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The march to war

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Illinois

* From a Clinton Herald editorial…

Conventional wisdom told us that our leaders would end their dog-and-pony shows when push came to shove, get together in the governor’s conference room at the Capitol and hammer out a compromise budget in which neither side gets all it wants but both sides can live with it.

But these are unconventional times. Rauner has been hurling insults at Madigan, who is doing a slow burn. What’s developing before our eyes is a nonviolent version of World War I trench warfare: Both sides dig in and prepare for a long, withering conflict.

* Former Gov. Jim Edgar…

“My staff will tell you that there were many times when I was governor, and particularly that first few months, I had a lot of thoughts about Mike Madigan, but I never said them publicly,” says Edgar, a Republican who served two terms in the 1990s. “I worked that out, and we got to be very good friends, actually.”

Edgar says the money Rauner is spending on campaign-style ads attacking Democrats is unnecessary and won’t lead to compromise.

“That could make it extremely difficult,” he says. “I hope that some private talks will resume.”

Edgar says it also doesn’t help when Democrats are comparing Rauner to disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich. He says when he was governor, in the final weeks of sessions, everyone kept their opinions to themselves and got to work, and thinks that should happen here.

Edgar also says Rauner has to realize he’s not in the private sector anymore. Democrats, in turn, must realize they can’t do things the way they’ve always done them, calling it “a new day” in Springfield, Edgar says.

* Sen. Bill Brady…

Brady doesn’t see a quick resolution to the budget impasse.

“There are certain members of the General Assembly that are going to have to be worn down,” Brady said.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:13 am

Comments

Sadly, here is what’s real;

If Jim Edgar had the influence to “help” Rauner in a positive governing way, he would.

I read Edgar’s quotes and wonder, “Why are you telling all this to the press? If you are talking to both sides, as you claimed on ‘Chicago Tonight’, and after dealing with Madigan, you can’t help get a solution?”

I’ve been putting a think on that a lot…

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:19 am
In labor relations, you bargain to impasse. Here, they’ve reached an impasse but done no bargaining. Maybe it’s time to call in a respected third party like Edgar to mediate.

Comment by Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:24 am
My only problem here is, looking to Jim Edgar as the model of distinguished statesmanship and compromise.

Through his more amenable dealings, Edgar worked with Democrats and Republicans to pass the pension ramp in 1994 that basically punted all the tough choices to future governors, legislators and IL residents.

So I’m all for negotiations, but maybe Edgar should have been less willing to cut deals? But I know politics is the art of the possible, and Edgar made some tough calls too. His pledge to make a temporary income tax increase permanent in 1990 is almost the definition of Republican political heroism these days.

Comment by ZC Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:28 am
RUNG

Will the State be closed on July 1st?

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:29 am
@ OW -

Edgar may well be talking to both sides. But even if he is, that doesn’t mean they’re listening.

Comment by JoanP Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:30 am
“Mediate” means weakness to these two. “Two go in, one comes out”

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:31 am
I used to like Bill Brady, but saying things like that aren’t very productive.

Comment by A Jack Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:31 am
Governor Rauner might have been able to buy the Office, and buy anything he wants - but what he seems to be unable to fathom is that he needs to earn the respect and right to be governor, not just buy it.

When was the last time our new governor earned something?

Every newly elected official eventually learns that getting elected gets you into power, but that the power is only available if you earn it. This is common sense to most of us because we aren’t rich enough to get anything we want, just by buying it.

Citizenship is earned. Consumers buy. Owners buy.

When the new governor met the speaker, you had an owner/buyer meeting up with a man who spent 40 years in office. Yes, Mr. Speaker spent money campaigning to keep that office, but what incumbents have that newly elected officials don’t - is that they have worked their way into power. They earned it.

Edgar did this. He began in office at another level of government. By the time he was a governor, he still had to impress upon the incumbents around him - the ones he had to work with to form any bipartisanship - that he could earn their respect. That they could trust him.

You can’t buy that, Governor.

That is why it was so important to establish credibility during your traditional honeymoon period. Its called a honeymoon period because that is when the incumbents meet the new guys and bond. You didn’t do that. So you are missing what previous governors spent enough time doing - earning the power network, respect and ability to be a governor.

Governor Rauner is campaigning because he is buying, not earning. He is struggling because he is trying to be an owner, not a governor.

A lot of the mistrust and dislike between the governor and the General Assembly isn’t due to partisanship. It is due to just plain old fashioned, “I don’t know you”. So going into office like you believe the incumbents are the lowest form of scum, doesn’t help. It doesn’t help anyone. Believing that Illinoisans were duped into returning incumbents into office, is patronizing and disrespectful as well.

The press releases, the commercials on television, the Governor’s comments - they are not just disrespectful to the incumbents, they are disrespectful to the voters too. There is a lot of Rauner supporters who just believe anyone who isn’t on board is a freeloader, a “tax consumer”, an uneducated dupe, or a overpaid union member. They are more than that - they are your neighbors.

This is what I have been seeing. I am very disappointed in the new guy. I don’t know why he hasn’t figure this out on his own. Maybe he forgot. What I do know is that bullying, insulting, lying and treating incumbents as though they are unworthy of public support - doesn’t work.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:32 am
Excellent Brady. You say nothing and do less

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:36 am
To Senator Brady’s comment, I agree someone is going to have to get worn down. But the Speaker, by his very nature (and one of the keys to his success) is extremely patient. The Governor, coming from the world of private equity, is not. So who is more likely to get worn down?

Comment by Juice Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:36 am
Sounds like either everybody is reading Capitol Fax, or commenters here reflect what others are saying.

Comment by walker Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:36 am
A different ramp might work. After all, every IL state employee isn’t going to retire at once.

Comment by Umm like Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:40 am
Walker’s on it. Cap Fax leads the discussion on Illinois issues.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:41 am
Gov. Rauner cut funding for treatment for HIV positive kids and kids with autism, apparently in an attempt to use them for leverage for deal.

That certainly is right out of Blagojevich’s playbook (substitute campaign contributions, but still, using sick kids for leverage).

Rather than complaining about Democrats comparing Rauner to Edgar, perhaps the elder statesman should be meeting with the Gov. and advising the Gov. to stop acting like Blagojevich.

Comment by Gooner Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:43 am
==
A different ramp might work. After all, every IL state employee isn’t going to retire at once.==

It would work about as well as it did last time, and about as well as a ramp would work to let you jump over the Grand Canyon. We’ll briefly feel like we’re flying and going to make it………then reality will hit.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:45 am
Yes, Edgar and Madigan got together and cut deals … which created the pension mess that is now squeezing the life out of the state.

Something to be proud of, Edgar.

Comment by gopower Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:48 am
- JoanP -,

I only know what Edgar says in the press…

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:48 am
Here’s the most telling contrast between two GOP governors: When Edgar ran for his first term, he ran on a pledge to make the temporary income tax hike permanent, telling voters the state needed the revenue. When Rauner ran, facing a much bigger fiscal hole than Edgar, he pledged to make sure the temporary hike expired and the whole hike would be rolled back to 3% within four years. One of them told the truth about revenues.

Comment by nona Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:51 am
Alright. Enough.

Seriously, enough.

Jim Edgar owns none of his decisions as governor.

I call that the “Rauner Rule”, and although it’s named after the governor, Rauner doesn’t own that rule either.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:51 am
I see a major reason we’re having a problem is the hangup about raising taxes. We need not fear so much. California and Minnesota raised taxes and they’re doing great. Kansas, of all states, just raised taxes to bring in critical revenue.

There is workers compensation reform that was passed by the House. I wish that this would be enough to get a budget passed. I wouldn’t want my legislators to toss the state over the fiscal cliff because of reforms I can’t get right now, and Lord knows I want some reforms.

Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:54 am
There’s no reason to believe that the governor listens to anyone. His actions to date haven’t demonstrated the benefit of sound advice.

If we’re going with war metaphor, I’d suggest Kurtz as the governor’s role model.

Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:55 am
- Wordslinger -,

I’m so glad you brought your comparison up. I agree, with this addendum;

Kurtz’s persona with Sonny’s temper(?)

Lots of Col. Kurtz methodology goin’ on…

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 10:58 am
== Democrats are comparing Rauner to disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich. ==

It’s not just Democrats. Until Rauner came along, I voted GOP for every Governor since Ogilvie.

Comment by RNUG Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:03 am
== Will the State be closed on July 1st? ==

I have no idea. But I’m sticking with my October prediction before a final budget gets approved.

Comment by RNUG Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:04 am
== A different ramp might work. ==

Probably not much. If it is honest and pays the actuarially determined amount each year, then at least short term it costs the same or more than the current ramp. The main reason the original 1995 ramp worked is it was NOT actuarially based; it was it started with teaser sub-prime payments and ramped up to balloon payments at the end.

Comment by RNUG Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:06 am
Instead of earning respect Rauner is earning disrespect.

Comment by DuPage Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:11 am
The real question is what will be released by the Rauner team today at 3pm or 4pm?

Friday afternoon seems like the preferred time to lob the press releases — so what will today’s release bring?

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:12 am
++When was the last time our new governor earned something?++

I know this isn’t quite what you mean, VanillaMan, but there is a LOT of discussion about earned media by gov’s press. They rely very much on what they see in the papers as a measure for how well things are going publicly.

One thing that disappoints me about Brady is that he either hasn’t realized or won’t step into his potential as a true ILGOP leader. Even without a gubernatorial win, I think there is a lot of respect for him across the state. He would’ve been a much better mouthpiece for Rauner than Superfan Sandack.

Comment by Politix Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:14 am
VanillaMan is right on target in his response. Have we forgotten that in order to work toward a compromise the people at the table must show some degree of respect to one another. Rauner rode into Springfield thinking that he could just dictate to and bully state legislators. However, he quickly found our that they were not pushovers. There is a need to develop some respect for others in a hurry. We don’t need to see Illinois government grind to a halt just because people have big egos.

Comment by REE Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:15 am
I think Proverbs 22:8 is appropriate here:

“Whoever sows injustice will reap calamity, and the rod of his fury will fail.” ESV

Comment by RNUG Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:18 am
==But I’m sticking with my October prediction before a final budget gets approved. ==
I’m foolishly optimistic. By that, I mean mid-July.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:22 am
- Robert the Bruce - , I hope you’re right about mid-July … IMO, we might have a temporary budget by then.

Comment by RNUG Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:27 am
VanillaMan, that was a great comment. Thanks.

Comment by AJ_yooper Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:38 am
Unless ordered to not show up, come july 1 and thereafter until otherwise directed, employees show up and do their work. That way they get paid once there is a budget. If payday is missed, typically credit unions offer employees low interest bridge loans.

Comment by Langhorne Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:41 am
The “Edgar Ramp” pension law would have been more successful had the Blago team not shorted the pensions in FY06 and 07 and reset the ramp. As it stands now, the State has hit the top of the ramp, and annual pension cost increases will be less, though the absolute cost is substantial.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:45 am
Friday- Langhorne - Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:41 am:

So the employee must pay interest for their checks

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:55 am
AA, not to get too picky, because you’re right about the holidays not helping (and I believe they were ‘07 and ‘08, passed in ‘06 to get out of town before the election) but the much larger failure was the market collapse in Fiscal Years 09 and 10. And as a counter-factual (sorry) the Edgar Ramp would have proven to be much more flawed had it not been for the robust returns experienced in the mid-to-late 90s.

Comment by Juice Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 11:56 am
I’m guessing in Chicago the most noticed local story in the paper today was David Orr telling Cook County homeowners to expect their property taxes to be raised (about $90 on average in Chicago) - not because of the Chicago or Illinois budget crisis, just because their home values went up.

But the more stories like that, the fewer people are going to care about program cuts to the poor (unless they’re poor) and more about “who is trying to save my paycheck.” That’s why the Rauner ads aren’t necessarily counterproductive.

Comment by lake county democrat Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:09 pm
Actually, Juice, a law passed in 2009 allowed for “five year smoothing” of investment gains and losses for purposes of calculating State funding requirements. This significantly reduced the effect of the market collapse on FY 10 ( FY 09 had already been appropriated when the market first crashed
in Fall 2008.)
Also recall that the late 90’s boom was followed by the dot-com bubble burst, WorldCom/Enron and about two-three straight years of flat-negative equity markets.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:11 pm
AA:

You are ignoring one of the biggest flaws in the Edgar Pension Ramp.

The Declaration of Victory.

When the ramp was passed and the pension problem declared solved, everyone forgot that the ramp was shorting the pension payments, and went back to their old way of doing business.

People saw the Ramp payments as “Full Payments”, so skipping a payment this year or that year wasnt so bad, because we made our payment last year, and we will make it next year when things get better…or so we tell ourselves.

Comment by Juvenal Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:13 pm
First week of September for the budget, BTW.

Chicago’s business community will not allow another school shutdown again if it can be avoided.

Comment by Juvenal Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:14 pm
- lake county democrat -,

… right up to the point Rauner signs that revenue increase… and all 67 GOP GA members are “green”, voting for increased revenue…

… right up to THAT point, Rauner will own the “high tax” narrative.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:14 pm
Francis Ford Coppola understands the characters in Illinois politics better than I ever gave him credit for.

Comment by woohoo Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:18 pm
Why does it have to be reform why not just have a few changes and try not to do the extreme. “Why use a bulldozer when a broom will do.”

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:26 pm
Maybe this has been said before, but it seems to me the Rauner approach is primarily focused on leveraging public opinion, using his messaging operation to push the needle in his favor. Use traditional news sources, where viewership opinions are probably more well-molded, to capture the anti-Madigan sentiment. Use commercial air waves to set up a generic contrast campaign to capture more independents. As the budget impasse continues, go more negative on airwaves and begin integrating this with a polling strategy that is then sent to newspapers and other media sources. Rinse and repeat, then start holding individual legislators’ feet to the fire.

That’s just conjecture, but that’s my theory. It’s hard to “shake up Springfield” without a crisis.

Comment by Losing My Edge Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:38 pm
I think some of the Republican posts on this thread that question Governor Edgar’s statesmanship and compromise persona probably adequately reflect the thinking of Governor Rauner.

The biggest fiasco will be when and or if the Democrats give in to some of the turn around agenda items and the Governor says ok lets talk revenue. But the revenue he thinking about still requires $2 billion in cuts to the Democrat approved budget. What then folks?

As a poster indicated yesterday just about every not for profit with a state contract has been notified of a funding cut off effective July 1 if we go to shut down. But they also have been notified there is no guarantee that if they continue to provide services using any reserve funds they have during the shut down that they will be reimbursed for those services once the shut down ends. Nice.

Comment by Rod Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 12:45 pm
Rauner would probably be more successful if he channels the spirit of Bismarck rather than Wilhelm.

Comment by G'Kar Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 1:08 pm
VM said: “you are missing what previous governors spent enough time doing - earning the power network, respect and ability to be a governor.”

Add: Notwithstanding Blagojevich & Quinn.

Comment by Qui Tam Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 1:52 pm
“- G’Kar - Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 1:08 pm:

Rauner would probably be more successful if he channels the spirit of Bismarck rather than Wilhelm.”

That is an insult to Bismarck.

Rainer is NO Bismarck.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 2:01 pm
Rauner is NO Bismarck.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 2:02 pm
I agree–he is more of a Wilhelm (A point I expanded upon in a longer post that for some reason never showed up on the blog.).

Comment by G'Kar Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 2:21 pm
@ Gov. Edgar - “Edgar says it also doesn’t help when Democrats are comparing Rauner to disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich.”

I say it also doesn’t help when Rauner acts like disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

In fact, that pretty much invites said comparisons to be made.

Comment by Ghostbusters Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 2:44 pm
“- G’Kar - Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 2:21 pm:

I agree–he is more of a Wilhelm (A point I expanded upon in a longer post that for some reason never showed up on the blog.).”

True if you are referring to Wilhelm the second, Wilhelm II, then that is a great comparison. He is totally like him and I commend you for bringing that to the conversation.

I hope that you will be able to post that longer post that you lost before, it would be interesting to read and I think that I know where you are going with that but would be interested to read it and for others to see the comparison.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 2:49 pm
++“There are certain members of the General Assembly that are going to have to be worn down,” Brady said.++
The GA represents the people of IL.

Comment by Mama Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 3:02 pm
With the speculation about when a budget will be signed by the governor, why not have a pool where for $5 a reader has to guess the date and time of the announcement. Winner gets 20% and the 80% goes to Mr. Miller’s favorite charity.

Comment by Huh? Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 3:10 pm
DuPage @ 11:11:

Rauner is not “earning” disrespect, he’s actively investing in it.

Comment by Anon221 Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 3:15 pm
Not sure why people still listen to Jim Edgar. Governor 20 years ago, with a completely different legislature make-up and politics in general. Edgar would be lost in dealing with today’s legislature and the financial issues.

Comment by Apocalypse Now Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 3:33 pm
===Not sure why people still listen to Jim Edgar===

He’s been there, he keeps up on what’s going on through his Edgar Fellows program, and he’s generally a pretty smart guy.

I suppose we should just listen to you instead?

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 3:35 pm
I’d actually wish Rauner would listen to what Edgar, Jim Thompson and George Ryan may have to offer in working with the Legislature.

That would help, if Rauner would heed some advice.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 3:37 pm
I personally like Edgar however as I remember the situation he brought in Jim Reilly to negotiate with the legislature. I always thought Jim was the reason peace was made with the Speaker.

Comment by Anon 2 Friday, Jun 19, 15 @ 3:52 pm
VanillaMan,
I, too appreciate your comments, You articulated very well what a lot of my family members and I are thinking.

It is obvious that this Governor has a lot to learn about governing and being a good leader for all Illinois citizens. As you mentioned respect has to be earned; also, trust. He should keep in mind that he is governor for all citizens of Illinois–including those citizens who work for the state. Also, he and the legislators should realize that if come July 1st there is no budget this is going to hurt all citizens in both the private and public sectors along with both state and local economies

Comment by Earl Shumaker Wednesday, Jun 24, 15 @ 12:29 pm