Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Today’s number: $1.9 billion

Posted in:

Illinois

The state of Illinois will have about $1.9 billion less revenue to work with in the next budget than it had this year, the General Assembly’s fiscal forecasting arm said Tuesday. […]

Although there have been times of significant differences between revenue estimates from COGFA and the governor’s office, that isn’t the case so far. COGFA said its estimate is only about $90 million higher than the governor’s office, a difference it called “quite minimal.”

COGFA revenue manager Jim Muschinske warned that could change since Rauner’s budget may overestimate the amount of federal assistance coming into the state.

“That may prove to be too optimistic,” Muschinske said of the governor’s office estimate.

Another Rauner budget hole?

I’m so surprised.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 9:51 am

Comments

Exactly what you want to hear in the middle of a budget crisis. This keeps getting better. Sheesh.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 9:58 am
Well, another shortfall. Shocking. What poor sap is going to take it in the shorts this time? And if Rauners history is used, literally it will be some poor sap. Certainly the ‘job creators’ can’t be expected to share in the sacrifice.

Comment by How Ironic Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:01 am
When you consider that COGFA has to be responsive to four different caucuses and 177 different members’ interests they do a remarkable job of forecasting an analysis and probably don’t get enough credit.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:04 am
Maybe governmental experience might be useful about now.

At some point, and its will happen, the Four Tops will sit with the Governor, and like a final exam, the numbers better “work”.

Bet the governor’s office is wondering “Why did we do the Thompson Pivot again?”

If the Thompson Pivot was to help Ms. Arduin cut deeper and deeper…and deeper, how much ILGOP political damage is enough for Bruce Rauner?

These revelations should terrify ILGOP GA members. Rauner thinks very little of the Legislature, and even less of his Bullied Caucuses.

But the Owl Sandack thinks Wisconsin is swell, so there’s that…

It’s not just you, Gov. Rauner. You are damaging the ILGOP and the GOP Caucuses with your lack of understanding, and when you “fix” more problems like this, it’s the Caucus members you bullied that WILL take the arrow, that’s called your stewardship.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:07 am
Biggest surprise so far is that the numbers are so close.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:07 am
Do you think Rauner might try to dump the state off on that guy in the nursing home who shielded him from past business liabilities?
Rauner bought the state. Can’t he sell it?

Comment by Truthteller Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:07 am
===Biggest surprise so far is that the numbers are so close.===

Is that snark?

That’s billion, with a “B”… and it’s nearly 2 of them in unrealized revenues..,

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:10 am
==Although there have been times of significant differences between revenue estimates from COGFA and the governor’s office, that isn’t the case so far.==

Though that is a good thing. So far.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:14 am
This year Rauner gave those getting State dollars the first taste of what its going to take for Illinois to start living within its means. He’ll likely stay on that course. If MJM and Pinky want another income tax increase above the 25% they have now over previous 3% flat rate, they can submit the bill, pass the bill and override the veto. They have the power to raise taxes if they wish, their just too cowardly politically to take the heat for what they want to do to screw the Illinois taxpayers while keeping their political base feeding well at the state trough.

Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:15 am
This is a huge difference and I’m not clear on why given the relative health of the Illinois economy.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:17 am
Well after Rauner won the election he requested that the legislature let the tax increase expire so that he could have a hand in fixing the problem after he was sworn in. The Democrats accommodated him with a smile.

Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:17 am
The Federal share of our State Revenue fell from a high of 33.9% in FY2010 to 25.95 in FY2013. Three years of declines.

Our average Federal share since FY 2000 is 27.5% (since FY2000).

So, if we have an optimistic projection of the Fed share of our State Revenue then it would be down near 23% (like Connecticut 23.4% or Hawaii 23.2%) of our budget … or … on the other hand if its climbing up to around 32% of our budget then we’ll join states like Arkansas (32.7%) or Alabama (35.5%) in our dependence on the US Treasury.

Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, State Trends and Analysis

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:18 am
No worries. Just roll it into the proposed pension “savings.” Or the “corruption, fraud and abuse” savings.

If you’re making it up, what’s the difference?

Actually, given Rauner’s rhetoric, I’m surprised that his “corruption, fraud and abuse” fund is so light. At $200 million in “operations savings,” that’s a rounding error in a $32 billion spending plan.

Rauner must think Quinn ran a tight ship.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:18 am
=== If MJM and Pinky want another income tax increase above the 25% they have now over previous 3% flat rate, they can submit the bill, pass the bill and override the veto. They have the power to raise taxes if they wish, their just too cowardly politically to take the heat for what they want to do to screw the Illinois taxpayers while keeping their political base feeding well at the state trough.===

And you wonder why you weren’t supported in a run for the General Assembly, and you take it personally to boot.

It’s Rauner’s now. Rauner is the governor.

Further, MJM and Cullerton are going to inflict maximum damage by slow playing all of this, and requiring the Caucuses of Rauner to carry a full load of GOP votes.

That’s Caucus governing in divided government.

Seriously, - Arizona Bob -, if this is too hard for you to understand how this part of the legislative processes work, they did you a solid keeping you away from all this.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:22 am
I doubt if the Democrats will push the tax increase through without GOP support Bob. If there is no tax increase there will be a lot of suffering and Rauner will be the one who takes the heat for it if he runs for reelection.
I think the talk about increasing revenue will heat up once the Supreme Court rules on the legality of the Pension Reform bill.

Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:24 am
- Truthteller - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:07 am:
Do you think Rauner might try to dump the state off on that guy in the nursing home who shielded him from past business liabilities? Rauner bought the state. Can’t he sell it?

Why not? Just like Gordon Gecko. He could sell off the Quad Cities to Iowa. Chicago could go to Wisconsin or Indiana, etc. New revenue for the State!

Comment by Skeptical Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:29 am
These are forecasts of future revenues. Delighted the two are so close. That means neither are playing games. It also means Rauner crew hasn’t bought into the AFP/IPI/Laffer nonsense that lower taxes will automatically accelerate economic growth and increase taxes received, in this time frame. COGFA continues its history of credibility, and Ranuer crew is right there with them on this.

Of course the actual number that occurs will probably be slightly off both forecasts.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:30 am
And QP and the legislature agreed on the revenue streams?

It’s like a junkie going cold turkey. The State has spent decades spending money it did not have, used questionable accounting to pretend the budget was balanced and most recently passed a budget that did not have enough money to make it to the end of the year. The fault is on the heads of those who have voted for each of those deceptive budgets.

The current tax rate is 25% higher than it was before the temporary tax went into effect. Clearly the fiscal problem is still there. The best progress can be made by growing the economy.. Ideas?

The contraction in public spending has horrible consequences. We should thank our former governors and current and former legislators for the mess we are in.

Comment by plutocrat03 Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:33 am
=== Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:10 am:

===Biggest surprise so far is that the numbers are so close.===

Is that snark?

That’s billion, with a “B”… and it’s nearly 2 of them in unrealized revenues..,===

I’ll assume you misread this and refrain from criticism.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:36 am
AB: It seems that you comfortably choose to ignore the fact that if Rauner does “stay on that course,” as you suggest, he will still be short $3B with his own proposed budget including all its cuts. What then will he ask for?

Comment by walker Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:37 am
OW- the CGFA report is not saying that their revenue forecast is billions off from the Governors forecast. They are saying revenue will decline 2 billion from FY 15 to FY 16, exactly what the Governor’s office is saying.

And Anonymous, FY 10 federal resources are really a very poor benchmark to measure against. At that time, the State was receiving billions of dollars of stimulus funds. And FY 13 was the first year that the SMART act was implemented, reducing Medicaid liability and thus reducing FEderal Financial Participation, so again, not really another great point of comparison.

Comment by Juice Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:37 am
===I’ll assume you misread this and refrain from criticism.===

Nope.

They both are in the “neighborhood” of $1.9 Billion, with a “B” in the shortfall, and you’re “bright side” is that they are…close?

They are only “close” if Rauner’s budget was actually “real” and it’s “only” $1.9 billion short.

You want to say the governor’s budget, as it sits, is true to its numbers?

…

But you’re excited they are close on being $1.9 billion short…based on a fairy tale…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:41 am
“They have the power to raise taxes if they wish, their just too cowardly politically to take the heat for what they want to do”

It’s really weird that you didn’t notice that MJM and Cullerton have both proposed raising revenue. They even passed a bill doing so just a few years ago!

…and the fact that you didn’t notice this kinda gives away the game on the whole “cowardly” thing. Governors own budget problems, not legislators.

“The State has spent decades spending money it did not have, used questionable accounting to pretend the budget was balanced”

And it will continue to do so under Rauner’s proposed budget…

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:41 am
Guy, historically COGFA and GOMB have not been that far apart on revenue numbers, except perhaps during Blago times when GOMB was always higher (and wrong) by a couple percent iirc.

I don’t get your point.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:44 am
ABob: “their just too cowardly politically to take the heat” Rauner said he would “take arrows”, if that’s the solution, why doesn’t he propose it? Or one of the GOP? Or are they cowards too?

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:45 am
Bob

Once again you demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of the political realities in Illinois now. Nothing will get done without Republican support. They control the Governor’s office now. They will have to have skin in the game.

==If MJM and Pinky ==

And stop with the moronic Pinky thing. Dope.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 10:59 am
==Governors own budget problems, not legislators.==

They do. They also own the bully pulpit. And we can already see where this story is heading in May:

==The governor wants to fix things with difficult budget cuts after many years of reckless budgeting. He is the adult in the room, here to clean up the mess Madigan and Cullerton created, which is why you elected him. But the ILGA is obstructing him. They prefer taking more money from your family in taxes and more business as usual.==

Right or wrong, that is how Rauner expects most people will see this after the stories fade about who these cuts affect. Dems, obviously, expect people to see it the opposite way. Preferably, they all find a compromise instead of pushing ==my party== or ==I win==.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:02 am
Artie, as stated in the post up top, it’s an anomaly as of late that they are this close. That’s not to set aside the seriousness of $1.9B less in revenue that Willy is talking about. In the past several years, we could never even get a straight number on revenue on any side of the ledger. There’s a hint of optimism that COGFA and the Governor are operating on the same or similar ledger.

Only a couple of days ago the Senate President reiterated yet again that our pension system is NOT in crisis. I’m not sure what constitutes a crisis to him, but I sure know I wouldn’t want to experience it.

These numbers are targets. There’s still some disagreement on some of these numbers, but seeing agreement and firming up is a positive step. Right?

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:08 am
FKA, c’mon man. Rauner’s proposed budget isn’t even a starting point. It’s at least $3 billion, 10 percent, out of whack, even with proposed cuts.

It was a term paper done on the bus in crayon to meet the due date. Do-over.

The budgeting process hasn’t even started yet.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:09 am
“They do. They also own the bully pulpit. And we can already see where this story is heading in May:”

Heading in May? Heck, that’s the Pro-Rauner line RIGHT NOW.

But my point is, it was the Pro-PQ line, too. And look who got sent home.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:12 am
- A Guy -

===COGFA revenue manager Jim Muschinske warned that could change since Rauner’s budget may overestimate the amount of federal assistance coming into the state.

“That may prove to be too optimistic,” Muschinske said of the governor’s office estimate.===

The fairy tale budget is counting on things, consistently, that may be overreaches or plain wishes that might not work when the Four Tops and Rauner get into the realities.

They are “only” $1.9 billion in the shortfall, and “close” on that given what Rauner’s possibly too over optimistic federal funding.

I should be relieved they are “close”? It’s “only” $1.9 billion if that fairy tale is a happy ending true story.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:15 am
Arsenal - and it’s a good point. That is also the Rauner line yesterday, today and tomorrow. While there are some notable differences between the PQ - BR situation, namely BR having an extra 3 years to frame the debate before election, generally they do wind up owning the budgets they sign.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:34 am
Yippee, we have virtual agreement on how much money the State will NOT have to spend. That makes solutions to the problem so much easier.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:35 am
Wordslinger - I don’t care if they draw the final 2015 and 2016 budgets up on the bus, in the Stratton cafeteria, or on the moon as long as they get it done well. I do care that they not let their egos suck them into the ==my party== and ==I win== bunker ahead of compromising for the state.

So far, all we have is one plan ==done on the bus in crayon== vs a blank sheet of paper and ==No== for 2016. That is normal.

Unfortunately, that is also all we have so far for fixing 2015. That is not normal. Maybe I am jumping the gun, but they need to get together on this stuff soon.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:39 am
@Arsenal

=It’s really weird that you didn’t notice that MJM and Cullerton have both proposed raising revenue. They even passed a bill doing so just a few years ago!

…and the fact that you didn’t notice this kinda gives away the game on the whole “cowardly” thing. Governors own budget problems, not legislators=

Fine. What Bill do they have in the hopper now to raise taxes sufficiently to cover the budget shortfall? NONE? Passing a bill a few years ago doesn’t cut the mustard today.

If they want a return to the 5% flat income tax rate, fine. Let them propose it and explain why they need so much.

Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 11:55 am
@Dem

= Nothing will get done without Republican support. They control the Governor’s office now. They will have to have skin in the game.=

So the GOP controls one of the three institutions. I agree that they need “skin in the game” to get an equitable solution. To date, I haven’t heard “Pinky” Cullerton or MJM propose an comprehensive solution. They’ve only criticized Rauner and created animosity. Not smart if they’re looking for common ground, wouldn’t you agree?

“Pinky” bothers you? Thanks for the ammo! I’ll stay with that when you keep up your personal insults.

Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:01 pm
- Arizona Bob -,

Your utter cluelessness is only trumped by you doubling-down on it.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:03 pm
=Rauner’s budget may overestimate the amount of federal assistance coming into the state.=

Yes, especially things like Medicaid or federal matching funds for highways and other things that are based on state spending. Many times, unused federal matching funds end up going to some other state. Our surrounding states will be delighted when extra federal money becomes available for their needs.

Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:05 pm
@ skeptic

=ABob: “their just too cowardly politically to take the heat” Rauner said he would “take arrows”, if that’s the solution, why doesn’t he propose it? Or one of the GOP? Or are they cowards too?=

That ISN’T the long term solution, and it’s been found after 2011 that temporary solutions to allow for spending transition simply doesn’t work in the Illinois political culture. The GOP were elected NOT to increase taxes, so expecting them to do it is, of course, a non-starter. Are they afraid of backlash from constituents who would consider raising taxes a betrayal? YOU BET!

Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:05 pm
=== The GOP were elected NOT to increase taxes, so expecting them to do it is, of course, a non-starter. Are they afraid of backlash from constituents who would consider raising taxes a betrayal? YOU BET! ===

We will keep these words in mind as we watch the Governor propose an honestly balanced budget and propose annual capital plans. Since he won’t get the $2B in savings he projects from his pension scheme, and since there is no excess revenue lying around for new capital projects, BR will need an actual revenue source, not smoke and mirrors about projected savings by reducing WF&A (waste, fraud and abuse). When that day comes, I look forward to AZ Bob denouncing the GOP for their betrayal.

Comment by anon Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:38 pm
walker
Apparently tax cuts accelerate growth only when Republicans enact them.

Comment by anon Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:38 pm
Maybe we should set tax rates closer to the state income taxes in Arizona.

Arizona collects income taxes from its residents at the following rates.

For single and married taxpayers filing separately:

2.59 percent on the first $10,000 of taxable income.
2.88 percent on taxable income between $10,001 and $25,000.
3.36 percent on taxable income between $25,001 and $50,000.
4.24 percent on taxable income between $50,001 and $150,000.
4.54 percent on all taxable income more than $150,000.

Comment by Enviro Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:52 pm
The problem with state income tax rates in arizona is that they don’t have enough money to fund their education programs.

“Arizona’s per-pupil spending has fallen 17.5 percent since 2008, the third-deepest rate of K-12 education cuts in the nation, according to a report released this week.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities report said most states saw a drop in per-student spending from the start of the recession to the current fiscal year, but Arizona was one of the few above 15 percent.

Arizona trailed only Oklahoma, at 23.5 percent, and Alabama’s 17.8 percent drop.”

Comment by Enviro Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 12:55 pm
==That ISN’T the long term solution==

Any increase in taxes that they manage to pass better be long term. What we’ve learned is that temporary doesn’t work.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 1:00 pm
==They’ve only criticized Rauner and created animosity.==

Umm, I think Rauner has thrown plenty of bombs as well. I hear a LOT of criticism coming from his mouth. So, basically what we have is lots of criticism coming from everyone and zero real solutions.

==I’ll stay with that when you keep up your personal insults.==

Oh grow up.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 1:02 pm
== haven’t heard “Pinky” Cullerton or MJM propose an comprehensive solution. ==

I know I don’t have to point this out to you but the Governor hasn’t proposed one either. He wanted to be Governor I’m assuming so he could do things. Now you want him to sit on his hands and wait for the other guy to propose something? Y’all have to get over this victim mentality that drives these excuses that the Democrats control things. That game ended. It’s the Governor’s game now. Sure the Democrats still control the GA. But, the Governor is being given the drivers seat for now. He either sits in it or he doesn’t. It’s his call.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Mar 11, 15 @ 1:10 pm