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Others chime in on Rauner TV ads

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Illinois

* UIS’ Chris Mooney as quoted in the Tribune…

Mooney, the political scientist, said he found the style of Rauner’s ad “baffling” at this point.

“It’s a classic (election) campaign ad but there’s no (election) campaign going on. What does he want people to do? Does he think this just puts pressure on Mike Madigan and the politicians?” Mooney asked.

The ad puts Madigan “in black and white, and the speaker can’t find that to be very nice,” he said. “Given his past history, he doesn’t respond well to direct criticism of that nature.”

At the same time, Mooney suggested the ad may be part of a sustained effort to try to portray Madigan as the cause behind any state government shutdown.

* David Yepsen at the Simon Institute…

“A lawmaker rises and falls based on his local connections. People may say they hate Mike Madigan but that they like Frank [Mautino],” Yepsen said. “Smart, influential local people realize that Mike Madigan is not the most popular guy but it’s good that our local guy is good with him. Most legislators have a state facility, park or agency in their districts that they have to take care of.”

Yepsen said he hasn’t heard Democratic lawmakers badmouth Madigan either publicly or privately.

“He is a powerful lawmaker,” Yepsen said. “If legislators have half a brain, they aren’t going to publicly alienate someone who may do something for their districts.”

* Mark Brown…

I would never try to tell you Madigan is one of the good guys. As I’ve said previously, I wish he’d hang it up.

But for right now, I’m really glad he’s down there in Springfield to stand up to the bully king, even if he’s doing it for the wrong reasons.

Madigan, a bully in his own right, does not currently see it as being in his best political interest to sell out the little people who rely on Democrats to protect their viewpoint in Springfield. That could change, for which I’m equally grateful for the Democratic majority in the Senate. […]

In Rauner’s commercial, the narrator says: “Mike Madigan and the politicians he controls refuse to change.”

I would translate that to mean Rauner doesn’t control enough politicians yet, but just like Madigan, he’s working on it.

* But if I had to agree with any of them, it would be this part of Eric Zorn’s piece…

Winning an office by using the power of advertising is one thing. We’re used to it by now.

Governing by using the power of advertising is another. And we’ve never seen anything quite like it. […]

It makes sense. Public pressure can play a big part in legislative negotiations. When government services start shutting down, as they are likely to begin doing next month, voters grow increasingly agitated, and rank-and-file lawmakers seek to protect their political futures.

Rauner is trying to win the inevitable blame game the same way he won the governorship: with a well-financed campaign of chesty if vague commercials that paint Democratic leaders as obstacles to progress and economic health. […]

But I concede it just might work, particularly in the context of a sustained, well-funded effort to win hearts and minds. Rauner’s PR campaign may not ever lead to flipping the 13 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate needed for Republican majorities in the General Assembly, but it just might give him a significant upper hand as the summer of our discontent grinds on.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 10:59 am

Comments

Snowball fight in Hades today. I actually agree with Zorn.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:03 am
That’s an interesting quote from Yepsen. If you have a state park or an agency field office in your district, you better be “good” with Mike Madigan. It’s almost like he’s saying that Madigan wields his clout and influence over public affairs for political gains. That kind of sounds like what Bruce Rauner is saying.

Nobody wants to have a “@$&* problem” with Mike Madigan, aye?

Comment by White Denim Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:08 am
I kind of agree with Zorn. The problem, as I see it, is the newspaper headlines all say Rauner this and Rauner that, so he’s the face on the cuts, the budget “crisis”, etc. With short attention spans, few will read all the articles to find out the real details. So we come to this:

Will the news stories cancel out the ads?

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:09 am
===Will the news stories cancel out the ads? ===

Count the number of people who read newspapers.

Count the number of people who watch TV.

Therein lies your answer.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:10 am
Zorn is solid here.

I look at this as a great grab;

===I would never try to tell you Madigan is one of the good guys. As I’ve said previously, I wish he’d hang it up.

But for right now, I’m really glad he’s down there in Springfield to stand up to the bully king, even if he’s doing it for the wrong reasons.===

“Why?”

I respect the Speaker.

But, I also know Mike Madigan’s legacy isn’t going to be written about all he accomplished. Madigan’s legacy is all that, as Speaker, he prevented.

Speaker Madigan is one of two barriers preventing the state government to implode in itself, and Speaker Madigan is also trying to, honestly, teach Rauner the levers of government thru the procedures of the House chamber.

Will Rauner meet Madigan half way?

Or, will Rauner force Raunerite Caucuses be created and run?

These are great, Rich, love the outside media perspective.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:13 am
While Illinois is burning, these two are in a stare down contest to see who will blink first. This is not going to be pretty.

Comment by The Colossus of Roads Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:13 am
I don’t get the end game. Whatever pressure he puts on legislators won’t have anynreal consequences until the next election cycle. He might scare a few skittish members un swing districts, but that cuts both ways. He’s still going to have to bring a compromise package to the table, something he could do at any time in the process. He’s never presented a legislative package yet he’s railing against an impasse of his making.

Comment by relocated Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:14 am
===I don’t get the end game===

Then re-read Zorn’s excerpt.

It basically restates something I told subscribers about weeks ago.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:17 am
Agree with Zorn’s thinking that if Rauner has a clear strategy for these ads, this is likely it.

Still not sure that strategy will work.

What makes sense is to assume everything Rauner does politically is about the Turnaround Agenda, and not specifically about governing, the budget, or seats in the legislature.

His anti-Madigan, (or anti-Bradley et al) efforts are more about influence over potential future votes, than about actually winning their seats.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:21 am
“But for right now, I’m really glad he’s down there in Springfield to stand up to the bully king,”
My whole attitude towards Mike Madigan changed the last time that we had a bully governor-Blagojevic; don’t agree with everything he does, but do trust him to not to screw over the average guy like Rauner seems intent to do…

Comment by downstate commissioner Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:21 am
Baffling is the most appropriate characterization I’ve read. Whats puzzling me is the nature of Rauner’s game.

Comment by AC Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:22 am
“but it just “might” give him a significant upper hand as the summer of our discontent grinds on.”

“Might”….And if it doesn’t, what then?

Comment by Are Ya Kiddin' Me? Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:24 am
===Whats puzzling me is the nature of Rauner’s game. ===

Then re-read the Zorn excerpt.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:24 am
– but it just might give him a significant upper hand as the summer of our discontent grinds on.–

Personally, I’m not having a summer of discontent. I’m not sure what could happen in Springfield that could ruin my summer. Silly hyperbole.

But I’m curious as to how Zorn believes the “upper hand” will manifest itself. Public pressure leading to flipped votes? On what, the budget? They both need billions in new revenue.

The other stuff, Rauner never laid the groundwork for it during the campaign or since taking office. He didn’t do it in his new spot. Did I miss the public clamor for whatever the turnaround agenda is today?

I remain highly skeptical that a large number of people are tuned into summer Springfield shenanigans or are motivated by summer TV spots that don’t ask anything of them. Summer is precious in this part of the world and generally booked solid with joyful activities.

Schools opening on time are the Big Kahuna and that’s about money and nothing else.

I’ve always believed Rauner needs something he can call a “victory” before he signs his tax increase that he needs for his budget.You dont want to just steamroll the governor because he doesnt have the votes. You’ve got to work with the guy in the future, unless he’s a Blago and that proves impossible.

On the other hand, the governor must know by that he doesn’t have the votes, and has not generated public support for his reactionary agenda.

He just needs to figure out what his “victory” is, declare it and get on to being the state’s chief executive, not just a partisan super-legislator.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:28 am
Willy, your quote after complimenting Zorn is actually the quote from Mark Brown.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:30 am
Slinger, very seriously, why do you believe ‘no one is paying attention?’

I’m sure anyone could make he case that “The Bachelor” is more compelling to a lot of people, but I think serious people are paying attention.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:34 am
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:10 am:
What you say is true.
I do not understand why do people not read the newspapers anymore. Scary times ahead for all of us.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:34 am
People who casually follow politics and have an IQ higher than 60 realize the culprit in the state of IL mess is MM.

Comment by anon Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:38 am
An opposing view is Rauner might be advertising his own failure to “Turnaround Illinois” and they might be wondering why his governin doesn’t match his campaigning… this may be a classic advertising blunder.

Comment by Liberty Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:42 am
++Rauner is trying to win the inevitable blame game the same way he won the governorship: with a well-financed campaign of chesty if vague commercials that paint Democratic leaders as obstacles to progress and economic health. […]++

It appears the Governor does not care if people lose their jobs. What progress and what economic health is a concern for the Governor?

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:43 am
Well speaking as a social scientist, Rich, if you want to commission a couple of before and after polls about what this does statewide to Mike Madigan’s image (or the Democrats’ image) - and the 64 million question, how much and for how long any of that endures, once the ad barrage ultimately stops - we’ll sure have an interesting case example in the modern power of the .01 percenters.

The issue is not whether an ad barrage can move public opinion. I’m sure it can. The question is how long it lasts. It’s a long, long time before November of 2016. There’s a very powerful communications-theory argument that negative ads bought in the summer of 2015 are pissing into the wind. Is Rauner going to keep this up for the next 18 months? But this hasn’t really been tried on this scale (nor measured), that I’m aware of.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:44 am
===Willy, your quote after complimenting Zorn is actually the quote from Mark Brown.===

If you’re saying I’m Mark Brown, I’m not.

If you’re saying I plagerized, it was not done deliberately.

If you’re saying that poor Mark Brown is saddled with me, to him, I apologize…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:45 am
I’m saying the way your post looks that your attributing Mark Brown’s words to Zorn. That’s all. Your swatting a fly with a sledgehammer here dude.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:49 am
BTW, Brownie will forgive you.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:50 am
===but it just might give him a significant upper hand as the summer of our discontent grinds on.===

An upper hand right until the moment he signs the $3.5 billion income tax hike?

Whether it happens in two weeks or two months, the end game is a budget that will look very much like the one passed by the House and Senate. All that is missing is the bi-partisan bill to increase the income tax from 3.75% to 4.75%. That’s the punch line, that’s where this ends.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 11:59 am
===commission a couple of before and after polls about what this does statewide to Mike Madigan’s image===

lol

This is about the governor’s image.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 12:01 pm
Guy, you’re the one not paying attention.

Read what I wrote. I never said “no one” is paying attention. I have my doubts about large numbers paying attention in the summer when there’s a lot of other stuff going on, which I also wrote. It’s right up there.

And if you’re going to use quotation marks, follow the rules and don’t just make them up. It’s dishonest.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 12:08 pm
“===Whats puzzling me is the nature of Rauner’s game. ===” Sympathy for Rauner?

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 12:41 pm
==Whats puzzling me is the nature of Rauner’s game.==

Rauner and his friends want to control government through wealth. That means shutting down the unions and becoming the controlling source of campaign and advertising revenue. Zorn is spot on!

Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 1:02 pm
This is all about a long-term strategy to sell Rauner and the GOP as reformers. When the budget is finally passed and income taxes rise by one percent, Rauner will say that he did everything in his power to keep them from rising even more. He will continue the push for his non-budget reforms.

Then the GOP will use that messaging next year in an attempt to win some seats in the legislature. 2016 will be a big year– because if Rauner is unable to move the balance of power in the House and/or Senate, he will have to run for reelection after four years of total gridlock and limited successes.

Comment by Snucka Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 1:28 pm
What is a “chesty” commercial?

Comment by Filmmaker Professor Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 2:02 pm
This whole strategy has me wondering about something I’ve been thinking about for some time: are TV ads everything in politics today? If not everything, then how much? 95%? 90%?

Comment by Filmmaker Professor Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 2:05 pm
I still don’t see how this ad moves the needle at all on who people are going to blame in a shutdown or spurs any kind of action/reaction from people, other than political insiders or people already engaged. It’s the same old tired Madigan smear campaign, which hasn’t worked before.

And has anyone asked if there is a shutdown, what percentage of the voters will even notice? Enough to ratchet up pressure on individual legislators? Time will tell.

Comment by K3 Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 2:06 pm
My governor’s style of fear and intimidation will wear thin with the public trust he wrote a check his mouth can’t cash a balanced budget

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 2:19 pm
== What progress and what economic health is a concern for the Governor? ==

The end game is to destroy labor unions, pay lower wages and fewer benefits to middle-class workers, make it possible for billionaires to control our government, and further increase corporate profits and tax breaks for the very wealthy.

This is the endgame of the turnaround agenda.

Comment by Enviro Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 2:54 pm
– This is about the governor’s image.–

Now that makes some sense, as sad as it is.

Personal Rauner image ad. Not short-game pushing legislation or flipping votes this summer. Not long-game flipping seats next year.

Just a warm and fuzzy for the governor so people will like him.

Five months into the gig, no heavy lifting yet, and he’s sweating his image so much that he needs a million-dollar touch-up. Geez, it’s the governor’s office, not a Cher concert.

But some media types are in for a big score the next 3.5 years.

Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 4:01 pm
It is striking on how many are apparently mystified by the coming ad campaign. It is just political hyperwar in a telecommunications age. Rauner is rewriting the playbook since he has enough money to do so.

Comment by Percival Wednesday, Jun 17, 15 @ 10:01 pm