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Glengariff Group: 39-30-9 and 20 undecided

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Illinois
Polls

Subscribers had these results yesterday and will get the full results this morning. AP:

A new poll since a close adviser to Gov. Rod Blagojevich was indicted shows the incumbent Democrat with a 9 percentage point lead over his closest challenger, Republican Judy Baar Topinka, according to results released Monday.

The poll also shows 51 percent of voters surveyed believe Blagojevich knew about the alleged corruption involving one of his top fundraisers. Federal prosecutors have accused businessman Antoin “Tony” Rezko of trying to collect kickbacks from companies wanting state business.

Blagojevich has said the indictment does not suggest he had knowledge of any alleged wrongdoing. If the charges against Rezko turn out to be true, Blagojevich says he was duped by a friend.

The new poll numbers that show Blagojevich leading Topinka 39 percent to 30 percent don’t indicate a dramatic shift since the Chicago-based Glengariff Group last surveyed the race in June, when Blagojevich led Topinka 41 percent to 34 percent. Green Party candidate Rich Whitney wasn’t included in that survey but the latest results show him polling 9 percent support.

One in five Illinois voters still is undecided in the governor’s race, the poll found.

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:15 am

Comments

I think Whitney is going to decide this election for Topinka. He’ll draw from both; but more now from the Gov then disgruntled Republicans.

People who have no clue he’s a Green tell me they’ll vote for him. They’ll be a huge protest vote with him.

Comment by Bill Baar Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:22 am
I think the poll was to early. Wait till next week after rezko returns or dont return. People need time to think and hear about it.

Comment by Just Because Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:25 am
How accurate was this poll 2 years ago and 4 years ago?

Comment by North of I-80 Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:31 am
Couldn’t Whitney wreck it for Judy? Many Leftologists and disgruntled Dems likely would have voted for the moderate JBT over Blago, but with Whitney as the third option, they’ll go for him instead.

Comment by Oil Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:32 am
Ignorant:
1.) Lacking education or knowledge.
2.) Showing or arising from a lack of education or knowledge.
3.) Unaware or uninformed.

This poll proves beyond a reasonable doubt that Illinois voters are IGNORANT. They don’t care about facts, nor do they bother to find them.

IL voters spend more time making decisions on meals from a “drive thru” than they do in electing politicians. After its over they are surprised with future revelations like these facts and allegations weren’t available to them previously.

No, in Illinois politicians play on our ignorance as voters. This poll shows one thing: Who claims the title of King of the Ignorant…

Comment by Animous Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:44 am
Welcome to Illinois. Political fund-raising scandals just don’t resonate here.

I agree with Just Because that it may be too early for people to have absorbed the Rezko affair but I have also ntoiced that it has pretty much dropped out of the headlines, which is all many people read. If he doesn’t come back, which seems likely, that’s about another day of headlines and then, poof, Rezko is gone from the collective consciousness until Blago’s second term, when it won’t matter because Blago is toast politically after Term II.

JBT shouldn’t give up yet but if the expected happens, the day after the election, the Republicans should start rebuilding their party, town by town, suburb by suburb. With another four years of in your face Democratic government corruption upcoming, plus more indictments, the future belongs to Republicans in Illinois, if they can shed the Kjellanders and Big Jims and wacky far-righters and rebuild the party.

Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:44 am
Dear Jim Durkin,

I see that you were able to get all the way up to 38% against Dick Durbin. I’m stuck all the way down here at 30%, sitting next to Alan Keyes. And that’s up from 29% a couple of days ago. I desperately want to get away from creepy Alan. What’s your secret?

Judy

Comment by Snark Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:46 am
This poll shows, once again, that the voters are much more interested in continuing the progressive agenda of Governor Blagojevich than they are in some charges that a couple of the Governor’s political associates might have tried to feather their own nests.
Health care for seniors, children, veterans…increased funding for education… raising the minimum wage…cutting the cost of state gov’t…all without raising sales or income taxes…getting assault weapons off the streets…protecting a woman’s right to choose… The choice is clear.These are the issues that effect people’s quality of life. These are the issues that will convince people to vote for four more years of progressive government with Rod Blagojevich. When it comes time to actually vote the undecided and much of the whitney vote will go to the governor.
We must all continue to work hard to make sure that our voters come out. We must not get over- confident despite these favorable poll numbers.We need to chalk up big numbers for the Governor to show the state legislature and the federal government that the governor has a clear mandate from the people to make state gov’t work for them not the other way around.
We the people shall prevail.
Bring it on!
Keep working those phones and walking those precincts everybody!We are almost home.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:50 am
The Governor should stop claiming that he was duped, because that is an insult to our intellegence. Unfortunately, to expect the Governor to start doing the right thing at this late date is to believe in fantasies (like the Cubs in next year’s World Series).

Comment by fedup dem Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:55 am
Animous,
There you go again. If a majority of voters don’t agree with you then they must be ignorant…and you people call the governor arrogant!
Cassie,
If the KJs,Cellinis, Big Jims, wacky right wingers, Alan Keyeses,et al are gotten rid of there would be no Republicans left.
By the way, did judy give back all of Levine’s campaign contributions yet? How about contributions from Cellini’s bank?
I didn’t think so. What’s she thinking?

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:59 am
Disappointing, but as a realist, I have to accept the world as it is, not how I would like it to be. The fact that 20% are undecided suggests that Judy might still have chance. However, as I recall, Glengariff polls always have more undecideds than others–so it may be a methodological quirk. All in all, I’d say that there is still a little bit of hope for Judy, but if she doesn’t make her move in the next week, it’s over.

Comment by Realist Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:07 am
Realist, these don’t look quirky to me, in fact they seem to confirm the Trib numbers from this weekend. 20% undecided is the result of two of the candidates beating the brains out of each other and voters either tired of it, refusing to commit, or refusing to vote for either of them. Blagojevich is getting his wish, a lot of people just won’t vote because they’re so sick of this. He knew early on it was the only way he could win — tar and feather his opposition.

Comment by Curious George Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:22 am
Topinka is in T-R-O-U-B-L-E

Even with all this the best she can do it 30%?

No money. No field organization. Nothing,

I was walking for our governor this weekend (all houses but hard Republicans) and didnt hear one bad thing said. Nothing about Rezko. Did hear alot of positive about All Kids.

I also heard alot of… Rod aint perfect, but he is ten times better than THAT woman!

Comment by Sid Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:32 am
Yes, Bill….”We the People shall prevail (and while you’re at it, go to jail)”

Sounds like a logical plan to me!!! NOT!!!

Comment by Country Girl Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:33 am
Bill,
I’m guessing you probably said the voters were ignorant when G Ryan was elected governor. The difference this time is that there are actual INDICTMENTS tied directly to the campaign and some of the governor’s hand picked friends before the election.

Blago has been campaigning AGAINST corruption and playing the G Ryan card for 5 YEARS!!! His claim for the last five years is that he was personally going to clean up government because THAT’S WHAT WAS IMPORTANT TO THE PEOPLE WHO ELECTED HIM. We now see that the wishes of the people came a distant second to getting reelected.

Arrogance” is standing in front of a camera straight faced saying you asked your chief fundraiser if he did anything dirty, not bothering to look into it, burying your head in the sand, and pretending to be the corruption fighter.

If I’m not mistaken, the Blago campaign has raised more money in the last 6 years than any gubernatorial campaign in history. He’s raised in primarily from major contributors and those wanting to do business with the state. He has NOT raised it from “The People” who elected him. You’re telling me he didn’t ONCE stop to ask if everything was above board???

No matter how you choose to spin it, voting for a politician continuing corruption (and taking it to new levels) when he has spent the last 5 years saying he’s cleaned it up is Ignorance and that is a fact.

This administration currently has more than 5 TIMES the number of federal investigations ongoing than G Ryan ever did. We know history, we know how this administration works compared to the last one, most of the posters on this site have seen it firsthand.

As I’ve said many times before: We’ve seen this story before. We know how it ends (deep down Bill, so do you). Post away, you can’t change History, it will be written…

Comment by Animous Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:36 am
He’s found CAPS LOCK, but at least he hasn’t figured out how to use HTML bold tags yet.

Comment by Snark Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:40 am
I sure hate to bust Bill’s bubble but last week Blago was at 14% less than 7 days later he’s at 9% thats called a free fall and the is not anything they can do to stop it.

Comment by DOWNSTATE Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:42 am
Snark,
Sorry, I guess I got up on the wrong side of the bed. I haven’t figured out the html bold tag yet, but when I do LOOK OUT!!!
;-)

Comment by Animous Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:51 am
Honestly, how many of the people surveyed had the slightest clue who Rezko was, or anything about the issue?

And were people asked to pick between Blago and JBT before or after that issue was “pushed” on them?

Blago’s still way ahead in any case. More wishful thinking from the JBT camp crushed on the rocks.

Topinka now needs to come clean on her ties to Cellini.

Comment by Real Clear Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 9:58 am
We’re doomed.

Comment by Snark Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 10:07 am
I honestly don’t think you can chalk the polls up to ignorance, otherwise our democracy’s doomed. While not everyone is a political junkie, most are capable of deciding which candidate has their interests at heart. Bill’s right, to claim ignorance is at the heart of Blago’s support is arrogant.

So if you take ignorance off the table, why are people making their choices? What has Blago done that they like? What are they hoping Blago will do? What do they fear Judy will do? What has Judy done that they don’t like?

Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 10:54 am
What’s the ratio of the major party candidates to Rich Whitney? 4:1. 3:1.

What’s the ratio of coverage from the media outlets?

If Whitney has support of 1/4 the number of people as Blagojevich and 1/3 the number of people as Topinka, doesn’t it seem like he should get at least 1/4 the coverage of RB & JBT?

And if Whitney did get 1/4 the air time that RB & JBT get, what would his support level be?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:36 am
I’m a l-i-b-e-r-a-l voter Bill and believe in many of the things you say the Governor supports. However, like many other progressives turned off by the current administration’s political cronyism and insider deals, I will be voting for Rich Whitney this time around. As the old Italian proverb goes:

“If a man deceives me once, shame on him; if he deceives me twice, shame on me.”

Comment by Liberal voter Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 11:45 am
Look to my earlier post (and the definition of ignorance-especially #3). I’m NOT claiming voters are STUPID, just UNINFORMED on the facts about candidates and about the overall political system in general.

Unlike most of the posters on this site (whose livelyhoods depend to some degree on politics) , the average person has too much going on in their lives to spend all day thinking about the intricacies of statewide (or national, or local) politics. They remain “unaware or uninformed”.

A perfect example is the “George Ryan’s Treasurer” ads. Does the average voter know that the office of treasurer has nothing to do with creating budgets (and the related deficit)? Do they understand that the budget problems we have today (and of more importance, in the next three years) are not all directly related to G Ryan and could have been reduced if we didn’t increase social spending plans? Does the average voter understand the cost of new programs when we can’t pay for the old ones? Do they recognize that JBT is Blago’s Treasurer too? Do they understand the role of the legislature and other constitutional offices?

No, I think the average voter hasn’t/can’t take the time to put together a “big picture” view of every candidate, nor have they truly investigated the current “state of the state”.

With information overload–at this point do you think the average voter listens to anything political on TV or radio–most just “block out” the whole nasty process and find something to hang their hat on before they vote. My point is that “something” isn’t always firmly rooted in the truth or with all the available information.

Politicians today capitalize on it and with the unending barrage of negative ads, inaccuracies, and half-truths, the average voter will never be allowed to know or understand the whole truth.

We get what “the system” creates: politicians whose only strength is that they can raise a lot of money and through paid media create images of themselves and their opponents that aren’t fully accurate. Its not exclusive to either party, or to any level of government.

I understand “that’s just the way it is”, but it is most certainly, by definition, playing on ignorance…

Comment by Animous Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:12 pm
People will for the candidate that they feel will best represent their interests and the interests of their state. That is why they will vote for Governor Blagojevich which I think is quite smart, given the alternatives, not ignorant. The Gov has not and will not be indicted. When he successfully completes his second term who will feel ignorant then? Will everyone hear admit that they were wrong and apologize?

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 12:58 pm
Almost makes me wonder, if Whitney ran just a few well placed TV ads the week before the election and establishes himself as the “none of the above” alternative to Rod/Judy, could he pick off 7% from Rod (very doable considering how soft his support really is), 6% from Judy (just as doable) and have 3/4 of the undecideds (i.e. those who just cannot vote for either Rod or Judy) break his way? If Whitney can, then he ends up at 37% and pulls it out.

Impossible or deja vu of Jesse Ventura? I’ll be honest, no one I know wants to vote for either Rod or Judy. When I mention Whitney to these folks, almost everyone says they’ll vote for him.

Comment by Bluefish Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 2:07 pm
Just as the Bears pulled a fourth quarter win out of nowhere on Monday night, we just may see Whitney (Mr. “none of the above, thanks”) pull a surprise victory. I for one plan to vote for the alternative since RB and JBT fail the voters on endless levels. Check out the article in today’s Chicago Tribune by John Williams (of WGN Radio 720) where Zippy the Squirrel got 70% of the vote in his straw poll. That speaks volumes just as the poll that shows 51% of voters are disgusted with the other two. Novembeer 7th will be an interesting day….Vote for Whitney to show that enough is enough!

Comment by DuPage Republican For Whitney! Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 3:46 pm
Vote for Whitney to show that the status quo is not worth doing anything about.

Comment by T.J. Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:29 pm
Who’s going to jump on the Whitney bandwagon next? Jesse Jackson?

Comment by JakeCP Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 4:46 pm
Those of you who vote for Whitney give up a whole lot of your right to complain about the way Illinois is governed in the next 4 years, since you will have passed up your chance to make a difference. Sure, there’s some inner good feeling about casting a protest vote, but the reality is that either Blagojevich or Topinka is going to be elected Governor next month.

If 5 or 6% of the vote goes to Whitney, that could well be enough to push either of the major party candidates over the top. The starry-eyed usually get pissed on in this world, and you’re forewarned.

Someone give me one good practical reason to vote for Whitney.

Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 5:22 pm
As a Topinka supporter I really need to know what meds or what smoking paraphernalia Bill is using. Reminds me of the smiling parachutist who’s still smiling ten feet from the ground after his parachute failed to open. Or the cartoon character who joyously keeps running off and away from the cliff . . . until he looks down and sees reality and then yeeeeaaahhhhhhh WHUMP. Sorry Bill, but I think it’s time to check into rehab !!!!!

Comment by Citizen A Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 5:43 pm
Overall, downstate will break for JBT, Chicago will break for Blago. The election will hinge on suburban Cook and the collars, whose demographics would seem to slightly favor the incumbent. A low, low turnout could make this election anyone’s guess. My suspicion is that Whitney will pull equally from disaffected Dems, independent protest voters (with a handful of GOP’s thrown in) and pull some others “not inclined to vote”. Some hard line conservatives will sit it out rather than vote for any of these three; considering their small numbers in IL, not a big deal. Overall a draw in how it affects JBT/Blago, maybe a slight tilt in taking votes away from Blago.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:27 pm
If Blago manages to win this election it will illustrate what a horrible candidate JBT was. Just finished watching the governor candidates from Iowa debate. They jousted back and forth quite briskly but at least they talked about the issues. The two major party candidates from Illinois are a joke !

Comment by bluedog demo Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 8:27 pm
steve schnorf, you’ve got it backwards probably.

It’s the people who want change and vote for Blagojevich and Topinka who are throwing their votes away.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Oct 17, 06 @ 10:25 pm