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Reuters poll: Duckworth up by 5 * Updated x1 *

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Reuters polled 15 US House races and finds that Duckworth is leading Roskam by 5 points, which is just outside the margin of error.

Democrats lead Republicans in 11 of 15 crucial races in the November 7 election to decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

President George W. Bush’s Republicans now hold a 15-seat advantage over Democrats. The polls of at least 500 likely voters in each district have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. […]

ILLINOIS 6 - Democrat Tammy Duckworth, a veteran who lost both her legs in Iraq, leads Republican Peter Roskam 43-38 percent in suburban Chicago battle to replace retiring Republican Rep. Henry Hyde.

Check back later because I’ll try to get the full results for the district, including crosstabs, if any are available.

By the way, with that sample size and that margin of error, a five point lead means the probability that Duckworth is ahead of Roskam is 89.33%.

*** UPDATE *** This was at the bottom of a Daily Herald story today:

Meanwhile, Roskam, a personal-injury lawyer, faces another challenge in the form of a lawsuit filed Tuesday in DuPage County court.

Jillian Lindeen claims Roskam was negligent when he represented her in a lawsuit against a driver that struck her car on Dec. 31, 2000. The new suit alleges Roskam failed to use due diligence in pursuing the case and as a result it was dismissed Aug. 1.

Attorney Ralph Hruby, who is representing Lindeen, said she suffered severe injuries in the 2000 accident that required numerous operations. Although the lawsuit comes in the midst of a heated election, Hruby said the timing is not political but is a result of the lawsuit being dismissed.

Roskamâ€™s campaign questioned the timing.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 8:55 am

Comments

That sounds about right. Roskam has been fighting an uphill battle all along. With the mood we’re seeing across the country, Duckworth’s leads sounds right. I do not see her pulling away. Instead, I expect the race to tighten further to a dead heat.

This district should still lean Republican, and for most years, it would do so loyally. 2006 and Duckworth have been worthy opponents. Her military experience is admirable. If she her stands on national security were more moderate, she would easily defeat Roskam. But as we all know, she carries the “Democrats are sissies regarding war” banner. Her military experience and war wounds are intended to counter this. It remains to be seen if it does.

This race will remain a toss-up, but right now Duckworth has the edge. Now, if she would like to LIVE in the damn district…

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 9:09 am
I still don’t beleive it. But I guess when you make stuff up about Roskam questioning her service and the media runs with it, that’ll happen.

Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 9:39 am
Sorry for the ignorance but what are “Crosstabs” and why/how are they so important in terms of analyzing polls ?

Comment by Helm Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 9:51 am
Roskam is toast.

As people process the deluge of bad news about the GOP Roskam’s numbers will only get worse.

And the NRCC will prioritize defending incumbents, so help won’t be coming in the form of more money.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 9:54 am
Wumpus - I’m not sure what you think was invented. If Roskam didn’t want to take a hit, he never should have mentioned “Tammy Duckworth” and “cut-and-run” in the same breath. Roskam is a very clever fellow, but in this case he was too clever for his own good.

There’s clearly alot more going on here though. Forget the five point lead, Roskam is only at 38% in a staunchly GOP district. Let’s face it, Duckworth has won alot of people over.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 10:22 am
Letâ€™s face it, Duckworth has won alot of people over.

including me…

Comment by bored now Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 10:31 am
Yea, this race is over. Even if Duckworth will cut and run.

Comment by Sol Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 10:47 am
I think it is a long way from over, especially with Duckworth at 43 but it must make the Republicans very worried that the NRCC has spent millions of dollars on mailings and ads and Roskam has lost ground. The DCCC hasnt really spent anything yet and I am sure will come through with a big buy soon.

Comment by HANKSTER Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 10:51 am
Sol, you prove the Democratic partisans point with malarkey like that.

Hankster, It is Roskam who is at 43. Major Duckworth is at 48. The DCCC already put in their big buy (they bought earlier when rates were cheaper). They’re keeping their powder relatively dry.

Besides, Roskam’s digging his hole deeper saying he supports Denny Hastert. Like most things Roskam “supports” we’re not really sure what he’s supporting.

Hastert (in concert with Shimkus, Boehner and Reynolds) cannot get the story straight. So what is Roskam supporting?

This also ties into Social Security. He says he supports strengthening Social Security but the Democratic plan to stregthen Social Security (which Americans support) is dramatically different than the Bush/Republican plan to essentially destroy Social Security as we know it. So which does Roskam support?

Of course… he also supports his mentor Tom DeLay who has been indicted and has resigned from Congress.

Comment by NW burbs Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 10:58 am
NW Burbs,

Check those numbers again: Duckworth is at 43; Roskam is at 38.

I think Tammy pulls this one off along with the other Dems who will win most of the open seat races this year.

Comment by Coloradem Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 11:05 am
Coloradem….
Dyslexic today. Need sleep. You and Hankster are correct.

Comment by NW burbs Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 11:14 am
Roskam is wrong. He’s wrong for the district and he’s wrong in his campaign assumptions. He’s wrong because he doesn’t realize a plurality of district voters want a change from the policy failures, the mismanagement, the cronyism and the scandals of the Bush Administration and the Republican Congress. He’s wrong because he thinks this seat is a GOP legacy asset for him to inherit. He’s wrong because he thinks we need a whole lot more of what the GOP has been shoveling out of Washington. He’s wrong because he thinks the voters aren’t smart enough to think independently beyond party labels. Simply put, most voters in the 6th CD will vote for the person who best represents their point of view. Roskam’s wrong for the 6th CD because more voters agree with Tammy Duckworth and her positions than agree with him and his positions.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 12:08 pm
To add to YDD’c comments above, Duckworth has obviously won a lot of people over, including apparently the Cegelis supporters, who passionately supported their candidate in the primary and have really stepped up for the Dem candidate in the general election.

Lots of hot talk and quite a bit of yelling in the primary by both Duckworth and Cegelis supporters, but Cegelis folks showed they’re a classy bunch.

Comment by Scott Fawell's Cellmate Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 12:17 pm
Anyone who thought Cegelis supporters were going to sit this race out prove how little political sense they have. Passions always run high in a primary…and they always will.

Comment by TonyT Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 12:23 pm
I no longer live in the 6th, but lived there for almost 30 years, it is a very GOP leaning district and like most elections will come down to organziation and get out the vote efforts. The GOP have it down in that district and will do so again in November. Polls are about as usefull as a garden hose in a forest fire. Five points in a sample of only 400 without seeing the questions asked or areas called is a guess at the voters sentiment at that time. Who knows when the people were contacted, etc. I see a big win for the GOP here and also in the 8th were McSweeney will knock out Bean.

You can take that to the bank……

Comment by Antioch Blu Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 2:37 pm
Antioch Blu: The only question on when the poll was taken was if it was before or after she went on the air. If it was before then Roskam is in even worse shape then this poll may indicate.

Comment by HANKSTER Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 2:54 pm
Duckworth’s commercials are oustanding, especially the one where she debunks Roskam’s characterization of her position on immigration. She comes off as an outsider who will serve independently. The model was set by Melissa Bean…the Republicans just don’t get the fact that all the votes are still in the middle.

Comment by Reality Check Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 3:49 pm
Tammy Duckworth was the Democrat chosen to rebut the Presidnet’s weekly radio address . She was very effective in that role - just plain-spoken common sense aboout Iraq.

Roskam made a major strategic error when he tried to oin the “cut and Run” label on a veteran who paid a high price for her dedication and service to our country.

Rsokam is toast- but obviously it will be fairly close.

Comment by Captain America Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 6:11 pm
This race is all about the hawks. The Black Hawk vs the Chicken Hawk.

Comment by Charles Martel Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 6:59 pm
The GOP GOTV will surprise the heck (can I say heck, Bill?) everyone. See you all on Nov 8th…and many days in between.

Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Oct 4, 06 @ 9:35 pm
I knew the overzealousness of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) would do in Roskam. They really overplayed the immigration issue against Duckworth, especially trashing the common-sense U.S. Senate bill Duckworth supports (McCain-Kennedy).

And now Denny Hastert’s pending implosion will nail the coffin into any chance Roskam had.

Comment by A WISE OLD MAN Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 6:27 am
You clearly don’t live in the 6th Charles…good post though, it did make me laugh.

Comment by Funny Thursday, Oct 5, 06 @ 8:07 am