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The AP points out an interesting development from its latest national polling.
After winning over moms in back-to-back elections, Republicans have lost their advantage among married women with children this year. […]Poll results and interviews with political analysts indicate the GOP has lost ground with a voting group that helped the party keep hold of Congress and the White House in 2002 and 2004. Married moms have become a volatile swing group just as Democrats need to gain 15 GOP- held House seats and six in the Senate to win control of Capitol Hill.
An Associated Press-Ipsos poll this month found that support is now evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans among married women with children in the house. Republicans won this voting group by 18 percentage points in 2002 and Bush won it by 14 percentage points in 2004.
Congressional Quarterly changes more of its ratings, although none of them are Illinois contests.
All year, CQPolitics.com’s ratings of House and Senate races have been a virtual one-way street: Almost all rating changes show improved chances for the Democrats to capture seats — a reflection of the year’s toxic political environment for the Republicans who control both chambers of Congress and the White House.And the traffic on that one-way street is getting heavier by the day. Last week, CQPolitics.com changed it ratings on one Senate race and 10 House races. In every case, the ratings indicate strengthening Democratic prospects.
The Hotline moved the 6th CD race up a notch in its forecast and included this little tidbit:
All women Dem candidates will probably see a boost, particularly with the so-called security/soccer mom vote
Melissa Bean’s re-election was moved off the “hot” charts a couple of weeks ago and was downgraded again, to 35.
Stu Rothenberg is pretty emphatic:
After looking at the news for the past 10 days or so, I have to wonder how Democrats can possibly fail in their efforts to take both the House and the Senate.The national atmospherics don’t merely favor Democrats; they set the stage for a blowout of cosmic proportions next month.
No, that’s not a prediction, since Republicans still have a month to “localize†enough races to hold onto one or both chambers of Congress. But you don’t have to be Teddy White or V.O. Key to know that the GOP is now flirting with disaster.
QUESTION: Is there or is there not a coming national Democratic tidal wave? Will it happen here in Illinois as well? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 8:45 am
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I hope an “ethical” tidalwave occurs everywhere in the country, but especially here in Illinois. I don’t think the Republicans are deserving of another landslide nationalwide because they have knowingly gone against the majority opinion on the warfront, choosing to go instead with their base, the religious right. That is NOT the majority of this country. Then again, can we expect any better from Democrats? Certainly not in this state where they had a golden opportunity to do what was right and instead they acted like thugs, thieves and dictators. It’s really time for other choices than the two old parties. They don’t represent American thinking as it is today.
Comment by Martha Mitchell Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 9:02 am
The problem for Illinois politics is twofold. Judy doesn’t do well with the conservative base of the Republican Party and the national wave is depressing turnout with that same base. Take the two factors together and Topinka would have to win nearly ever swing vote and many Democrats in a blue state to win. That’s tough.
Rod, for his many faults, runs a tough campaign and has somehow managed to make the two look nearly identical on corruption issues even if that’s not true. Neither is perfect, one is likely to be indicted.
Ultimately, the lack of money and utter incompetence of the Topinka campaign seem to have doomed her chances.
In terms of Congressional elections, Hare and Bean should be safe. I’d give Duckworth the advantage, and Seals may yet gain some traction as the depression of turnout and lukewarm support by social conservatives really could create a problem for Kirk in that District. Pavich is having name-ID problems so unless Jerry does something really stupid, and that’s not out of the question–he’s probably coming back.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 9:19 am
I see two Democratic pick-ups in Illinois. Tammy Duckworth and Dan Seals. I believe Bean will hold onto her seat. Also with Judy most likely losing in the Governor’s race and Alexi winning in the treasurers race we face the prospect of every state constitutional officer being Democratic, the Illinois House and Senate remaining Democratic and of course both of the State United States Senators being Democrats.
Roskam and McSweeney have the MISFORTUNE of appearing at a fundraiser this week with two of the most UNPOPULAR Republicans, Bush and Hastert. While it will help raise $$$ it is something that is bad for two guys in tightly contested races.
I encourage everyone to check out Dan Seals, he has a great shot and I look forward to spending some weekends in the 10th CD helping out.
Comment by wndycty Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 9:20 am
Never underestimate the partisan right’s ability to ignore its leadership’s failings. As can be evidenced on a local in the Axley-Kotowski race, the right never gives up — even when it has to resort to exaggerating past the point of lying as with the recent Axley “comparison” mailer (false comparison is more like it).
The right will put on its partisan blinders, ignore any failings, and still get up and GOTV from Oct 16 to Nov 7. Whether or not the voters partisan-conservatives call on will vote is the real question. Given how much mud and muddle the Republicans are throwing at the wall on the Foley affair (in hopes some erroneous tidbit will stick in GOP-leaning voters’ minds — as in “Dems held on to this info for an October surprise” and “but “Rep. Studds was censured” and “Monica”)…
I’m thinking enough of them still will and even though Dems will pick up seats, probably not enough in either Chamber. Denny will decide to spend more time with family around Christmas when no one’s paying attention. No one currently in leadership will be promoted to Speaker, too much taint.
Comment by NW burbs Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 9:28 am
It’s not going to be just a tidal wave in Illinois, it’s going to be a tsunami that swamps Republicans. And the Illinois GOP is doing little more than building a berm with plastic pail and scooper.
I thought surely McSweeney or Roskam would win. Now I think both lose.
Total sweep of the statewides. Some of the Repubs won’t break 30%.
Repubs lose more seats in state house and senate.
I’ve never seen Republicans as furious as they are now. And Shimkus and Hastert just confirmed the leadership is even more arrogant and more out of touch than anyone imagined.
Comment by RealClear Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 9:33 am
Another big Dem win, just like the polls showed for John Kerry, right? Ha.
I just shake my head every time I read the polls. The pollsters desperately try to remain relevant in a world where they are incapable of doing what they claim, namely: predict election results.
There’s only one poll that matters. Watch what happens. Then ask yourself, why do I keep believing in those darn polls?
Comment by Southern Illinoisian Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 9:41 am
Well, the press was right on target when they called the Republican tidal wave in ‘94. They were right when they called for between 40,000 and 50,000 allied casualties when Kuwait was liberated back in 1991. And they were spot on inundating us with that Jon Benet Ramsey pedophile guy.
So yes, I think they are spot on when they calling this Democratic tidal wave before it happens.
Comment by Petey Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 9:49 am
The GOP has alienated: aged voters with what they did to prescription plans, veterans and security-minded people with Iraq, average taxpayers with wage disparity and undeserved tax breaks for the top earners, and the family values crowd with Foley-gate. They signed the Contract With America and then did whatever they wanted anyway. Who? Delay, Cunningham, Ney are a few that immediately come to mind. This will not so much be a Democratic groundswell as a shunning of the GOP. Looks like another 40 years in the desert…
Comment by Anon Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 10:04 am
There is a strong anti-Dem sentiment in suburban Cook County (surely there’s no need to explain why). It could prompt some people who might otherwise vote Dem for Congress to vote straight Republican. What could help Tammy/Melissa/Jan is their gender (and obviously how much of their vote is in Cook).
Comment by RBD Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 10:12 am
I will be surprised if the GOP manages to hold on to the House or Senate. However, there will not be a “blowout” unless you consider 20 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate a blowout.
Absolutely nothing like 1994. In ‘94 the GOP ran more than 100 solid, electable candidates against Dems in seats that were still reasonably competitive, i.e. less than 55-45 margins. They won 70+ seats. THAT is a blowout. The problem for the Dems is A. they don’t have that many good candidates, and B. they don’t have that many even remotely competitive seats.
It would also help if they had a platform besides “Republicans are evil we hate them Nyah!”
Comment by HoosierDaddy Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 10:19 am
Oh, and the rest of the question. GOP will lose net 1 in Illinois (Duckworth wins), 2 in Indiana. The wave might actually HELP Topinka, if it is an anti-corruption wave. She’s already not getting the hard-core conservatives, so their staying home isn’t going to hurt her any more than otherwise. Anything that might turn moderates off on Blago helps her.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 10:23 am
The GOP has been pretty hard hit by all the negative media coverage and excessive calls for the Speaker to step down. I think it will hurt them this election but not as bad as the polls show. If JBT wins she will have a heck of an uphill battle. If Rod wins, well then he has 4 years to lie in the bed he’s made. This budget is horrific and there is no good way out of it. The taxpayers will pay the price and they will remember that in 2010 if Rod can get through the next 4 years without getting indicted. But I agree with one of the other comments, as we saw in Bush-Kerry the only poll that matters is on Nov 7.
Comment by BBrook Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 10:27 am
Well said, Petey. The only discernable wave right now is he one the press is on, one which too many professional and amatur pundits have joined in on. Eeryone needs to remember that legislative races are not won or lost on a statewide or nationwide basis. That is particularly true in Illinois, where the population is poliically diverse. What matters in Naperville often does not in Taylorville or Peoria.
The only polling that is insightful currently is district-specific, and those numbers do not justify some of the over-the-top predications being made
Comment by Huckleberry Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 10:37 am
The Kerry/Bush polls were neck and neck, the only polls that were way off were the exit polls which is not really polling anyway. People can dismiss or flaunt polls depending on if they like them or not but the fact is that polls done by good pollsters are a very good measuring tool, if you like the results or not.
Comment by HANKSTER Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 10:38 am
This will be a banner year for Democrats in Illinois. Blagojevich by 12%, Giannoulias by 14% and White, Madigan, and Hynes by over 20%.
Comment by (618) Democrat Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 10:46 am
Archpundit’s analysis is pretty good. Judy had a chance, but blew it. In the four weeks left, she can’t make it up because of the toxic atmosphere for Republicans.
As for the Democratic wave in Illinois: in two years, both Crane’s district and Hyde’s district (assuming Duckworth wins) will have switched parties. That’s saying something: two of the most conservative Congressmen in the country replaced by moderate to liberal Democrats!
Comment by the Other Anonymous Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 11:18 am
It all depends on the international scene. If a major international crisis erupts around the NK weapons testing then the electorate may get a bit queasy about the prospect of the Democrats running foreign policy, especially in the national Legislature. Fair or not, the Dems are viewed as weak and indecisive on foreign policy (though much stronger than the Repubs on domestic). Carter flubbed Iran, Clinton flubbed
Al Qaeda by underreacting to their pre-911 activities, and so on.
It’s unlikely that even an international flap would affect local and Illinois state govt races, though. The Democrats likely will win all statewide offices and the margins will clearly measure Illinoisians’ degree of tolerance for rampant state government corruption. Wide margins will signify “all pigs to the trough!” to the Dems and will also signify Illinoisians’ infite tolerance for in your face state government corruption.
Comment by Cassandra Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 11:19 am
A small quibble with Cassandra: I think the Republicans are so far behind the eight ball, that even an international crisis won’t help.
A lot of the negativity towards Republicans is about trust, and W and the current gang in Congress just don’t have the trust of the American people. I think a whole bunch of independents have come to the conclusion that they’d rather have weak, but cautious, Democrats in charge over aggressive — and often wrong — Republicans.
The one race where an international crisis will make a difference is Mark Kirk/Dan Seals. Kirk has good foreign policy credentials that still serve him well.
Comment by the Other Anonymous Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 11:31 am
===Democrats now outdistance Republicans on every single issue that could decide voters’ choices come Nov. 7. In addition to winning—for the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll—on the question of which party is more trusted to fight the war on terror (44 to 37 percent) and moral values (42 percent to 36 percent), the Democrats now inspire more trust than the GOP on handling Iraq (47 to 34); the economy (53 to 31); health care (57 to 24); federal spending and the deficit (53 to 29); gas and oil prices (56 to 23); and immigration (43 to 34).
While international crises are somewhat hard to gauge in terms of electoral support, the most recent polling by Newsweek (similar numbers on issues with other recent polls) suggests that a crisis could easily be a draw or hurt Republicans. When you control everything, it’s hard to blame the other side.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 11:33 am
Yes, Republicans are going to get it for their lack of responsiveness at the national level. I read that article yesterday and I’m glad that the soccer moms are waking up to the fact that the dems have always been more responsive to domestic issues that matter to families. However, the women interviewed in that article are the stay at home moms, and working women with children still have a long way to go in terms of government responsiveness. FMLA was a start. Good program misused sometimes but it covers people who have family emergencies. What about everyday obligations? I’d like to see government programs that mirror what some private companies are doing to retain women in the workforce. Government should be first with such programs as an example for private industry to follow rather than the other way around.
Comment by anonymous Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 11:37 am
Southern Illinoisan wrote: Another big Dem win, just like the polls showed for John Kerry, right? Ha.
What polls showed Kerry up? He trailed in national polls from the time of the GOP Convention in September until Election Day. Stop revising history.
Comment by NW burbs Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 12:05 pm
The Conservative Era in America is about to crash and burn.
While Conservatives like RealClear may be licking their chops in anticipation of power in the Illinois GOP, this is irrelevant, as in reality peole are sick of extremes Right or Left. Look at Lemont-Lieberman - Joe will win easily.
But, the politicians are sticking to the mantra that is is all about turnout, not “controlling the center.” The general voter has tired of all that, and the “Gotcha Politics” it has inspired. They are just as disgusted with Pelosi and Reid.
But the conservative leadsership of the GOP is now considered out of step nationwide, and obsessed by (1) their hot button issues and (2) staying in power, NOT the best interests of the people.
The are about to pay a heavy price for that arrogance.
Comment by Say Goodnight, Gracie! Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 12:09 pm
Not observing a national Democratic tidal wave but certainly observe a change for many due to the ire of the general voting populace. The “Vietnam style stalemate” in the war in Iraq, with the Iraqis becoming more and more dependent on Big Brother US providing all the financial aid and military sacrifice, with little evidence of the Iraqi populace going it on their own (don’t want to overlook the huge profits realized by our own war industry); issues on Bush doing too little too late on the border issue and immigration (Cheap labor good for our economy, can’t stop that just yet); inaction on minimum wage by the Republicans (cheap wages, good employment stats); and of course the concerns of Iran and North Korea (keeps our minds off Iraq). On the latter issue maybe Durbin and Kerry can send a strongly worded letter to Iran and North Korea. That should scare them into line!! The latest issue of the “good ol’ boys†protecting their own simply confirms how disgusting and pathetic many of our “leaders†have become. Unfortunately this character is deeply imbedded in Washington politics, as well as in many state’s politics, including our own. Many of these issues will affect our State elections and will have an impact for those tying their campaign too closely to Bush, but informed voters tend to vote based on local issues, regardless of national issues. Most citizens are fed up, in general, with the way our State and Nation’s business is being conducted, but short of a magnificent choice the voter goes to what they know, I am a Democrat or I am a Republican. Independents will be the deciding factor here in Illinois. Bottom line, might just be the time for Whitney and the Green Party? Overall, a nice gain nationally and locally by the Democrats. Blogo back in……egad!!
Comment by Justice Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 12:18 pm
If the voters of Illinois re-elect the current governor, then they deserve the government they will get. Thoughtless partisanship will be the downfall of the state and the nation.
Comment by Vote ABB Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 12:29 pm
Someone stated that “Neither is perfect, one is likely to be indicted.”
I’d like to know who, in their right mind, is seriously going to even bother voting for the one who is “likely to be indicted” here? Why are you even going to bother? And if you do, will you then run to hide in the closet until Judgement Day? I cannot see a bunch of Dems who know better running around after the election shouting “I voted for the guy who is tight with Tony Rezko! Oh yes I am!”
You folks who know better and who still plan to vote for this clown are crazy.
As for “Ultimately, the lack of money and utter incompetence of the Topinka campaign seem to have doomed her chances.”
Shame on the business community of Illinois for not pouring more money into JBT’s campaign. When Rod hits you with 300 more fees, folks, don’t complain to the rest of us about the business climate around here. And when voters complain that there isn’t enough growth as far as jobs (compared to other states that zipped ahead of Illinois since the recovery) and that your bosses are a bunch of jerks, but you’re stuck there because it isn’t much better elsewhere either, then don’t complain.
As for why the Topinka campaign is running a lazy campaign, I’m guessing they just may know that Rod, or someone real close to him, is about to go down. They’ve been pretty smug in a sense, although they haven’t completely said it outright.
Check the rumblings, though. Word is that “several” (I’m quoting Sneed from the Sun-Times) indictments are about the be announced very soon. Hmm. Wonder if Rod ASKED his pal Rezko to skip town for a while just so the press couldn’t get to him? When Carol Marin interviewed him, he didn’t want to talk much about Rod. Hmmmmmm.
Comment by Angie Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 12:36 pm
As an individual who has never pulled a Dem ballot in a primary, I think the R’s are going to get stomped. Soccer Mom’s are going to vote more DEM because the R’s in Congress failed to protect “children” when the Foley creep was preying on them. Many of us long time R’s are furious with the state of the R party in Illinois and the failure of producing an outstanding ticket. I like Judy and plan to vote for her over BLAGO but lets face it the party is in total chaos. The R’s need to learn to be more realistic about what middle America is thinking. Quite wasting time bashing the gays, quite wasting time defending a crazy war and quite thinking we need to be the saviors of the world. Lets focus on the issues at home for the love of God!
Comment by johninchicago Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 12:59 pm
You know the GOP is floundering when they resort to that tried and true tactic: blame the leftwing media.
Acclaimed Conservative Robert Novak is predicting the GOP will lose the House.
The conservative Washington Times is predicting the GOP will lose the House.
Conservative Pat Buchanan is predicting the GOP will lose the House.
In fact, I don’t know anybody predicting that the Republicans will hold onto the House except House Republicans and their political operatives.
BTW, Hoosier, Indiana Republicans are now predicting that they will lose all three contested GOP Congressional races in Indiana.
If they can’t hold onto Indiana, they can’t hold onto America.
Duckworth and Bean will win by sizeable margins. Democrats have a good shot to pick up one more Congressional seat in Illinois, either Weller’s or Kirk’s.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 1:23 pm
Wow, I have never seen the dem partisans so calm about good news for them. I am suprised that the “John Laesch is gonna beat Hastert” talk hasn’t started up. Well, props to you. Yeah, nation-wide, the dems are going to do very well. And as a Republican, I couldn’t care less and still be a Republican. Face it, the Washington GOP has dropped the ball on a bunch of issues and I hold a very low opinion of the current house (not that I think democrats could make it better, but the GOP can’t make it much worse) not to mention my constant distain for any Senate no matter who controls it. I would love to see Republicans do well in state politics though. Topinka and Radogno and maybe some state senate and rep seats. But I am not exactly an optimist with the national party making everyone hate them. Also, Dan Seals chances are not good. Kirk’s hard numbers are really strong. But as far as the 8th district goes, McSweeney is dead. And for the 6th, Roskam is on life-support. But he still has a chance. Hare is leading by more than a hair and there is little hope for Zinga. So, I guess to answer the brunt of the question… yes, the democrats look relatively strong in the state as well as nationally.
Comment by Lovie's Leather Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 1:32 pm
YDD, Buchanan has been predicting the downfall of the GOP since he left the party!!!
Comment by Lovie's Leather Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 1:34 pm
Vote ABB;
We always get exactly the government we deserve, by definition. Our actions (and inactions) create each government in the country.
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 2:16 pm
To answear your question Rich, there will be a semi Democratic tital wave. Dems should pick up 16-20 seats in the House, enough to give them a slim majority. Yes, it will impact Illinois, where Bean will cream (hey, that rhymes-I should go back to my career in rap) McSweeney and true American patriot Tammy Duckworth will edge out Peter “Tom DeLay friend and trial lawyer) Roskam.
Dems nationally could have a larger wave but they will have to invest some cash in the tier 2 races like the 10th CD. Given my experience with the DCCC, however, I don’t see this happening. They throw money at the most targeted races and the law of diminishing returns sets in while sleeper races like Dan Seals are neglected. Then they wake up the next day and see the close results and say, “Darn, should have put more cash in that one!”
Once Dems have a slim majority, however, watch for the real battle to begin; namely, will Pelosi have the votes from southern conservative Dems like Jim Marshall in Georgia? And if so, will this hurt them in two years?
You gotta love politics.
Comment by Mike Williams Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 2:35 pm
Lovie –
Apparently, the vast leftwing media conspiracy also includes FOX News:
Internal Poll Suggests Hastert Could Devastate GOP
WASHINGTON — House Republican candidates will suffer massive losses if House Speaker Dennis Hastert remains speaker until Election Day, according to internal polling data from a prominent GOP pollster, FOX News has learned.
“The data suggests Americans have bailed on the speaker,” a Republican source briefed on the polling data told FOX News. “And the difference could be between a 20-seat loss and 50-seat loss.”
….
While internal GOP polls show trouble for Republicans, the newest AP/Ipsos poll also showed that half of likely voters say the Foley scandal will be “very or extremely important” when it comes time to vote on Nov. 7. By nearly a 2-1 ratio, voters say Democrats are better at combating corruption.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 2:59 pm
Angie - The answer to your question is ‘Governor Pat Quinn’.
The Governor may get votes from some people BECAUSE they think he will be indicted.
Comment by RoseyB Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 3:04 pm
CARDS WIN!! CARDS WIN!!
Off to the NLCS for the THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR!!
What happened to the Cubs? Oh yes, another manager bites the dust!! Next year will be ANOTHER rebuilding year.
White Sox. 1 year wonder and now you gotta wonder why you’re not on the Cardinals Bandwagon!!
Comment by BIG R.PH Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 4:17 pm
There is so much I would like to say, but I just do not have the time.
I just want to address some points to those here who somehow think that Seals is going to defeat Congressman Kirk in the 10th district.
Check out all the links that Rich Miller is providing to sites like Hotline that are ranking Congressional districts in likelihood of turnover. Kirk’s is nowhere to be found in the top 50.
Check out the election map at rollcall. com. They still list the district as “Safe Republican.”
I would actually call the district “Likely Republican” but the point still is that partisans on the left have their hopes up way too much over some kind of upset in the 10th.
Comment by Establishment Republican Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 4:21 pm
Establishment Repub … you just keep thinking that and we’ll just keep thinking what we think.
Go ahead and stay home on Election Day, I dare ya.
No, I double-dog “Rooster” dare ya.
Comment by NW burbs Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 4:48 pm
===#
I would actually call the district “Likely Republican†but the point still is that partisans on the left have their hopes up way too much over some kind of upset in the 10th.
CQ rates it as Republican Favored which I think you agree with and I do, but in terms of Illinois, it’s probably the next seat for Dems to concentrate on. 52% Kerry - 47% Bush, good Dem candidate with some decent money, and Kirk doesn’t excite his own base.
If you are a social conservative on November 7th in the 10th District–what brings you out to the polls? Topinka. Nope. Kirk. Nope. The Downballot Republicans? Stu Who?
I won’t say it’s likely, but with the current trends, I don’t think it’s an absurd possibility either.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 4:49 pm
The social conservatives in the part of the 10th district where I am in Cook County seem to really like Kirk. You ask what will motivate folks here to turn out and vote, and the answer is voting against Stroger for one, and against Blagojevich as well.
The Cook County race is obviously not a factor in the Lake County part of the 10th, but I think you are seriously misunderestimating the motivation of Republicans to come out and vote.
Comment by Establishment Republican Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 4:57 pm
Repubs got their int’l crisis. The NK nuke test highlights Bush’s failure to do anything about Kim Jong Il except inspire him to build nukes. Those two incompetents deserve each other. The people of the US and the North Koreans do not.
Bush says North Korea flaunted the will of the int’l community and the int’l community will respond. Woohoo! I wonder how many more US jobs we’re going to have to give the Chinese to get them to help us rein in Kim?
Comment by markg8 Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 5:12 pm
Spent the weekend at SIU’s homecoming. I have never seen so much republican support and so much anti Blago in that geographic area. Rich Whitney had a great flyer on the top ten reasons Blago won’t debate him. It was so funny I think anyone would laugh, regardless of who they support. Many of the campaign signs in the area refer to Blago as Public official A and don’t even refer to him by name.
Comment by leigh Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 5:33 pm
I believe the nuke test of N. Korea will end up being a positive to the national GOP. The national Dems are still being seen as soft on national defense and with N. Korea joining the nuke club of nations it highlights what Bush has been complaining of in the form of his “axis of evil.”
Locally in the 10th Congressional some Democrats have been attempting to link Kirk to Foley and Kirk to Bush, and even Kirk with Frankenstein. In the meantime, over at GOPulse blog which covers lake county politics, Seals is seen on several You Tube screenings fumbling his way over answers about protecting Israel and dealing with Mideast violence. Makes Blagojevich look coherent on that $1,500.00 check deal.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 5:53 pm
DuPage Republicans need to stop coming into Proviso for drugs if they think the Cook County Dems are going to drag down Dem Congressional candidates.
Peraica is the one that needs to worry about an otherwise viable campaign being dragged down by the national GOP.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 6:25 pm
Ah, the Republicans are cheering the N. Korea tested a nuclear weapon.
Any port in a storm, right?
What’s more important to Republicans: national security or domestic partisan political advantage?
Louis G. Atsaves thanks for letting us see the true GOP agenda on security issues.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 6:28 pm
I don’t know that NK’s test will benefit anyone politically. It’s being handled diplomatically via sanctions, embargoes or whatever the multi-national group comes up with. It’s not so scary that other nations have nukes what with Pakistan, India, France, China, Russia, the US et al all having them.
For me, I’d rather they use up one of their 5 or 6 bombs on an underground test than an aboveground strike on Japan (I suspect their first target if they wanted someone to strike).
Comment by cermak_rd Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 7:17 pm
Well no one has mentioned the role that immigrants and Latinos will play in all this. the immigrant citizens increased by 30,000 in DuPage County in 5 years! 56% in Lake County in the same 5 years. (2000 to 2005)
And Kirk has been a pro-profiling anti-mexican arrogant jerk, while McSweeney and Roskam are covering their districts with anti-immigrant mailers! dumb. dumb. dumb.
Meanwhile the Ill. immigrant coalition announced today they have hit 16,000 plus registrations.
these folks are doing the hard work needed to change the electorate, and the GOP is going to smell the coffee too late!
Comment by tomorrow we vote Monday, Oct 9, 06 @ 9:06 pm
Louis:
You really think that a NK nuke test BENEFITS the R’s? Please allow me to try to show you where you are wrong yet again.
Yes the R’s are supposedly the ones who are strong on National Security; interesting that this nuke test happened on their watch. They are doing such a fantastic job (head pat).
I’m thinking we went into Iraq because we thought they had WMD. Now NK definitely does. How do the President and Congress defend not invading NK? They must be getting soft on defense.
Here’s the real reason why R’s won’t win in November. The Conservative base, the evangelicals, the defense hawk…they must be sick to their stomachs. If they aren’t, then they aren’t paying attention. Louis, do you feel SAFER now than you did in 1994? No? Neither does the rest of the country.
Comment by Nice Suit Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 6:56 am
Don’t really see a Democratic “wave” nationally. Illinois, for better or for worse, has been a Democratic wave for most of my life.
Comment by Fan of the Game Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 8:41 am
A category 4 hurricane will hit the GOP on Election Day. Congressional Republicans and their K Street cronies will be living in FEMA trailers next year.
Comment by Punley Deiter Finn Tuesday, Oct 10, 06 @ 1:28 pm