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* The 15 and 16 numbers in this tweet refer to fiscal years…
Radogno says getting 100% of GOP or Dem votes on budgets for 15 or 16 is "unrealistic" but the roll call will be bipartisan
— Tony Arnold (@tonyjarnold) March 23, 2015
There’s been a lot of tough talk under the Dome about how the Republicans are going to have to put all 20 of their members on a Fiscal Year 2015 budget fix. Maybe they’ll get a break, some say. and only have to put on 19. The Democrats correctly say the Republicans refused to cooperate on the budget for years and Rauner demanded that the GA not extend the income tax hike, so now the GOP is gonna have to carry the proportionate load.
The Republicans, understandably, want the structured roll call to be more even-Steven. And by that, I don’t mean that half the Democratic caucus would have to be for it (which would require at least 19 Senate Democratic votes), but that the partisan split would be closer to 15-15. After all, it was a Democratic budget that got us into this current mess, they rightfully say, and many of the fixes would benefit primarily Democratic constituencies (like child care funding, which the Democrats intentionally shorted last year). They’re willing to put up a higher caucus proportion than the Dems, but the overall numbers need to be more equal.
* The Question: Should the Republicans carry a vastly higher structured roll call burden or should the FY 15 vote be more even-Steven? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:27 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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You break it, you own it.
Comment by Nick Naylor Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:29 pm
Brucie’s their baby…they have to own him.
Comment by D.P.Gumby Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:30 pm
Kind of with Nick a bit on this…
Also it isn’t like Rauner is going to be wearing a huge coat for this anyway.
Comment by OneMan Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:30 pm
Not vastly higher, but higher still. Sets the tone for the turnaround agenda. If they can’t put the votes on this, how are they gonna put the votes on an FY16 budget? Small potatoes.
Vote for something. When’s the last time they voted for a budget bill that became law? 12 years or something that? Its time.
Comment by Corporate Thug Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:35 pm
I voted even-steven even though I agree with Nick and OneMan personally. But also personally I don’t want to have to spend anymore time in Springfield than I have to. And I think some of the Sen Repubs will just never do it while the Sen Dems can easily find a few more after a couple of initial slap downs.
Comment by Been There Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:35 pm
Hey Republicans start doing your job now and stopping being the party of No.
Comment by union leader Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:35 pm
I don’t subscribe to the “u broke it, you fix it”
Many of these GOP lawmakers haven’t voted yes on any budget bill in the better part of a decade. They finally have an opportunity to cast a meaningful vote for a solution…I think they should do so.
Comment by Get a Job! Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:36 pm
Blame Bush
Comment by Empty Suit Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:40 pm
Voted “Carry more”
“Why?”
I don’t want my 20 ILGOP GA members “to have a &$@% problem!”
The real reason I voted like I did?
I don’t want Rauner to saddle My Party’s GA members. I absolutely do NOT.
However, if they are all, indeed, forced, at least one time, to understand the utter damage Rauner is inflicting, there is no better way than the “green lights” once going on for all 20 and witness the blowback the “Rauner Agenda” has with one tough vote, required, by them all.
I want the GOP Caucuses to strive and thrive, but more importantly, survive.
Rauner, personally, made the 67 GOP members pawns. It’s up to the 67 GOP members to cause the blowback to Rauner, to stave off the damage.
If they don’t, if they roll over, if they all become Ron Sandack and just give up, maybe seeing those “green lights” but once might be enough.
Cullerton is using smart politics, you can’t blame him one bit. Cullerton is also telling the ILGOP GA;
“If you give up your independence, I’m going to bury you on your servitude.”
Cullerton talked past the ILGOP GA, remember, telling Rauner to put GOP votes on his work. Cullerton told that to Rauner, all but ignoring the ILGOP GA.
No respect for the ILGOP GA by Rauner, none by Cullerton too.
Voted “more…”, at least once, to hopefully teach the SGOP that independence is earned, not given. Earn it back. For your own sake. Otherwise, Cullerton will demand, rightly so for 20 GOP votes, and Rauner will oblige, or there will be a …”problem”.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:40 pm
So for years, the GOP has stood for “NO”. Now that they have the opportunity to lead and govern…they want ‘halvsies’?
Sorry, you got the big chair at the table now. Show us how it’s done!
Comment by How Ironic Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:40 pm
More even political sacrifice across the aisle. The 2015 funding gap is mostly on the Dems, and so they should carry at least equal weight.
For the 2016 vote, there should clearly be more Republican votes proportionately, but to demand 100% would just lead to months of delay.
Comment by walker Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:41 pm
This basically comes down to politics or policy… politics says GOP should carry a heavy load, policy says even-Steven.
I’m voting policy… Dems shouldn’t all of a sudden not do the right thing because another guy is in power (though clearly that plays a role).
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:42 pm
I wish we were given the option of: a) 19 or 20 b) 17-18 c) 15-16 d) 13-14
I’d vote that the GOP needs to put 17-18 votes on it.
Comment by A modest proposal Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:43 pm
–The Democrats correctly say the Republicans refused to cooperate on the budget for years–
That’s true, although there is some question as to how much the Democrats were actually willing to cooperate as well. Cooperation isn’t just lying down and going with what the majority says.
I voted even-steven, the Democrats have a super-majority in both chambers they need to stop winning about roll calls and be part of the solution. Even if it’s even steven they only need to put on a minority of their members.
Comment by Ahoy! Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:44 pm
I’d love to force Radogno to put up 19 votes, but let’s face it, that’s not going to happen. If she tried, she’d sooner be “former Leader Radogno.” Plus, as Walker points out, that would take an awful lot of time to secure that many SGOP votes.
Even-Stephen is how I voted, not because it’s right or fair, but because it’s doable. Cullerton is realistic. If he can get 15 SGOPs, he won’t hesitate to find 15 Democrats to vote for it. Things might get trickier if he needs 36 though, and 18 might be a bridge too far for the SGOPs.
Let’s just hope they get it done without unnecessary pain and drama.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:47 pm
if republicans are not going to whole-heartedly support rauner’s budget, i don’t know why they should expect any support from democrats. just as i would expect democrats to whole-heartedly support their leaders’ budget. now a budget that was negotiated and agreed to by the leaders and the governor? that would be different…
Comment by bored now Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:49 pm
Here’s an idea- how about everyone vote for a good budget and against bad ones? Yeh, I know it’s naïve, but this is what’s wrong with Springfield, everyone is more worried about their butts than mine! FIX IT DARNIT!
Comment by Anon Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:52 pm
“Rauner demanded that the GA not extend the income tax hike”
It’s your party, now. Cry if you want to.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:52 pm
Just being Even-Steven requires the GOP to carry a more proportional load (as the post points out)
It would seem to me, for at least the FY15 budget, it would be good strategy for the Dems to put as many votes on a fix as the other side. If they don’t, and there’s any success in the process at all, they will be viewed as having to be dragged into responsible government.
There’s a downside to playing the game so many here seem to favor.
Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:52 pm
===There’s a downside to playing the game so many here seem to favor.===
To Rauner and the ILGOP GA, there is a huge downside, but…
…that’s Caucus politics, something Rauner doesn’t mind undermining for the ILGOP GA, so why shouldn’t Cullerton or MJM run it like that?
Elections. Have. Consequences.
Yiu give up your free thinking like an Owl, then all the Sandacks get to feel the damage. And there’s gonna be damage to the ILGOP GA, the leaders know it too.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:56 pm
Both sides should do WHATEVER it takes to get this FY 15 deal done now! There are real people/families/children tied to this train wreck, and for once, we should put politics aside and solve this problem!
Comment by Interested Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:57 pm
===how about everyone vote for a good budget and against bad ones===
C’mon. Are you that simple minded that you think there are “good” vs. “bad” budgets? Individuals have so many different perceptions about what is good and what is bad that you can’t possibly be serious about that statement.
You need to find another place to post comments. Or grow up.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:58 pm
===Both sides should do WHATEVER it takes to get this FY 15 deal done now===
Well, one option for doing “whatever it takes” would be to cut the programs you prefer.
Careful what you wish for.
And you, too, should find another place to post comments.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:59 pm
I am not simple minded thank you. I also admitted that it was naïve. What I don’t think is naïve is expecting, no demanding, more from our politicians. Perhaps I didn’t express my frustration with the typical Shakespearean levels normally found on this forum. I deeply apologize for my inadequacy.
Comment by Anon Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:05 pm
Capt Fax must be forgettin’ BVR keeps tellin’ anyone who will listen that he has all the GOPies in his tank — so all he needs is 14 House Ds and 10 Senate Ds. And most a guessin’ that about all he will get.
Comment by anonin' Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:06 pm
===I deeply apologize for my inadequacy.===
Doubt you even fully comprehend it.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:09 pm
It isn’t about blame sharing!
It is about credibility.
After a decade, ILGOP needs to demonstrate that they are ready to take accountability. They need to pull together to prove to Illinoisans that they are a real alternative to ILDEM.
If they don’t, then they don’t deserve to receive any real status as big league state leaders.
Everyone knows the Democrats crashed the car while the Republicans watched. So, whatever the vote is for the 2015 budget, what matters is getting things fixed. A temporary tax or a new services tax in order to do that is understandable except to ideologues, whom you cannot please often anyway, so write them off. You have two years to get them back on board - are these purists going to vote Democratic?
Get the job done and demonstrate some maturity. That means demonstrating that they are capable of focusing beyond short term politics.
It is good for them to demonstrate their ability to lift - when they act like a bunch of babies, they will look like a bunch of babies.
Make it work.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:10 pm
If Rauner’s willing to put his money where their mouths are, I say the GOP should pull the heavier load.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:13 pm
To add, why do I get the feeling that had Quinn won the election, Leader Randango wouldn’t be offering up ANY GOP votes? Why in the world would she expect the DEMS to carry Rauners water now?
Comment by How Ironic Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:28 pm
The ship is sinking. I voted for the “Even Steven” approach.
For a very simple reason: We’ve got to find some hope someplace. Right now it’s still all political gamesmanship.
But we have to realize something. Up to now, we’ve been playing this game with political types on all sides. It’s different this time - Bruce Rauner is a business (Private Equity) type. Rauner looks at this stuff differently.
Program cuts/reductions/hard fiscal decisions don’t scare him. You can scream at the top of your lungs that what he represents is all bad and evil (etc., etc…..), but if the legislature can’t come together on a deal for the current budget issues, there’s not just going to be program cuts, but probably programs suspensions because there’s NO money.
The easiest way to solve this budget shortfall for current fiscal year is real simple - do an ‘even steven” approach. Because remember, we’re also running out of time.
And the pols on both sides of the aisle (if they keep this dysfunctional working environment up) have the potential to make Rauner look like the grownup in the room.
Just sayin.
Comment by Judgment Day Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:28 pm
Sen R’s = elections have consequences welcome to a new age.
Comment by Annon3 Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:29 pm
When was the last time any signifcant portion of the Republican party voted for a Democratic Governors budget?
Comment by Chad Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:30 pm
So, Rauner’s $20 million can’t guarantee 67 GOP Votes?
I’m guessing the HDems & SDems want to “see” Rauner twistin’ arms and threatening the GOP Caucuses. Why? Maybe the GOP members will realize being co-opted isn’t a great way to be a legislator.
Maybe MJM & Cullerton are doing the ILGOP GA a “favor” forcing the issue. Letting the GOP GA off the hook won’t teach any lessons about independence.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:31 pm
Chad, there were varying degrees of some cooperation until Obama was elected.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:31 pm
=== Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:09 pm:
===I deeply apologize for my inadequacy.===
Doubt you even fully comprehend it.===
Quit being so gentle. lol
Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:32 pm
Why don’t the GOP impose voluntary term limits on it’s self and lead the way out?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:33 pm
Republicans need to own the budget vote. Rauner wants 100% on his votes, whatever they may be. Let’s see if they can vote their conscious if it means a vote against Rauner on those.
Comment by Anon Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:35 pm
Voted for GOP picking up a heavier load. They wanted this. If they didn’t, they could have proposed extending the 5% until June, fixing FY15. They should also shoulder the load because their leader, Gov. Rauner, isn’t even negotiating in good faith.
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:42 pm
gratuitous unsults between posters not appreciated
Comment by Dantheman Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:45 pm
=== After all, it was a Democratic budget that got us into this current mess, they rightfully say, ===
This mess is largely because Republicans did not want to extend the tax increase. Democrats obliged, but now Republicans have to own the resulting cuts in services and the alternative funding mechanism.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:49 pm
There is almost a comparison here between flexing the muscle of a super-majority to be able to pass something. And….
Flexing the muscle of a super minority to subject itself to still not being able to pass something.
Even Steven needs to win this time and a lot of times. The closer we get to that, the closer we’ll get to good government.
Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:00 pm
“gratuitous unsults between posters not appreciated ”
Sorry, but it is expected when someone posts an idiot remark.
Comment by Huh? Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:05 pm
===Even Steven needs to win this time and a lot of times. The closer we get to that, the closer we’ll get to good government.===
Nope.
Normally, you would be correct.
The millisecond Rauner put $20 million in his own (not the HGOP, not SGOP) coffers AND threatened all the GOP GA members with “&$@# problems”, nope, Rauner bought the ILGOP GA, and Cullerton is “calling” the SGOP on it, and Rauner too.
Words have meanings. Rauner was a Dope playing the “&$@# problem” card oh so early. Why? Welp, Cullerton since February has been hangin’ it over the SGOP’s head, cause, well, he can.
Friends and allies never need to be threatened. Rauner overplayed owning the GOP GA, now he needs to deliver those 67 votes.
Cullerton is playing the hand Rauner gave, as a true gift, to destroy the ILGOP GA. Cullerton is doing what is suppose to be done in Caucus politics, Rauner was an unwitting co-conspirator.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:08 pm
40 million reasons to be a GOP career politician.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:10 pm
Time for the R’s to own revenue need that has been apparent for decades. Also time for D’s to be more careful with it - but R’s need to step up and acknowledge as a unified group.
Comment by alas Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:13 pm
The FY12 budget passed in 2011 had wide bipartisan support in the House, but was a largely partisan vote in the Senate. So there is at least one recent example of bipartisan budgeting during the Quinn administration.
Comment by muon Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:15 pm
===Cullerton is playing the hand Rauner gave, as a true gift, to destroy the ILGOP GA. Cullerton is doing what is suppose to be done in Caucus politics===
You just might be forgetting the most formidable player at the table in this analysis. And the two others, who can stay in until they see the River card.
Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:37 pm
There had better be a swift inroads into compromise on regulatory matters that are attached to costs, expenditures AND revenues. The governor is the governor and is going to submit his requests, but the legislature still needs to pass something palatable and balanced as well. The General Assembly hasn’t been held to that requirement and perhaps they will be now, even if it includes a fair dose of smoke and mirrors. No less, since the GA has a part in passing the budget, I think it is equally on the Democrats that control it to offer up a workable solution. So even-steven in my book. Otherwise, I guess the Dem controlled GA sends the Gov another unworkable budget and he gets out the line item veto pen and we are all torqued off.
Comment by Shemp Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:43 pm
===You just might be forgetting the most formidable player at the table in this analysis. And the two others, who can stay in until they see the River card.===
Which is why this all is being slow-played, to inflict the maximum damage.
Why do you think the SGOP Leader is coming out saying what she’s saying? To protect maybe 2-3 SGOP members AND that she can’t get more than 15 “willingly”.
MJM is going to require at minimum 40ish of the 47, maybe a couple more.
It’s being slow-played because Rauner needs at least 23. It’s on the Governor. By the SGOP saying what she did reinforces that.
Rauner needs 60 & 30, and the GA Dems will inflict the maximum pain, cause they can.
Thinking otherwise is naive.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:43 pm
==The millisecond Rauner put $20 million in his own (not the HGOP, not SGOP) coffers AND threatened all the GOP GA members with “&$@# problems”, nope, Rauner bought the ILGOP GA, and Cullerton is “calling” the SGOP on it, and Rauner too.==
OW, thanks for going right to the heart of the matter!
Comment by Agricola Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:47 pm
THinking there is not triangulation here with two top Dems and one GOP Governor could be naive. If this comes down 2-1 after the grand slow-play, don’t be sure just yet who the 2 are.
It’s just possible right now that the most dangerous strategy being played out is in one caucus of one body. And very possible the wrong people (not person) is not amused.
Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:03 pm
If MJM already has the HGOP in for 40+ votes on Rauner’s FY2015, sure MJM won’t be too amused.
The revenue aspect that Durkin stated about FY2015 & FY2016 may have to be walked back too, to get the House part in order.
FY2015 isn’t “too close”, until the structured roll calls mirror the approvals of the Four Tops and Rauner delivers GOP GA vote totals MJM and Cullerton can live with; high GOP vote totals.
No revenue, if I take Rauner at his word, take Durkin at his word(?), expect maximum GOP GA pain.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:09 pm
(Tips cap to - Agricola -)
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:40 pm
I guess I am naive. All of you are counting out the ILGOP because of Rauner’s money threat. I agree that it is a formidable problem, but Rauner is going to have to find people to run for/with him. With the speed that he is making everybody mad at him, that might be a problem; if it becomes enough of a problem, some R’s may stand up to him and his money… and some people don’t react well to threats, anyway…
Comment by downstate commissioner Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:42 pm
“Yeh, I know it’s naïve, but this is what’s wrong with Springfield, everyone is more worried about their butts than mine!”
Well, you’re more worried about your butt than theirs, so I’m not sure what the problem is.
“If they don’t, and there’s any success in the process at all, they will be viewed as having to be dragged into responsible government.”
Please, no one is going to say, “Man, the Democrats only put 10 votes on a bill when they could have put 15. I guess I’m gonna vote Republican!”
“It’s just possible right now…”
Do you have any analysis here, or just vague suppositions that maybe Mike Madigan is unhappy? ‘Cause, yeah, okay, it’s a universe of infinite possibility, but maximizing the number of Republicans who have to take hard votes is usually right in MJM’s wheelhouse.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:46 pm
Ars, the smart strategy is the same as what it has been all along. Watch MJM. All the mice eventually wind up at the cheese. Most are there. One isn’t. MJM’s patience isn’t partisan.
Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:50 pm
===Ars, the smart strategy is the same as what it has been all along. Watch MJM. All the mice eventually wind up at the cheese. Most are there. One isn’t. MJM’s patience isn’t partisan.===
Bases in what right now do you “think” this?
FY2015 is trying to be resolved, but the 4 Tops haven’t met, and let’s be very clear;
Rauner owes votes. They are going to be in the 40-42 plus GOP in the House, easy, and 18, probably, minimum in the Senate for the GOP.
Until the maximum, “maximum” amount of pain is achieved, it won’t be soup, let alone if it doesn’t balance or the revenues remain at zero.
- A Guy -, the “Rauner Cuts” at maximum impact is the ball game here. That’s it.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:56 pm
==there were varying degrees of some cooperation until Obama was elected. ==
What changed?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 5:09 pm
===What changed? ===
IMHO, national money dictated the change as a way to sow chaos in Obamaland.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 5:11 pm
Voted for GOP carrying the load. Rauner has played the bully thus far, let’s see where this goes.
Comment by illinoised Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 9:15 pm
the GOP should absolutely have to carry the load. It makes no sense whatsoever for a majority of Democrats to pass Rauner’s Bluster Budget.
Parties exist for a reason.
Comment by Odysseus Tuesday, Mar 24, 15 @ 8:29 pm