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Think, don’t sing

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It seems to be an article of faith on the right that if Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner declares war and spends millions of dollars on TV attack ads targeting Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, Rauner will “win” and Madigan will “lose” and the speaker will be forced to negotiate with Rauner in good faith.

But I don’t think Madigan is going to cave any time soon.

When Senate President John Cullerton wanted to send the governor a separate education budget bill that exactly matched the governor’s own proposal, Madigan shot down the idea, reportedly because he didn’t want to take the chance that Rauner might sign it and schools would open on schedule this August.

In other words, the man appears serious about crashing the government if the governor declares all-out war.

In 2007 and 2008, when the world’s economy started to tank, Madigan ignored the growing economic and state fiscal disasters because he was determined to continue his fight with then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Madigan’s unwillingness to make peace is one reason the state was so ill-prepared to deal with the global crash.

Rauner has far more resources at his disposal than Blagojevich ever did, so the right’s firm belief in victory over Madigan seems unshakable. We’ve seen it in editorials, columns and press releases over the past several days, and we’re sure to see more.

But after talking with some top Rauner people, I don’t think…

Go read the whole thing before commenting, please. Thanks.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:06 am

Comments

This analysis seems spot on, but nothing will change. For Rauner, it’s a question of short=term sacrifice being worth the greater good. For Madigan, it’s about Madigan. It has always been about Madigan. And so the governor occupies the higher ground, which is the place you want to be when the shells start flying in earnest.

Comment by Onward Rauner Soldiers Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:18 am
Is the goal simply to hold out to make Rauner look increasingly like a partisan wacko? I mean, the more Madigan holds out, the louder Rauner (and Schrimpf and Trover) will get. Madigan keeps quiet, Rauner gets louder and louder — and looks increasingly tyrannical.

Seems like Madigan’s silence is what will eventually win — one way or the other.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:19 am
Rauner’s Waterloo?

Comment by DuPage Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:20 am
Excellent commentary. It all boils down to a stubborn shrewd businessman versus a stubborn shrewd politician. While they may both at times act like petulant toddlers, my money is still on Madigan. We may not always agree with him or his methods but IMHO nobody does what he does better.

Comment by Former Merit Comp Slave Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:21 am
Insightful and right. This is the culmination of decades of deals cut between both parties to serve mostly their own interests and not those of the people. Now the bills have come due and no one wants to pay. Unfortunately, the first to suffer will be the most needy and deserving. Anyone who has followed Wm Holland’s work over the years will see plenty of areas of waste and worse.

Comment by Weltschmerz Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:23 am
The winning strategy for Rauner might be to go dark. Quiet. And simply wait. But since he’s the governor, he’s supposed to broker these kinds of standoffs, no?

Plus, Rauner’s vanity won’t allow him to step back and simmer. It’s not in the GOP’s DNA. You’re either proactive and bombastic, or your yet another illogical liberal D. And anyone with national ambitions has to keep shaking the tree, looking for more elusive fruit, and threatening to chainsaw not only the tree but the forest. This gets the base fired up, makes money, and keeps them in the news.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:25 am
“Once the war begins, it will be almost impossible to stop.”
Prophetic final thought Rich.

Comment by Bluefish Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:29 am
When there are never any consequences for your actions, you tend to do whatever you please.

Madigan doesn’t have to worry about being re-elected. He controls the Illinois Democratic Party. He believes he is invincible, and so far, that seems to be true.

On whose watch were the pensions underfunded? On whose watch did the state’s economy fail to recover? On whose watch has Illinois fallen into a hole it can’t climb out of?

I’m not a Rauner fan, but he makes a good point that business as usual in Springfield seems to be Madigan’s way. If it has been Madigan’s way for the past three decades, why isn’t Madigan being held responsible?

Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:30 am
“This gets the base fired up, makes money, and keeps them in the news.” Indeed, and simultaneously drives the wedge in further making compromise all but impossible.

Comment by Skeptic Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:31 am
For all the praise thrown at MJM around here, what’s clear is the fact his days of running this state into the ground are nearing an end. Yet he’ll do whatever it takes to hold power. He doesn’t care about anything else but that.

Comment by William Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:34 am
Madigan went so far as preventing schools from opening on time this August? For real?

If true, how does he plan to “win” when he snatched the “you are making children and the middle class suffer” accusations constantly made against Rauner and pinned them on himself by refusing to allow schools to open on time?

Is that how the rest of you Democrats feel? Hold schools hostage?

I still can’t believe I read that in your column Rich!

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:35 am
—
If it has been Madigan’s way for the past three decades, why isn’t Madigan being held responsible?
—

He’s held responsible every time he’s up for election. The fact he keeps winning — and winning — is a mandate on his responsibility. That’s the point of democracy. You’re routinely held responsible.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:35 am
Good Analysis. Hard to imagine any conclusion good go very far beyond a “We’ll see”. We’re in uncharted waters on both sides. Hard to know how anyone, including the principals, could know with any certainty where this is heading.

The public has a chance to play a greater role than anytime in the past. So, we’ll see.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:37 am
Re: Ads

So amazing what money is being spent on in a BROKE state. Think of where else those millions and millions could go…………

Comment by AnonymousOne Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:37 am
Blago shot himself in the foot(head actually) with all of the illegal activity from the get go. Madigan just had to wait on the Feds. Rauner is not vulnerable in that way so this may be a much bigger challenge for Madigan

Comment by jeffinginchicago Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:41 am
The Nuclear Option is engaged by both.

===Once the war begins, it will be almost impossible to stop.===

Yep. If either side thinks destroying everything to win whatever is left, all are missing the point to governing;

Doing what is best, in the best possible way, for the state of Illinois, but not at the cost of the citizenry and their rights.

Neither will back down? It’s true, because now, it’s beyond personal, beyond ideological, it’s even beyond true believers.

“I want to own the scorched earth.”

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:42 am
Good column Rich. There has to be dramatic changes in the way this state is run and although the Governor’s methods may be over the top, acquiescing to what Madigan wants is not the solution for Illinois, IMO.

Comment by Peoria Guy Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:46 am
Guess I should have read this analysis before commenting on your weekly column, Rich. Now I am pessimistic again. At some point, Mr. Madigan needs to be taken out but I don’t for the world see how. Rauner may be over-reaching reality.

Comment by Skirmisher Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:49 am
Yikes! This is very scary.

Comment by NewWestSuburbanGOP'er Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:51 am
Dear God this stuff scares me. But it does make me wonder if we will see viable “independant” candidates next round?

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:51 am
===But it does make me wonder if we will see viable “independant” candidates next round?===

Nope.

It’s Raunerite or not Raunerite?

Why?

When a man, personally, says he will spend $20 million in 20 races, it’s not traditional party dynamics.

No independent will find their way on the ballot, let alone in a race.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:54 am
Where are all the level-headed thinkers of either party? Will we ever see someone who like Paul Simon ever again?

Comment by NewWestSuburbanGOP'er Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 9:55 am
Rauner must create a sense of panic on the part of the at-risk members. In order to do so he must run the member-specific ads and field trained and paid door-knocking field workers. He had the first credible presence of some of those people in target areas this last November — so they are around somewhere. Ads alond won’t cut it.

Comment by Chad Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:00 am
Rich, I believe your prediction is spot on and that is my fear.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:00 am
The budget is a relatively easy fix, since they both recognize the need for billions more in revenue. I suspect the Bad Opera will end before the threat of schools not opening on time becomes real.

From the governor’s standpoint, he has to make a lot of noise for his donors before he signs a tax increase. But he must realize by now that he can’t achieve the most reactionary elements of legislative agenda in the short term. He didnt build public support for it in the campaign and just doesnt have the horses in the GA.

There’s no point in the Dems buckling in fear of the coming negative TV spots, because those were going to happen no matter what they did.

For the governor to achieve the goals of his national special interest donors, he will need to play the long game over a few election cycles.

See “20 Races, A Million Each,” above.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:07 am
We’re about to find out the answer to what happens when an irresistible force meets and immovable object.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:08 am
Madigan, like every other thing he does, likely has a plan for when he wants to leave the scene.
With regard to why the H and S passed a budget that falls short of revenues, it was merely a reordering of priorities created by Rauner’s own unbalanced budget. It’s that simple.
If anything, this overtime skirmish is what Rauner wants and needs to win this all out nuclear war to take out Madigan.
It is so unfortunate that the media establishment is so scornful and hateful of Madigan that they fail to see that …PERHAPS…the Democrats simply have constituencies that are important to them.
Very sad indeed.

Comment by Austin Blvd Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:10 am
“Once the war begins, it will be almost impossible to stop.” Indeed, I fear, prophetic words. If we’re talking Germany, this feels more like 1914, than 1939.
What I take from your reporting Rich, is that Madigan will deal, but on his terms. Which leaves it to Rauner to take ” yes” for an answer. I don’t think that they are willing, or capable of doing so.

Comment by West Sider Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:13 am
The singing has begun. Money has emboldened the GOP like they’ve never been in years. It’s miserable being in the minority for so many years. They see the money as an opportunity to get back to relevancy. Of course, the Dems are focused on maintaining their majority.

Rauner’s Schlieffen Plan of striking quick to force major concessions has failed. The antagonists have now hit the trenches and the damage is being done. The Illinois civilians can only hope that both sides realize the futility and agree to a truce before Christmas.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:14 am
It seems that Rich’s advice is not going over well with most commenters. Yikes.

Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:16 am
Besides beating the Speaker, what is the ultimate goal/prize for Rauner? Does the prize have anything to do with converting IL to a Tea Party state?

Comment by Mama Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:19 am
An ad war attacking madigan, cullerton, and the dems wont magically energize the general public to somehow pressure the dems to capitulate. After the novelty of the level of vitriol in the first barrage wears off, i think the public will be disgusted with all of the participants. Everyone will know rauner is behind it, but it would be a mistake if he is the voice of the attacks.

It will be hard to convince the public of the greater benefits of rauners agenda versus the devestation of rauners hacking
away at programs.

Widen your view a bit, and remember we may have a contract impasse (or even layoffs), lockout, govt shutdown, budget mess, all at the same time. Its hard to believe rauner can convince the public that all of these ills are the fault of unions and dems and his agenda is the answer.

Comment by Langhorne Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:29 am
=Besides beating the Speaker, what is the ultimate goal/prize for Rauner?=

Good question. Part of the dilemma that Rauner faces is that it’s hard to see how any aspect of his “turnaround agenda” fixes the problems at hand. It certainly doesn’t in the short-term and it’s debatable as to whether or not it will produce any results in the long term. I can’t see how RTW, workers’ compensation and tort reform do anything to fix the current mess.

When it’s all said and done this is more about who will own the massive cuts and tax increases that are sure to come. Neither Madigan or Rauner can walk away from this. It’s more of a question of the extent to which they can minimize any personal damage.

Comment by pundent Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:31 am
When my sisters and I fought as kids, my mother would threaten to bang our heads together to knock some sense into us. Somebody should do that for real with Rauner and Madigan.

Comment by JoanP Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:33 am
Good column but I would argue that the war has already begun.

Comment by Stones Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:36 am
Austin, I see no reason to believe that Madigan has a plan to leave the scene, except for when the bell tolls.

Didn’t we spend about twelve years listening to genius inside-dope guys like Kass tell us that every move was part of the Lisa for Governor Conspiracy? Has anyone ever been that wrong for so long?

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:40 am
Like all wars, this one is about egos and ideology; to believe that either side cares about the ultimate condition of the general populace is to also believe in Santa Claus and the tooth fairy. It is too early to even estimate how much harm and damage will be inflicted, but it is realistic to predict that when all the dust clears both Rauner and Madigan, both a bit wounded and roughed-up, will continue to maintain their respective life styles unlike the citizens who will have to deal with all the negative, destructive residual consequences.

Comment by Buzzie Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:47 am
== I can’t see how RTW, workers’ compensation and tort reform do anything to fix the current mess. ==

Not this budget year, but work comp and tort reform has the potential to improve the business climate in Illinois and result in greater revenue. RTW won’t and should be dropped.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 10:58 am
== When my sisters and I fought as kids, my mother would threaten to bang our heads together to knock some sense into us. Somebody should do that for real with Rauner and Madigan. ==

The only one who could have credibly done that was Judy and she’s no longer with us.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 11:01 am
Slinger has said much of what I believe.

The budget will come together, because Rauner needs it as much as Madigan, they’re not that far apart, and blaming the other side for not having it will run out of steam.

The Turnaround Agenda, and its corollary the destruction snd replacement of the powers that be in Springfield, will be the longer term war. Both sides appear to have already committed to it.

Rauner’s short term hope is that public disgust with the current problems in Illinois will grow. With massive media buys badmouthing Illinois, and Springfield, this could work.

Madigan’s hope is that Rauner’s solutions to the problems will eventually become clear and be rejected by the public. That could take too long to have political impact this cycle. They’re just beginning to see it in Wisconsin, Louisiana, and Kansas, after years of falling short of promises.

Comment by walker Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 11:03 am
Free Ralph Martire.

Comment by Onward Rauner Soldiers Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 11:03 am
Walker, you are on the money in my view. Public perception is going to be key to see which one is gonna blink and figure they better cut a deal before the optics on their side gets worse.

Comment by Kodachrome Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 11:11 am
all out war, maybe. and we know who makes the money in war, the defense industry. saddle up, consultants.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 11:36 am
I dislike both Rauner and Madigan, since neither seems to believe much in democracy and the freedom to vote your own mind, but hard to put the majority of the problem on Madigan here. He made a deal with Rauner and the Good Friday Massacre ensued, followed by (or continuing with) a barrage a corrupting money and government-by-press-release.

Comment by The Equalizer Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 11:42 am
Listening to Rauner and his gang, I feel as though their belief is that because he was elected governor, the General Assembly is suddenly supposed to acquiesce to his plan.
Last I checked, we still have representative government and I don’t think it’s a surprise to anyone but BVR that the majority party in the legislature isn’t willing to roll over on its ideologies.
To modify what RNUG said above, it’s the immovable object meeting another immovable object.

Comment by PJ Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 12:04 pm
It makes moving back to France just that much more desirable.—–TJ

Comment by Thomas Jefferson Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 12:26 pm
Neither man will regret the resulting carnage of their personal war.

Comment by Wensicia Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 12:32 pm
Nice Piece. Reminded me of the old french and english wars…. The nobles went mostly unscathed, but the arnies would reak havoc upon the peasant villages, wiping out people and food… Leaving behind a starving miserable populace….

Comment by Lahkonysm Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 1:24 pm
The “Guns of August ” theme is good rhetoric but overstates the seriousness of the conflict. A few will die when services are cut, but not tens of thousands. More will be harmed. Bankruptcies will spike as cash flow stops.
It will be brutal for some, mildly harmful to more, and barely noticed by many. (Unless schools fail to open, then the public will be fully engaged and angry. )
The WWI analogy works in that the outcome is unknown and change could be great. This could weaken Madigan’s power or effectively end the Republicans as a statewide party.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 2:12 pm
Rauner and Madigan are so much alike it is uncanny. Would love to hear ol’ Marlin Perkins describe these two beasts fighting to the death to be leader of the herd.

Comment by illinoised Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 2:14 pm
===overstates the seriousness of the conflict===

Yeah. So?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 2:17 pm
As usual, Illinois has powerful politicians in place doing battle with each other for control. Absent are “statesmen” who would unselfishly do what is best for all, rather than entrench themselves in their political positions. As long as we keep electing them, nothing will change.

Comment by One of the 35 Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 2:41 pm
Compromise isn’t possible because the the GOP only has 33 votes for the budget in the House, which means the majority of votes will have to come from Democrats, yet the governor wants to split the budget gao down the middle and load it up with his “TOA”.

The TOA is intended to keep Democrats from getting to 28 in the House, at which point Rauner would have to embarrassingly admit he doesn’t have the votes he suggested.

In short, Rauner tried to bluff Democrats, but Madigan raised on his bluff, Rauner re-raised, Madigan re-raised, and now everyone is pot-committed.

Comment by Juvenal Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 3:11 pm
@Last Bull Moose - I think even one person dying due to budget games is too much, don’t you?

Comment by Tournaround Agenda Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 4:16 pm
Rich,
People who think they are going to war will do things they would never do to settle a civil dispute. If the participants lose perspective, they will cause avoidable harm.
You are right to warn against reckless actions. I am adding the need to keep actions in perspective to the goals.

Turnaround Agenda. We make decisions all the time that change the odds of someone living or dying. The $250 million cut in road maintenance will probably kill at least one person. It will certainly increase car maintenance for some drivers.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 5:52 pm
I would not fault John Kass for discussing the Lisa Madigan gubernatorial plan. Many people thought that Lisa Madigan was being groomed for the position when she ran for AG in 2002, but the economy tanked and derailed or delayed the plan.

It’s like the brand new airport in Peotone or the slots at horse racing tracks. Not all promises can be delivered on schedule, if at all.

Comment by Under Further Review Monday, Jun 8, 15 @ 8:04 pm