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It could’ve been much worse

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

Gov. Bruce Rauner’s much-anticipated TV ad isn’t as over-the-top negative as we might have thought it would be.

“Exactly,” was the response from a Rauner official I spoke with after watching the ad and making that above observation about its somewhat muted tone.

“There’s plenty of time for that if it’s necessary,” the official added.

In case you haven’t seen it, the governor’s ad, above, begins with shots of downtown Chicago, then moves to a photo of Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan.

“Illinois is at a crossroads,” says the announcer. “Mike Madigan and the politicians he controls refuse to change.

“They’re saying no to spending discipline, no to job-creating economic reforms, no to term limits.

“All they want is higher taxes. Again.”

At the 19-second mark, Rauner appears in the ad. “Change in Springfield isn’t easy,” he says in voiceover as he’s seen talking with a couple of male workers. “But you didn’t send me here to do what’s easy,” he says as he’s seen talking to a woman standing at a counter near some flowers.

“With your help,” the governor says to the camera as the phrase “Join Bruce Rauner” appears next to his head, “I’m gonna keep fightin’ to grow our economy and fix our broken state government.”

The ad has played in most media markets in the state on both broadcast and cable stations, including the expensive St. Louis area, where Rauner is spending at least $100,000, according to a firm that tracks these things. Chicago, Rockford, Champaign/Springfield/Decatur, Peoria and the Quad Cities have been targeted.

An aide to the House speaker who saw the ad before I did said he didn’t think it would make much of a difference. After a buildup in expectations, he said, the ad failed to bite much at all, and he even laughed it off.

But a top Senate Democratic operative expressed sincere relief that the spot wasn’t so harsh that it would’ve destroyed any possibility of an agreement on the budget and the governor’s “turnaround agenda” issues, like workers’ compensation reform, a property tax freeze and tort reform.

They’re both probably right.

Rauner’s ad does not ask Illinoisans to do anything specific except support him. There are no phone numbers to call, no other actions to take. He could’ve flooded Madigan’s Statehouse switchboard if he’d chosen to do so, but he didn’t.

So on the one hand, you gotta wonder what exactly the governor hopes to accomplish with this ad, except to “punish” Madigan a bit and demonstrate his willingness to spend a million bucks a week on whatever the heck he wants.

On the other hand, those who still think a deal can get done ought to be relieved that the governor showed a little restraint in his march to war and didn’t go at Madigan with both barrels blazing.

And, by being somewhat reasonable and coming in under expectations, the ad likely will avoid any immediate public backlash. By speechifying across the state for months instead of holing up in Springfield, the governor has opened himself up to potential criticism that he ought to dump the rhetoric and get to work on solving actual problems. He’ll still have to deal with an angry and dismissive Madigan, however. That’s not going to be any easier now.

Former Republican Gov. Jim Edgar has been pleading for calm lately and asking that both sides avoid personal insults.

“The conversations they’re having aren’t the problem,” Edgar told Springfield’s WICS-TV. “Sometimes it’s what they’re saying when they aren’t together that’s the problem. It seems to be Madigan compares (Rauner) to Blagojevich and (Rauner) makes reference to their character. All that will happen in the heat of battle, but I think everyone needs to know we’re at the point if we’re going to get things done we need to back off of that,” the former governor said.

Regarding the new ad, Edgar said he was worried that Rauner’s TV buy would do more harm than good. “I fear that they could cause the Democrats not to come to the table, but maybe to dig in more,” Edgar told Statehouse reporters.

Rauner has all but claimed that Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton are corrupt, Madigan has compared Rauner to the imprisoned Rod Blagojevich, Rauner’s staff has pointedly insulted the House Democrats for engaging in a “sexist smear” of a Rauner appointee, etc., etc., etc.

So it’s little wonder that Edgar is worried that this thing could easily go off the rails, if it hasn’t already.

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:20 am

Comments

It would be helpful if governed more and produced TV ads less. That’s what he was ELECTED to do.

Comment by Jack Stephens Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:33 am
So the ad campaign was basically a warning shot? The overriding thought I keep coming back to is that Rauner hasn’t come to grips just yet with the fact that he’s not the majority shareholder and the state is not a portfolio company of GTCR. In other words, this is not a situation where he can just dictate his terms, or make threats to get his way.

Comment by slow down Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:37 am
The ad showed that the new Governor is a bully who believes he can buy his way around democracy, compromise and negotiations. He is like the new kid in class who felt it necessary to show his fist at the teacher’s pet.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:42 am
Rich, both columns you have as Posts today are prime examples of why what you do, and how you go about your business, is unmatched. Great stuff.

To the Post,

Ok, Rauner Crew…

You ran Ads, “benign”, but Ads all the same, and the Ads aren’t saying anything but that “Bruce is a hero, ‘boo’ Mike Madigan”…

Ok, you did it. Smile, back-slap everyone.

Now what? What are you, as a Crew, and Rauner as governor, what is the Rauner Administration going to do as an End Game.

The Ads have a feel, now after days of air, of a child throwing a tantrum, but in the midst of crying, the child says, loudly over tears; “I’m a good boy!!!”. Ugh.

Now what? The Ads ran, now what? Where is the movement to get simething done? “Who” will do that? “Who” will work with the Democratic leaders and leadership to hammer (and shake?) out a deal? The Owl Sandack?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:44 am
After reading the column this weekend, and combined with the MOU issued by CMS regarding employee contracts last week, I too see a less extreme response by Rauner than there could have been. It could be the calm before the storm, or it could be that he is learning.

Comment by AC Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:54 am
Benign.

Comment by Ottawa Phil Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:56 am
Oswego, you keep focusing on the guv, but I have the exact same question for Madigan and Cullterton. Rauner put revenue squarely on the table, among other things. So…what is the Democrats end game?

Comment by Liandro Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:56 am
Aside from the content or tone of the Governors ad’s, he does not have a friendly or pleasing look, which right or wrong, makes a huge difference in how one accepts or ignores the message. His visage always appears to me as one posed to strike.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 9:58 am
- Liandro -,

Explain to me that when the legislative process of running Rauner’s Agenda, less the Union poison pills, Rauner “requires” the “yellow” button be pushed?

(Tips hat to - RNUG - on that, BTW)

So, is it that Cullerton and Madigan aren’t “running” Rauner Agenda pieces, it is it Rauner has to have Union busting language or its a deal breaker?

Smoking out the anti-Union language, and the continual response of the Rauner Administration and the GOP GA should give a clear picture as to what is at play in the Cullerton/Madigan legislative responses.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:03 am
“…or is it… “

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:04 am
In honor of Jurassic World, let’s go back to Jurassic Park.

Richard Hammond lamented the first “showing” of the park. “Two no-shows and one sick triceratops.” Ray Arnold puffed on his cigarette and replied, “It could’ve been worse, John. A lot worse.”

Foreshadowing doesn’t just happen in literature, TV scrips and screenplays. It happens in real life.

Not sure if this is the beginning or the end of the media blitz. I wouldn’t be surprised by either outcome. I’m bracing for more but keeping even money on nothing else.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:13 am
“Rauner put revenue squarely on the table” No he didn’t. He said he would “consider” tax increases *if* his Turnbacktheclock Agenda is passed, take it or leave it. That’s hardly “squarely” on the table.

Comment by Skeptic Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:13 am
According to a State Rep (D) that I talked to, Ruaner’s “turnaround agenda” is indeed the issue. Even he, however, said Rauner had pulled out everything but two items at one point, while still keeping revenue on the table.

I doubt even he knows what his leadership is shooting for on end game. I certainly don’t. My point is that it has every bit as much influence on the process at the guv’s positions.

You can say his agenda is “poison pills”, but that implies that these items are only designed to kill the bills. My understanding is some of these are actual agenda items he wants compromise on. I certainly could be wrong and he never intends to pass any them.

As for revenue on the table…that is coming from a D state rep. I suppose he could be wrong. I take everything with a grain of salt.

Comment by Liandro Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:20 am
@Skeptic,

I guess we’re getting into semantics on what “squarely” means. It’s certainly part of the discussion, and it’s clearly on the table.

I would agree that what it takes to “get there” is a huge, open question. Which is exactly why each side’s end game is the question, no?

Comment by Liandro Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:25 am
==Ruaner’s “turnaround agenda” is indeed the issue==

Of course it’s the issue; every branch of it is designed to hurt the Democratic Party in some way, and every time the General Assembly nonetheless takes up one branch, the Governor and his solons scream about how phony the whole process is and demand yellow lights. The Governor is asking the Dems to sign their own arrest warrants, and won’t even provide a Republican with a pen.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:29 am
And in return, all the Governor is promising is that he’ll think about the revenue needed to balance his own phony budget, written after he already asked the GA to cut revenue.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:30 am
On YouTube:

Turnaround Illinois - Crossroads

by Turnaround Illinois • 8,403 views

And some very offensive posts at that YouTube site. Really turning out quality there!

Comment by Anon221 Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:31 am
===No he didn’t.===

Yes, he did. A percentage point on the income tax. He was very specific.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:36 am
So in return, all the governor is promising is exactly what the D’s want?

What exactly are you asking for here? That the guv approve and sign off on a tax hike, then ask for anything he wants afterwards?

Comment by Liandro Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:37 am
- Liandro -,

Both the Democratic passed budget AND Rauner’s own “phony” budget, they both need $3 billion in revenue.

Both.

It’s like Rauner forgets this “tiny” similarity.

It’s not like the GA is “holding hostage” a balanced budget proposed by Rauner…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:41 am
==So in return, all the governor is promising is exactly what the D’s want?==

Go ahead and ask the Dems in the GA how many of them *want* higher taxes. They sure didn’t move on it when they had a friendly Guv and the protection of a lame-duck session.

Look, the Governor asked that taxes be lowered. The Governor submitted an out-of-balance bill. If the Governor ever proceeds to fix those problems, it won’t be a concession to the Dems.

==What exactly are you asking for here?==

I’m not asking for anything, I’m just pointing out that when you’re negotiating, you’re not going to get anywhere by saying, “Okay, you guys just completely humiliate yourselves, and in exchange, I’ll let you fix the problems I’ve created.”

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:45 am
It could’ve been worse, but it doesn’t really move the ball forward for an FY 16 budget.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 10:53 am
To the post —

None of this makes a lot of sense unless it’s part of a long-term ALEC-style plan to flip the state legislature over the next couple of election cycles and turn Illinois into a red state with redistricting, voter suppression laws, etc. If that’s the case, then Rauner’s “all they want is higher taxes” ad could be the first shot in a very long war of attrition.

Comment by olddog Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:07 am
Is the apparent “deal” of 3.5B new taxes, plus Local Tax Freeze, and Workers’ Comp/Tort Reform still seriously “on the table?”

Or have we devolved to continuing demands for right to work, prevailing wage relief, DCEO privatization, Term limits, Remapping, et al? The Governor has pushed for all of those items publicly since the offer was apparently there and gone within 48 hours. While the Dems have moved from 3.5 to 4B.

Hard to tell which way they’re moving. It looks to be further apart. Hope to be surprised.

Comment by walker Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 11:07 am
Does anyone think the average voter is paying attention? They don’t follow Springfield politics… Or care about campaign ads.

Comment by Who cares? Monday, Jun 22, 15 @ 2:55 pm