Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Um, Chuy?

Posted in:

Illinois

A new survey, Chicago Latino Voters and the 2015 Mayoral Runoff, conducted by Latino Decisions and co-sponsored by Latino Policy Forum, National Alliance of Latin American and Caribbean Communities (NALACC) and Univision Chicago, was released at a town hall meeting this morning. […]

The poll found Latino voters demonstrate an exceptional level of interest in April’s election. When asked how enthusiastic they were in casting a vote in the upcoming race, 85% said they were very or somewhat enthusiastic. […]

Findings showed nearly two out of every three Latino voters have not been asked by “anyone from a campaign, political party, or community organization” for their vote or if they were registered to vote.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:48 pm

Comments

Somebody’s poll is wrong.

Comment by Emanuel Can't Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 2:59 pm
My hood used to be pretty Latino and they are pretty good about showing up and getting out the vote.
Also, how many Latino wards are involved in run-offs?
And for Mayor? I could imagine they would be more than enthused.

Comment by Belle Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:05 pm
Latinos have tough work schedules a lot of the time. Many are never home on weekends when a lot of canvassing is done. More cell phones than land lines. Lit needs to be conceived and written in Spanish to be more effective. Canvassing from 9 to Noon during weekdays is sometimes more effective for night shift workers. I believe the survey. This is a very valuable demo, but they’re harder to reach than many others.

Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:10 pm
A pollster called a bunch of registered voters who hadn’t been asked if they were registered voters?

When I get a list of voters to contact, you know what I don’t ask them?

I don’t ask them if they are registered to vote because everyone on the list is registered to vote.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:20 pm
what’s the actual number of total voters that we are discussing?

Comment by Amalia Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:37 pm
answer, 240,000. and that may or may not be a big number.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:38 pm
CTU must not have enough Spanish teachers wprking on the campaign. Or Chuy decided to take Latino votes for granted.

No, no puede.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:54 pm
Something about this makes me skeptical:

When asked how enthusiastic they were in casting a vote in the upcoming race, 85 % said they were very or somewhat enthusiastic.

Turnout in February citywide was 34%. In the majority population Hispanic wards it was 32%. In addition to having lower than average turnout, of the 10 wards with the fewest raw numbers of votes cast in February 9 were majority population Hispanic wards. This is not a community with a history of turnout either as a percentage of registered voters or in raw totals. According to the methodology of the Latino Decisions poll it says they contacted 406 Latino registered voters so you would expect this registered number to be lower than the same number after a likely voter screen, this number is eye-opening. 85% voter enthusiasm among a community that just had turnout at 32% is striking. Either Latino turnout in April is going to be at an unprecedented high and far higher than February or something missed the mark either in their sample, their wording or their results.

When it comes to candidate support it looks like they just didn’t push their undecideds as hard as the Trib did just a few days earlier. In February Garcia won the Hispanic majority wards 50-36. The Trib poll conducted March 6-11 had Garcia leading Emanuel among Hispanics 58-34 (8% undecided). This Latino Decisions poll conducted March 16-20 now has Garcia up 61-18 (21% undecided).

Here’s why I’m skeptical of that voter enthusiasm number. If there really was this large interest in possibly electing the city’s first Hispanic mayor and turnout was going to substantially increase I’d expect his support score up around at least 75-80% if not higher. Is turnout really going to shoot through the roof if 4 in 10 Hispanic voters are either not sure or voting for Emanuel? I’m still skeptical.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 3:59 pm
It’s got all the hallmarks of a campaign going under - poor organization and messaging, a lack of funding, and online supporters insisting the polls are skewed.

Comment by HappyToaster Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:13 pm
47, yep. Latinos are behaving like the ethnic groups that came before them. In the beginning, you can get support because you’re one of us. Over time, it requires more than that, i.e. you care about us.

Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:22 pm
Years ago data showed that 1/3 of the Hispanic citizens were not registered to vote. ICIRR has done some amazing work registering voters in the community, and I imagine the trend to direct registration drives in Hispanic areas has not stopped. I am surprised by the poll especially with Chuy on the ballot.
There is a high turnover in some of the Hispanic areas. At times canvasses were as much to correct voter lists and identify those who needed to be registered as promote the candidate.

Comment by DuPage Grandma Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:23 pm
Not buying the uptick in Latino interest in the election. 9 out of the 10 wards with the fewest number of ballots cast in the first go-round were majority Latino wards. Many of those say wards had the lowest voter turnout rates. We will see if Latino voters are more motivated this time around.

Comment by Hacksaw Jim Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 4:45 pm
How in the world can anyone believe that 85 percent of any bloc is “enthusiastic” to any degree about voting in this election?

Guy, thanks for another of your ethnic stereotype primers.They always remind me of the great
Reggie White’s speech to a joint session of the Wisconsin legislature.

The difference is, that dude could beat a double team and put the QB on his back.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 5:12 pm
You’ll find Sen.Munoz under his desk.

Comment by HDO Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 8:08 pm
Rahm is going to be tough to beat. The Hispanic wards never turn out a big vote. This is an off year election , tough to get out big numbers.

Comment by mokenavince Monday, Mar 23, 15 @ 8:40 pm
Did we poll how the Jewish are going to vote?

Comment by funny guy Tuesday, Mar 24, 15 @ 1:45 am
And they say Chuy supporters argue about polls. There is a large part of the Hispanic community that is really excited about this race. This much more palpable now that there are two candidates than they were in either this year’s primary or in 2010. Ogden & Fry has admitted Hispanics are under represented. Do these numbers mean Chuy is actually leading or even neck and neck? No they don’t, but if polls going into Election Day show this in the 5-7 point range, we may be looking at a new mayor. That’s a big if, but also consistent with what we saw on the primary.

Comment by Carhartt Representative Tuesday, Mar 24, 15 @ 4:33 am