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The Guns of August

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* The Chicago Tribune editorial board’s prediction for how the governor’s impending TV advertising blitz will force House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton to cave…

The sooner every voter understands not only who broke Illinois but who’s now refusing to accept real reforms, the sooner Madigan and Cullerton will have to accept a simple truth:

Their party lost the governorship because the people of Illinois were fed up with the status quo. That hasn’t changed. The people want to fix how this sorry state does business.

…Adding… From a press release…

Sen. Kyle McCarter (R-Lebanon) issued the following statement in response to Gov. Bruce Rauner’s management steps in preparation for the out-of-balance state budget passed by Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Michael Madigan:

“The Democrats continue to want to spend more money than Illinois has in hard-earned tax dollars. Their budget plan is $4 billion out-of-balance. At the same time, President Cullerton and Speaker Madigan refuse to structurally change state government policies and practices, having rejected a comprehensive package of reforms negotiated in good faith.

Gov. Rauner seems to be the only adult in the room and he is making tough but necessary decisions. The alternative to a bloated budget and getting us to a balanced budget is passing reforms that grow the economy and eliminating wasteful spending, fraud, and abuse. It is up to the Democrat super-majority to decide whether the political class will cease oppressing the working class. Gov. Rauner simply wants to empower the people and restore freedom to the citizens of Illinois.”

* And Rep. Ron Sandack responds to tomorrow’s workers’ comp vote in the House…

Hey, it appears that suddenly the Speaker & House Dems want to talk about Worker's Comp. Interesting.

— Ron Sandack (@RonSandack) June 3, 2015

Is there a bill yet? If so, has anyone, other than Speaker's Staff, read it? Industry involvement? Sorry this is #BS https://t.co/6ol1IJlIYW

— Ron Sandack (@RonSandack) June 3, 2015

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:30 pm

Comments

It is in a way going to be a new game in town, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:32 pm
Good lord.
Yeah - the last 200 years have been an absolute mistake. No one wants what they’ve got and just can’t wait to give it away, just to get a big wet kiss from a venture capitalist myth-teller.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:33 pm
Strikes me of the proverbial Cubs mantra, “this is the year.”

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:33 pm
Their party lost the governorship because people didn’t like the idea of cuts to education, health care, pensions or prisons while paying higher taxes and instead went with the guy promising more spending (offset by $1 billion in cuts to CMS, still waiting for that) and lower taxes.

Comment by Juice Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:34 pm
“The people want to fix how this sorry state does business.”

Should read “The people want to fix how this sorry state does business, as long as it doesn’t personally affect them, or their family and friends”

Comment by How Ironic Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:35 pm
Mentioned this elsewhere, but it appears Sandack is demanding lobbyist input on the Workers Comp legislation. Apparently he didn’t get the memo.

Comment by Juice Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:36 pm
come on Tribune. Rauner won because Quinn was a bumbling fool.

Comment by givemeabreak Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:38 pm
Now that Rauner is the defacto head of the Tribune, why not put his logo on the masthead?

Comment by Missy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:38 pm
All the voters did last November was add a dose of R brand snake oil to the usual D brand of snake oil … and it’s not mixing very well right now.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:39 pm
=Is there a bill yet? If so, has anyone, other than Speaker’s Staff, read it? Industry involvement? Sorry this is #BS =

BS? How statesman-like of Sandack.

Also by “industry involvement” does he mean he wants the special interest lobbyists to have input? I thought that was off limits?

Comment by Get a Job! Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:40 pm
Sandack has his moments. But the twitter-snark approach to the job is bush league.

Comment by Urbs In Horto Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:40 pm
The Owl Sandack can add an amendment, can’t he?

I hope the Owl got approval before hooting that tweet, otherwise, a $&@#% problem with Uihline might happen.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:41 pm
The owl can’t stop from making noise

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:46 pm
Is there a bill yet? Has the industry vetted it? Questions Democrats have been asking the governor for months. Cash the check already, Ron. We all know who you work for.

Comment by Nope, Nope, Nope Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:48 pm
Rep. Sandack wants to know WHO has seen the bill.

Comment by Michelle Flaherty Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:53 pm
Really don’t understand Sandack, if MJM is willing to bring worker’s comp to the floor again, why is Sandack bad mouthing the move. This is something Rauner wants and is probably something that can get a bi-partisan compromise bill past. Keep the bad mouthing to yourself until the bill/discussion hits the floor. It might not be just a stunt. Sancak - GIVE COMPROMISE A CHANCE !!!

Comment by Frank Ambrose Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:55 pm
Willy, I must know: why is sandack an owl? I can’t be the only one WHO’s confused by the reference.

Comment by Homer J. Quinn Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:57 pm
I am so freakin’ tired of the Trib being the Rauner press office. It is incessant and completely unworthy of a newspaper - or what newspapers used to be. Every day a new piece (or pieces) backing Rauner and slamming the legislature and its leadership. Print the facts and let us make up our own minds!

Comment by Archiesmom Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:57 pm
Mine at 12:55: Last line spelling error “Sandack”
Sorry

Comment by Frank Ambrose Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 12:57 pm
Hit the seach key on NRI Hearings…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:00 pm
Um, there’s a storyline here that is well developed and gaining steam. Rephrase all you want. Disagree all you want. The girls and boys in Voterland aren’t happy. They’re placing blame. The vast majority of it is going in one direction.

If there’s a plan to deal with this, I’d start implementing it…you know…like now. Like tomorrow on Worker’s Comp. This is their second “last best chance”. These are smart people. I just don’t get how they don’t have this figured out.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:07 pm
My R legislators are keeping their mouths shut about the “$4 billion deficit.” Why? Because they know they’re going to be pressing a green button to bring the income tax rate up to 4.5% or 4.75%. Rauner has as much as acknowledged that’s the last piece of the puzzle once the smoke clears.

So my guys (yes, they’re all guys) don’t want to get caught with their pants down talking publicly about cutting to balance the budget when they know a tax increase is the final answer they’re going to have to accept.

And how will the Trib editorial board spin the tax increase that Rauner is eventually going to sign?

Comment by Mister Whipple Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:08 pm
I take it your reference to the opening days of World War I — with its slow but unstoppable descent into a fruitless and pointless conflagration — was intentional.

Well played. And quite apt.

I feel an overwhelming amount of dread, because ain’t nobody going to win this one.

Comment by Sam Weinberg Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:09 pm
Boiled down, the Tribune editorial board believes in the virtue of ahistorical, narrow individualism. It’s a very simple-minded take on Adam Smith’s invisible hand, ignoring much else of what Smith wrote. For the Tribbies, everyone pursuing exclusively their narrow self-interests results in the maximum good. Others of us believe in the idea of self-interest properly understood. The individual is very important, but excessive self-focus does not lead to optimal results for society. I expect that they are quite happy Jamie Dimon just became a billionaire (he certainly got there with no government help; and Chase will keep running ads in their paper). In Rauner, they have their Atlas to slay the Bolsheviks looking to freeload from heroic capitalists. The Trib describes its beliefs this way, “The Tribune believes in the traditional principles of limited government; maximum individual responsibility; and minimum restriction of personal liberty, opportunity and enterprise. It believes in free markets, free will and freedom of expression.” But really, why is the opinion of a collection of anonymous, mostly white, mostly men (in a metro region that is anything but) of no particular accomplishment any more important than anyone else’s (including anonymous blog commenters), just because it’s put into print underneath a Gothic typeface?

Comment by Willie Stark Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:13 pm
Dear Senator McCarter, remember that one time you voted to override the Governor’s veto of funding for a DJJ facility that had literally no kids left in it? I’m pretty sure that was you supporting a whole lot of wasteful spending.

Comment by Juice Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:13 pm
I would argue that Rauner won not because of his ideas but because Quinn lost. He was a terrible candidate.

Comment by Stones Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:18 pm
Archiesmom - let’s put aside the ideology for a second. During the W years the St. Louis Post-Dispatch - which is either still or was up until recently a 5 star paper - had an editorial board that rarely (if ever) wrote anything even decent about President Bush and his administration. I tracked the paper throughout W’s second term and I can’t remember a time when the P-D agreed with President Bush. So while I understand the frustration, I can’t say that it upsets me when a major, daily newspaper isn’t either supportive or critical of an elected official.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:18 pm
Mr. Stark, please let some oxygen into the bunker.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:18 pm
- Homer J Quinn -, with respect.

https://capitolfax.com/2014/10/09/live-coverage-nri-hearing/

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:19 pm
=== Stones - Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:18 pm:

I would argue that Rauner won not because of his ideas but because Quinn lost. He was a terrible candidate.===

Then join the community debate team. They’ll puff on their pipes and tell you how interesting you are. And wrong.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:21 pm
===I would argue that Rauner won not because of his ideas but because Quinn lost===

Focus on the first paragraph, please.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:24 pm
Willy - you and I are in complete agreement on the point about introducing legislation or offering a substantive (i.e. not technical) amendment. I think Sandack has enough juice with Leader Durkin that would allow him to have a high(er) level staffer draft something that would put some oomph behind his concerns. The same goes for budgetary issues. Anyone can offer an approp bill at any time. Having been a staffer I know that when the Reps and Senators want something then the staff acts on the request in a timely, efficient manner. I really like Rep. Sandack, but there is no reason not to offer up an amendment. And if it gets killed?! Then stand up and decry the maneuver. Make hay about it instead of just flapping your gums.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:25 pm
Stones, I second your observation. Rauner didn’t win, Quinn lost. Same was true for the Rahm/Chuy charade, but don’t tell anyone at the Trib editorial board about that.

Comment by downstate Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:28 pm
The owls are not what they seem. (Obscure Twin Peaks reference of the day.)

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:28 pm
==These are smart people. I just don’t get how they don’t have this figured out.==

Perhaps they disagree with your conclusions.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:32 pm
Also, Sandack’s bit kinda gives lie to the whole “Dems miscalculated and now Rauner’s gonna scorch ‘em!” bromide. Rauner was ALWAYS going to scorch them. You don’t put $50 million in a few campaign accounts for decoration.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:38 pm
So let’s have some numbers? How will these ‘reforms’ fix a 3 1/2 % budget shortfall? Rather, since the ‘brilliant’ business man has line item veto and says there is waste to cut, well cut away. If he can’t deal with a 3 1/2% shortfall, without crying crisis, maybe he isn’t all that much of a business man.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:43 pm
=== The girls and boys in Voterland aren’t happy. ===

They’ve been unhappy for years. Folks like you have been making that obvious point for ages. That didn’t stop Blago from being re-elected. It didn’t stop Quinn from being elected. One of Willy’s points that your types keep failing to understand is that general attacks on Madigan may make you feel good, but they haven’t changed the bottom line. The Dems have been doing better in recruiting candidates and presenting issues favored in their districts than the GOP. Put all your eggs in the we hate Madigan/Cullerton bucket, but it’s the local battles that truly matter. Look who has the supermajority! That’s the message folks have been trying to tell you. Not that the public is happy.

=== They’re placing blame. The vast majority of it is going in one direction. ===

For now. Remember the Good Friday Massacre reaction. Rauner’s folks were required to respond to that fire. People react to stimulus. When your angry people see how Rauner hurts them, then he will experience blame.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:46 pm
A Guy: Ok, riddle me this: If Rauner won because he was such a good candidate and not because Quinn was so lousy, why did all those D voters stay home?

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:48 pm
Reading this is… puzzling.

===The sooner every voter understands not only who broke Illinois but who’s now refusing to accept real reforms, the sooner Madigan and Cullerton will have to accept a simple truth:===

“The sooner every voter understands…”

So, the Tribune is advocating the scorched earth style advertising to “help” voters understand… what, that Governors don’t own their own budgets? To that…

“…not only who broke Illinois but who’s now refusing to accept real reforms,..,”

Here it is. What @StatehouseChick and the Edit Board are trying so hard to “drive the result”, that blaming anyone but Rauner for Rauner’s decisions now, and cuts for FY2016, can not happen.

The Edit Board now frames this last part as, you guessed it, the “educating of the leaders that Rauner will take no responsibility as a givernir and..,

“the sooner Madigan and Cullerton will have to accept a simple truth:”

The simple… To digress for a moment, remember the tweet from @StatehouseChick about endorsing Rauner: “Simple. Change”. There’s that “simple again. Ok, the simple truth is the Tribune is willing to go all in for Rauner, even though the idea governors own things like this is destroying their own narrative.

Pretty simple.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:50 pm
Sandack makes me miss Bill Black.

Comment by readingisfundamental Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:52 pm
I should also point out the false dichotomy argument going on here (and in general.) EVEN IF Madigan/Cullerton are flat wrong does not mean Rauner is right.

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:53 pm
@OW-

Moreover, the Trib’s editorial belies the notion that the voters are *already* blaming Madigan and Cullerton. But frankly, so does the Governor’s stance. After all, if the voters were already blaming the Dems in any meaningful way, an ad campaign wouldn’t be necessary.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:55 pm
I expect that Rauner’s media blitz will be set up to have Madigan and Cullerton “own” the pension and borrowing financial disasters and he to own the “painful cuts” and cutting waste to right the good ship Illinois.

IMHO, he really hasn’t gone after the poor spending practices and used examples (like the Quinn last minute $440 million “pork) to turn the public against the “way things are done” in Springfield.

That would be a pretty powerful message.

Dem tax strategy has been to increase taxes so that 60% of the voters either don’t see their taxes increased, or won’t know they’re being increased since it will be reflected in price increases.

If you’re not in the 60%, they’ll nail you.

Rauners’ approach is to hit about 30-40% of the voters who want to take from the other 60% to fill their pockets. I expect he’ll appeal to that 60%, as well as having a pro-growth message that should resonate with the vast number of “out of the labor force” unemployed and underemployed.

It’s a tough task, but doable if the message is communicated correctly.

Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:55 pm
I hate twitter. And Ron Sandack should too. Because it makes him look like a complete @$$.

To the post… Hahahahahaha. Man, Trib, a media blitz isn’t gonna do a darn thing but further slow any progress toward positive government. Talk about delusional. But then again, you are the governor’s play thing, not a serious newspaper anymore.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:58 pm
I should clarify- “in any meaningful” means “in a way that threatens Democratic majorities in 2016 and beyond.” Because it’s silly to assume that voter discontent over a year before an election will translate into anything. Just ask Congressional Democrats.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:58 pm
I have big problem when 1 citizen of my state receives almost three quarter of a million dollars in Welfare!

And then tells Autistc Children they can go to he**!!!

Comment by Jack Stephens Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:00 pm
I missed the massive outpouring of public support for the “real reforms” of the governor’s legislative agenda when he took it on the road this Spring.

Did anyone get any pictures?

The Tribbies and others on the Pom-Pom squad talk in vague generalities, but break down the reality of tne agenda:

– Right to work and prevailing wage are dogs, going nowhere. The only peeps who showed up at all those local meetings were opponents.

– Workers comp and torts might have some room for compromise. What are we talking about, exactly?

– Term limits and redistributing reform certainly have shown to have a great deal of public support in the past. Too bad the gov’s citizen initiative on term limits was completely incompetent, or cynical, take your pick. The redistricting initiative (not his) was most definitely incompetent.

– I don’t understand the talk among some that there is a standoff over fhe the budget. That small issue hasn’t been addressed at all, as both sides have a need for at least $3 billion in new revenue.

That’s about where I see it on the issues.

I’ll leave it to the cool kids to debate the hottest topic on all Illinoisans minds this summer: who’s dreamiest, Bruce, Mike or John?

That’s all anyone is talking about.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:01 pm
If Bruce Rauner was capable of destroying the Illinois Democrats in the court of public opinion, why bother demanding that they cave?

Just do it.

Comment by Bill White Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:02 pm
Sandack keeps making these dumb mistakes because he is so used to being the cleverest person in the room, yet his twitter feed blasts multiple times a day to people outside the HGOP caucus.

Comment by crazybleedingheart Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:03 pm
===Willy’s points that your types keep failing to understand is that general attacks on Madigan may make you feel good, but they haven’t changed the bottom line. The Dems have been doing better in recruiting candidates and presenting issues favored in their districts than the GOP.===

Thank you, - Norseman -, that is the crux of why the GOP GA races find themselves at a disadvantage, but feel better while doing it. Appreciate your clarifying where the differences in thoughts meet.

- Team Sleep -, that’s been my frustration, glad to know in on good company and asking the right questions.

- Arsenal -,

===After all, if the voters were already blaming the Dems in any meaningful way, an ad campaign wouldn’t be necessary.===

Rauner needs to reinforce his mantra, for the simple reason, that unless Rauner/Tribune don’t say it enough, the destroying idea wrecking their narrative takes root. You make the solid point explaining the why. Well said.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:04 pm
I can’t wait to see the ads “My wife’s Chief of Staff recently told me that IL needs to start spending within our means.”

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:04 pm
===why bother demanding that they cave?===

Um, you gotta eventually have a budget.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:05 pm
@ Bill White

The issue is, they’re *already* destroyed. I can’t imagine how the GA/MJM/JCC approval ratings could get any lower. But people don’t vote for that, they vote for their local guy, and more local Dems won than local Republicans. An ad blitz isn’t going to undo that, and it’s not clear that it’s going to change the outcome in the next election, either.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:07 pm
===It’s a tough task, but doable if the message is communicated correctly.===

The message is easy.

But you can have all the campaign messages in the world. How does that necessarily translate into governmental success???

Aye, there’s the rub.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:08 pm
==But you can have all the campaign messages in the world. How does that necessarily translate into governmental success?==

I guess by spooking the other side into caving, but when Brandon Phelps responds to closings in his district by going all Braveheart on us, we seem to still be far away from that.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:13 pm
=== If Bruce Rauner was capable of destroying the Illinois Democrats in the court of public opinion, why bother demanding that they cave?

Just do it. ===

If Bruce Rauner is capable of destroying Illinois Democrats, he will do it even if they cave.

But if he is not capable of doing it, he might be capable AFTER they cave.

Which brings us to the Tribune:

=== Their party lost the governorship because the people of Illinois were fed up with the status quo. ===

Some would argue that Pat Quinn is no longer governor because he listened to the Chicago Tribune and passed pension reform.

Comment by Juvenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:13 pm
===Skeptic - Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 1:48 pm:

A Guy: Ok, riddle me this: If Rauner won because he was such a good candidate and not because Quinn was so lousy, why did all those D voters stay home? ===

Uh, gee Tennessee…uh, maybe it was because Medicaid quit carrying the cost for the ride to the polls.

Silly question gets a silly answer. The guy with the most votes wins. That’s how democracy works. In this case, he even got more than 50% of the vote; an achievement in these parts.

Quit the bellyaching analysis. People in Illinois are sick and tired of the way things were going. If anything, they’re more sick and tired of it now, since they already tried to do something about it.

Now, they’re being challenged to do more. They will. Keep up the skylarking and you’ll start seeing Hard Dem seats move into jeopardy. When the electorate is awake it becomes a mighty force. Keep teasing them at your own peril.

We’re just about there.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:18 pm
The Tribune’s editorial board is clueless yet again. They are also mistaken in thinking the public at large is as dumb as they are.

Comment by HGW XX/7 Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:20 pm
HGW, yep, that’s it.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:22 pm
A Guy: Might I suggest what you suggested…join the community debate team. Then maybe you could learn to come up with a logical argument. Rauner is good because Medicaid wouldn’t take people to the polls? What does that even mean?

I agree, people are fed up. I agree, Rauner won. I certainly will grant you that. But your ridicule of Stone’s comment is itself as ridiculous as it is unsupported.

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:27 pm
The people of Downers Grove should be be very proud.

Madigan has been pretty quiet compared to Rauner’s daily multiple media hits against him and I’m starting to wonder if that’s the intention. Don’t bother responding to Rauner’s accusations and threats and it eventually starts to look like he’s arguing with himself.

And I canceled my Trib subscription last week. It’s beyond absurd.

Comment by Politix Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:28 pm
Couldn’t agree more a guy!

Exactly how Democracy works. The Democratic Party controls 1 branch of government. They got more than 50% of the vote. Their constituents elected them.

The “republic” won and controls 1 branch of government.

I have some bad news for you. The branches of government are co-equal. Just because the “republic” won 1 does NOT trump the others. If you like to propose an Amendment to the Constitution to change that….then please do so.

Comment by Jack Stephens Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:29 pm
@Juvenal

You’ve done an excellent job of amplifying and explaining the point I wanted to make.

= = If Bruce Rauner is capable of destroying Illinois Democrats, he will do it even if they cave. But if he is not capable of doing it, he might be capable AFTER they cave. = =

Fortunately, I think MJM is savvy enough to know this and that brings us to Arsenal’s point.

Even if MJM and Cullerton have single digit approval ratings, state-wide, the IL GOP still needs 60 votes in the IL House.

And to “a guy” I’d like to paraphrase Barack Obama, “Governor, please proceed.”

Comment by Bill White Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:30 pm
A guy: thank you for your thoughtful, substantive comment. It really adds to the discussion and makes me think - as do so many of the items you frequently post.

Comment by Willie Stark Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:31 pm
===Keep up the skylarking and you’ll start seeing Hard Dem seats move into jeopardy. When the electorate is awake it becomes a mighty force. Keep teasing them at your own peril.===

What does this exactly… mean?

Rauner will run Dem candidates friendly to Rauner ideals, or Chicago Democratic seats, for example, will be “simply” flipping Republican?

At some point, Rauner needs a deal to the governing.

This isn’t a slam on Rauner; all governors need to govern, have budgets, run agencies effectively, and in the end, be the 1/3 of the Co-Equal government. That’s it. That IS the rub Rich points out, and is sometimes lost in all these discussions.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:32 pm
(Surfing around, I came across this and had to laugh: http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/17326/pat_quinn_bruce_rauner_pensions”

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:35 pm
==Quit the bellyaching analysis.==

Could you both? All we know for sure about the 2014 election is that a majority of voters preferred Bruce Rauner to Pat Quinn and GA Dems to GA Republicans. Ask 10 voters, you’ll get 11 different reasons why. Assigning broad opinions to the electorate is a mug’s game, and it’s no accident that we only ever give them the opinions that we agree with.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:35 pm
A Guy @ 2:18…. “Keep up the skylarking and you’ll start seeing Hard Dem seats move into jeopardy.”…LOL….The map is the map is the map..60/30….In Jan. 2017, after all the money is spent, after all the words of wisdom about the Dem’s demise, when the next GA is sworn in, the Dems will have at least 60/30 (probably 68/39) and re-elect Madigan Speaker and Cullerton Sen. Pres.

Comment by Are Ya Kiddin' Me? Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:39 pm
The power of propaganda, especially when you have the $$$$$$$$$$s behind it!

Comment by forwhatitsworth Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:40 pm
===The power of propaganda, especially when you have the $$$$$$$$$$s behind it! ===

Again, how EXACTLY does that get us from Point A to Point B on the budget and the Turnaround Agenda?

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:41 pm
== Their party lost the governorship because the people of Illinois were fed up with the status quo. That hasn’t changed. The people want to fix how this sorry state does business.==

When it says “the people of Illinois” does this mean every person in the state of Illinois?

Comment by forwhatitsworth Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:47 pm
The “Owl” has sewn his chute to Rauner and will go whatever direction the hot air is flowing. Eventually the hot air from the Trib will quit flowing and he crash down to Earth. His tweet of being ok with industry shows that he is OK with Rep lobbyists but not Dem lobbyists.

Comment by Runbikeswim Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:49 pm
Rauner won because he spent twice as much as Quinn. He apparently thinks that worked so well the public wants even more attack ads. Raise your hand if you want to be inundated with political ads all the time, every year instead of just in election years.

Comment by markg8 Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:56 pm
===Rauner is good because Medicaid wouldn’t take people to the polls? What does that even mean?===

You needed to have spent some formative years in Cook County to get this one. Sorry.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:57 pm
== ===The power of propaganda, especially when you have the $$$$$$$$$$s behind it! ===

Again, how EXACTLY does that get us from Point A to Point B on the budget and the Turnaround Agenda? ==

Rich … Exactly my point. Propaganda won’t get us from point A to point B, but will only continue to anger certain segments of the population and make Illinois a more unpleasant environment to live in. All part of the “divide and conquer” strategy that some people still believe in.

Comment by forwhatitsworth Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 2:59 pm
@ A Guy,
“Rauner is good because Medicaid wouldn’t take people to the polls? What does that even mean?…You needed to have spent some formative years in Cook County to get this one. Sorry.”

I’m not following, and have spent several years in Cook.

I’m sure you’re not suggesting that impoverished voters shouldn’t be allowed to vote, or that transportation provided to seniors for travel to polling stations are a problem? Or certainly you’re not suggesting that maybe perhaps GOTV efforts in minority communities should be pared back?

Because you’re getting awfully close. If you’re of voting age, I don’t much care who drives you to the poll. If want to vote, they are entitled to do it. Even if you disagree with them. It’s the beauty of the system.

Comment by How Ironic Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:09 pm
Supporting Rich’s point.

They can move Madigan’s general public image from mostly “Remind me who he is again?” all the way to “Public Enemy #1″ and it still won’t move the Turnaround Agenda very far. How exactly would that work?

It won’t substantially reduce democratic legislators’ likelihood to be reelected, except in maybe 3 or 4 districts, and it won’t immediately move enough votes on specific items.

Now applying enough money directly into local races, focused on local public figures, might have some impact.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:11 pm
==Now applying enough money directly into local races, focused on local public figures, might have some impact.==

Yeah- which is why, if I’m the Dems, I’d rather he spend part of his money on this, then all of it on that. I mean, I’d rather he spend none of of his money, overall, but that was never an option.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:13 pm
Re: Sandack.
What’s wrong with that guy?

Comment by Austin Blvd Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:18 pm
Without having seen the creative or knowing the media buy, it’s difficult to understand what the goal is of the governor’s coming media campaign.

Flipping votes? Who? On what? Why after May 31, when he needs more votes for everything?

Just negative branding against the Dems? Okay. But 18 months before the election, in summer? That’s supposed to be sticky?

And why do it before you’ve banked any victories?

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:24 pm
As others have noted, the timing seems odd. Is he afraid of an override and thinks he needs only one or two? If so, it just means that he’s the only one who thinks the Speaker actually has a functioning super majority.

Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:31 pm
How I, I’m thinking of actually putting sinister music to your response up there a few entries. Nice shot at “high-roadin’” me dude. I’m not implying….I’m out and out telling you that ambulances and fire engines and all manner of city vehicles were dispatched years ago to pick up voters at their homes…often when there was no request whatsoever; just an awareness that a household contained a voter who had not gotten to the polls at the 3 o’clock review. And again at 4. And 5. Always found this very amusing really. In dem days (sorry for the pun) the Alderman took a great deal of pride in voter turnout. It was…er…very smart to do on their part.

When your buddy asked why Dems stayed home, I offered this single suggestion. My time as a GOP judge on the Southeast side in those days was fascinating. There wasn’t such a hurry to get the Republican voters in. Pretty sure no one called them or sent a vehicle. And if they called, let’s say they didn’t get Uber style service.

Ah, the good ole days.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:42 pm
The longer Rauner rails against Madigan, the weaker his own position becomes. Next Trib editorial?

“Please, pretty please, give Rauner what he wants!”

Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:47 pm
We all know Rep Sandeck one of the most gifted leaders in GA…..if he is lookin’ for somethin’ to read he might try HB1287 As 5-8 covers all the bases….BVR already trashed at the slumber party for the out of towners before the amendments were posted. Real Smart.

Comment by Anonin' Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:53 pm
Do any non-Dem. staffers or non-Dem. sympathizers ever bother to post here?

Comment by Georg Sande Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:59 pm
A Guy: Ok, so what you’re stating as a fact is that there was actually MORE support for Quinn than we saw on election day (because Medicaid didn’t offer rides.) Then it follows that there is even LESS support (on a percentage basis) for Rauner and his policies than we saw on election day. Thank you for clearing that up for us.

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:59 pm
@Rich

The message is easy.

=But you can have all the campaign messages in the world. How does that necessarily translate into governmental success???

Aye, there’s the rub.=

I’d like to have the GA singggg in perfect harmony, I’d like give Springfield a toke, and keep it company….

Ooops, different “MADMEN”!

Seriously, you pull a “Dave”(the movie again, Word). YOU bring up examples of wasteful and ineffective spending, provide better alternatives that people want, and put the Springfield Madman on defensive.

Like a commercial with the following, “Mr Speaker, the taxpayers of Illinois are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to bloat the cost of public construction for labor rates far above state average in our schools, the state and municipalities. I’d rather spend some of that money to maintain care for the sick and elderly and autistic children. Do you REALLY want to have to tell them we have to cut their programs and support so that we can continue to pay far above average wages and benefits for public construction? I sure don’t…..”

“Mr Speaker, Illinois families are suffering through one of the worst recoveries from a recession in the nation, and our tax structure and business climate are driving good jobs away. Do you REALLY want to raise taxes on these families whose incomes have stagnated because of lack of growth and opportunity in Illinois, and take food off their table to make up for the lost revenues from anti-business policies? I sure don’t…”

You get the point. Make them defend bad spending choices, and let them try to defend all the patronage and cronyism they support.

Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 3:59 pm
=== Do any non-Dem. staffers or non-Dem. sympathizers ever bother to post here? ===

Sure, just like people who don’t have a clue and can’t read post here. Rich gets all types.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 4:02 pm
==Make them defend bad spending choices, and let them try to defend all the patronage and cronyism they support.==

That’s some pretty good state politics fanfic, but it doesn’t translate into governing success.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 4:10 pm
Skep, That Common Core math confuses me. lol

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 4:21 pm
I fondly recall many on this board pontificating on why Bruce Rauner would not win the Republican primary. And then they opined how Bruce could never be elected Governor.

So I read with some interest these same people offering all the reasons why Governor Rauner is sure to lose in this latest battle.

Rauner isn’t playing by the same playbook. He’s not motivated by the same thing as past Republican Governors.

He can play hardball, because what exactly does he have to lose? Madigan may be able to beat him, but the battle won’t end without lots of damage to Madigan and the Democrat brand.

Just yesterday, an owner of an assisted living facility noted that their Medicaid reimbursement has been cut, at the state, by 11%. They are upset, but they also realize that pain is going to have to be shared by all.

That will be strength of Bruce’s message, and opponents that try to explain otherwise will either look silly, or be buried by the media onslaught that is about to be delivered.

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 4:37 pm
===That will be strength of Bruce’s message, and opponents that try to explain otherwise will either look silly, or be buried by the media onslaught that is about to be delivered. ===

And this leads to a deal… how, exactly?

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 4:40 pm
Ok, I’ll try it this way;

Rauner needs 71 and 36. Rauner needs a deal, MJM and Cullerton, to the fault of cooperation needed.

Rauner and his Crew are begging for a deal, all the while allowing Rauner to poison the personalities, and MJM specifically, and including Cullerton in the lesser, answering and doubling down… to Rauner’s own… doubling down.

So all that said, all those cheering either “side”, either of the 3, the governing question for Rauner must be;

How do I get a governmental win, be gubernatorial, and make Rauner’s political hay have a governmental success, no matter how the Trib Edit Board wants to pretend it’s not on Rauner.

So, how is Rauner helping himself, arguing both as good cop AND bad cop?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 4:49 pm
So Guy, back when you witnessed fire engines and ambulances picking up “Democratic” senior citizens to go vote, where did they sit?

Did they get to run the sirens?

Wouldn’t it have been simpler to just, you know, pick them up in a car?

And somehow you tied that into Medicaid coverage?

You see lots of strange things, don’t you?

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 5:10 pm
Unfortunately the key to the Governor’s message worked very well in Wisconsin and that is relatively simple. Taxes can be contained or reduced by breaking public sector unions bargaining power and their links to elected Democrat politicans. But I think Rauner’s message is obscured with this turn around Illinois stuff and it will be confusing to the electorate. He has put too many issues in the pot at one time.

If Governor Rauner truly does not care if he is reelected then proceeding down this path of direct confrontation with the Speaker and Senate President may put in place eventually some of the right wing proposals he is espousing and a significantly reduced human services budget. I do think that it is almost intellectually incomprehensible to career politicans like the Speaker and Senate President that Governor Rauner doesn’t really care if he is seen as a super bad guy with lower polling numbers. Not accepting that the Governor may mean what he has said will lead to defeat for the Democrats in defending programs that will not be restored even with a Democrat in the Governor’s office in a few years.

The Democrats can’t be afraid of a shut down, they have to go toe to toe with the Governor. The Governor will only accept any compromise as a slow down in moving Illinois to the right and will attack year after year regardless of the near term electoral consequences. The high road will not work with Governor Rauner as he said during the campaign he is going to be a bull dog coming right at the Democrat leadership to break their grip on political power.

Ultimately the Democrats currently have some control over the third branch of government in the Illinois Supreme Court and they must maneuver the Governor into what might be plausible constitutional confrontations that can be used to their advantage. Will this be pretty - no it will not be.

Comment by Rod Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 5:13 pm
Rod, you’re kidding yourself to think that Rauner is not a politician. To date, that’s all he has been. We’re waiting on the governor part.

As for his not caring about his own personal popularity, he’s about to launch a full-blown ad campaign for himself three-and-a-half years before he’s up for re-election.

To the Scott Walker analogy, Walker had a GOP-controlled legislature, and he still didn’t cut taxes. Rauner won’t cut taxes, either, but raise them.

Other than that, spot on.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 5:35 pm
George Sande — yeah lots of non-Dems post here. Some of us are veterans of a number of GOP administrations. It’s just that as Rauner as head, we don’t recognize them anymore.

Comment by kimocat Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 5:37 pm
- kimocat -,

For Republicans now, it’s either you’re with Rauner, or not with Rauner.

The ILGOP is all but over. Your observation is very much on point.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 5:42 pm
=== He can play hardball, because what exactly does he have to lose? Madigan may be able to beat him, but the battle won’t end without lots of damage to Madigan and the Democrat brand. ===

And this will make Illinois a better state!

Comment by forwhatitsworth Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 6:17 pm
I admit I’m not the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to understanding all this political positioning/game playing. But I really wonder why the Dems don’t pass the Governor’s budget. The Governor is going to slash and trash the Dem budget anyway. (veto-line vetoes) Won’t having his own budget, that is billions off, put in front of him make his position even weaker? Make him be the one to suggest/find revenue sources? Take away his so called leverage? What am I missing? I’m sure it must be something.

Comment by Minnow Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 7:03 pm
=== Twitter
Blueroomstream
@Blueroomstream
The Chicago Tribune has eliminated 10 editorial staffers in a sweeping move to cut costs and shift resources to digital operations. ===

These must be the fact checkers. The Trib editorial bd. doesn’t worry about facts.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 8:58 pm
Especially if the ads target more than MJM and the other tops. If the mantra becomes focused on denigrating all dems, focusing ads on locals - specific to their home turf - vilifying them as the overall problem… It may impact ‘16. The general public want someone to blame, they may just listen to who speaks the loudest.

Comment by Property of IDOC Wednesday, Jun 3, 15 @ 9:50 pm
Minnow, as far as I know the Governor has not proposed a budget for the Dems to approve.

Comment by dzipio Thursday, Jun 4, 15 @ 6:11 am
From the Wikipedia entry on the “Guns of August”

“Throughout the [book], [Barbara] Tuchman constantly brings up a theme: the numerous misconceptions, miscalculations, and mistakes that she believed resulted in the tragedy of trench warfare . . . ”

Kudos to Rich Miller on his choice of headline

Comment by Bill White Thursday, Jun 4, 15 @ 8:03 am
Expanding on Tuchman, I’d highly recommend “The War that Ended Peace: The Road to 1914,” by Margaret Macmillan.

Also by Macmillan, “Paris, 1919″ on the Versailles Conference, a masterful and accessible one-volume history on how the U.S., Britain, France and Italy redrew as much of the world map as they could. It’s an indispensable grounding to understand what’s happened ever since, and what is happening today, particularly in the Middle East.

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Jun 4, 15 @ 8:21 am
===Also by Macmillan, “Paris, 1919″===

Excellent book.

Also, The Proud Tower, by Tuchman as well. Social and political events leading up to the Great War.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 4, 15 @ 8:23 am

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