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I got nothing good to tell you

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

I spent the better part of last Wednesday asking folks around the Statehouse if they had anything positive to tell me. I went looking for anything that might indicate a silver lining to this increasingly nasty spring legislative session.

Mostly, people just laughed at me.

Other than some individual personal developments, there just wasn’t much positivity around. The governor’s chief of staff Mike Zolnierowicz and his incomparable wife Barret were about to have a new baby. They’re great people and that’s wonderful news, but it also means that “Z” was not going to be able to work on solving the problems for a few days.

A gaming expansion bill appeared to be progressing. But I’m told the governor is in no mood to sign it as long as his “Turnaround Agenda” is being ignored by the majority Democrats.

The Senate Democrats, meanwhile, were expected to move legislation to help Chicago out of its horrific fiscal mess, but there’s still the problem with the governor’s refusal to do anything for the Democrats until he gets what he wants.

So, I came up with nothing.

The governor’s list of demands had been whittled down, but he still wasn’t backing off his insistence that the General Assembly give him at least some anti-union “right to work” local zones. He wanted a “causation” standard for workers’ compensation and a property tax freeze, which in even watered-down forms continued to be a nonstarter.

The list of demands went on and on, but in exchange, the governor was willing to support $3.5 billion in new revenues, which doesn’t sound too bad until you realize that he also wanted the Democrats to agree to $3 billion in spending cuts. The governor’s folks thought they were being generous by offering more revenues than cuts, but the Democrats pointed out that getting their people to vote for both tax hikes and huge spending cuts was pretty much impossible.

Instead, the Dems talked last week about sending the governor an unbalanced budget, telling him to cut as much as he could and then they’d come back and help provide the revenue to make the monster balance. They wanted to put the cuts on Rauner’s head, and his head only.

But it was more likely that Rauner would just simply veto the budget bill in its entirety and harangue the Democrats via a massive TV ad campaign for once again producing an “irresponsibly unbalanced budget.” And I’m hearing that when the clock strikes June 1st, the governor’s list of 80 demands and concessions goes out the window and he will put his entire agenda back on the table and withdraw all the concessions, including (and especially) much-needed new revenues.

So, in an admittedly desperate attempt to find something positive to write about, I maneuvered two people, one from each side, to a table last Wednesday night to see if they could hash out one little thing.

Take it from me, these guys are all talking past each other. They just don’t understand each other, and really don’t even comprehend one another, although it did appear that the governor’s people were slightly more willing to cut a deal and they appeared to “get” the Democrats at least a bit more than the Dems appeared to “get” the governor.

The Rauner folks know, at least somewhere deep down, that attacking unions is an existential issue for the Democratic Party. The Dems ain’t gonna move a millimeter on that one. But the Rauner folks have been pointing out that raising taxes is also a potentially existential issue for Rauner and the GOP. He can’t just break his promise to reform government and the economy and then hand the majority party a gigantic tax hike. He’ll get slaughtered for that. Maybe the Dems know that and want to force him to cut his own political throat, or, being Democrats, they just don’t comprehend how tax-averse he is. But as long as he’s willing to go part way on revenues, they’re going to try and push him to go the full boat.

And then I got home Wednesday night and read Gov. Rauner’s op-ed in the State Journal-Register. “If legislators are willing to reform how we do business, they will find me an eager partner,” the governor wrote. “If they are not, then they should expect a very long extra session because I will keep fighting for major reforms.”

Like I said, I got pretty much nothing in the way of good news. Sorry.

* Greg Hinz, meanwhile, looks on the bright side…

Let’s start with what, surprisingly, is the easier part: money. Right now, Illinois has a roughly $6.6 billion hole in that budget, and the only ways to solve it are to raise taxes, cut spending or do some of both.

Rauner has offered to put anywhere from $3.2 billion to $3.5 billion in tax increases on the table (the figure depends on whom you believe). That number could be pushed somewhat higher. That depends on whether the governor is willing—in addition to partially restoring the income tax hike—to add some of the $2.2 billion in potential service-tax revenues that two civic groups proposed recently. Look for Rauner to move a bit more.

On the cut side, Democrats reportedly are willing to part with $1 billion in spending. That, too, likely is an initial bargaining position. No one yet is detailing who would lose, but insiders suggest that the University of Illinois will take a hit, reimbursement rates for physicians participating in Medicaid will drop and local municipalities will lose a portion of what they get from the state’s income tax (though not as much as Rauner originally proposed). Toss in some sweeps of “excess” revenues from special state funds, and the two sides are a mere billion or so away from a balanced budget. Shazam!

Pensions, too, aren’t where the real divisions lie now thanks to the Illinois Supreme Court, which pretty much gave the state one option: Pay up. Lawmakers could try a variation on the “consideration” plan pushed by Senate President John Cullerton, in which some benefits go up and others fall. But the savings will be modest and can’t be counted now.

Agreements on a couple of other issues are needed to give this big, end-of-session deal lift-off velocity. Lawmakers need to pass Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle’s pension reform plan, which pairs benefit cuts with more money from the county, and let the courts deal with it. Mayor Rahm Emanuel really does need a casino to pay police and fire pensions. And the fiscal cliff that will require the city to pay a whopping $550 million more a year in pension contributions starting Jan. 1 needs to be smoothed down. Does it really matter whether the retirement systems are fully funded in 2040 or 2050?

Then throw in a capital spending bill to give everyone some ribbons to cut. Funding source: possibly an increase in the gas tax.

But, as Greg points out, there’s still that Turnaround Agenda problem. And it’s a big one.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:19 pm

Comments

=== But, as Greg points out, there’s still that Turnaround Agenda problem. And it’s a big one. ===

And there’s that ego thingy. The big two don’t like to lose.

Have a good Memorial Day!

Comment by Norseman Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:31 pm
Pass Preckwinkle’s plan and “let the courts deal with it.” Kick the can. Her bill diminishes pensions for current employees far more than SB1.

Comment by Cold Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:33 pm
Most of the “turn around agenda” has nothing to do with the budget Maybe sometime way off in the future arguably, but certainly not now or soon.

Comment by JackD Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:48 pm
The GA majority better find SOME cuts. More revenue - tax the wealthy 1% and business by extending sales tax to legal fees, consulting fees, and advertizing. Stay away from taxing the little guy - haircuts & dry cleaning.

Comment by ANON. Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:54 pm
- Norseman -, is On it.

Ego.

The failure of all this was Rauner and this RTW, Resolution nonsense instead of actively looking for actual common ground.

Rauner wants Rauner agreement, not compromise, until he can’t get it bullying.

There’s still plenty of room to agree, if everyone chooses to be agreeable(?)

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:58 pm
The big problem is that what Rauner is offering, the ability to pass a big tax increase, is not exactly a prize for the Democrats. That makes the smart strategy to pass a budget based on higher revenues and then give the Governor the option of cutting the passed budget or agreeing to more revenue. Is that irresponsible? Yes, but they’ve been passing irresponsible budgets for years, and it hasn’t kept their members from getting re-elected.

Comment by Pelonski Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:00 pm
=== Most of the “turn around agenda” has nothing to do with the budget Maybe sometime way off in the future arguably, but certainly not now or soon. ===

Pretty much. Of Rauner’s bills, the closest he comes is the elimination of union bargaining rights on salary and benefits for local govt. I guess you could argue that the locals can screw their employees and try to recover some of the cost from the property tax freeze and cuts to LDF.

Comment by Norseman Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:01 pm
Turnaround agenda as I understand it.

Radogno Bills
SB0884 - Tort Reform
SB0994 - Workers Comp
SB1046 - Tax Freeze and Local Union Provisions
SJRCA0014 - Term Limits
SJRCA0015 - Remap

Durkin Bills
HB4222 - Tort Reform
HB4223 - Workers Comp
HB4224 - Tax Freeze and Local Union Provisions
HJRCA0039 - Term Limits
HJRCA0040 - Remap

Durkin is starting out fresh. That might be a problem with deadlines.

Comment by Norseman Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:09 pm
The apparent Rauner position of desiring another $3.0B in cuts to go with up to $3.5B in tax revenue, is a strong move in the right direction. Better than “Turnaround Agenda” or nothing.

Suspected this is about where Rauner would be, but nice to see it verified by your reporting. At least the numbers would work.

You’ve made clear the political jam ups en route to that deal, on both sides.

Have always thought the Dems could more easily give on tort reform and workers’ comp, than on RTW. And the Republicans must remember that both sides get punished by voters with any tax increases. It’s not like Dem supporters want to pay higher taxes. There’s room for some more flexibility.

Comment by walker Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:13 pm
=== raising taxes is also a potentially existential issue for Rauner ===

Every capital plan has had bipartisan support for new revenues. So the GOP will support higher taxes — so long as they are regressive. It is only on progressive taxation that they draw the indelible line. The principle here is that it is better the soak the poor than to ask more from those best able to pay.

Comment by nona Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:35 pm
=== both sides get punished by voters for any tax increases ===

Not a single Democrat who voted for the temporary income tax hike lost in the next general election. (One lost a primary in Chicago, but it was unrelated to the tax hike.)

Comment by nona Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:40 pm
from Nekritz mass email (5-22-15)
…
I recognize the need and desire to change some of the ways in which our state government operates and regulates business. Moreover, I firmly agree that the tax code should be broadly re-evaluated. But in having that debate, we can’t lose sight of the fact that there are thousands of people who rely on our swift resolution of the budget situation. Manufacturing a crisis that impacts that part of the population would be a disservice to everyone.

I look forward to working with my colleagues and the governor on tackling these issues.
…

Comment by zonz Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:05 pm
I believe Rauner said it all- “I never lose”. Hard to deal with a guy like that.

Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:07 pm
=I believe Rauner said it all-”I never lose”.=

I think Rauner will find there is a first time for everything.

Comment by DuPage Monday, May 25, 15 @ 4:10 pm
== Lawmakers need to pass Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle’s pension reform plan, which pairs benefit cuts with more money from the county, and let the courts deal with it. ==

As I said last week, I fear we have to go through one more attempt to negate the pensions before everyone gets the IL SC message.

Comment by RNUG Monday, May 25, 15 @ 9:23 pm
there’s still that Turnaround Agenda problem. And it’s a big one

It is a problem for the Governor. His Turnaround Agenda has been exposed as having little real world support once it is exposed. Had he not taken his RTW carnival on the road to be shut down every night across our state - Rauner could have had more legitimacy regarding his Agenda.

However - does this man keep up with news at all? - his Turnaround Agenda has no political clout outside the neighborhood Casey’s gas pumps in tiny-town Illinois, (and Rockford!), meaning the Governor has a problem with his unpopular Agenda.

Turnaround Agenda is a political albatross. It is going to be ignored.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, May 26, 15 @ 9:11 am