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Rauner’s million dollar buy will target Madigan

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* As I told subscribers this morning, the Rauner TV advertising buy isn’t $450,000, it’s actually a million dollars statewide, and it targets House Speaker Michael Madigan but not Senate President John Cullerton. Greg Hinz has more…

Sources who would know have since confirmed the report and say the ad will target only Madigan and not Senate President John Cullerton, also a Democrat.

Cullerton indeed can be somewhat more conciliatory than the speaker. But I have real doubts whether the obvious divide-and-conquer tactic will work. More likely, what is expected to be a quite personal attack will juice up what already is a highly polarized environment in Springfield over the fiscal 2016 budget, Rauner’s “turnaround” agenda and related matters, probably assuring a summer full of all-out political nastiness. […]

“I think (Rauner) is dead wrong,” [House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie] said. “I don’t know that it’s a particularly useful tactic if you want to get a budget settlement . . . What is he thinking?”

Rauner may be going after just Madigan now and not Cullerton, but, “Maybe it will be all about John next week,” Currie said. “Who knows? . . . It doesn’t set a very pleasant table for negotiations—or work when you come to (the 2016) elections.”

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:28 pm

Comments

Outside of his own legislative district, isn’t Madigan already perceived as Illinois’ top political Bogeyman? The anti-Madigan stuff has been tried before. What makes anyone think it will work this time?

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:34 pm
Politics is a rough and tough business. If you can’t stand the heat get out of he kitchen. Madigan seems like a pretty tough guy.

Comment by Apocalypse Now Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:36 pm
Madigan’s more widely known. I think he’d be easier to cut a deal with though than Cullerton. But my guess is you take the swing at the better known name.

Comment by Bill Baar Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:36 pm
Gov. Rauner negotiating in “good faith,” everyone.

Comment by Tournaround Agenda Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:37 pm
This is Sonny going after Bruno Tataglia, at the cost of everything else.

Rauner wants Madigan, the rest of governin’ will haveta suffer.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:37 pm
47th Ward: Because this time, the effort has significant resources behind it.

Comment by Sage Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:39 pm
Definitely a “Sonny” move.

Comment by Austin Blvd Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:39 pm
- Apocalypse Now -,

How is this helping in getting a budget deal?

Please explain.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:42 pm
I don’t see how an aggressive, personal attack against Madigan helps Rauner. Does he really think people will be impressed with a knock-down, drag-out fight between two men while the state is held hostage?

Comment by Wensicia Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:43 pm
I dont see the point. Are these ads to push his agenda or to personally attack Madigan. If its the later what does he expect to gain from such an attack, especially during budget negotiations? Maybe Im not politically savy enough to understand.

Comment by Union Dues Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:43 pm
Madigan has always been Batman and Cullerton Robin. Both these guys got us here . They are a part of the problem and the solution.

Comment by Mokenavince Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:44 pm
Good to see Pat “Fire Madigan” Brady back at the helm. He can explain the “my donors are taxpayers” line as an excuse to evade state campaign/procurement laws, Butler’s decision to cash his $8K rental payment, using an out of town law firm for Turnaround IL and bungling Zell’s $4 million check and BVR’s “imaginary friend” (aka the budget he keeps cutting)

Talk around IL this weekend had more than a few referring to TeamBungle schemes as “breaks For Bosses”

Comment by Anonin' Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:44 pm
“Maybe we can declare war on just the Kingdom of Serbia without annoying the Russians…” — Franz Joseph, Emperor of Austria, King of Hungary, Croatia & Bohemia (attributed).

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:47 pm
The ads haven’t yet run but they’re already working. #Genius

Comment by Georg Sande Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:49 pm
===The ads haven’t yet run but they’re already working. #Genius===

How so? Show your work…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:51 pm
This just seems so wrong headed for Rauner to be polluting the public airways with this nonsense. He needs to park his rear in Springfield and get down to negotiating instead of throwing more bombs to further polarize and jade the public.

Comment by vole Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:52 pm
I don’t know that I have ever talked to anyone who does not feel that Madigan’s desire to retain power at all costs is the root cause of most of Illinois’ financial difficulties. That is not entirely fair, but it is apparently a strongly held opinion in central Illinois. That being said, he also seems as firmly entrenched as ever and it seems inconceivable that someone as politically clumsy as Rauner will take him out. I guess this battle has to be joined sooner or later, but I wish I had more confidence in the challenger! 5:1, Madigan.

Comment by Skirmisher Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:55 pm
I live in a conservative area (I am a rare liberal in our fair community). I am hearing a lot of anti-Rauner talk, focused on “he tricked us into voting for him.” I, for one, am happy about the attack ads because they will backfire on him - citizens are fed up. I think Rauner is getting bad advice or he is consulting himself before making his decisions.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:55 pm
=== I dont see the point. ===

The frat boys think this will scare the rank and file Dems into a mutiny against Madigan. That’s not going to happen.

- Madigan controls what gets voted on by the House. A mutiny will only harden Madigan’s heart.

- Dem deserters will have to consider whether that desertion will help them in the next campaign. Do they think GOP will give them a pass for this action? Do they think they’ll part of the Rauner money for the desertion? I don’t think they see enough positive answers to cross the line.

- Money helps, but the Dems also depend upon a ground game. Side with Rauner and that ground game will go away or be focused against the traitors.

I don’t believe this moves the FY 16 budget ball forward. But, the frat boys will have fun.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 12:58 pm
I don’t think Rauner realizes even if everyone outside of Madigan’s district hates Madigan, the people in his district are not going to vote him out of office.

I lived in Ravenswood Manor in the Blago years, and while I didn’t vote for him, I didn’t mind that they plowed our alleys.

Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:00 pm
Obviously Rauner is not serious about a budget.

Comment by DuPage Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:01 pm
Forgot another question for Dem legislators considering voting for the Gov. Will Rauner promise you a job should you get defeated.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:02 pm
Whenever I think of Bruce Rauner I get a mental picture of that guy they call “Mr. Wonderful” on the television series “Shark Tank”. He is all business and he really doesn’t care if he is liked or not. He is goal-oriented and even though potential entrepreneurs (and several of his “fellow sharks”) may not like him or his methods, the fact is that “Mr. Wonderful” is very effective in what he does. Perhaps he would be even more effective if he had a heart but then again, maybe not. Rauner is goal-oriented and he has seen that being conciliatory toward Madigan does not help you get closer to the goal post. It simply “kicks the can” further on down the road by taking the easy way out and being another of Madigan’s lap dogs. Rauner is going to use his bloody pulpit to make sure that Madigan gets the credit for where Illinois financially finds itself. Rauner will need the Feds to help him find something on Madigan if he ever hopes to break Madigan’s firm stranglehold on control of Illinois state government. Good luck Mr. Wonderful. You have my support.

Comment by Ethan Hawk Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:04 pm
So what ballot is Madigan on this year? Who are these ads motivating, and what action are they pushing those people to take?

Only a neophyte would think that this gambit is going to cause Madigan to cave in. On the other hand, if the objective is to ensure the stalemate stays in place past July 1 (or August 1, or September…), then this may be the ideal way to make that happen. Then the question, of course, is who would want to deliberately prolong the stalemate and to what end?

Comment by South of Sherman Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:04 pm
This is Rahm v. Madigan, rauner is just a pawn.

Comment by William j Kelly Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:05 pm
==the fact is that “Mr. Wonderful” is very effective in what he does.==

And thus, the distinction between him and Governor Rauner.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:08 pm
I remain unconvinced that Madigan’s approval ratings can be driven any lower.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:09 pm
If BFC says that, I would definitely proceed with the ads.

There is a method to the madness for Bruce.

Comment by anon Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:10 pm
===So what ballot is Madigan on this year? Who are these ads motivating, and what action are they pushing those people to take?===

From “Body of Lies”…

Roger Ferris: I thought you didn’t believe in torture, Hani Pasha.

Hani: This is punishment, my dear. It’s a very different thing.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:11 pm
Rauner will be successful only if he has his own version of the Moody brothers.

Comment by Hedley Lamarr Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:12 pm
As I’ve mentioned before, judging from the emails I get, the suburban democrats feel vulnerable to attacks that they’re not bringing home the bacon. Right now I’m looking at the sidebar on the blog and it has the Journal Register saying “Gov. Rauner criticizes Democratic lawmakers’ loyalties to Chicago.” I expect you’ll hear this theme more in the future - the ads aren’t targeted at getting Madigan out of office but causing him trouble with the suburban swing district members of his and Cullerton’s caucus. Indeed, this is only a “stalemate” because Madigan/Cullerton either don’t have the votes to flex their supermajority muscles or they are afraid to use them.

Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:12 pm
Hopefully this will all be over before late August, when the Bears start playing.

Like many people, I never watch live TV except for sports so until then, these ads will be easy to ignore.

Comment by Gooner Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:16 pm
===This is punishment, my dear. It’s a very different thing.===

Great stuff there.

This is retaliation, this is punishment placed on MJM for not doing what Rauner demands.

It’s not negotiating. No way. Like Tattaglia, this is punishment, plain and simple.

It made me, at least rethink;

Ok, Sonny retaliating for results, right?

Nope, I missed it. Sonny retaliating here, like this, because he can.

It’s not about the deal, making a deal, leveraging a deal.

My personal mistake, thinking Rauner is leveraging a deal. My failure.

Rich is Spot On.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:16 pm
Rauner is spending $1 million to cry the State is poor and it’s all Madigan’s fault.

Counter intuitive and counter productive.

Punishing and ridiculing is not governing.

Comment by Chicago 20 Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:19 pm
First, Rauner got elected - but the Democrats held onto their majority without a problem. Rauner spent millions trying to buy a friend in the GA, but it didn’t work at all.

Then Rauner has revealed himself to be a man disinterested in governing. He has spent six months playing politics. The mandate he got in November vaporized as the Governor traveled the state proposing anti-unionism and any town with curbs and sidewalks, voted Rauner down.

Now - Rauner thinks he is going to build upon his vaporized mandate as though Illinoisans have actually enjoyed and supported his new administration? What planet has he been on?

Illinoisans are indeed a bit tired of this budget battle, but they are just as tired of this governor’s political excuses and attacks. Rauner has not done himself a favor since his inauguration. He has exposed himself as a man who would NOT have been elected if he told the truth.

I just don’t believe a million dollars spent upon any TV ad campaign is going to change anything. Rauner had something a whole lot more important and powerful than a TV ad campaign - and he blew it. He can’t buy back what he has lost.

Rauner has exposed himself as the Scrooge that Pat Quinn claimed he was - and then some. Rauner proved to his supporters and independent voters that he was willing to tell us lies to get elected. The problems he faces today as governor are of his own making. The depth of the bad PR cycle he finds himself was made by his own actions and his own mouth.

It will take more than a million dollar anti-Speaker TV campaign to get back what Mr. Rauner so carelessly threw away.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:20 pm
What if he drops his first ad tonight during the Stanley Cup finals?!

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:21 pm
=How is this helping in getting a budget deal?

Please explain.=
We will know, when the budget deal gets done.

Comment by Apocalypse Now Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:21 pm
OW, I think the last 40 years have shown us that MJM is more Barzini than Tattaglia. Confusing the two may be Rauner’s real error here.

Hedley, nice shout out to the Moodys. I think the legislative races in 2014 showed that the GOP do not have their own version.

Comment by Snucka Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:22 pm
Sorry - that was a bit of blunted post. I should’ve added that such a move would certainly grab people’s attention while they’re focused on a huge game with plenty of local relevance.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:23 pm
==they are just as tired of this governor’s political excuses and attacks==

I don’t see any evidence of this. I do see evidence that people were unkind to the anti-union moves, and that that took it’s toll on Rauner. I also see some evidence that that is still the primary thing people associate with Rauner (the second thing they seem to want to talk about is staffer pay). As far as the budget goes, so far it all seems like Democrats acting like Democrats and Republicans acting like Republicans. But that is solely my anecdotal experience.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:24 pm
===Whenever I think of Bruce Rauner I get a mental picture of that guy they call “Mr. Wonderful” on the television series “Shark Tank”. ====

Careful. Cullerton is the ‘original’ Mr. Wonderful from waaaay back.

Comment by Joe Schmoe Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:31 pm
Rauner doesn’t want to pass a budget. He doesn’t want to come to terms with aafscme either. He wants chaos and he hopes the people of Illinois will blame the Dems and the unions. So the war for Illinois will happen. There won’t be a budget come July 1 and state workers will more than likely have to strike. Who gets the blame? That is the question.

Comment by DHSJim Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:35 pm
Once again, when Rauner doesn’t get his way, he goes with the “I will bury her/him” school of bully business/political activities.

Comment by Joe M Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:35 pm
The Governor didn’t get to his level of success without knowing how to negotiate.

But, when the negotiations start to make some progress, he steps in front of the news cameras and starts calling the Democratic leadership corrupt. You would have to stupid to not know what the result would be.

If/when we blow past the deadline and people start to feel the pain of even a partial state shutdown, it will be just what the governor wants.

Comment by JustWhatHeWants Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:36 pm
Vanilla Man wrote “..although Illinoisans have actually enjoyed and supported his new administration? What planet has he been on?”

One thing they may have supported was/is that boost in their paycheck they’ve seen since January. If his ads remind everyone of Quinn’s “it’s gonna happen” comments and tries to pin them on the Dems actions now, I could see that having some effect. Not *endorsing* Rauner in this regard, just saying that the Dems have to sell themselves better than I think they have been: that it’s about roads and curves and not fat pensions.

Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:37 pm
===This is punishment, my dear. It’s a very different thing.===

Some expensive punishment. A better question would be to solve what?

In business, when things get ugly and deals go bad you can always refuse to deal again or negotiate with a different company.

Does Rauner not get that he has to “deal” with these guys next year, and the year after, and the year after. And on budgets, lawmaking, rulemaking, etc. etc.

Seriously, does he honestly not get this or does he get it and not care?

Comment by Abe the Babe Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:37 pm
- Snucka -

…and we all know how Don Vito saw the Barzini-Tattaglia… relationship.

To go further into my own “awakening” that I need to just give up that it’s punishment, and put a period after that, I look at the Ad buy and the “leverage” and the maneuvers by both GOP Caucuses differently now;

It’s not with hopeful eyes of riding out stormy weather. It’s now with an eye of what is going to survive after the punishments are stopped.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:37 pm
Sorry VM - misquoted your post - should have been “as though”

Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:38 pm
OW, I disagree, not a Sonny move, but more like Woltz trying to tell Hagen, “I ain’t no bandleader”,…I’m assuming the nephew will end up with role, be a big star! … Go hawks!

Comment by Subzero Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:41 pm
Ethan Hawk - Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:04 pm:

Rauner is going to use his bloody pulpit …..

I’m thinking it was a typo but so spot on!!!

Comment by WeeblesWobble Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:43 pm
Many may be looking at these ads as the “after” a failed session, more than the “before” of the next GA races. Petitions start circulating in a couple months.

This could be the start of a long drumbeat that will get refined as time goes along. The house seats may just be more attainable than the Senate seats at the moment. But if some momentum builds there, more senate seats will be targeted too.

It’s more turf than the Speaker has ever had to cover before. There are more resources on the opposite side than the Speaker. This is new territory. Every war features the latest and greatest new weaponry. Madigan has been the King of the Hill for a long time. Going after him first can hardly be considered that surprising.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:46 pm
Rauner has shown he’s not politically clumsy. He won his election. He stood by while the GA ran through into special session without addressing either main issue voters want fixed. He put a huge PAC together and placed his markers. His Trib fires with the $400M Quinn giveaway OpEd. Solid downstate D’s like Phelps talk about going to the mattresses to hang onto a seat that should be a no-brainer retainer.

Perhaps a draconian balanced budget would have been a better response than a double down shortfall. “Look, this is what Rauner really wants — pain and misery. Don’t believe us, look at the budget he demanded.”

Comment by Tourés Latte Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:47 pm
- A Guy -,

The second that ILGO finances a Democratic Primary Opponent, the Rod Blagojevich dream of one caucus for the governor will be realized as being at play.

Raunerites, in their full glory, will be born.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:50 pm
==Many may be looking at these ads as the “after” a failed session, more than the “before” of the next GA races.==

I don’t think anyone’s making that mistake. The problem is, if it’s awfully tough to make ads two summers before an election sticky, and you run the risk of turning your message into white noise by Election Day.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:51 pm
Or it could be that Rauner knows better than to engage in a battle of wits with a Sicilian when the budget is on the line.

Comment by Michelle Flaherty Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:54 pm
===Petitions start circulating in a couple months.===

Authority to spend state funds expires in two weeks.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:54 pm
Any time you want to Govern Bruce the residents of the State of Illinois would appreciate it.

Thank you!

Comment by Jack Stephens Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:56 pm
===- Apocalypse Now - Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:21 pm

=How is this helping in getting a budget deal?

Please explain.=
We will know, when the budget deal gets done.===

Either try, or just admit your drive-bys are useless in discussions here.

It’s getting tired.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:04 pm
Rookie mistake by the Governor. Some of you are commenting like you think this is The Speaker’s first rodeo..

Comment by Mouthy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:05 pm
Smart to target Madigan only rather than Madigan + Cullerton - most scary movies have one main villain.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:09 pm
If your only tool is your check book, every problem looks like it can be bought.

Comment by vole Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:10 pm
The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Comment by SouthernILGirl Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:10 pm
“Again I saw that under the sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all.” - Ecclesiastes, 9:11

“But the one who endures to the end will be saved.” - Matthew, 24:13

Comment by Juvenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:18 pm
As an aside, having the indpendent expenditure PAC run these ads creates a real troubling negotiating dynamic if we are to believe these are designed to bring the Democrats to the table. Assume there’s a willingness to do something in the end, part of any ideal will have to involve shutting off the ads and Rauner will be forced to either say, “There’s nothing I can do” or violate the law.

Comment by Conn Smythe Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:18 pm
==This is punishment, my dear. It’s a very different thing.==

That nails it!

Nobody has ever beaten Madigan into submission, so torture wouldn’t work anyway.

Comment by no prob Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:20 pm
Rauner is use to walking all over people to get his way. As has been said before, he has no control over the senate and the house. This is a bone head move when he should be searching for compromise. The state didn’t get in this mess overnight and we sure won’t get out of it overnight either.

Comment by The Colossus of Roads Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:22 pm
Willy, “thinking Rauner is leveraging a deal. My failure . .” actually not Willy. We are talking about neither leveraging a budget deal or punishment, we are talking about a strategy to move Illinois totally out of the blue column.

Governor Rauner repeatedly said pretty much that while on the campaign trail, along with comments about not being afraid of shutting down the State. He is a true believer in markets and wealth creation, Democrats are an obstacle to those beliefs no matter how conservative and pragmatic they are. The Speaker is clearly not on the left wing of the Democrat Party.

Even if there is a budget passed and some of the turnaround agenda put into law the battle for making Illinois a Republican majority state will not end unless Governor Rauner’s strategy is defeated in the elections. Even if that did happen the traditional Illinois Republican party may have to revolt against the Governor. As a wise poet once might have written:

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the sixty seven Republicans of the Assembly
“Forward, the Republican Party!”
“Charge for the Democrat leaders!” he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the sixty seven Republicans of the Assembly
“Forward, Republican Party!”
Was there a Republican Senator or Representative dismay’d?
Not tho’ the media knew for sure
Someone had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the sixty seven Republicans of the Assembly

Comment by Rod Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:34 pm
Ethan Hawk, the cliche is to call it a BULLY pulpit. The phrase originated with Teddy Roosevelt, back when bully was a synonym for ‘awesome’ or ‘excellent.’ Your use of BLOODY pulpit may be prophetic, I fear. Whose blood will be on the pulpit is the question? Will it be the blood of children, families, communities if/when the government shuts down?

Comment by Pawn Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:34 pm
Bruce Rauner is turning out to be not a “go along to get along” type guy. He’s serious about reform. The Rauner campaign to raise the profile of Mike Madigan works on three levels.

1) Mike Madigan is now an antique having been at the signing of Illinois’ 1970 Constitution. He more than anyone is responsible for the Illinois public pension mess. By reminding voters that it’s strange/dysfunctional to have someone in power that long who’s failed Illinois taxpayers can’t help Madigan’s image.

2) When Rauner reminds voters that Mike Madigan wants a high property tax state because Madigan is in the property tax appeals business this reminds voters.

3)The Rauner attack on Madigan raises the question of term limits. Why do Democrats have an old white guy running things holding minorities from rising to the top?

None of this means that Rauner’s attack will work but they do establish Rauner as someone who wants a change from the status quo.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:36 pm
+++Arsenal - Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 1:51 pm:

==Many may be looking at these ads as the “after” a failed session, more than the “before” of the next GA races.==

I don’t think anyone’s making that mistake. The problem is, if it’s awfully tough to make ads two summers before an election sticky, and you run the risk of turning your message into white noise by Election Day.++++

Ars, advertisers make sticky ads all the time that last two years and beyond. You don’t see much of it in political advertising because of the prohibitive cost of media. It’s wishful thinking to believe no one will be swayed by the advertising, especially if they’re already predisposed to the message.

Not every race is won on election day (ask the Speaker). That is tabulation day. All but the very closest races are won well before then.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:37 pm
I suppose Governor Rauner will expect the loyal sixty seven to follow Kipling’s advice from “The Young British Soldier”

Comment by Bill White Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:42 pm
This was going to happen no matter what. The timing is just goofy.

I dont see it helping Rauner get anything this summer.

As far as November 2016 goes, it’s preposterous to think spots run now will resonate 17 months from now with persuadable voters in the handful of competitive contests.

Rauner will have to spend every dime he has to even hope to make Madigan the dominant issue in November 2016.

Sen. South Side Broseph is the No. 1 target in the country and I think there’s another race on tne ballot, too. There won’t be much oxygen left in the room after those two.

But, on the bright side, some political media types got an unexpected sweet payday, in summer, in a non-election year.

That never happens, for some reason.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:53 pm
“He’s serious about reform.”
If Rauner is serious about reform he wouldn’t have waited until the last week of session to introduce his bills.

Comment by Bluefish Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:54 pm
@anonymous:

Same question about “old white guy running things” could be asked about Bruce.

Comment by Jack Stephens Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 2:54 pm
==Ars, advertisers make sticky ads all the time that last two years and beyond.==

Political advertisers generally don’t, and the advertisers that do generally keep the ad, or the campaign, going for two straight years. Rauner might do that here, but that’s when you run into the Meg Whitman problem.

== It’s wishful thinking to believe no one will be swayed by the advertising==

It sure is, that’s why I didn’t say “no one” will be swayed. And the fact that you have to strawman me is pretty telling.

It’s simply far more likely that an ad running for a week two summers before an election will be forgotten by Election Day than it is that such an ad will continue to resonate for 18 months. Maybe Rauner’s got lightning in a bottle here. Definitely possible. But it’s wishful thinking to just expect that to be the case.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:01 pm
==You don’t see much of it in political advertising because of the prohibitive cost of media.==

No, you don’t see it much in political advertising because “Vote for this guy two Novembers from now!” is fundamentally a harder message to craft than “Go buy this product, available at your nearest store right now!”

I mean, I guess the heightened difficulty of the first message might be overcome with enough money, but yeesh, you act like Rauner is the first rich politician.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:03 pm
– advertisers make sticky ads all,the time that last two years and beyond.–

You can’t be serious.

This ain’t aspirational image advertising of a consumer product for a general market to have in mind they make a purchase at a time of tneir choosing.

This is directed toward a small target market of persuadable voters in a limited number of districts to take action indirectly AGAINST someone not on tneir ballot during a short time window about 17 months from now.

The “punishment” theory is the only thing that makes sense. There’s no reasonable snort-term or long-term marketing objective at this time.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:09 pm
—
The Rauner attack on Madigan raises the question of term limits. Why do Democrats have an old white guy running things holding minorities from rising to the top?
—

Um, okay. Rauner is the whitest of white — he’s a rich, billionaire white guy that wears sweater vests and Haagar slacks and if asked what his favorite song is, he’d say — much like every other white politician asked the same question — “Somewhere Over the Rainbow.”

So, yeah — if you want to wonder about that stuff, be careful. The trend is not encouraging — and, I’d argue, is getting a bit worse.

Comment by Macbeth Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:22 pm
—
This is directed toward a small target market of persuadable voters
—

Who are these persuadable voters? Didn’t they just vote … for the guy asking them (apparently) to keep in mind Evil Madigan when voting (eventually)?

Are they persuadable from the time they voted, oh, six months ago … until now? What happened? Did they shift again? Folks that voted for Madigan — or voted for Ds in general — are, like, wow — what a great job Rauner is doing. What was I thinking?

Comment by Macbeth Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:25 pm
=== and if asked what his favorite song is, he’d say — much like every other white politician asked the same question — “Somewhere Over the Rainbow.”
===

I found out over the weekend that he’s a Dead Head.

I kid you not.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:37 pm
===It’s simply far more likely that an ad running for a week two summers before an election will be forgotten by Election Day than it is that such an ad will continue to resonate for 18 months. Maybe Rauner’s got lightning in a bottle here. Definitely possible. But it’s wishful thinking to just expect that to be the case.===

Is it just too complex for you to consider an “ad series”, you know, an ad campaign? The industry has been doing them for a while now. And, it works a lot. That’s why they do them.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:49 pm
===Is it just too complex for you to consider an “ad series”, you know, an ad campaign? The industry has been doing them for a while now. And, it works a lot. That’s why they do them.===

That’s a relief, I was worried Governor Rauner might pause from campaigning long enough to actually govern.

Glad to know the Raunerite Dream of a Blago Dream will just keep going…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:53 pm
Guy, tell us more about these 17-month political ad campaigns with an indirect call to action.

Which are your top three most successful?

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:54 pm
Granted, the timing of Rauner’s ads doesn’t correspond to any election. But don’t worry, he will still have plenty of money to run ads and donate campaign funds to those he wants to win, come next election time. This just may be kind of the softening up bombardment before the main attack before the next election.

Comment by Joe M Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:00 pm
==This ain’t aspirational image advertising of a consumer product for a general market to have in mind they make a purchase at a time of tneir choosing.===

Sorry, I didn’t know that you’ve already seen the ads and know what the approach was that was taken. I’ll have to wait to see them as I catch up on reruns.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:06 pm
As much as we keep reading about two years, I read somewhere that some of these folks will be on a ballot as early as next Spring. And then there will be another tally in the Fall. Gotta find that article.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:09 pm
===Is it just too complex for you to consider an “ad series”, you know, an ad campaign? The industry has been doing them for a while now. And, it works a lot. That’s why they do them.===

Hmm. It’s an “Ad Series”, sounds like - A Guy -, is on this. Tell us, - A Guy -, what will it look like?

===…I’ll have to wait to see them…===

So, - A Guy -…

You KNOW its a series, but you are clueless to what is going on…

You know less than what little you are pretending to speculate, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:11 pm
=== Wordslinger - Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 3:54 pm:

Guy, tell us more about these 17-month political ad campaigns with an indirect call to action.

Which are your top three most successful?===

Let’s narrow it down to one; very successful and reasonably recent.

Obama pounding a year + in advance on Romney. There are some experts (not as smart as you though) who said that’s what truly won the race. They called it “risky” even.

You’re welcome.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:12 pm
Guy, you make no sense. We’ve been told that tney’re anti-Madigan ads.

So I guess that would rule out aspirational marketing of a consumer product for a general market to have in mind when they make a purchase at a time of tneir choosing.

Unless you think the governor is really selling Cadillacs or Nikes.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:19 pm
==Is it just too complex for you to consider an “ad series”, you know, an ad campaign?==

No, it’s not, but an “‘ad series’, you know, an ad campaign” hasn’t been announced. One week of ads has. If an “‘ad series’, you know, an ad campaign” is announced, I’ll change my analysis. But I can’t just assume that what you wish will happen WILL happen.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:20 pm
I must’ve missed where Governor Rauner then is running against Mike Madigan…

If it mirrors that Obama-Romney thingy.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:20 pm
Guy, I’m pretty sure Romney was on every ballot.

Indirect call to action, get it? Madigan will be on very few ballots.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:22 pm
==Obama pounding a year + in advance on Romney.==

Obama ran his first ad on the 2012 race in January, 2012, and it was a positive ad. The “gambling on going negative” that you’re talking about was in the summer of 2012. And yeah, even that was and remains early- after all, Governor Rauner “went dark” during the summer of 2014, too.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:24 pm
===Wordslinger - Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:22 pm:

Guy, I’m pretty sure Romney was on every ballot
Indirect call to action, get it? Madigan will be on very few ballots.===

Thus the campaign, bucky. Every time you see a House Dem name or a Sen Dem name on a ballot, the association with Madigan needs to be second nature. We’ll see how well it works. But in the meantime, thanks for sharing your seemingly unlimited world of knowledge on every subject.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:30 pm
Again, I’m not saying Rauner *absolutely cannot* draw the inside straight on this one, but understand that it will be *drawing the inside straight*. Even if this is an “‘ad series’, you know, an ad campaign” (and if it is, why is it only starting now? Why didn’t such a thing start in the spring of 2014?), then we get to the Meg Whitman problem, like I already said (oh, that’s why).

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:32 pm
Yikes….wait till the ad actually runs…very disappointin’ ….seen strong Tom Cross ads
Meanwhile:
) Mike Madigan is now an antique having been at the signing of Illinois’ 1970 Constitution. He more than anyone is responsible for the Illinois public pension mess. By reminding voters that it’s strange/dysfunctional to have someone in power that long who’s failed Illinois taxpayers can’t help Madigan’s image.

2) When Rauner reminds voters that Mike Madigan wants a high property tax state because Madigan is in the property tax appeals business this reminds voters.

3)The Rauner attack on Madigan raises the question of term limits. Why do Democrats have an old white guy running things holding minorities from rising to the top?

Madigan stopped my pension hikes that he passed, law firms correct assessment errors —taxes are not involved, terms limits and the fake remap group make it easier for the millionaires to plop more stooges into place sooner — hastening the arrival of West IN.
P.S. anyone else care the so-called secret PAC uses an out of state law firm who bungled the reporting of Zell’s (aka Blagoof wiretap chatter) $4 million drop — opps

Comment by Anonin' Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:37 pm
===Every time you see a House Dem name or a Sen Dem name on a ballot, the association with Madigan needs to be second nature. We’ll see how well it works. But in the meantime, thanks for sharing your seemingly unlimited world of knowledge on every subject.===

To recap;

Bruce Rauner spent over $60 million dollars, and put himself and his family and his reputation, and has put an addition $34 million actual, $60 million pledged… according to - A Guy -…

To finance “Fire Madigan”…

… again.

That is the saddest if sad. Over $120 million to sell “Fire Madigan” t-shirts and coffee mugs.

LOL

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:50 pm
@ OW- Yeah, it’s a pretty pathetically small vision of what to do with the Governor’s office, but whatever, if his supporters are fine with it…

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 4:56 pm
===To finance “Fire Madigan”…===

Please show me a post where I used this phrase. I’ll be right here. Remember, there’s a hockey game at 7. But you keep looking.

Madigan is much safer in his district than many others. It’s about firing them and demoting him.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 5:04 pm
==Thus the campaign==

This is a high risk, high reward approach, and well-suited to Illinois. Few states have challenges on the scale of Illinois, and even fewer have a politician of Madigan’s power and tenure.

If this successfully becomes a referendum on ==business as usual==, Madigan and anyone aligned with him loses.

Comment by Formerly Known As... Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 5:09 pm
===It’s about firing them and demoting him.===

“Demote Madigan!”

LOL, even better.

You’d think for $120 million, - A Guy -, “Demote Madigan” better have better t-shirts and mugs…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 5:11 pm
A guy, please stop smoking or drinking whatever is hindering your judgment. Your comments today have totally out there in La La Land.

Supposedly, the focus of this ad buy is to generate support for the immediate passage of enough of Rauner’s agenda he can claim victory and support a budget resolution. You and the other Raunerbots keep talking about the long game. If you want ads for the long game, then tell me how we move the FY 16 budget ball forward during the short game. The long game doesn’t help Rauner until 2017 (you throw out the primary as if a loss will result in the legislator immediately bowing down to the Rauner agenda). That’s two budgets away for those who are interested in governing.

Your long game is not helping the short game. Your failure to effectively play the short game will hurt your long game.

In the meantime, I lot of needy people will be hurt by the Gov’s poor tactics.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 5:26 pm
Its terrible what the potential state cuts will be, but really… people that are working and lets say live in a decent suburban location, will make a connect that they are tired of the Madigan Business as usual. And sadly..people don’t care as much as they used to about the needy and downtrodden. Something has to give. I think Madigan wins the battle, but Rauner will win the war. There is no doubt the Dems are going to lose House Seats in 2016. How many is the question. If they lose just one that’s more than they did in 2014. Further..Madigan doesn’t have the field talent he once had..lots of newcomers. Bottom line… Rauner’s millions in cash will have a huge impact.

Comment by anon Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 5:59 pm
===There is no doubt the Dems are going to lose House Seats in 2016.===

Good luck with that.

How many seats did MJM lose in 2014?

Give that a think…

===Madigan doesn’t have the field talent he once had..lots of newcomers. Bottom line…===

Madigan has a “farm team”, that “raises” these “newcomers”. It’s like wishful thinking rules the day.

===Rauner’s millions in cash will have a huge impact.===

Oh, it will. It will also motivate Dems in a way that the polarizing Rauner might not suspect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 6:05 pm
Successful business people know when to cut their loses; Rauner will eventually.

Comment by Buzzie Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 6:16 pm
TV 20, Springfield had promoted that they would preview a Rauner ad at 6. The 6:00 p.m. report stated that Rauner staff asked them not to play the add. 20 reporter than went to a clip of Edgar telling the players to stop name calling. Interesting turn of events. Could Edgar be the adult we were looking for or is Rauner staff playing cute to let us see the all mighty ad as it debuts?

Comment by Norseman Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 6:21 pm
And thank you Guy, for your insightful revelation of the eery similarities between the Obama and Rauner efforts.

Of course, unlike Romney, Madigan is only on the ballot in one of 118 House districts.

And Obama went negative the summer before the election, while Rauner is doing so two summers before the election.

Other than that, as always, spot on.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 6:34 pm
- Rod -,

It might indeed be that poem you borrowed from.

The question is, I guess(?) is how willing from Jump Street were those 67, before the $20 million made the point of no return realized.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 7:15 pm
Rayner needs to go, just a waist of tax money.why don’t he move to another state.

Comment by Macado Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 7:30 pm
Omar Little from The Wire “If your gonna come at the King, best make sure you kill him”.

Comment by LBJ Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 9:21 pm
This man essentially bought the Governor’s office (and lied to voters by doing so), then he buys the the IL GOP making them Raunerites. And so now he is going to spend a million to blame and denigrate MGM for the budget impasse. He is not a Governor as he has consistently displayed, and his superstar high paid team is doing him no justice. This is dangerous territory when one individual with unlimited funds tries to upsurpt the process. I hope democracy and common sense prevails!

Comment by XDNR Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 10:04 pm
Rauner and his Raunerbots are about to get schooled that power wears out those who don’t have it.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 11:16 pm
My governor’s concern for the speaker makes him even more ill relevant in negotiating. This makes him look weak that the public will like mike more.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 15, 15 @ 11:20 pm
two points on Rauner’s pending failure:
1. If Rauner initiates the massive cuts in state services that he has proposed, he will get the blame from the public. That includes lost funding for suburban hospitals etc. in addition to cuts in programs for the Democratic base.
2. To sum up, Rauner think’s he’s Scott Walker. In fact he’s Dan Walker with the same outcome in 2018. But the damage this governor will do to most folks will be awful.

Comment by anon Tuesday, Jun 16, 15 @ 6:32 am