an R after their name is almost immaterial. Because, when the shouting’s over and the ads are viewed, and the speeches are done, whichever candidate has already demonstrated he is, or is perceived by the majority of voters to be, the one who will be the most responsive to the district’s issues and the least beholden to their own party’s idealogues they will be elected from the 10th. The candidate who first convinces- and then proves by actually doing it– that he will vote the district, not strictly toe the line of his party’s DC leadership, will almost always win here. It’s not that hard a concept. Really.
Comment by Responsa Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 10:50 am
I suppose agree with you Responsa, but I’ll add that Bob Dold is not a moderate. He may be working on that model now (guns, healthcare, immigration, etc), but in his last stint in Congress he did nothing but toe the party line. He just did a better job playing the role of moderate.
Comment by 10th Realist Friday, Mar 6, 15 @ 12:04 pm
I like Nancy. But Brad deserves another chance to run. He’s got national backing and has run two credible races.
Comment by Brad supporter Monday, Mar 9, 15 @ 4:22 pm