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Slowly but surely, people are learning

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Illinois
Polls

* Again, these are ancient numbers for a public opinion snapshot, but let’s look at ‘em anyway…

Registered voters in Illinois are less likely than in the past to believe “cutting waste and inefficiency” can solve the state’s budget woes, and more likely to believe that revenue increases are at least part of the solution, according to the results of a Simon Poll released Monday.

As in six previous polls, conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, interviewers presented respondents with three options for fixing the state budget deficit:

1. Increase taxes, because programs and services have already been cut; or
2. Cut waste and inefficiency in government, because the state takes in enough money to pay for services; or
3. A combination of cuts and revenue increases, because the budget problem is so large.

For the second time in seven surveys going back to 2009, almost half (48 percent) chose a response that included revenue increases—whether tax increases alone (14 percent) or in combination with budget cuts (34 percent).

Just over four in ten (42 percent) said the budget problem could be fixed by cutting waste and inefficiency alone—the lowest number in the time series, and down from a high of 58 percent in 2011.

Simon Institute visiting professor Charlie Leonard said he and his colleagues believe they are measuring a real sea change in the way Illinoisans view the budget problem. “Because mistrust of state government is unusually high in Illinois, compared to the rest of the country, voters have long believed there must be enough waste and fraud to offset the massive budget deficits we have faced for years,” Leonard said. “However, after detailed, protracted coverage in the media, and facing the real prospect of cuts to programs they like, we think Illinoisans are coming to grips with a problem that is far larger than they used to believe.”

* But…

In the 2015 survey, partisanship predictably influenced responses. Half (51 percent) of Republican respondents believed cutting waste alone could balance the budget, compared with just under half (46.9 percent) of Independents and just over a third (34.9 percent) of Democrats.

Similarly, belief that cuts alone could solve the problem was higher downstate (47.3 percent) than in the Chicago suburbs (42.6 percent) or in the city of Chicago (33.5 percent).

You’d think that after suffering through one facility closure after another that Downstaters would shy away from cuts, but maybe they are thinking about cuts to things than don’t impact them.

* Anyway, here are the year-by-year results to this question: The state of Illinois has a budget deficit of over [amount varies by year]. I’m going to read three statements that people have made about how to fix the deficit, and ask you which one comes closest to your views. If you haven’t thought much about this issue, just tell me that…

* And the trend remains strong against public employees…

Since 2008 Simon Institute polls have asked Illinois registered voters whether they favor or oppose budget cuts for a number of state programs, from education to infrastructure to social programs for the poor and disabled.

Respondents were more likely to favor cuts to state workers’ retirement than in any other area tested. Even so, opposition to cuts in retirement spending was higher than support (at 44.3 percent in favor to 49.1 percent opposed).

Support was lowest for cuts in spending on programs for the disabled (13.2 percent) and cuts to K-12 education (15.7 percent). While opposition to cuts in specific program areas outweighs support in every instance, it is also true that levels of support for cuts in those areas has grown, again in each of the seven program areas tested.

Support for cutting pension benefits has more than doubled since 2008, from 22 percent back then to a high of 45.5 percent a few years ago, to 44 percent now…

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:45 pm

Comments

Amazing what kind of poll results you can get if you spend enough on PR campaigns to vilify an issue or group.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:47 pm
In about 12 years I’ll start collecting on my state pension. Yes, it is a great deal and the compounding COLA is over generous but it’s the law and it’s the reason I’ve stayed in my public sector job instead of taking jobs elsewhere where I would take home more money now.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:56 pm
Whether pension abuses have increased or decreased, the awareness levels of the egregious ones have soared. When you have a dude going to court to justify teaching one day as a substitute teacher entitles him to a teacher’s pension, it’s hard for people to “hear or see” anything else because of the idiocy of such a policy.

When it’s added that he could likely win the case, people get even more steamed. That’s not PR as much as media accounts of some hog getting even fatter.

Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:58 pm
of course, the survey doesn’t ask about spending on pension benefits for state workers who are not included in Social Security.

Comment by anon Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:58 pm
RNUG…was thinking the same thing. Constantly repeating something, even if it’s not true, people start to believe it is true.

Comment by Finally Out (and now very glad to be) Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:58 pm
To be fair, support for cuts to higher ed, public safety and natural resources have followed a similar trend-line. The only things in that list that seem relatively unchanged are people’s views on cuts to K-12 education, the poor and disabled.

Comment by YNM Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:03 pm
Illinois is well past the point where the “Cut waste and inefficiency” option will solve the problem. One needs to either look to increased taxes or cuts to programs which have value. The problem is that the GA has not been willing to ask and answer the question as to what programs are really important to the people of Illinois and what is useful but not critical.

Comment by Hit or Miss Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:31 pm
==- A guy - Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:58 pm:==

So two stories about the IFT, one in 2011 and one in 2015, swayed people and not a sustained op-ed, talking head, and lobbying campaign from IPI, GOP politicians, Civic Committee, Civic Federation, Tribune, Sun-Times, Crain’s, et al.

Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:37 pm
Anonymous at 1:56

Your COLA is not overly generous. When compared to Social Security over the years, do the math. The average COLA for SS comes out to around 3%. In only 17 years out of 40 was the SS COLA less than 3%. There were many many years where public retirees were seriously hurt with only 3%. Who thought 3% was too high when Social Security recipients received 14.3% in 1980? Where was the outrage then? But far more importantly, SS was never intended to be what people lived on in retirement. It is a supplement. A public pension IS what people are expected to live on, given the age-old wage disparity. Many do not receive SSI, so if you reduce that, you are dooming retirees to decreasing income at a time in their lives where medical costs exceed those who are capable of working—-capable for a variety of reasons to include age discrimination (which of course, couldn’t possibly exist).

http://www.socialsecurity.gov/news/cola/automatic-cola.htm

Comment by AnonymousOne Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:43 pm
How about the following for a poll question:

“Should the state resolve its budget problems by raising taxes or by rolling back spending to the level before Pat Quinn was re-elected in 2010?”

Any guesses how that would turn out?

Comment by gopower Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:59 pm
=== Precinct Captain - Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:37 pm:

==- A guy - Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 1:58 pm:==

So two stories about the IFT, one in 2011 and one in 2015, swayed people and not a sustained op-ed, talking head, and lobbying campaign from IPI, GOP politicians, Civic Committee, Civic Federation, Tribune, Sun-Times, Crain’s, et al.====

I’d say those particular stories and a few more helped drive home the narrative, wouldn’t you?

Hey, all it takes is one red office to get the ball rolling.

Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:03 pm
gopower, I have no doubt whatever that the overwhelming majority of voters would choose to roll back spending to what it was in 2010, when the pension contributions were not being made (or being made only by borrowing). Illinois voters have traditionally voted for politicians who offered them this choice, and that is why we are in the mess that we find ourselves in. By the way, the same is true, albeit to a lesser extent, at the national level: people don’t want cuts to SS, Medicare, defense, infrastructure spending, etc. but they do want tax cuts. And we wonder why the national debt is $16 Trillion and rising.

Comment by Andy S. Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:14 pm
How much of the movement can be accounted for by White Republicans (incl. GOP leaners) who think that waste & inefficiency is the result of Democrats and POC holding office?

Remember, the GOP is heavily populated with people who believe that the federal deficit is caused by Barack Obama being in office, not specific policies & the Financial Crisis of 2008.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:26 pm
@A guy:

So a few hogs justifies sticking it to everyone else? Nice. I wonder what some of those people who say if somebody came after their pension. I bet their tune would change. It’s easy to view public employees as bad. Especially when you aren’t a public employee.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:26 pm
“would say” not “who say”

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:26 pm
Demo, I’m not making their case for them, just listening and reading.

Whose making the case for the other side and how are they making it? It’s not like PR can’t be swung both ways brother.

Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:34 pm
No amount of PR is going to convince anybody on this issue. That’s why I don’t even try. I don’t particularly care what the public thinks on this issue. They are going to hate public employee pensions no matter what. I care what a court thinks.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:42 pm
== It’s not like PR can’t be swung both ways brother. ==

On an objective basis, the unions have been woefully inadequate for many years in countering the attacks on state employees and their pensions.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:56 pm
==Your COLA is not overly generous.==
It is when you consider you are comparing a capped and weighted benefit based on 35 years of salaries such as Social Security with an uncapped and un-weighted benefit based on highest 4 years of salaries such as a state pension. Don’t forget SS redistributes its benefits downward, meaning those who made less get more than they put in and vice versa. The pension systems don’t do that.

Embedded within every state pension is the inflationary protection of an uncapped and lifelong benefit based on end of career earnings. It makes trying to compare SS and pensions difficult. But if you want to go there…

==When compared to Social Security over the years…==
Since 1972, the employee SS contribution has increased at twice the rate the employer portion of TRS. For example, if TRS employee contribution increases mirrored SS over the years, it would be 3 percentage points higher today. There is a good argument that employee contribution rates have not kept pace with escalating salaries and the impact of a 3% compounded COLA on those escalated salaries.

I agree that COLA needs to stick around in some shape or form. What I would prefer to see is a weighted COLA system. I’d rather see the $30K pension with 4% COLA and the $100K with 2%, but that darn state constitution won’t allow that.

Comment by nixit71 Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:58 pm
Some decent PR purging the abusers would go a long way. Separating the hogs from the hard working folks just doing their job and making a living would certainly resonate. Not everything’s gotta go to court. If it does, it’s going to be a stressful life for a lot of people.

Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:58 pm
“I don’t particularly care what the public thinks on this issue… I care what a court thinks.”

Agreed.

Comment by PolPal56 Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:26 pm
Because wages are significantly lower in the public sector, the cap is not an issue for most public employees who make well below it their entire careers. How about asking those who would cut public pensions whether they are willing to pay state income tax on their own retirement earnings?

Comment by anon Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 5:05 pm
All I’ve seen for a long time is increased taxes and/or cuts. While I support cuts, one thing escapes the the table when it comes to fixing the problems. That is cleaning up the regulations and laws that drive businesses/jobs OUT of Illinois. Look at other states and see what their laws and regs are that brings business/jobs into their states, and apply them here. That includes lowering taxes. Bring in profitable businesses into creates revenues; those businesses create jobs that will provide tax revenues without digging into employees even deeper.

Create tax revenue by the way of abundant businesses and employees rather than higher and higher taxes. Then don’t get greedy to get more of the working people paychecks the earn and from there employers.

You want to make cuts, start with the General Assmeblies pensions, and end life long service in Springfield with Term Limits. Anyone that spends all their life in Springfield doesn’t understand the experiences of the real working class taxpayers; their’s to big of a gap between their incomes. Also end the GA’s benefits.

If a legislator wants to speak and work for the ‘little’ people, let them get dirty, and physically sore from working like the little people.

Comment by Dan Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 5:06 pm
Dan-

Term limits and elimination of the GA pension would make for good optics and a “feel good” moment for some, but they would do next to nothing in solving the 500 lb. gorilla that is the subject of this thread. Most GA members do have other occupations; it’s only a part-time job, and many other state legislatures receive compensation less than our state.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 5:17 pm
“I don’t particularly care what the public thinks on this issue… I care what a court thinks.”

Seems like an awkward stance to take considering where the money must come from.

Comment by CapnCrunch Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 7:16 pm
“I don’t particularly care what the public thinks on this issue… I care what a court thinks.”

While legally correct, that attitude just feeds the public resentment that Rauner and his friends have been stoking for the last 4 to 5 years.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 7:27 pm