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Election timeline and a look ahead

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* I posted much of this same info yesterday, but it may have been lost in the commotion…

Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner must call a special [election] within five days after Schock’s resignation becomes official on March 31, according to state law, and [the general election] must be held no later than 115 days from the call.

Rauner has leeway to decide the dates of the election within that time frame. In the last House special in Illinois, to replace Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr., the congressman resigned Nov. 21, 2012, the primaries were held three months later on Feb. 26 and Democrat Robin Kelly won the seat on April 9.

There are also federal laws about providing enough time for military mail-in ballots. I think that’s 45 days. So, they can’t piggyback the primary on the municipal elections. Both the primary and the general will be stand-alone, very low-turnout elections.

…Adding… The potential cost…

The special election to replace the Peoria Republican in the state’s 18th Congressional District could exceed $150,000, election officials said.

Peoria County Steve Sonnemaker estimated the cost for a primary and general election to be between $75,000 and $80,000.

“If Steve said it was $75,000 to $80,000 for the county’s part, I would say that the total cost is probably double that for both elections,” Tom Bride, the executive director of the Peoria Election Commission, told the Peoria Journal Star.

* DKos has the Romney numbers and is correct about the real action in this race…

Romney won this Downstate Illinois seat, which includes Quincy and parts of Peoria and Springfield, by a 61-37 margin, so all the action will be in the GOP primary.

Yep. And keep in mind that was a presidential year. Bruce Rauner undoubtedly won it by a whole lot more in his off-year race. And turnout will be even lower in a special. It’ll be a race to the right in the primary and a hopeless task for a Democrat.

Any talk or even idle speculation of an established Democrat running for this seat is just nuts. Either that, or the wannabe is nuts. Only a miracle could elect a Democrat in a special election in the strongest Republican district in the entire state. An established Democrat would lose a whole lot of credibility by being wiped out in the general.

* Getting back to the GOP primary, Sen. Darin LaHood appears to be gaining quite a bit of strength as others bow out. LaHood has reportedly been quietly plotting this move for a while now, figuring that Schock wouldn’t survive. He may need to raise a bunch of money in a big hurry to scare everyone else off, particularly former state Rep. and 2014 lt. governor candidate Jil Tracy of Quincy.

Tracy has serious family money that she can tap. She also has family in other parts of that district, including Springfield. And her 2014 statewide primary bid helped her develop contacts with party leaders.

If Tracy decides to take the plunge, she could give LaHood a real contest.

…Adding… From a prescient commenter…

Am I the only one who thinks, if played correctly by the right candidate, that the LaHood family connection to President Obama could be a factor in this race?

I’m guessing that to the kind of Republicans who will be voting in this race, Ray LaHood’s Cabinet duty for the Obama White House sticks much more prominently in their mind than his years of honorable service in Congress.

That commenter could well be right. If Tracy or whomever successfully somehow “reminds” hardcore Republican primary voters about the father’s close ties to Obama, it could definitely hurt the son.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 10:21 am

Comments

If Rauner wants LaHood, he needs to get as early a date as possible.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 10:25 am
Make it a three way run a democrat as a republican can win with crossover votes if you can’t beat them join them.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 10:40 am
Anonymous, try not to be a doofus.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 10:41 am
Jil Tracy is a phenomenal individual and a class-act lawmaker. She is someone who has certainly paid her dues to Illinois, herself. That being said, and all of this talk of LaHood just kind of ‘taking the seat,’ is silly. She deserves due diligence.

Comment by My FiNgErS HuRt Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 10:46 am
Durbin lost this district to Oberweis 62-35, Madigan lost this district to Schimpf 53-44, even Jesse White only won it 53-44 so this district isn’t going to a Democrat.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 10:50 am
====The special election to replace the Peoria Republican in the state’s 18th Congressional District could exceed $150,000, election officials said.====

Tragically, this looks like a small number compared to the savings on travel and expenses currently in place. Oy.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 10:57 am
Cui bono? LaHood, certainly, is one.

He sure was ready to go yesterday.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 10:59 am
The real concern is Lahoods current seat if he gets shock’s seat, it is widely know that Peoria Mayor Jim Ardis thinks he is entitled to the seat…..lets hope he is not successful. Ardis has done some very unethical things in his time as Mayor, abuse of police power, twittergate, hope good candidates come forward

Comment by Charles Wilkins Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:01 am
“Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner must call a special [election] within five days after Schock’s resignation becomes official on March 31, according to state law, and [the general election] must be held no later than 115 days from the call.”

Can they change state law before he resigns and have it be effective?

Comment by Timmeh Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:07 am
Maybe the costs should be borne by Schock and his large campaign fund. He is not going to need it unless for legal expenses if he gets indicted.
Would be a great give back present from the arrogant one.

Comment by Roscoe Tom Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:08 am
What happens to the Schock campaign funds, PACs etc? I assume he still gets to hand it out? Is anybody going to take it? Or is it given to a third, cleaner, entity to redistribute per Schock’s desires?

Comment by SGrand Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:15 am
It’s LaHood’s to consolidate.

I thought it would be 5-6 out there, including Tracy and LaHood but it could boil down to just those two.

Rauner “has to” be with LaHood. The politics of his current position almost demand it; get to “assist” (engineer) another GA appointment. Jil Tracy has no such sweetener.

Please, no Jim Ardis to the SGOP. That woukd be…disaster.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:20 am
Doesn’t anybody remember Gov. Kirk Dillard’s presidential endorsement?? I see a lot of LaHood and President Obama standing shoulder to shoulder for democracy in this primary.

Comment by northshore cynic Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:23 am
There is no way this election will be anything less than a million dollars. The last two congressionals were and they covered fewer counties.

Comment by Tom B. Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:29 am
Rauner is also connected to Jil. He appointed her bro-in-law, Spi Atty Don Tracy to head Gaming Board. And she would not leave a hole to fill in Senate.

Comment by D.P.Gumby Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:37 am
Rauner should stay out of it. Assume Kirk will back a LaHood as will any dc type with a pulse.

Hope the right revs up and goes RINO hunting here. Big opportunity for them.

Comment by Shore Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:49 am
===Hope the right revs up and goes RINO hunting here.===

Anyone who thinks the son has the same politics as the father has never met the son.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:51 am
===Rauner should stay out of it.===

He won’t. He can’t NOT be “involved”. The politics demand it. It would be malpractice if he wasn’t.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 11:55 am
1. I hate the term RINO. Dems don’t call each other “DINOs”. I’ve never heard Brandon Phelps or Jerry Costello referred to as DINO.

2. There’s no way that Governor Rauner stays out of this election.

3. Willy - but wouldn’t a Jim Ardis appointment at least provide some comedic relief when he was confronted by his first throng of reporters?! It would be like watching Bambi try to figure out why there’s a hunter in the woods.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 12:06 pm
===…wouldn’t a Jim Ardis appointment at least provide some comedic relief when he was confronted by his first throng of reporters?! It would be like watching Bambi try to figure out why there’s a hunter in the woods.===

The comedy that would ensue would be gold.

Never has a Dope been chided for their own overreactions, that they became more of a joke then the jokes themselves.

I’d hate to reward such a person with an appointed seat in the General Assembly, Fter swearing to uphold the both Constitutions, with a recent history of running roughshod over the 1st Admendment.

…but I like the comedy angle…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 12:12 pm
Don’t know yet if it will affect my vote in the end, but the first thought that went through my head when I heard the name LaHood was that the old man took a job with Obama. I imagine many, many others had the same first negative reaction. If it were any other Democrat administration, then not so much a problem, but an Obama association seems potentially toxic to the LaHood brand.

Comment by Skirmisher Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 12:33 pm
Rumor has it that Peoria Councilman Chuck Weaver would be interested in LaHood’s vacant state senate seat.

Comment by lou brock Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 1:08 pm
Rich, you began this comment period discussing a commenter’s concern that Darin LaHood might be hurt by his father’s service in the Obama Cabinet. I don’t think it will hurt Senator LaHood for two reasons.

First, Darin LaHood is his own man. He has his own record and his own style, both of which are exemplary. Anyone who knows or has worked with both men understands they are two different people and Darin LaHood can stand on his own.

Second, notwithstanding animosity toward President Obama in the Congressional District, there is still great admiration and respect for Ray LaHood. He was a terrific public servant and worked very hard for his community and his district. Ray LaHood’s service to the President and to his country as Secretary of Transportation should not damage Ray LaHood’s reputation or hurt his son’s chances for winning this seat.

This district includes Menard County where I live. The race could be quite interesting and there could certainly be other good candidates who run for this seat. The names being mentioned are all good people. I just think the race’s outcome will be determined by the record and case presented by the candidates and not by family lineage.

Comment by Al Grosboll Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 1:16 pm
Darrin Lahood wasn’t bottle fed by Bob Michel.

He and his father are light years apart.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 1:34 pm
Would the math dictate that the election would need to be on or before July 30? About the time things get interesting with AFSCME contracts and Illinois State employees.

Comment by New Guy Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 5:00 pm
Relative to Darin Lahood’s replacement, should he win … anyone here know Ardis & wife KICKED OUT of Peoria County Republican Women’s organization? All it takes is a few phone calls to confirm. ‘A’ replacing Lahood in State Senate by appointment/election? Proability -’0′

Comment by Conusone Wednesday, Mar 18, 15 @ 5:53 pm