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Rauner approval rating: 40-36

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Illinois
Polls

Forty percent of Illinois voters say they approve or strongly approve of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s job performance, according to a new Ogden & Fry poll released in light of the Republican’s first 100 days in office.

In a March 13 Ogden & Fry Poll taken after the governor’s first 60 days in office, Rauner’s approval rating was also at 40 percent. That’s down from a 43 percent approval rating Rauner garnered in a February Ogden & Fry survey.

Thirty-six percent of the 971 voters surveyed for the latest poll, conducted April 22 on behalf of the Illinois Observer, gave the governor a negative job approval rating. About 23 percent of the respondents were neutral or had no opinion on the governor. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.21 percent.

The poll is here.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:39 pm

Comments

that’s higher than i would have expected…

Comment by bored now Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:41 pm
bored now…

True that.

Comment by OneMan Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:44 pm
as long as his “agenda” polls well with the citizens, I think the Gov would be fine with an approval rating in the low 40’s.. at least for this year…

Comment by NotRMiller Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:46 pm
In other news, Governor Rauner’s approval rating among commenters on the Capitol Fax Blog remains fixed at 5-95. Crosstabs illustrate the disapproval rate of 95% is shared by the blog’s comment board demographics of union activists, disgruntled state employees, Democrats, former Quinn Administration staff, and gadflies.

Comment by phocion Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:47 pm
Rauner’s not upside-down, if he gets a budget passed and doesn’t have a lockout of state workers, and gives a positive vision of Illinois after the FY2016 budget is passed, Rauner will have succeeded in his first 6 months and numbers will improve, even without any significant legislative bills of his own becoming law.

If Rauner cares less about pill numbers, continues to be combative, with the GA, Dem leaders (misunderstanding?), and continuing this utterly Dopey “resolution round ups” and dividing language of unnecessary stump speeches, this could be a high water mark.

Rauner’s Crew should be pleased. Unions and detractors should feel “meh”, but those grouos aren’t actuvely driving up negatives, although they should be.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:49 pm
-phocion-

-In other news, Governor Rauner’s approval rating among commenters on the Capitol Fax Blog remains fixed at 5-95. Crosstabs illustrate the disapproval rate of 95% is shared by the blog’s comment board demographics of union activists, disgruntled state employees, Democrats, former Quinn Administration staff, and gadflies.-

You mean all of us “other” folks?

Comment by sparky791 Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:50 pm
Looks like his ratings might have stabilized, which helps. I mean, 40% ain’t good, but at least it’s not evident that he’s still falling.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:51 pm
Which will happen first, Governor Rauner’s approval numbers go upside down, or Derrick Smith completes his prison sentence?

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:57 pm
===Which will happen first, Governor Rauner’s approval numbers go upside down, or Derrick Smith completes his prison sentence?===

I defer to - Michelle Flaherty -

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 12:59 pm
According to another outlet, the pollster says that the strongly positives and the strongly negatives have both increased, and that is not good for the governor or the state.

He is polarizing: he is playing to his based, Democrats are playing to theirs, and that does not bode well for an FY 2016 budget deal.

Still, the governor out to be happy that news of the cuts has not hurt him among independents, atleast yet.

Comment by Juvenal Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:00 pm
Willy and AA are “gadflies?”

Harrumph.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:03 pm
the polling firm quoted is not very good.

Comment by Tom Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:08 pm
Somewhat surprised here that the Gov’s approval rating are that high. I also agree with OW that Rauner needs to show vision, be willing to compromise and cut the senseless campaign rhetoric going forward to improve his numbers. If he takes the “my way or the highway” tact in FY 16 and AFSCME negotiations it’s not going to help him.

Comment by Stones Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:12 pm
I think the 40% reflects a new level of public nihilism after being tricked by faux populists Blagojevich and Quinn.

Comment by Qui Tam Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:14 pm
I smell a rat. No way is his approval rating is 40%. So 40% of people think its alright to pile on the poor. Sad

Comment by BlameBruceRauner Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:15 pm
I think he could care less but very pleased at these levels. I think it say’s his messaging is working… In his mind or the polls that his agenda is polling positive. One thing for sure, he is pushing his agenda against unions. At this point, it’s not a backfire.

Comment by Walter Mitty Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:20 pm
“shared by the blog’s comment board demographics of union activists, disgruntled state employees, Democrats, former Quinn Administration staff, and gadflies.” In otherwords, the ones that were 5-95 against Quinn too.

Comment by Skeptic Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:22 pm
Alternative headline- Only 36% disapprove or strongly disapprove.

Statistically within the margin of error but disapproval went down from 60 day mark of 37% to 36% at 100 days

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:27 pm
“So 40% of people think it’s alright to pile on the poor”

My guess is that the 40% is not so much comprised of people who “think it’s all right to pile on the poor” as it is of people who haven’t taken the time to examine Rauner’s policy proposals too closely. All they see is a guy who doesn’t seem too concerned about what other politicians think of him and seems willing to tackle tough spending issues. (Emphasis on the word “seems”). If they have heard anything about social programs being cut, their first thought is probably “that’s unfortunate, but the state is broke and we have to draw the line somewhere”.

Comment by Secret Square Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:31 pm
That is the best he will do.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:33 pm
This is after 60 days, before the “dump on the autistic kids” campaign, correct? I’d like to see the numbers now.

Comment by CharlieKratos Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:35 pm
My apologies, I misread.

Comment by CharlieKratos Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:38 pm
I had lunch last week with my parents and aunt –lifelong Democrats in their 80’s who voted for Quinn and still follow the news. I was surprised by their views.

They think that Rauner is doing a pretty good job because he’s trying to cut the budget and fighting with Madigan, and at least he’s more effective than Quinn.

I hate to say this, but with a mostly compliant press and lots of money, salesman Rauner may be more effective with the public than the folks on this board — who pay close attention to his actions — may expect.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:39 pm
The year is young and a lot of people don’t pay attention until it has a direct impact on them.

Comment by Aldyth Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:45 pm
Thanks Anonymous @1:39. My only point was that this board is much more critical than the public at large. I was out with my sister for dinner the other night, and she the lifelong Democrat grudgingly praised Rauner. She said he’s doing the dirty work that needs to be done, but everyone has been afraid to do. Interesting times.

Comment by phocion Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:46 pm
“the polling firm quoted is not very good.”

It’s right on the fairway with what a bunch of other polls have found.

“I think the 40% reflects a new level of public nihilism after being tricked by faux populists Blagojevich and Quinn.”

Ha ha, even Rauner’s approval ratings are Pat Quinn’s fault!

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:47 pm
Phocion and Skeptic are both correct. Quinn irritated those groups as well. As a tangential point, there does seem to be an attack on unions in general from elements of both parties. cf. Emanuel, et al.

Comment by Fairplay Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:52 pm
Wait a second. That is *not* comparable to other polls. Note that the methodology states that their respondents come from the company’s own database of frequent voters. It is not a randomly conducted poll like other reputable surveys.

Nor does it say how the poll was conducted–by phone, Internet, in-person, what?

You can’t report on this with a straight face and say it reflects Illinoisans’ opinions.

Comment by Ray del Camino Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:53 pm
I can’t stand the man, but as other people have pointed out, most people aren’t paying that much attention. Unfortunately, people tend to believe that they work hard and are entitled to everything they get while everybody else is a freeloader. Until cuts directly hit people, they won’t wake up and notice what’s going on.

Comment by Carhartt Representative Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:55 pm
*Gender could not be determined for 5 respondents….

https://screen.yahoo.com/pat-barbershop-000000400.html

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:55 pm
I wonder how Rauner’s approval ratings compare to Madigan’s disapproval ratings. If it’s significantly lower and continues to fall, Rauner is losing ground with his agenda.

Comment by Wensicia Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:57 pm
===compare to Madigan’s disapproval ratings===

That was in my last newspaper column.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 1:57 pm
The first 100 days is a small window; actually, a honeymoon period. Action, for better or worse, was implemented for the reminder of the current fiscal year. Most people will not strongly react unless an action has a direct impact on them. Democrat legislature aren’t going to complain too much because they were the ones who approved the gimmicky 2015 budget. What will matter, for both Democrat and Republican legislatures, is what happens between now and the end of this session; what laws will be enacted (or not) and what is the potential and real consequences, to the voters, as pertains to the new legislation. Actually, the most current activity which most parties are watching with great interest is the reaction by municipal and county boards to Rauner’s “Turnaround” proposal.

Comment by Buzzie Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:07 pm
It might have something to do with a lot of people I know listening to NPR but a couple of the moderate independents I know have expressed some definite disapproval of Rauner over the cuts. The cuts to autism programs on World Autism day doesn’t sit well with the independents I have talked too to them it was less of the big picture but more what is says about his administration’s character.

Comment by WAK Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:09 pm
It will be interesting to see what happens if we go into a summer-long overtime session. Does Rauner get pulled into the legislative mire and watch his numbers tank because he’s part of the mess? Or do his numbers improve because he’s standing up to Madigan and the “old way?”

My bet is on the former. Voters everywhere almost always dissaprove of legislative institutions and their saugage making ways. Rauner will be part of it. He’ll have the stink of Springfield on him.

Comment by Phil Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:17 pm
I want to double down on what Tom said. Ogden and Fry’s polling in Chicago municipals was tire-fire bad.

Comment by tikkunolam Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:17 pm
Arsenal”It’s right on the fairway with what a bunch of other polls have found.”
If you’re playing Bushwood.

Comment by Tom Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:36 pm
Many people still assume that the cuts will effect other people. As he enacts, or tries to enact, specific legislation, the numbers are likely to drop. It’s easy to garner support for cuts as long as they are not specified. It’s much harder when people see what is to be cut.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:41 pm
- Tom -, are you saying it’s not?

Well, then explain, in regards to Rauner polling.

Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:44 pm
A lot of citizens are disengaged and don’t follow the news closely. I’ll bet you that a third of the citizens aren’t even aware yet about Rauner cutting off funding to Autism.

Comment by The Dude Abides Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:45 pm
I think it is Mike Rowe who does similar work to what the Governor is tasked with. He too has relatively good ratin,s.

Comment by A Citizen Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 2:55 pm
This doesn’t surprise me, not after we basically said in at least two polling questions that it doesn’t matter who gets hurt by budget cuts, just don’t raise our taxes.

The numbers that carry the most weight are the legislative votes needed to pass stuff.

The Rauner administration is not having smashing success with his Turnaround campaign, as we’ve been seeing here lately.

I have a fear, probably unreasonable, that Rauner won’t sign the Obama library bill without some kind of problem. If he has national aspirations, and since he apparently hates the “corrupt” union-Democratic alliance, an Obama takedown could be big for him. Please talk me off of the ledge and tell me it’s not true, lol.

Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 3:20 pm
Those individuals registering disapproval will have their economic guts ripped out. That is all.
/s/ Bruce Rauner

Comment by too obvious Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 3:53 pm
4.0% approval rating in my informal poll.

Comment by Anon Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 3:59 pm
Are folks paying much attention, even to the recent budget cut wars. I’d guess not. There was the election, he won, now there’s Hillary vs. ?? coming up, taxes went back down, what’s really to pay attention to. Again, ask folks at the next party who their state rep is. Um….

Comment by Cassandra Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 4:03 pm
Again, ask folks at the next party who their state rep is. Um…

People almost never know who their state rep or state senator is unless they are members of the League of Women Voters.

Comment by Enviro Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 4:12 pm
“Again, ask folks at the next party who their state rep is. Um…”

People almost never know who their state rep or state senator is unless they are members of the League of Women Voters, or they read Capitolfax!

Comment by Enviro Friday, Apr 24, 15 @ 4:13 pm