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Crises and opportunities

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“Crisis creates opportunity,” Gov. Bruce Rauner told the Chicago Tribune editorial board in April. “Crisis creates leverage to change . . . and we’ve got to use that leverage of the crisis to force structural change.”

The “crisis” is the state’s severe fiscal problems. At Rauner’s behest, the Democratic-controlled Illinois General Assembly allowed the state’s temporary income tax to mostly expire on Jan. 1, which created a massive budget hole.

The Republican governor is refusing to negotiate on a budget fix until the Democrats agree to some of his “turnaround agenda” demands, like workers’ compensation insurance reform, a property tax freeze, legislative term limits and tort reform.

So when does the crisis begin? That’s debatable.

Does it start in the next few days, as the governor finally gets a chance to act on the budget, which the Democrats passed in May but didn’t officially begin transmitting to him until June 17?

Does it begin June 30? That’s when the Chicago Public Schools would miss a required $634 million payment to the teacher retirement plan if a pension fix continues to be caught in the crossfire between the governor and Democrats. If a budget deal isn’t reached, state spending starts grinding to a halt the next day.

Does it happen in mid-July, when the first state employee payroll can’t be met because there is no appropriations authority?

Does the crisis occur in mid-August, when public schools don’t receive their first state aid checks and many can’t open their doors?

Or has it already begun?

Rauner recently unveiled two rounds of budget cuts totaling $800 million that will run from July 1 through the summer. Those announcements set off a furor among Democratic legislators.

On June 16, Rauner launched a nearly $1 million TV advertising blitz slamming Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan for blocking his reforms.

Then again, here’s a question almost nobody is asking:

Please, click here to read the rest before commenting. Thanks.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:39 am

Comments

Agree with the article wholeheartedly. Mike Madigan has been a member of the legislature since ‘72. This is Rauner’s first public office. Veterans don’t let rookies push them around plain and simple.

Comment by Stones Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:47 am
Apparently the crisis happened when Rauner took office. For most people, everyday life involves compromises, but he doesn’t see it that way. I wonder if he bullies his wife and children?

Comment by The Colossus of Roads Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:50 am
We are in full blown crisis. If you don’t think the debt level and lack of any economic growth that could fix the debt without massive tax increases or spending cuts, you are not in touch with reality.

The fact Madigan can say the governor needs to be reasonable when he is sending over a budget that is 10% unconstitutional spending shows he has either completely lost it, or he just does not care about how his inompetence is going to hurt people.

Read this part close union folks. Madigan decided not to protect you. He put a bill on the governor’s desk so he can chose to cut unions or entitlements. My bet is Madigan and Rauner both know the chunk is coming out of the unions. Don’t blame Rauner, Blame your legislature that has made a decision to screw the working class over the non working class yet again.

Comment by the Patriot Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:51 am
It’s hard to believe Rauner was successful in business as a negotiator. If you don’t leave the other side anything but complete capitulation, how can they agree? As Rauner spins ever more out of control, he gives more cover to anyone says no to him. Maybe even some GOP when constituents start calling?

Comment by Anono Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:56 am
I find myself asking “What is Plan B?”

I guess another issue of expecting Mike Madigan taking what Bruce Rauner is doing and folding his tent seems beyond far fetched.

The biggest “mistake” in this Rauner leverage/crisis game is the premise that the Legislative and Executive are not Co-Equal. It’s a fatal flaw in driving results and leveraging compromise.

When Quinn stopped paychecks, in the most obstructively ignorant way to leverage a co-equal governmental partner, that gamble made the personal override the actual, and made it clear that Quinn misunderstood the roles of co-equal partners in the task of governing.

Rauner’s Ads, which by themselves are like Sonny putting 100 buttons on the street, with no marching orders of consequence, but I’m witnessing a personal grudge-match being played out during the breaks of “Friends” reruns.

These Ads are “Exhibit A” in showing Rauner’s ignorance in the idea/ideal of Co-Equal governing.

No way a co-equal partner gives in to a personal punishment of actually understanding co-equal governing.

Let’s not forget; three more budgets after this too. Ugh.

“Who” looks at this Governor as a consensus builder? “Who?”

“Bruce Rauner was sent there to shake things up! I cheer Bruce Rauner, you go Bruce. You show them!”

Ok. Now, Rauner owns the mess, ’cause you cheer, and further, we all are no closer to solving… anything.

I wonder what a “Plan B” might look like. Here’s the rub Rauner won’t like;

The posturing has put into place that any deal not seen as victory, is that “failure”? Is finally understanding the co-equal governing, is that lookin’ weak to the Raunerites? Signing a budget with enhanced revenue, after calling your targeted Denocratic legislators “taxers”, his will Rauner reconcile signing that revenue, after playing the “Thompson Pivot” months and months ago?

“Plan A” created crisis, will “Plan B” solve the Rauner-created issues?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:01 am
Patriot - I am a union folk, and I don’t see your reasoning. Rauner sent a phony budget with a big unconstitutional hole in it. Madigan said fine and sent a phony bill right back at him. This is about who wears the jacket for saying the obvious - the tax cut has got to be reversed.

Comment by Anono Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:04 am
Seems odd to me that in our political system, one person defines the ‘crisis’ and then decides the ’solution, while acceptin’ little if any input from anyone else. Seems to be very common these days….

Comment by Slippin' Jimmy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:06 am
My guess is there is no Plan B. Rauner’s actions, in my opinion, indicate he’s playing for it all. No compromise. He’s got nothing to lose. He has disdain for Democrats in general and all government employees except his own hand-picked minions. I’m no fan of MM but MM’s got to fight all of Rauner’s turn around items or he loses everything.

Comment by Nucky Thompson Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:14 am
==lack of any economic growth==

I don’t think the data supports that.

==He put a bill on the governor’s desk so he can chose to cut unions or entitlements.==

Or the Governor could agree to raise revenue.

==My bet is Madigan and Rauner both know the chunk is coming out of the unions.==

Define what the chunk is, and how it’s going to come out of the unions, bearing in mind that the unions will have to agree to any new contract and that the Supreme Court was pretty clear on pensions.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:15 am
We’re in “Ground Hog Day” mode here now.

Comment by A guy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:21 am
==lack of any economic growth==

Wrong. Please go here: https://capitolfax.com/2015/06/19/who-woulda-thunk-it/

Comment by Roamin' Numeral Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:24 am
“The fact Rauner can say the Speaker needs to be reasonable when he submitted a budget that is 10% unconstitutional spending shows Rauner is completely oblivious of math, or he just does not care about how his incompetence is going to hurt people.”

Goes both ways here, - the Patriot -

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:26 am
The tax cut doesn’t have to be fully reversed however, and it could be set up to expire again in the future. Have the combatants, er, parties already got a tacit deal, with the blame part still unresolved? I wouldn’t be surprised.
As in that European thriller, the Greek debt crisis, the sides probably aren’t that far apart on the numbers.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:27 am
The Governor has been miscalculating since he took office. This has caused him to permanently lose political power. He couldn’t get elected today.

Here’s a few reasons why:
1.) Rauner has no governing credibility. He hasn’t earned his way into office, he bought it. He had to establish working relationships within Springfield. Its simply shocking how ignorant Rauner has shown himself to be in understanding that a government is not something to buy and run like an owner. This man has exposed himself as someone who either never took a civics class, or has zero respect for democracy or our constitution, other than a roadmap into elected office.

2.) Rauner has repeatedly shown an unwillingness to fix the crisis, as would most seasoned governors of any state. The Governor has turned down every opportunity to publically demonstrate that he can be worked with. For six months, Bruce Rauner has created this crisis and has ramped it up. Governors are supposed to resolve conflicts, not create them, yet this seems to be how Rauner believes things are done. He keeps pointing fingers at Illinois incumbents, somehow believing that they can be blamed for his refusal to compromise with him.

3.) His RTW fiasco. New governors get a honeymoon and a halo upon entering office. The honeymoon is the introductory phase, when incumbents meet and greet the new administration and sniff tails. The halo is the electoral mandate voters give them. Rauner destroyed both. He kept campaigning after his inauguration, which mean there would be no “cease-fire” in politicking during the honeymoon period.

Worse - Rauner destroyed his mandate by testing it. He went town to town, county to county, city to city, promoting a “Right To Work (For Less)” proposal. It wasn’t anything to vote for, even if one advocated it. It had no binding of law. It lost nearly everywhere it went. From bedrock Democratic constituencies which torched the Governor like he was peddling Ebola, to bedrock Republican constituencies which couldn’t run fast enough away from him. Yet, the Governor wouldn’t quit until he bled out all of the mandate from the November election.

Rauner voluntarily ruined his honeymoon and mandate, he voluntarily made each fiscal and constitutional crisis worse, and he displayed a complete lack of understanding of the office. He has made it hard to be his friend, and has made it easy to be his enemy.

Bruce Rauner has had the worst start of any gubernatorial administration, I’ve ever witnessed. He makes Blagojevich look professional. Rauner is a disaster as governor. Only those who thoroughly hate government could be applauding this gubernatorial anarchist.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:28 am
It’s not really a crisis until the average Joe is worrying about it…how the average Joe handles being brought in on the crisis (who he blames and what he does in the private sector and at home to protect himself financially) is where the battle will be fought.

Comment by Bedbug Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:29 am
The legislature won’t budge, nor should they while Rauner attempts to use coercive measures to get his way. Rich, your comments on Madigan and his reaction to Rauners threats make perfect sense. Until the coercive measures are removed, Madigan won’t reward bad behavior. One other thing. If your ideas depend on the exploitation of a crisis of your own making in order to get people to consider them, you ought to re-consider them extreme, as Madigan is correctly labeling them.

Comment by PublicServant Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:29 am
Some of the Crain’s blog commenters seem to have different views than Capitol Fax.

Comment by Soccertease Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:29 am
It is time when both sides quit talking to the media and start talking to each other. They remind me of an estranged couple, each talking to their friends and not each other. In a marriage on the rocks it is the little people–the kids–who get hurt, in Illinois it is the little people– the everyday working stiff– who is going to get hurt.

Comment by the old man Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:31 am
For the love God, of all days to not be able to read Rich’s article due to exceeding my free looks at Crains. I am assuming that the union “chunk” came from his article. Could Arsenal,OW,someone, give me the upshot. I’d really appreciate it. From what I am suspecting is that Rauner/Madigan sold us (AFSCME) down the river. Correct?

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:37 am
==don’t blame Rauner==

O please!

Comment by Hedley Lamarr Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:41 am
“- Soccertease - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:29 am:

Some of the Crain’s blog commenters seem to have different views than Capitol Fax.”

This is the part I think escapes many here, and leads avid readers to believe the citizens of this state all hate Rauner - I will say it again, they hate Madigan more, but he is well protected in his own district. How do you take the guy down a peg when he has entrenched himself in his district? That’s the whole ball game, folks. From my point of view, Rauner obviously has determined he needs leverage, and is trying to take advantage of it. Don’t underestimate the number of people who will stick with his plan, even if they don’t like him, just to get excessive power out of MJMs hands. It absolutely sucks that there are going to be many victims and collateral damage, but I think enough people in this state are willing to go through it to bring some balance back to the “co-equal” branches. That’s where I think you underestimate, OW - the number of people who see the legislature as having more power than the Govs office, not vice versa, in what is supposed to be a co-equal situation.

Comment by Kodachrome Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:01 am
===That’s where I think you underestimate, OW - the number of people who see the legislature as having more power than the Govs office, not vice versa, in what is supposed to be a co-equal situation.===

That may be the perception, but the governing reality is what Rauner needs to realize. There’s the disconnect in the way Rauner may “think” this is helping.

Unless the Illinois Constitution magically makes the Executive the “Poobah” of all, and diminishes the Legislative to “Mid-Level executives” in a business type structure, the perception makes the governing reality, and Rauner’s own reality even more elusive.

Like I said, “Yeah Bruce! You show him, ‘boo’ Madigan!”

It’s 71 now. It’s 36 now. That’s not changing no matter who wins a perceived “likability” pageant that doesn’t move co-equal governing forward…

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:10 am
===Rauner obviously has determined he needs leverage===

Yes, his leverage seems to be severe cuts to the poorest and neediest among us in an attempt to coerce the legislature to abandon unions and the middle class.

Comment by PublicServant Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:11 am
If Rauner keeps on his current path, it will be because his highest priorities are the Turnaround Agenda items. He will sacrifice both short term budget agreements and a smoothly operating government to achieve those long term goals.

We don’t appear any further in solving that fundamental impasse, than we were in February.

The questions:

What will be sufficient for Rauner to be able to claim some progress on the Turnaround, since few of those items could actually be done this year anyway, and their impacts are mostly years away?

When will the operating needs of the government force everybody’s hand, and begin to focus the shortcomings more on the Governor? This will be delayed somewhat by the anti-Madigan ad campaign, but not past August IMHO.

Comment by walker Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:18 am
===Unless the Illinois Constitution magically makes the Executive the “Poobah” of all===

Doesn’t have to. The budget responsibility is already being pinned on the GA. Everyone knows that they had the ability to increase revenue or cut budget. The GA punted the ball and now the Poobah gets to make the play. The difference with this governor versus previous governors, is that Rauner isn’t concerned with the popularity numbers. That makes it very difficult for the GA to “Leverage” Rauner.

In business people don’t like you and that’s just the cost of doing business.

In politics people don’t like you and you might lose your seat in the next election.

Like you say OW, “perception makes the governing reality.”

Comment by Pete Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:18 am
At this point, the only plan I see from the governor is avoiding any discussion of the budget whatsoever.

He proposed an FY16 plan last February that was short $3 billion plus. It hasn’t been referenced since. Kind of a big part of,the job.

The “crisis creates opportunity” is just idiotic spin. The governor isn’t trying to accomplish anything. He’s just avoiding the tough choices of doing his job.

For crying out loud, he hasn’t done anything yet except put out a TV spot five months into the gig. Get with it, already.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:21 am
===The difference with this governor versus previous governors, is that Rauner isn’t concerned with the popularity numbers. That makes it very difficult for the GA to “Leverage” Rauner.===

The leverage the GA has, is “sitting on their hands”

Governors need budgets. Perceived or not, the Constitution, and the mere fact… that state agencies run out of the Executive… seems to be lost on people that Rauner won’t wear the jacket for the “Rauner Cuts”.

Governors own.

- Pete -,

How can anyone “cheer” Rauner for doing “something”, and then in the very same breath say Rauner owns none of his decisions?

That makes no sense.

“I’m cheering for Rauner doing, but not owning, what he’s doing.”

Lemming thinking.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:24 am
VanillaMan @ 9:28am Completely on point. The Governor needs to stop campaigning and start governing. His apparent inability and or unwillingness to compromise doesn’t serve Illinois well. Republicans Thompson, Edgar and Ryan proved that civility, moderation and compromise works to the benefit of all.

Comment by anon Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:27 am
Stupid phone; corrected…

“… the perception makes the governing reality, and Rauner’s own reality, even more elusive.”

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:28 am
It pains me to see that these 2 men are acting like they are in grammar school. Put aside the differences, work on the budget together and figure out some type of fix. Those of them that have the money are not affected but those who are working for them will be due to the fact if they don’t get paid; their bills don’t get paid and then they can lose everything first it will be electric & gas gets cut off then they fall behind on their mortgages- be put in foreclosure depending on how long they don’t get paid for that their money gets depleted that was saved. Then what do a lay off which isn’t good. They need to put themselves in a position of understanding with those who are in the low/medium income bracket. This damages lives. It’s no longer a game. Put the who’s better to the side and think of the people not either’s pockets. There are no quick fixes for the deficits, but a move in the right direction which takes time can & will benefit all.

Comment by anonymous Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:35 am
Honeybear, I had the same problem, but just now typed in my browser, “Crain’s Chicago Business, Rich Miller (and then pasted the first pgf of Rich’s post). Got directly to the article.

Comment by Bystander Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:36 am
==The difference with this governor versus previous governors, is that Rauner isn’t concerned with the popularity numbers. ==

Of course he is, he’s running $1 million in ads just to goose his numbers. Besides, he’s not an idiot, he knows that unpopular Governors don’t get anything done.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:37 am
==He couldn’t get elected today.==

It would depend on the opponent of course, but Quinn won re-election with lower numbers (based on the last ones I saw, which are quite old, I suppose) and less money.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:39 am
- Pete -,

How can anyone “cheer” Rauner for doing “something”, and then in the very same breath say Rauner owns none of his decisions?

=============================================
None of his ‘decisions’ have come to pass for him to ‘own’ them.

Rauner was accountable and took the flack for his paid staff and what budgets they are placed under. What do you think he is not ‘owning’? From my perspective the Governor has been very clear as to his vision and desire to shake-up Springfield.

I think there might be a misconception when the Executive Leader is now pressing the GA Leaders to ‘own’ their decisions. That’s why there is a commercial blitz on the Leader of the House. We have generations of bad governance in Illinois. That spreads between both the Mansion and the GA floor.

It’s like any change. You first have to acknowledge there is a problem and then be willing to change. I’m still waiting for the GA to step up and acknowledge we have a problem beyond a shortage of revenue. I’m also waiting for the GA to step up and be willing to change (i.e. not send a deficit budget to the Gov.)

I think most people in Illinois agree, that before the budget gets to the Gov. for a signature all the red should be eliminated.

Comment by Pete Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:40 am
Huh, I’d never thought of that before…that it was Rauner’s request to let the tax increase expire that created the budget hole in the first place. That could become a rather large miscalculation indeed.

Comment by Losing My Edge Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:41 am
The crisis began the night Rauner was elected governor. I have never seen so many freaked out by the presence of one man in Springfield. He was hated by the “status quo” in Springfield from that moment on forward. The hatred since then has grown, some as a result of Rauner’s actions.

Get over it. Work with the man. You have another 3-1/2 years to work with him.

Those blunt facts haven’t sunken in yet.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:43 am
- Honeybear - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:37 am:

See above.

Comment by Bystander Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:44 am
- Pete -

SECTION 2. STATE FINANCE
(a) The Governor shall prepare and submit to the General
Assembly, at a time prescribed by law, a State budget for the
ensuing fiscal year. The budget shall set forth the estimated
balance of funds available for appropriation at the beginning
of the fiscal year, the estimated receipts, and a plan for
expenditures and obligations during the fiscal year of every
department, authority, public corporation and quasi-public
corporation of the State, every State college and university,
and every other public agency created by the State, but not
of units of local government or school districts. The budget
shall also set forth the indebtedness and contingent
liabilities of the State and such other information as may be
required by law. Proposed expenditures shall not exceed funds
estimated to be available for the fiscal year as shown in the
budget.
(b) The General Assembly by law shall make
appropriations for all expenditures of public funds by the
State. Appropriations for a fiscal year shall not exceed
funds estimated by the General Assembly to be available
during that year.
(Source: Illinois Constitution.)

You can spin it 10 ways to Sunday.

Governors need budgets. They own budgets.

The governing ain’t changin’ no matter the Ads trying to make a case.

The more Rauner tries to disown the budget, and choices, and tries to blame the GA, the farther and farther Rauner will get from reaching 71 and 36.

That’s not “leverage”, that’s actual governing.

If Rauner is too busy campaigning to know this, no one can help the Rauner Crew, abd Rauner himself.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:48 am
–…before the budget gets to the Gov. for a signature all the red should be eliminated.–

What in the world are you talking about? Since February, when has the governor talked about the budget? It’s not a priority for him.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:49 am
- Wordslinger - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:49 am:

–…before the budget gets to the Gov. for a signature all the red should be eliminated.–
==============================================

http://www3.illinois.gov/PressReleases/ShowPressRelease.cfm?SubjectID=3&RecNum=13115

Comment by Pete Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:52 am
That June 2nd press release is as close to ownership as I’ve ever seen from an Illinois Governor.

What more do you need?

Comment by Pete Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:53 am
- Pete -,

Those are the “Rauner Cuts”, cuts Bruce Rauner put in a release, for a phantom budget yet to his desk.

Further, Rauner, issuing phantom cuts to a phantom, non-existing budget, is blaming the GA, for Rauner’s own decisions.

Just utterly laughable.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:54 am
Um, same release you cite;

===While the Administration is committed to managing the Madigan-Cullerton budget responsibly, because their budget includes no reforms, the options available to the Administration are limited.===

LOL.

“Who” is to blame? “Who’s” budget?

C’mon, please read.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:56 am
Thanks for the workaround bystander! My apologies for the “chunk” error. I thought it was from his article. Serves my right for skimming posts.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:00 am
I agree with OW regarding Rauner.

I don’t always agree with OW but when I do, it is because he has it right on target.

Comment by The Real Pete Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:01 am
Louis, you’re a laugh riot. The “blunt facts” are that citizen Rauener was one of the biggest bankrollers of the “status quo.”

He ran as a phony outsider and feels the need to continue the act for a while longer before he gets down to the job.

He’s billions short, dude, Everything else is just Bad Opera.

Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:02 am
Rauner asked that the temporary income tax not be extended. He claimed he could make up the difference in his budget; he didn’t. Rauner owns the budget shortfall … period. It’s just that simple.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:38 am
I have to subscribe to Crains to find out the one question no one is asking… Boo-urns. Lol

Comment by MurMan Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:40 am
Maybe Rauner’s people have a plan B, but I doubt they’ll convince him to act on it. Rauner’s obsessive focus on his Turnaround, on “winning” this fight, is all he’ll acknowledge.

Comment by Wensicia Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:59 am
== I have to subscribe to Crains to find out the one question no one is asking… Boo-urns. ==

You never heard of anonymous web site browsing or just using a different computer / access device?

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:05 pm
Plan A: Shut down the state for a while, then trade tax increases for turnaround agenda
Plan B: Shut down the state for a while, then enact severe draconian cuts to balance budget with no new revenue.

Not saying I agree with the plans, but that seems to be where he’s headed and I don’t see how the legislature can avoid choosing one or the other.

Comment by Careful what you wish for... Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:16 pm
I think Rauner is going for the nuclear option and has been from the beginning.
1) Shutdown State Government
2) Nuclear Cuts
3) Massive layoffs of State workers
4) Strike/Lockout resolved by arbitrated contract.

I think the damage done will scar our state for decades.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:41 pm
- Honeybear -,

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:44 pm
I’m a state worker represented by AFSCME… And a single parent spending a huge chunk of my paycheck on daycare. Daycare needs a week’s notice in order to get a discounted rate for when the kid isn’t attending. If you were me, would you give them a heads up about the state situation? How likely is it that I’ll be at work July 1? So stressful! We haven’t heard a thing from my agency.

Comment by Anon Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:56 pm
@- Anon - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 12:56 pm:

I went through this a lot when I was temping for the state. My daycare was pretty good about understanding my employment could end with no notice. I just had to explain the situation to them ahead of time. Hopefully yours will be on that level. My child is going to the Y this summer and I’ve mentioned it a few times to them, so hopefully they’ll be good about it as well.

Comment by HangingOn Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 1:37 pm
RNUG, not sure how those work no. I’m on an iPhone. Clicked the link in the post, and Crains wants me to login or subscribe. I’ll google those though

Comment by MurMan Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 1:45 pm
The “nuclear option” will not address the state’s current lawful obligations nor will it result in any savings. Under a hypothetical “nuclear option”, Tier 1 employees will exercise bumping rights and remain. Federally mandated maintenance of effort (MOE) clauses will apply to services related to the provision of Medicaid, Food Stamps, Child Welfare, TANF cash, unemployment insurance and many others. The governor cannot unilaterally direct the State to refuse to provide these services (at least legally) nor can he privatize them without federal approval. Privatization attempts will be subject to federal litigation (notably, as pertaining to MOE for Title XIX Medicaid funding) and likely litigation from AFSCME pertaining to unfair labor practices. A potential shutdown would represent a very poor opportunity cost to the State of IL relative to the cost of litigation and costs related to processing a future backlog of work in many agencies. As a former GOP precinct committeeman, I’m hoping that the once proud IL GOP can become relevant again, Mr. Rauner and Tea Party agenda is not the answer, moderation and compromise are needed.

Comment by anon Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 1:57 pm
Anon 12:56 I can’t imagine that stress. Here’s the honest upshot, who knows what is going to happen. But regardless of what happens I would take the opportunity to strengthen your support network. Talk about the coming insecurity with your friends and family, figure out what your needs might be, and communicate those needs to those who support you. Talk to your daycare center and explain advanced notice might not be possible and ask for them to waive their policy in case of shutdown/lockout or strike. Most creditors have policies in place in case of labor disputes. The key is communication! If you alert them that you cannot pay or make a deadline, they greatly appreciate it when you communicate that and make arrangements. AND FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, don’t be embarrassed or ashamed. This is not your fault. Be proud of your service to Illinois and know that 40,000 others are with you in this crisis. Make sure that you’ve got your AFSCME stewards number or email address to keep up with what is happening. Hey and remember, your a single parent! You can handle anything! Single parenting is WAY more difficult than a little labor dispute, seriously! It might get hairy for a bit but we’ll weather it. Sorry if I scared you. I’m worried about it too. Both my wife and I work for the State. I’ve already talked too my mother in law about helping us out financially if it goes on to long. Take control of your fear by preparing and getting involved in advocating on behalf of your fellow workers!

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 2:07 pm
Anon:1:57 I agree with you, but I honestly think that these facts will not stop the governor from “pressing the button” on a nuclear assault. I believe he feels this is a fight to the death, Thunderdome, this is, “two men enter, one man leaves”. I’m a newer employee so I’ll get bumped. Problem with it is that there has been a total brain drain. Our office has had 8 seasoned caseworkers retire in the last two months. In otherwords layoffs will be disasterous for the state. Our payroll is at record lows for body count and layoffs I think would put us in a death spiral. But that’s not going to stop them. Just today DHS appointed an acting HR head. Obviously there is going to be a need for that position to be filled. Again, I think this has been Rauners plan all along. I think he’s going to nosedive the plane thinking that his people will survive the crash.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 2:53 pm
Honeybear @ 2:53 First of all, God bless you for your reply to Anon @ 12:56; very well said. Layoffs and or a State shutdown would benefit nobody albeit such would no doubt be popular with some. This governor probably doesn’t appreciate what HSC’s in DHS are up against in terms of caseload sizes and the number of experienced staff it has lost during the last few years. The work being done by HSCs with DHS probably “epitomizes” what this governor loathes most; providing benefits to those who are poor, aged, blind and disabled. A measure of our society is how we take care of those least able to do so themselves. I’ve been a State employee since Gov Thompson, worked in Merit Comp and AFSCME titles. Morale among the State workforce today is as low as I can ever remember, even eclipsing the worst days under Gov. Blagojevich. Good luck to you and your wife.

Comment by anon Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 3:35 pm
Is AFSCME expecting a lay- off or a lock- out? There is no bumping during a lock- out. During a lock- out everyone is locked out except management. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Comment by Mama Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:23 pm
- Mama - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:23 pm:

We will all feel the pain which includes us family members of State Workers. The question is if State Workers will be working July 1st or July 6th or 7th.

It might take Rauner a few days to lock the State up but probably not more then a week because he has “ck” and the IPI to help.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:29 pm
After the lock-out/ lay-off, I think Rauner will rehire state workers willing come back to work as independent contractors. Rauner wants to take away state workers’ benefits, and I think this is how he will do it.

Comment by Mama Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:38 pm
- Mama -, that might lead to a class action lawsuit that would reflect very poorly, and would face the strong possibly of an embarrassing loss by the Administration.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:42 pm
- Mama - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:38 pm:

True

You are on to something.

He has plans but we will not know until it is too late.

I am very carefully reading everything RNUG writes and making sure that my wife is aware of all things RNUG. She might have to look for a another job just to keep her health sand sanity.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:46 pm
Mama, the current contract remains in effect until impasse. So your scenario will not happen until the gloves come off so to speak.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:55 pm
I’m trying to figure out the timelines now. But I’m thinking August.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:56 pm
I’m also thinking that the No Strike/Lockout bill will fail to override the veto. Union is applying pressure now on legislators.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:59 pm
== Is AFSCME expecting a lay- off or a lock- out? There is no bumping during a lock- out. During a lock- out everyone is locked out except management. Correct me if I’m wrong. ==

If Rauner initiates a lock-out, it’s going to be interesting to see how he addresses all of the federal programs that are considered “essential” under layoff / no budget conditions. The feds are, essentially, paying the state to run those programs. We’ll be off in uncharted waters if Rauner shuts / tries to shut all those programs down.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:16 pm
- Anonymous - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 4:46 pm:

You may have to suffer withdrawal for a few days; I’m going to be traveling and working at one of my hobbies the rest of the week. Not sure if I’ll have much time to check in here, and if I do it will probably be late at night.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:19 pm
- RNUG - Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:19 pm:

Thanks for the heads up RNUG. Enjoy your travels.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:24 pm
He may save the essential program jobs, or get the feds permission to shut them down. I doubt that the US Congress cares if he shuts them down.

Comment by Mama Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:40 pm
Yes, the current contract remains in effect until impasse. It is my understanding that the impasse will occur on July 1st if there is no agreement at that time.

Comment by Mama Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 8:43 pm