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New polling has some surprises * Updated x1 *

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Illinois
Polls

[Bumped up closer to the top because it was posted so late yesterday. It’s also been slightly edited this morning.]

Constituent Dynamics has posted some interesting poll results in IL congressional races.

Go here and click on the districts, or just click on the links below:

* Roskam-Duckworth, 47-47 (crosstabs pdf)

* Hastert-Laesch, 52-42 (crosstabs pdf)

* Shimkus-Stover, 53-36 (crosstabs pdf)

*** UPDATE *** ArchPundit has DCCC numbers from the Duckworth-Roskam race.

IL-06 (Open): Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R)

Head to Head: Duckworth 51%, Roskam 46%.

Only 34% of voters in Illinoisâ€™ 6th district think that the country is going on the right track, while 57% say weâ€™re headed down the wrong track and only 21% give President Bush a positive rating for the job he is doing. [Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, 409 voters; October 8-9; margin of error 5%]

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 8:54 am

Comments

I was just looking at the split north south in the 6th with Roskam getting 47% to Duckworth’s 44% vs 47% Roskam 48% Duckworth in the south.

I’m no expert on the demographics of this area other than commuting through it every day for over ten years. The south seems old and established and the north new and filled with townhomes.

And then the age split, which I always get a kick out of: Roskam 18-44 49% Duckworth 44% vs Roskam 45-64 44% Duckworth 46%.

I don’t understand the North South thing here and would appreciate some insights.

Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 4:55 pm
If Duckworth is even then she is behind.

Comment by Bubs Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 5:10 pm
If the CD poll is right, it’s happening inspite of Roskams tv ads; which I find irritating.

Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 5:17 pm
GOTV will decide the 6th race…and you have to wonder how many Republicans will stay home given JBT’s position on the issues, and the Foley mess in DC.

Oh, and the Roskam ads are great.

Comment by Manny Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 6:25 pm
This poll makes Laesch look competitive. Hastert should be burying him. That shows the weakness of the Republican party in a year when they should be able to clean house in gov and treas offices.

Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 7:19 pm
That shows the weakness of the Republican party in a year when they should be able to clean house in gov and treas offices.

Isn’t year six supposed to be the trough?

Compare how the Gov dumped on Rezko at the press conference with the way Hastert stood up for his staff and said the buck stopped with him. That was a comment an apolitical sort of person made to me and I thought it revealing. It was the comparison that popped into their head.

The Foley business will backfire on Dems and I think the Cegelis people are gowing to regret all the flakey claims they made about Duckworth being a tool of Emanuel and the City Dem Machine… I think the Rezko thing is going to spill over on her because a lot of people have that connection now.

Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 7:56 pm
I agree, the GOTV will have a mean suprise for the Dems. unless they have the same/simalar operation as the GOP, Roskam will win, as will McSweeney.

Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 8:16 pm
Well I suppose it partly means that the many, many (91,000) immigrant citizens in the district are breaking for Duckworth big time. There is a lot of voter registration, citizenship work, and GOTV being done in the immigrant communities. The anti-immigrant mailers of the NRCC have been unceasing and disgusting. And I also hope that it means that the latest scapegoating by the Repubs is not working with decent regular folks, either.

Comment by tomorrow we vote Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 8:27 pm
I don’t get the latest mailers but I wrote earlier some of Duckworth’s stuff put her well to the right of Bush. And got dismayed agreement with folks at SoapBlox chicago on that….

Comment by Bill Baar Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 8:55 pm
I just returned from the Duckworth/Roskam debate. Duckworth was the clear winner. The crowd was at least 70% in her favor. Roskam tried to tie her Rezko, and it backfired when Duckworth asked Roskam if he asked Pres. Bush to return the $5,000 donation he received from Rezko.

Comment by CBM Thursday, Oct 12, 06 @ 10:48 pm
Despite Foley Blago is going to sink the Democrats.
Bob Flider is going to wish he was not so hard on his old employer( Ameren/IP)he might need a job after Cain beats that flip flopping Chocago controlled downstate candidate.

Comment by annie Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 12:14 am
The IL-06 race will be a nail biter, and you can bet both Duckworth and Roskam have their election lawyers on speed dial.

Both campaigns have shown good field organizations and it will be interesting to see the impact of early voting here.

Comment by Scott Fawell's Cellmate Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 1:22 am
ANNIE’ I think you may be right! Flider ducks the issues and questions way too much! Rumblings have been going around that Madigan is very upset with the weak candidate in Flider,,,he compared him (Flider)the other day to the adult version of Kiddie care and is tired of having to put soooo much money into the race,just to beat a no-name in his district,,, does’t look good for the Dems in this race!

Comment by Big W Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 4:31 am
Bill,

The comparison with Blago doesn’t quite work. No one on Denny’s staff has been indicted - yet. (And, to be honest, I doubt they will. Ignorance isn’t really a crime.)

I can’t believe Laesch is within shouting distance of Hastert. No wonder Hastert is on the campaign trail locally and on the air. Hastert’s last opponent, who was a bit flakier than Laesch, only managed to pull 31%.

Comment by Saudade Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 7:18 am
I would be hard pressed to say Dick Cain is a nobody. He has been working that district whether knowingly or unknowingly for literally the last 50 years. Everybody in that district knows Cain, but few know the real Cain.

Comment by Eddie Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 7:43 am
Saudade,
I know. And I don’t think there was even a crime here with regards to Hastert and his staff.

It was just a comment I heard from someone who had listend to both guys replayed on the radio…

Comment by Bill Baar Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 8:43 am
Only 34% of voters in Illinoisâ€™ 6th district think that the country is going on the right track

I live in the 6th distirct. I answered that question. I responded I didn’t think the country was moving in the right direction. The reason I think the country is not moving in the right direction is because of *all* politicians.

Do not assume that 33% is solely an attack on the president. I am very pessimisitc because of the political parties in Illinois.

My disgust is *NOT* going to translate into a vote for Duckworth. I hope you don’t come to the conclusion that it is. You are going to be very disappointed.

Comment by Poller Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 9:04 am
Bill said:
“I donâ€™t understand the North South thing here and would appreciate some insights.”

Not a demographics expert but the “South” used in the poll seems to be the portions of the 6th composed of the 48th (Roskam’s district) and the 21st state senate districts. The North is the 23rd, 28th, etc. senate districts.

If these numbers are accurate, this could mean that those living in the district he now serves are less likely to vote for him than the other residents of the 6th. (unless there is something strange going on in the 21st.)

Of course, the north south difference is within the margin of error so I’m not sure how much to read into this.

Comment by Randy Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 9:18 am
It was interesting to see the turnout at the debate last night. Duckworth supporters outnumbered Roskam supporters 3 to 1. That shows some real energy and excitement behind her and in a tight race that could make all the difference.

Comment by HANKSTER Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 9:20 am
Has anyone seen a poll on the 17th (Hare - Zinga). It appears from here as though this is another Democrat 15+ point win, but that is nothing more than a guess.

Comment by zinged again Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 11:40 am
When are we going to see a new poll out for the governors race? Seems like Blago was eager to spend his money when he thought the numbers would go his way.

Comment by Little Egypt Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 2:45 pm
I was at the debate and there was a lot of duckworth supporters but I didnt recognize any of them maybe they live outside the district like duckworth.

Comment by 6th dist voter#2 Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 5:40 pm
Why are there no new numbers on McSweeney/Bean? Last numbers were from Aug. Anyone know the numbers? Thanks

Comment by Curious Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 7:46 pm
Hastert has been working harder than I’ve ever seen. Good for Laesch; he is an organizer’s organizer.

Comment by anon Friday, Oct 13, 06 @ 11:30 pm